/tf 910 -
8:30 data...
short /ym - break of o/n lows -- this is taking a breakout -- because
1) long base -- so a break brings out a lot of sellers on the wrong side.
2) catalyst - data
3) context - we're extended from yesterday. Room to retrace down.
/ym - hammer candle... almost stopped. It was a good trade.
Should have waited for the retrace back into the descending TL - and responsively entered.
/ym - staying below o/n lows...
ERJ - up 3% on contract win from army. - possible daytrade name.
DECK firm - ER today. ah.
really want to see $VIX move for a drop.
/ym -- pattern is clear at 1 hour candles.
There is ALWAYS A PATTERN FORMING -- YOU OFTEN CAN'T SEE IT IN SMALLER TIMEFRAMES. So ALWAYS LOOK FROM FURTHER OUT - ESPECIALLY WHEN TRADING INTRADAY.
Indeed.
Like yesterday - LO tanked. Could you have known where it would bottom? Um, YES. It dipped .10 below the long tailed low from 10 days ago on the daily chart and you'd have gotten a nice .60 move with no heat entering responsively at that area -- a .20 stop would have been fine.
Yes. /ym -- dropping.
9:05: /ES breaks o/n lows -- long flat base -- major entry short here. 1514
choppy -- /ym - top of O/N -- and drop -- easy entry short there. same with /es
AD 400
UD - flat
/zb up small
VIX up small
no conviction.
last day of month - may push.
AD 685
/tf 912.4 - push to ystdy highs...
/tf - trying to short a small pattern -- instant reversal... I'm trading noise.
UD negative
vix green
ad 500
weakening.
short /tf again -- 5 min TL break
UD negative -- may test lows?
/ym - decision wedge intraday and b/o to downside -- big move?
chop day - have to be patient and not take NOISE.
MOVING AVGS. DO NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT - THEY INDICATE DIRECTION ONLY.
two big volatile days -- small today? or wave down again?
bears gaining contrl
AD 200
11:03 - /ym breaks above WEDGE -- bulls back for bounce
UD blast to positive
internals AD 450...
chop again -- recognize -- save you from making bad trades at bad locations
/tf 913 - push.
AD 500 does not warrant heavy short.
Vix red.
xlf, transports green.
really? short?
not for me.
DECK weak into ER -- someone know something? I say yes. (And it isn't good.)
/zb nlod.
still like that short?
tf 913.7 -- DING.
/ym new highs.
AD 800
short 914.40 -- red candle after extension 915 resist.
last day of month can be runaway.
short 2 /ym -- 14 tick stop.
On 5 min reversal candle -- CLEAR RESISTANCE BLOWOFF ON HOURLY CANDLES. MAJOR AREA OF RESISTANCE.
cover /ym - loss
5 min candles are noise -- needs MORE CONFIRMATION to go against trend. Even at resistance.
/ym -- shooting past what used to be a clear resistance on 1 hour. So is this blowoff or new paradigm? More strength than expected.
ad 944
Double top 915 -- was responsive entry short.
$TICK - nlod. 3:12
/zb green
vix green
AD 450 ---
Market failed at 2:30 -- indices broke TL all together. Clean. 2:30.
tick - hits 1000 -- but this is often a bottom sign.... pukeage. Now bouncing indices. strong TICK followup.
DECK surging a bit -- maybe it's a 15% mover ah? on huge beat now?
and bounce into close...
Frustrating - did not have the confidence to follow the breakouts or enter the double bottoms.
I should be batting 50% but the winners will be at least 3x bigger if traded correctly.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
/tf Major Pattern Recognition.
Here was the set up.
/tf firmed up after the selloff -- market was confused... people were short.
And then the pop brought Power to the game... forcing trapped shorts to fuel a huge move.
The key is to recognize we have a Major Decision Pattern.
Study.
/tf firmed up after the selloff -- market was confused... people were short.
And then the pop brought Power to the game... forcing trapped shorts to fuel a huge move.
The key is to recognize we have a Major Decision Pattern.
Study.
 |
| /tf Major Patterns lead to major moves |
Feb 27:
rangebound going into 8:30 data.
PCLN - strong ER
LNG
GOOG
VOD strong
/tf 899 - testing top of range 901ish res.
DWA, FSLR - er LOSERS.
ebay, amzn - below 50 day.
/es- just touches ystdy highs - reverses -- PERFECT TECHNICAL PLAY.
/6e - double top at ystdy high - another perfect technical top.
AD 800
Vix -4.5%
/tf - RAMPS to 904 -- stop hunt. overhead daily MAs -- room to climb... strong IBD names.
IYT, XLF, XHB strong.
/tf pushing -- internals pointing -- bulls control
AD 1100 whew -- shorts on fire.
AD 1250 -- HUGE
AD 1400 bear rallies are the strongest...
massive trend up day ----
tried to buy LO -- it was weak. What's my rule? Buy strength
bought a weak stock, with entire sector weak.
DTV -- meanwhile this was strong -- acted strong - and paid off.
AD 1500
UD - nhod
UD - nhod 11:46
AD 1500
triple top /tf but no divergence
/zb green
/tf -- Bang 910 nhod.
AD 1600 -- really? think a short will work?
/tf 910... massive day
DOW 131
over 61.8% fib retrace from 2 days ago -- good place to die.
/tf - 30 tick p/b -- within minutes....
DECK -- weak last few days into the ER.... have to assume it's going to be terrible. But still holding 50day MA --
bot TZA because ... lost focus. No signal. no reason to short. Lack of discipline is expensive.
All 'gut decisions' will fail. That's not a plan. The plan is the plan. Everything else is wrong.
AD 1650
DOW 168
UD - nhighs all day long
/zb new lows
VIX -13.5%
basically everything I did today was wrong... somehow. Impressive. I could make so much money doing the opposite of what I do.
Dow 195 --
new highs... outperforming... large cap industrial.
Tight stops will kill you just as much as wide. Can't trade afraid.
DECK red... bad ER coming????? smells like it -- seen this before. (SIMO)
LOW TICK OF DAY 3:42. ???
-- 3:45 - this was the time to fade --the Tick called it --
short? ????
PCLN - strong ER
LNG
GOOG
VOD strong
/tf 899 - testing top of range 901ish res.
DWA, FSLR - er LOSERS.
ebay, amzn - below 50 day.
/es- just touches ystdy highs - reverses -- PERFECT TECHNICAL PLAY.
/6e - double top at ystdy high - another perfect technical top.
AD 800
Vix -4.5%
/tf - RAMPS to 904 -- stop hunt. overhead daily MAs -- room to climb... strong IBD names.
IYT, XLF, XHB strong.
/tf pushing -- internals pointing -- bulls control
AD 1100 whew -- shorts on fire.
AD 1250 -- HUGE
AD 1400 bear rallies are the strongest...
massive trend up day ----
tried to buy LO -- it was weak. What's my rule? Buy strength
bought a weak stock, with entire sector weak.
DTV -- meanwhile this was strong -- acted strong - and paid off.
AD 1500
UD - nhod
UD - nhod 11:46
AD 1500
triple top /tf but no divergence
/zb green
/tf -- Bang 910 nhod.
AD 1600 -- really? think a short will work?
/tf 910... massive day
DOW 131
over 61.8% fib retrace from 2 days ago -- good place to die.
/tf - 30 tick p/b -- within minutes....
DECK -- weak last few days into the ER.... have to assume it's going to be terrible. But still holding 50day MA --
bot TZA because ... lost focus. No signal. no reason to short. Lack of discipline is expensive.
All 'gut decisions' will fail. That's not a plan. The plan is the plan. Everything else is wrong.
AD 1650
DOW 168
UD - nhighs all day long
/zb new lows
VIX -13.5%
basically everything I did today was wrong... somehow. Impressive. I could make so much money doing the opposite of what I do.
Dow 195 --
new highs... outperforming... large cap industrial.
Tight stops will kill you just as much as wide. Can't trade afraid.
DECK red... bad ER coming????? smells like it -- seen this before. (SIMO)
LOW TICK OF DAY 3:42. ???
-- 3:45 - this was the time to fade --the Tick called it --
short? ????
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
/tf - Chop Day
Today I hit it well -- entering responsively at support and selling into resistance.
Best trade was entering at yesterday lows - and taking a ride back to 900 -- and could have held all the way past 901.
If you can't be patient, you can't win.
Best trade was entering at yesterday lows - and taking a ride back to 900 -- and could have held all the way past 901.
 |
| /tf rangebound - one good trade pays the bills |
If you can't be patient, you can't win.
feb 26
AD 1200 strong
UD strong.
xhb, kre xlf strong.
but market in correction mode.
first attempt: long /tf 11 tick stop: 9:52
+41 ticks for the day -- on /tf at 10:05 -- well done. Nailed the top, too. Ridiculous.
IWM - -failed EXACTLY at TL -- on 5 min chart -- this is perfect Technical resistance level.
vix -7%
rth, euros strong
slx strong
xlf green
HD -- new highs.
IBD names mostly green...
AD 800
/tf 896 --fading
AD 500
fading hard -- testing o/n lows? will it hit? (probably)
and yes 894.6 at 10:30 - ben speaking.
UD -- goes NEGATIVE -- CAREFUL.
AD 100
/tf -- double bottom -- support here.
/zb - new highs 11:07 -- downtrend confirmed.
UD - signals new lows coming 11:30 -- euro close -- bringing in sellers
/zb rising
/gc - -huge move up though.
out of /tf long
+56 for the day.
key to today's success is entering where it feels most uncomfortable -- but being very aware of the support/resistance areas where you can take that risk and responsively enter.
AD 242 -- from -200 low of day
bounce back to the opening print possible? IWM -- in downtrend -- will it test again?
YES - 898 -- opening print touches and fade...
AD 735 and TF pushes to 899
IWM - TL break... bulls in control.
TLT - rejected at 200 day MA daily--- needs to base to breakthrough.
AD 834
/tf -- tests over 900... now 899
still solid.
Vix -10%
Very mixed day --
/tf same price as 8 pm -- last night when it gapped open. FLAAT with a side of chop today.
Internals are VERY STRONG though. maybe saving up for last 10 min. pop.
Would NOT SHORT.
long /tf - last time risk 10t.
Internals powerful here. Support is the opening print.
63 ticks total today. stopped out for about 7 last trade.
incredible -- to do so well in pure chop.
Will post a chart later. Good chart reading / observations. Saw the market clearly -- took responsive entries.
UD strong.
xhb, kre xlf strong.
but market in correction mode.
first attempt: long /tf 11 tick stop: 9:52
+41 ticks for the day -- on /tf at 10:05 -- well done. Nailed the top, too. Ridiculous.
IWM - -failed EXACTLY at TL -- on 5 min chart -- this is perfect Technical resistance level.
vix -7%
rth, euros strong
slx strong
xlf green
HD -- new highs.
IBD names mostly green...
AD 800
/tf 896 --fading
AD 500
fading hard -- testing o/n lows? will it hit? (probably)
and yes 894.6 at 10:30 - ben speaking.
UD -- goes NEGATIVE -- CAREFUL.
AD 100
/tf -- double bottom -- support here.
/zb - new highs 11:07 -- downtrend confirmed.
UD - signals new lows coming 11:30 -- euro close -- bringing in sellers
/zb rising
/gc - -huge move up though.
out of /tf long
+56 for the day.
key to today's success is entering where it feels most uncomfortable -- but being very aware of the support/resistance areas where you can take that risk and responsively enter.
AD 242 -- from -200 low of day
bounce back to the opening print possible? IWM -- in downtrend -- will it test again?
YES - 898 -- opening print touches and fade...
AD 735 and TF pushes to 899
IWM - TL break... bulls in control.
TLT - rejected at 200 day MA daily--- needs to base to breakthrough.
AD 834
/tf -- tests over 900... now 899
still solid.
Vix -10%
Very mixed day --
/tf same price as 8 pm -- last night when it gapped open. FLAAT with a side of chop today.
Internals are VERY STRONG though. maybe saving up for last 10 min. pop.
Would NOT SHORT.
long /tf - last time risk 10t.
Internals powerful here. Support is the opening print.
63 ticks total today. stopped out for about 7 last trade.
incredible -- to do so well in pure chop.
Will post a chart later. Good chart reading / observations. Saw the market clearly -- took responsive entries.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Feb 25: trend down
Massive sell signals
and a colossal VIX +31% and rising....
This is a Pig Day.
This is not even end of day either...
Dow -200
Vix 35%
/tf -- 25 point drp -- to the close.
AD -1688
UD -505
Dow -216 at the close.
Whew.
and a colossal VIX +31% and rising....
This is a Pig Day.
This is not even end of day either...
Dow -200
Vix 35%
/tf -- 25 point drp -- to the close.
AD -1688
UD -505
Dow -216 at the close.
Whew.
Friday, February 15, 2013
Fri 15: half day.
/cl - pop on Empire data - dirty reversal kills stops.
AD fading to flat...
/tf -- touched high to the tick -- NO NEW HIGH
short 923.4 -- double top ..
AD - not improving much at resistance.
internals are fine... my bias is always a problem.
AAPL - 3 bump on 15 min chart. Should break hard... hopefully up.
internals are holding solid -- shorting is still guessing.
UD -25000
AD 50
very weak -- at highs?
MNST _- call options -- movement -- so obvious -- saw it early... no faith.
internals say fall...
stay with the bigger picture.
Trading too much noise.
The whole game is knowing what's noise.
AD fading to flat...
/tf -- touched high to the tick -- NO NEW HIGH
short 923.4 -- double top ..
AD - not improving much at resistance.
internals are fine... my bias is always a problem.
AAPL - 3 bump on 15 min chart. Should break hard... hopefully up.
internals are holding solid -- shorting is still guessing.
UD -25000
AD 50
very weak -- at highs?
MNST _- call options -- movement -- so obvious -- saw it early... no faith.
internals say fall...
stay with the bigger picture.
Trading too much noise.
The whole game is knowing what's noise.
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