June 20 - DOW -353

Sometimes you can get a great short even when the market is already down a lot.


You wait for all the signals to line up.

If AD is rising... then wait it out -- you'll eventually see the synchronicty in the form of a TL or double top/bottom... alerting you to the edges (and hence, where to place a stop).

Midday is nearly always a difficulty choppy time.

The eventual plummet - which was obvious due to extreme AD reading, resolved just after 2 pm and gave you everything you were looking for fast and easy.  Did you stay out until then?

Do you have the patience to wait for the set up?

June 20:

gap down post FED.


SPY  gaps down BELOW 50 DAY MA  DAILY.

Major breakdown.

/gc down 82 points!

/tf  970 -- triple bottom at 9 am.

-1.2%

EEM -2%

9:05 - vol. dump   /tf


uvol-dvol -  lower all day --  major capitulation.

XHb loses TL since Nov.

SPY / QQQ loses 50 day MA daily.

correction mode again.

LGND - 14%  winner.

horrible horrible weakness.

Market keeps repeating itself.  Endless cycle of dashed dreams.

June 19 - Wed, Fed Day

/tf - climbs to Tues. highs... forms triple top.

/cl over 99 -- massive uptrend.

more good news for BA.

ATRO raging on daily - aerospace.



When I see ppl predicting prices - I stop following  -- waste of time.

When I see ppl acting like doctors, diagnosing strength and sickness of the market via critical signals -- I am very interested.  This is what we are: doctors of finance.  We observe the patient and make our recommendations based on observation and then test to see whether the medicine is correct.

premarket chop near highs from yesterday... 

/tf fills gap - touches  ystdy close - bounce hard.

/ym now trading below ysty close.

/nq - strongest market.

/tf - FLAT  to the tick...      gonna be a snooze day until 2 pm.

/es - broke yesterday highs by 1 tick this morning before going it all back... red now.

FDX beat.

/ym - that was some wild sloppy o/n moves.  

VVUS????    in play for sure.

futures at ystdy close levels -- very flat... waiting on Fed.

VVUS in play.

nq/ym green

/tf  991.50 --  support hit - broke -- bottom?

internals getting worse..   stay out.

chart later.

June 18: pre Fed day.

Once again - ramp overnight to yesterday highs -- and beyond.


/tf pushing to 990

and just takes out ystdy highs at 5:50 - backs down 30 ticks.

Have to be willing to responsively enter  double tops/bottoms in this market -- b/os are failing -- reversing quickly.

Algos willing to let things run but not the usual entry.

/zb   - new lows....   rates rising.  Direct correlation now = usually bearish.


IWM leading -- risk on.
weak /zb does not matter so far.

anticipate range day?  Look for the edges.   5:50 am already the top.



adv-deck 575
IBD leaders strong

nq, es ym  stronger than /tf  --

Fed tomorrow.

advrl  1240 --

low volume ramp.  Have to be willing to go with it.  

advrl - trending down at 3:05 --   rainbow?

Two possible entries -- the responsive entry for the whole enchilada and the safe one.

Super low volume today.

Strong internals.  Don't be a hero.  When the herd buys, just say moo and buy.

3 main futures trades:

1.  Triple touch on a 2 - 5 day chart -- enter responsively on major TL touch for a big swing.

2. Wedge b/o -- going with the herd after decision wedge builds up.  Works when Market Signals are trending in direction of b/o.

3. Double bottoms -- these can occur out of nowhere.  Also responsive entry -- works if you are going WITH Market Signals -- but obviously - you are taking location and hoping it sticks so almost a countertrade entry.



If the entries are correct, the stop outs will be for 10ticks max and usually lowered to b/e half the time.




adv-dec  dripping all day after gap up open.

fake b/os and b/d today -- just a whipsaw midday -- market gaming the gamers.

ADVrl-DECrl --  dropping all day -- so no surprise it double bottoms and keeps going.   Direction matters more than value.

We only make money guessing direction correctly.  If we start high and drop lower - it's down. 

/tf: inside out day, near gap fill, sharp bounce to TL

June 17: Monday

/tf   gap up 1.1%  to  987.2

up: NFLX, AIG, BAC, TSLA, SCTY, GOOG, AMZN, SODA, GMCR

watch financials...  -- very strong.


all indices above 50 day MA -- don't overthink the uptrend. It's an uptrend.


Focus on /tf -- the   sup/res. levels.

The Market Signals.

8:52:  5 min  TL test   /tf --   holding on.  

$5 bil POMO today -- helping??

/tf  1%  gap up.

gap fill: 977ish.

Your system must allow a way for winners to stay on and run.

/tf - small decision wedge builds now.

after a wedge break -- the stop must be at least the break or backtest -- not the TL down.


flatish day...

Things that Make You Not CP

1. Focusing on too many markets.

Why?  Easy to get distracted, bored.


2. Taking non-plan trades.

Why?  Getting impatient.  Getting impulsive.

3. Taking profits too early.

Why?  Impatient.  Fear of giving back.


Impatience. Fear. 

Is there really anything more?  Either we're bored... and make mistakes: overtrade, take excessive risk, oversize...

or we don't take trades/exit early:  becoming far too risk-adverse when it finally is time not to do so. 


This is the self-mastery part of the game.  You push through feelings of boredom by going over the plan... researching... but you cannot deviate from a set plan/pattern.

You must also stop yourself from ending trades too early, limiting every big winner into a tiny winner. 

When you conquer impatience and fear... everything will fall into place.  But it starts with becoming highly self-aware during the trading day and not merely afterward.  You are not the same person trading as at night.  So develop a monitor for yourself along with market signals.