Monday, April 19, 2010

Never Say It's Over

Big bounce today.

 I watched GS all day -- as I should have, being the 'in play' name -- today's open was low of the day -- eventually going on to push up about 8 points.

 MON had buyback news -- up 2 points.

 It really helps to be in news-driven stocks as that's where the volume is.

 Overtraded today with nothing to show for it.

 I am mostly in cash, no big blow ups.  I can continue on next week.  Focusing on

 1) support/resistance
 2) order flow
 3) market signals
 4) risk management

  Today I did well not to lose a lot.  I did poorly not letting the one main winning trade move up.  My initial ideas - -HUM and MON were good.  So just need to follow through with picks like that.

keep missing:

I flagged HUM and MON as longs -- they both went higher.

 Then I played around in SRS - got stopped out twice, third  time WAS the charm - but I didn't hold long enough to offset the losses.

 What I could have done better was look at the chart and define resistance - it topped out 4 cents above the 20 day MA -- a simple backtest.  That would have gotten me in perfectly.

 leaders are weak, XLY is weak -- this is a corrective market.  The best ppl I follow are raising cash.  I will not fight the trend.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

not holding long enough

mistakes:  buying weakness

 selling out winners too soon  -- over and over again -- not having the confidence to hold through.

 Need to keep position size smaller.

 Keep gravitating toward weak names -- which will require more time.

 Entries often too high -- selling on pullbacks...

 Need to have more conviction, smaller size -- and simply hold the best idea.  

 Overtrading into 3rd tier names.  No need.

  Need to focus on just a few names each day.  Don't be afraid to do nothing.  The moments of profit will be quick and violent.  If it doesn't happen immediately... it's a sell.