Feb 28

/tf 910 -

8:30 data...


short /ym - break of o/n lows -- this is taking a breakout -- because

1) long base -- so a break brings out a lot of sellers on the wrong side.
2) catalyst - data
3) context - we're extended from yesterday.  Room to retrace down.

/ym - hammer candle... almost stopped.  It was a good trade.

Should have waited for the retrace back into the descending TL - and responsively entered.

/ym - staying below o/n lows...

ERJ - up 3% on contract win from army. - possible daytrade name.

DECK firm - ER today.  ah.

really want to see $VIX move for a drop.

/ym -- pattern is clear at 1 hour candles.

There is ALWAYS A PATTERN FORMING -- YOU OFTEN CAN'T SEE IT IN SMALLER TIMEFRAMES.  So ALWAYS LOOK FROM FURTHER OUT - ESPECIALLY WHEN TRADING INTRADAY.

Indeed.

Like yesterday  - LO tanked.  Could you have known where it would bottom?  Um, YES. It dipped .10 below the long tailed low from 10 days ago on the daily chart and you'd have gotten a nice .60 move with no heat entering responsively at that area -- a .20 stop would have been fine.

Yes.  /ym -- dropping.

9:05:  /ES breaks o/n lows -- long flat base -- major entry short here.   1514


choppy -- /ym - top of O/N -- and drop -- easy entry short there.  same with /es

AD 400
UD - flat
/zb up small
VIX up small

no conviction.

last day of month - may push.

AD 685
/tf 912.4 - push to   ystdy highs...

/tf - trying to short a small pattern -- instant reversal...  I'm trading noise.

UD negative
vix green
ad 500
weakening.

short /tf  again --  5 min TL break

UD negative -- may test lows?

/ym - decision wedge intraday and b/o to downside -- big move?

chop day - have to be patient and not take NOISE.


MOVING AVGS. DO NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT - THEY INDICATE DIRECTION ONLY.

 two big volatile days --     small today? or wave down again?

bears gaining contrl

AD 200

11:03 - /ym breaks above WEDGE -- bulls back for bounce

UD blast to positive

internals AD 450...
chop again -- recognize -- save you from making bad trades at bad locations

/tf  913 - push.

AD 500   does not warrant heavy short.
Vix red.
xlf, transports green.

really? short?
not for me.

DECK weak into ER -- someone know something?  I say yes.  (And it isn't good.)

/zb nlod.
still like that short? 

tf  913.7 -- DING.

/ym new highs.

AD 800

short 914.40 --  red candle after extension  915 resist.

last day of month can be runaway.

short 2 /ym -- 14 tick stop.

On 5 min reversal candle -- CLEAR RESISTANCE BLOWOFF ON HOURLY CANDLES. MAJOR AREA OF RESISTANCE.

cover /ym - loss
5 min candles are noise -- needs MORE CONFIRMATION to go against trend. Even at resistance.  

/ym --  shooting past what used to be a clear resistance on 1 hour.  So is this blowoff or new paradigm?  More strength than expected.

ad 944


Double top  915 -- was responsive entry short.

$TICK - nlod.  3:12

/zb green
vix green
AD 450 ---

Market failed at 2:30 --  indices broke TL all together.    Clean.   2:30.

tick - hits 1000 -- but this is often a bottom sign....   pukeage.   Now bouncing indices.  strong TICK followup.

DECK surging a bit -- maybe it's a 15% mover ah?  on huge beat now? 

and bounce into close...  

Frustrating - did not have the confidence to follow the breakouts or enter the double bottoms.

I should be batting 50% but the winners will be at least 3x bigger if traded correctly.