Sunday, September 1, 2013

Trend Down

Weak open in 'correction' sets up a short opp.  Using the 5 min OR break - but still want to wait for synchronicity to show us the best entry.

  TL forms quickly and the short runs for over 100 ticks after entry.

/tf trend down on -800 ADr open: simple


Low breaches the recent low of 1008 that was hit around 10 days earlier - -breaks through by 1 point... and a sharp 'little 40tick rally' in the final few minutes.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Trend Day

Set up was premarket and entry at open

Already had a TL break + backtest with huge ADr  reading at open to confirm - get long -- and the fast break means - stay with it.

/tf: trend day with 5/34 xover premarket, strong ADr

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Moving On.

I will soon be rejoining the world and ending my fulltime daytrading life.

I must say I'm looking forward to it.  The sole pursuit of money/profits has been slowing digging a hole in my soul.  But I will have summers off to work on the game full-time. 

Good luck to you and your trading.  If I've helped one person in some way, it was worth my time writing my thoughts.

Fear of Being Wrong.

This can be a devastating problem.

If you fear being wrong, you will almost certainly do two things.

1) take profits too early all the time
2) hold losers too long to avoid admitting losses.
3) not take a clear pattern entry because it might lose

This is a psychological issue.  You are afraid deep down of being wrong.  Because in your mindset, every loser is an admission of failure.  But we know that failing regularly is part of trading. 

Traders make money over time.  The win percentage may vary but no matter how a person trades, each individual trade is mostly meaningless unless we give it power. 

Fear of being wrong means every trade is viewed as another final exam of whether we are smarter than the market.

Being smart is not an asset, it's a liability. 

The best trader sticks to a process and takes the small losses. 

But how does one overcome obsession fear of failure?

The first step:

1) Reduce size to reduce fear.

You have to do your trading plan without any fear so do it with smaller size.  You need to win and boost your confidence but more importantly, develop the identity of a CP trader.  If you don't think you can succeed, you won't.  So start with a small win.

2) Review each trade.  Look back and see where you started feeling anxious. Then, when you are actually making a trade, you can identify the moment of anxiety and take a new action.  Stand up from your chair, talk to yourself out loud about how you feel.  Remind yourself that the anxiety is just an emotion that you can control.   You cannot change a habit until you can identify it when it is happening and break the routine with a new action.

3) Breathe.  I wouldn't be surprised if many traders exhibit a lot of physical tension during these moments.  Physically relaxing your body will help you mind shift.  You don't need to eliminate the anxiety, you just need to change your behavior and not fall back on old patterns (taking profits too quick, not taking losses). 

This is just a brief beginning.  But first, you have to be honest with what's holding you back.




Monday, August 19, 2013

Habits. Aug 19

Again,

Good trading comes down to good habits.   Planning, careful execution, study, careful review/analysis.

Some traders probably prefer some of the job over other parts.  And obviously, some traders are just jazzed by the thrill of gambling, not the daunting grunt work of the process.

One has to be honest with oneself regarding the work and one's habits.  Just showing up isn't enough to achieve CP.

And on top of all that is the self-control to execute religiously.  Trading requires us to perform at the top of our abilities every single day.  Most jobs do not require 100% concentration, 100% of the time.  Hardly.  Most jobs don't even require us to actively use our brains all day.

Wanting to succeed is not the same as willingness to work hard to succeed.

If this sound familiar, it's time to commit to small changes to improve habits, and performance will follow.  But it takes time and commitment and not everyone want to make the sacrifice.


So....

aug 19.

/tf  -.21%  to 1019.

strong: fb, tsla, ddd.   AAPL


weak:  grpn, trla, z  ocn, /cl

$namo -60...  amzn down 5 days in a row... light vol. in Aug.

/tf - flips green 8:50 am

oversold here... may be low vol squeeze to start.

/tf flat.

wedge  now  10:22

/nq  .93   despite ADn -900+

/tf  


Remember: Your rules don't protect you from the market, they protect you from yourself.

short  /nq  triple touch,   ADn -1000+,   negative vol.     vix green,    xhb, xlf, iyt red.

/tf -- and I saw it real time -- synched into a dTL -- and dropped to a triple bottom...

ADr -300 and dropping.
ADn -1400

ADn  -1500   severe -- big shift -- market would have bounced long before this weeks ago -- sentiment has broken on Taper.

/nq  dTL broken -- could squeeze...?


AD -1600 --    no reason to fear being 'part of the herd' -- it's only at the ends is it dangerous... in the middle of the herd, the worst thing to do is face the opposite direction.

IWM -  just touches 50 day MA today...

meanwhile... xhb   below 200 day MA.
xlf below 50.


Difficult to hold a winner.  Why?  Threat of giving back a small profit overwhelms the process of staying in a trade that is working.

Today - correct play was worth around 70 ticks.

panic...

/tf 1012.3...110 ticks high to low intraday....

All you had to do was wait for TL to be clear... and then everyone saw it.



What is difficult about holding a winner?  Is it not trusting yourself?  The process?  Where does you mind break with what you know is the plan?  How can you break the wrong habit?

Friday, August 16, 2013

Aug 16 Fri.

Triple bottom   8:15

strong premarket:

green: FB, tsla, gmcr, ddd, aig, z cree, afcp, pcln, amzn qihu litb lnkd blox xin arii appl avg

IBD - market in correction. ..  thanksfor the tip.  -225 dow day wasn't obvious.



ADr   -- can't get positive...   breaks over 25 min OR and fails...  

bear market  = need proof to take longs.



market in correction:

Fri opex -- taking  responsive fades --   double top short 1028.5    8t stop.

ADr  219 --  pushing.


3rd touch establishes a line - if Market Signals are improving in same direction -- that's the entry.


Thursday, August 15, 2013

Aug 15>

-1% o/n - /tf  to 1035 -- below last major support level on hourly chart.


Major break in sentiment occurring.  Still no bottom.

fb, tsla, aig, cree, grpn, down.

/tf worst index. 

/es also at 1672 -- bottom of hourly support  --  

NTES strong on er beat.

/tf looks like  huge head/shoulder pattern completed -- no either bounce back or start of major correction.

1035 bounce?

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Aug 14

/tf  -.28  1047 -- TL down.

1049 -- back to TL touch at 9 am.

aapl  1.11% on iCahn fever.


short -- symmetrical triple touch.

and -- of course -- attempting to trade premarket is failure... don't do it.

gap fill  1050.5 -- and reverse....   have to expect that.


OLED -- strong.

once again 4:37 am --  /tf low  o/n -- and day could be over at 9:29

grinding day -- frustrating if you didn't short the open.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Aug 13:

/tf gap up .25%  to 1054...

5/34 xover - still in place.


perfect   head/shoulders top on /tf --  topped out  at 1057   -- same as 7/22 to the tick -- so this pattern may be noticeable.

strong:  nq, sina, xone, litb, ssys, tsla, xin, peri.

long tf  on  5/34 xover 1 min candles  and triple touch TL now in place. 

Will it work being 17 min. off LoD?

And stopped at new low...   So ...

viewing thru 5 min candles... chopping at the lows -- accepting value down here.

ADr -911 is telling.
ADn -1200

strong:  IMOS, XIN

/tf --   triple bottom on 5 min chart - then 50 tick bounce.    now midday chop... pointless.

and /tf --  70t bounce back to nearly yesterday's close -- triple bottom then double bottoms --


Monday, August 12, 2013

Mon chart

tf - gap down o/n so the best entry was premarket after a MAJOR SUPPORT level touched o/n.

China data strong.  Pushes market all the way to push past MAJOR RESISTANCE at end of day.
IBD names led the way.

/tf o/n gap fill and push beyond. Starting with major support touch

Friday, August 9, 2013

Friday Opex

Rangebound market means entering near  sup/res. with a confirmation of a TL or TL break.

As usual -- you should be done by 1 pm.  Keeping a watch on higher timeframe lets you know where to start getting interested.



opex: coast to coast on /tf

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Aug 8

Gap up to start the day -- with strong IBD names   huge 1412 ADr at the open.

But the game is the game.

And the system is the system.

14 minutes into the day -- the 10 min OR breaks to the downside.  The AD line is sliding and the previous close calls out...

There's a second bump but the 10 min OR acts as first entry and then you can follow the 34 ma down... 

the gap does fill and now it's easy to trail a stop.

Internals are extremely strong so once the stop is hit, it's time to enter long on the first chance...

Given the strong internals, there's no need to wait one hour, however we need to establish a TL to confirm at 11:20 -- about 40 mins. off low of day -- so still nearly an hour.

Then market climbs back -- we're looking for 20 - 30t max because we're countertrend trading below the 10 min OR -- and we easily get that and a more lax stop might capture up to 40ticks.

/tf: gap fill open - successful. Then TL entry back to 10 min OR

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Aug 7 chart

10 min OR break pays today.

Then long time for a TL to grab another 20 ticks.

/tf: 10 min OR break with -800 ADr pays easy

Aug 7 Wed.

/tf   -.16

may be rangebound consolidation after large move yesterday?

SNTS -- the co. that never quits   8% pm.

solars down big.

Z, GPOR weak.



/tf  -.34

1046.6

So  nailed the opening mostly -- got the 10 min OR break -- for 31 ticks...  then gave back 13 on non-plan trading.

Like 1 min candles for the first hour -- saw the clear top above the 10 min OR.

short /tf --

under 10 min OR
market signal break
triple touch pattern.

ADr  -862 breaking lower...

Is everything lined up?

Yes -- and out at 1042

37 ticks on the day -- despite a 13 tick dumb trade.

selling

/nq  at 3108.75 -- at   61.8% intraday fib  and near  10 min OR low.


12:30 pm -   5/34 xover on /nq -- causing a short cover rally.  <--- can="" emerges.="" new="" p="" pattern="" reshort="" t="" until="">
market signals turning down   1:50


/nq - top of 10 min OR --  

ADn  -1200 -- is irrelevant  to Price Action first. 

all /tf  did after drop was establish a TL to bounce from.

bot SQQQ -- TOP of hourly channel -- responsive  with   ADn -1000


5/34 xover -- keeps you on the right side of the trade -- it will mean later entries but it will pay by not taking early shorts.

/nq  fully above 10 min OR -- bulls in control. 

can't make up new rules.

the 5/34 xover - - will keep you on the right side of the trend  MOST of the time.   But enough to be CP.





Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Aug 6 - Tues.

futures flattish.

KORS - up big on ER.

/nq -- won't drop to bottom of ch.  -- working across -- correction via time....

futs. slightly red. 

penny stocks jumping...    it's no rules again.

long tf 1057.7 -- triple touch of major TL.     premarket still.  

and market plummets...


10 min OR -- break to downside entry -- killed it.

Have to be automatic -- or else, you end up unable to participate.


Can't get long now, until 1 hour base forms....

ADr  -1300

may trend down all day.


long /tf    55 min from low of day  1050.6


problem:  Not consistent enough -- changing my strategies too often.

exit  1052.4 --  38% fib retrace -- high to low today

ADr improving to -1179  at 12pm

rumors of tapering....

/tf   climbing out of the hole slightly

ADr  -1119  --   just covering...    sellers still too strong.

short  /nq  3116  -- triple touch -- TL established down ---   ADn  -1000+  go with trend.


/tf 1050 -- value...

taper talk is only thing market cares about....

ADr -1066 

strong:  fltx, klic, fldm, regi, imos, edap, away, ocn

Had to take the 10 min OR - considering the setup, and the first print of ADr  ADn --


Monday, August 5, 2013

Aug 5 Chart -- rangebound.

Tough day -


Big picture:  market in uptrend
medium:  extended

One chance today -- taking the TL break + small double p/b  --

Stay long above 10 min OR.

/tf: bubble bull market continues - take the breaks

Aug 5 - Monday.How High Can You Jump?

Flat o/n -

/nq - extended  and top of channel...

could drop 15 pts easy to bottom of uptrend.

eurozone PMI expands...

FB, PCLN targets raised...
AAPL strong on patent news...

/cl - just about a 50% retrace from high to low run - last week.

/cl - perfect touch - 50% fib.

/tf -  on Fri. close.
/cl - bounce to cover and now puke candle - dropping it back to 50% fib level...   no support, no triple bottom in place.

note:  /nq chart is very 'smooth'  whereas  /tf  /es  extremely choppy lately -- may be easier to stick with /nq patterns as less prone to noise.

3126 is 50% retrace ---  Fri low to o/n high this morning -- would be interesting if it touched and ended up being the low.   9:14 am

ADn -800   trending lower...

adn -725 -- 
IBD leaders powerful  but already 10:25 and still weak.

/nq - pushes to unch.   Fri close -- 

advr  -68     may just push through

trla, scty, z, fltx --       squeezing  everyone.

/nq  green  with adn -500

/tf -- Through top --  Fri high.....

ad flat.


once /tf broke 5 min TL -- and settles above 10 min OR -- have to go with uptrend.


/nq - takes out   highs 3140  with negative AD.

triple top channel formed (new channel)

AMBA -- through 50 day MA - -stophunt -- now below --   curious.

/nq -- RED....  clearly the better short.

must recognize - divergence---    /nq was the correct one to look for a triple top...

/tf - bull flag -- triple top

adr +178   This is not a short with strong IBD leadership.

ADr  flat...       best trade of the day is over now....


/tf -  above 10 min OR    AND     advrld +70   and IBD names strong  == shorts gonna lose.

/tf - pushes to the highs at the close

1060.5....

adrld  +341


Friday, August 2, 2013

Aug 2 opex chart

Friday -- always difficult, usually range bound and today was no exception  with /tf -- closing essentially right on unchanged.

/tf - had to be patient -- the TL was finally established at 2:30 pm and then -- was OVER by 2:40 and that was pretty much for 20 ticks....

So as expected... minimal opportunity unless your plan is different.

/tf: rangebound Friday as expected

side by side with 30 min candles shows how today's low made perfect sense -- merely a touch of the developing TL.


Aug 2.

/nq spikes to  .44%  gain  despite negative  ad.

now a 5 min reversal red candle - marks easy R:R. on the divergence. 

shorted  the spike after 5 min reversal...

1) rangebound day
2) ad  negative
3) IBD list half red - many momo taking a breather.


leaders are now hugely momo names -- YELP, LNKD, YY, MELI, WWWW, NGVC, SCTY

not healthy.


closed at highs  /nq

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

July 31 chart

was clear bulls at strength at the open -- TL developed and entry on the line yields a nice move of over 50 ticks -- just through first line of resistance -- the high from 2 days ago -- wicks through and dies.

/tf retraces slowly - -all the way to 3 am o/n lows -- as  adv-decrld drops - but never goes below zero - so bulls probably still in charge...

ramp through the Fed -- and suddenly rage on high tick....   dies just as suddenly at 3 pm and drops -- yep, all the way back to 3 am o/n low AGAIN -- providing another 24 ticks.


qcor, mx, aegr, yy, soda, regi, peri, grmn major winners.


/tf last day of month, FOMC games

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

goal tomorrow:

I want to see a TL develop clearly -- the third touch on a 15min. chart and then view it via 10tick range chart and enter on the third touch on this smaller time frame.  I want to see the Market Signals trending in the direction of the trade.

Then I want to hold it with a trailing stop either to a known support/res. area or else get stopped for a gain.

I also want to ONLY take this trade and do nothing else that gives back profit. 

This kind of trade sets up at least once a day.  I want to take it consistently and then focus on stock research.

7/30 Tues.

/tf .23%  at 7:19

/nq - above ystdy  hod.   .37

FB, TSLA, strong

/tf 1042.8 - pop

AAPL now in uptrend as well

GLW - 3.25  on ER.

ferts down HUGE on some kind of news...

MOS - pushes below 2010 lows.  Entry there good for 1.60

lesson:  KNOW YOUR SUPPORT / RESISTANCE LEVELS.



advrld  1200  --    665 -- trending down   10 min OR - break to downside...

5/34 xover now --    long      on 3rd touch TL..  market signals strong / support

/nq -- BREAKOUT __ _

/tf - struggling insider 10 min OR --

/tf - triple top formed -- took off  long --    +6t.

/nq - double top 5 min candles...   10:55 ?

/tf -- triple top -- and breaks below 10 min OR -

5/34 xover

shorted /nq on the double top.

internals confirming - hold short.

free trade /nq - stop in place

tough day here -- no trend...

bulls mostly in charge

long /tf -- on 3rd touch of bounce -- at the TL -- only have to risk about 6t

/nq --  NEW HIGHS....

/tf  will it follow off this turn?

 clear TL --  5min chart caught it -- think this is easier than 10tick range chart -- too much noise.

Need to see the clear sup/res areas --

market is in a downtrend so the TL is clear -- it's not clear how low we will go each day....

gonna need 1 hour -- here because not at a clear support area...

/tf  breaks

this was all clear -- the descending TL  on the 15 min chart -- touched in the morning...

/nq -- was stronger but now breaking too.

/tf -- bad long -- was NOT at clear support -- took a triple touch before 50 min.  

/tf  back to 1040 --  yesterday close --   dead money flat.

long /tf -- triple touch -- 1 hour from low... 

market signals bouncing.

advrld  flat -- 

/tf  near unch.

flat is flat. 

wow -- triple touches --  10t range chart makes it easier to see.


two triple touch set ups ... trade the edges...



Monday, July 29, 2013

July 29 Mon.

/tf -.24

weak start.

up: fb, ddd, fslr, irbt

weak: CYOU, SOHU --  HTZ, sbux, aig,

/tf - wedge at 9:25

Fri  low 40t away.

9:44 -- gap fill  fri. close touch.

adrl -247 tho.

5/34 xover -- drop below 10 min OR -- and smooth sailing for major trend down

Market Signals were giving it away.

High of day was simply a gap fill just past Fri close.    classic double top.

ad  -1400 - -major instit. selling.   No need to fight it intraday until patterns develop.

11:35 - euro closed.


3rd touch on 10tick chart -- was  just 3 minutes after low of day touched /tf -- then 30tick bounce.

/tf-- retrace 50% of today's top to bottom -- dropped to 2nd support (Thurs low) -- tl break, triple touch  - and slow roller to 50% fib.


short /tf   triple top  + TL break +  ad -752 and trending lower.  <--- -="" good="" p="" this="" was="" yep="">
We're under 10 min OR -- with weak internals -- have to follow trend.



3rd touch after major support/resistance areas -- pay big today.

+put in Fib retrace lines after 1% move or more...    captures the bounce.


Once again -- afternoon provided virtually nothing to work with - the key times for futures are the opening -- and the intial move by longs which was clearly wrong -- allowing for an easy entry -- but then the hard part -- holding the trend  until major support is hit.

/tf: weak internals - have to find a way to get short today



Friday, July 26, 2013

Fri July 26 chart

3rd touch is the charm... as long as you know the context.


July 26

Friday.

Often /cl is the best market to play.

And once again -- triple touch -- 3rd touch was 50 min. from the low.   and a 50 tick move -- day is over in 10 min.   at 9:05.  That's what's possible.

long /tf -- 50 min from low of day -- 3rd touch of established TL.

advrld -1300       9t stop.

I had established rules though.   -800+    NO LONGS at all.  So this is breaking my own rules.

5 is under 34 ma too.  So 2 broken rules.   Unlikely to be CP doing this. 

5/34 xover.  9:55



advrld -1250 -- rule is:  DON"T  GO LONG --

and /tf now breaks o/n LOWS --  heavy - sellers in control. Your job is to trend trade.

bot ACT, OCN --     strong today.  

5 under 34
advrld  -1300

trend is down.  end of story.

-1400  advrld --   massive exodus today. 

/nq-- outperform  .25%

/tf  still -.6%  --- huge difference.

amzn, yy, sbux, trip, tsla, akam --

bot ACT< OCN

/tf -- bounce to top of 10 min OR --  

advrld  -974 but way off opening lows -- this is not critical.  what's important is DIRECTION.


switching to 10tick -- candles rather than 5 min.



Basic idea:   Once you have trend in place  5 over 34 -- uptrend -- enter on a 3rd touch TL -- it could be below the 34 ma - doesn't matter.

the MAs are not enter/exit -- just trend signals to keep you focused on direction.  The entry is the developing TL which is dynamic.

The market signals + leadership list also keep you informed on trend power.


Thursday, July 25, 2013

thurs July 25

Need to add in moving avgs. to create more structure for futures trading.


Trying to countertrend trade is not consistent or profitable.


/es  -.65 premarket -- correction continues.

/cl down  .71  - forming double bottom on hourly.

/tf - triple bottom  in the early am -- for 20t bounce.    Nice set up.

7:10 - /tf  5/34 xover
 /nq -- took out yesterday lows...   bounced 16 points - all before 7:20am.

/nq -- COAST TO COAST - took out yesterday's lows by a point -- regains entire move -- 23 point swing back to o/n high.

never looked back from 5/34 xover.

long  /tf -- on double bottom   5/34 -- xover to upside.

/tf  looks toppy but hasnt been 50 min. 
now advrld popping -- challening hod.  could take out early shorts.


triple bottom in p/m  - then triple top an hour after high -- and you could be done and in the sun.

still managed to grab 33 ticks with very poor trading -- using the 5/34 as guide.


5 over 34 ma all day....    trend up

advrld 910  at 3:48 -- no shorting.


trend up as advrld  pushes over 1000 -- simple rules -- no shorting over 800 no matter what.


Using 5/34 mas helps clearly see the intraday trend.





Wednesday, July 24, 2013

July 24

first rule of futures trading:

You have to NOT take all the millions of 'almost' patterns that suck your profits away until you actually enter a proper pattern  -- or rather, don't, because you've lost all confidence.


1047 -- clear pattern on TL Break + double bottom  11t. stop.   Clear as day at 11:10.


ad  -1300   trend down day -- major.

Have to listen to the power of the signals... 


very strong --   no way it could stay up.

bounce got to 25 min OR low - and acted as resistance once again.

ad  -1650  -- 3:40 --    harsh.

probably more --

close near lows.

FB, BIDU strong ah.  


Tuesday, July 23, 2013

July 23 tues.

/tf  .11%  o/n

/cl continues to drop 105.8

NFLX -4%   er

FIRE -  29% premium b/o -- helping FTNT

/tf  near 1058 would be top of 1 hour channel.

starting the day in the middle....

advrld - fading down   486+

wedge forming  /tf

/tf - dives --  pushing to the 15 min  channel.   1051...


10:12 - was a signal break to get long on next  p/b -- (TL break + small double bottom)

/tf :  So with HOURLY channel now broken...   

DOWNTREND HAS STARTED?  May be back test -- but now shorting tops ?   Major break today.



actually should have been an easy day.

Start with looking for a clear TL on 5 min. candles -- 3rd touch at 9:40 -- and you got the swing selloff until a triple bottom indicates covering -- and midday chop.

Day should be over for fut. traders.

and /tf -- triple bottom and slow climb back to UNCH.  --  38 tick swing.

pays to be patient.  

ad flat -- pointless here... opportunity came and went.


Monday, July 22, 2013

July 22: Mon.

/tf -- push on Sun. night but back to  unch.  at 8 am.

3 touch and a quick 20t swoop.

/gc over 1300 - on big big push.
GDX  4%

DDD, NFLX, tsla, irbt, scty amzn goog green.

DB 1.4%

/cl -- 3rd touch of channel - and nearly 85t dive. 

adrld  -- flat

rangebound rules --

double tops/bottoms  only --      extreme patience.


TL -- triple touch  /es    at 11:28 --   euro close....


and up we go --  /es breaks it.

/tf - touches bottom of 1 hour TL -- big swing -- touches top of 1 hour TL -- backs off 10t.

ad  470.  Still trending up.

12:49 -- 1 hour from hod..   TL break + small double top - and perfect entry.

 advrl  400+

drop back to Fri. close --   1 min TL break...  20t small ball entry.


The responsive TL entry:


And the intraday day, a long off the TL break with signals confirm.  And later.

TL break -- wait 1 hour for backtest and short back to the Fri. close.

All 3 trade types:

1) responsive entry off larger timeframe channels
2) small ball 1 min TL -- with confirming signals.
3) TL break + backtest after extended move and 50 min. past high touch.






Friday, July 19, 2013

July 19 Fri

opex - Friday.


/tf - weak close ystdy -

8am -- bounce back to Thurs. close.

/es a bit higher.

Japan down, msft, goog down big -- so some expecting weakness?  It didn't matter yesterday.

Staying with 5 min candles.

/cl - manages to push through new highs pm.

/cl  - TL break + small double top.   Short?


would have to expect small ball -- rangebound rules -- entering double tops/bottoms only.  No trend.

no - can't short unless an hour has passed, THEN TL break + test.
Or  3 touches to establish a TL

/cl continues  .62%

/cl  b/o at 5:45 am - could be out for $1000 per contract -- call it a day.

/tf -- triple top -- 3rd touch exactly 1 hour out from hod.  -- and easy trend down.

Goog - -3%
amzn -1%
red: xhb, spy, jnk, jjg, kre

/cl -- 108.81 -- pushing hard.   

12 ticks -- /tf --  down to TL support --  after triple touch.

premarket action:
red:  goog, yhoo, gs, tsla, scty, lnkd, amzn, nflx

double top 1047.5 -- short /tf?  rangebound?   10t stop

small triple top  wedge -- 10:51

advrl  -193

/tf -- CLEAR     TL break + small double top - short -- this is the pattern.

12:30 pm.

/tf - breaks past  to double top 1049 -- RANGEBOUND ACTION -- have to follow rangebound rules

opex fri - afternoon -- once again, a waste of time --  day was over at 11:10 off 3rd touch 9:50

Just needed 80 minutes today.

Enter the 3rd touch.

/tf: 3rd time is the charm



Thursday, July 18, 2013

July 18:

One of my top patterns, assuming the Market signals are confirming is simply a TL break on the 5 min candles and then a small double top/double bottom

Here's the short in /tf

There was also a simply TL breakout premarket that caught the entire upside -- always worth taking since the risk was around 8t max.

/tf: runs in the morning - sets up short in afternoon
Here's a long off /nq -- using same TL break + backtest on the same day.

Simple pattern, easy to manage risk.   Use know sup/res. as targets or just trail.  Never have to risk more than 9t max.

Monday, July 15, 2013

July 15 - Mon

Trend day again

QQQ up 14 days in a row.

Raining money. Really as simple as it gets. 

Triple touch entries pay gold.

/tf Trend Day mean simply buying triple support and wedge breaks

Friday, July 12, 2013

bad day

Well, I had a terrible day with the futures...

I had pretty much one correct entry all day -- which I lost on anyway because my stop was too tight and that was because I entered a bit too early.


This is a simple game but it's not easy.  It requires total discipline and attention.  I started getting frustrated, I knew I was frustrated, and took two more bad trades anyway.

 Meanwhile the IBD stocks are mostly doing great.

I basically should be doing the same thing every day but I seem to be making small adjustments to my rules every single day which means I'm having to think and make decisions rather than simply observe and act on patterns I know have good probability.

My losses were contained but that's not the point.  It was still awful.

And it's worse that I was leaning bearish /tf at the close and finally gave up before the easy -- ridiculous 40tick give back.  One trade could have wiped out the entire day of losses but I wasn't in for that one.

What did I learn?

1) the patterns with the market signals will work.  I have to trust them more.
2) Can't go off and trade /nq or take other pattern entries that are not clear as day.
3) Must accept the process will have bad days.
4) Analyze them, learn from them, then move on.

Anyway.  I'm relaxing this weekend and plan to come back Monday and start over again.

July 12, 2013

Friday.  opex.

futures flat o/n.

/cl - went vertical -- may do 50% retrace of past 2 days.

/tf had a signal -- b/o / small backtest for about 15 ticks.

premarket usually not a good time to enter.

/gc falling back down.

JPM, WFC reports -- strong.

PPI data 8:30

PPI data - problematic.  market initially dips

UPS -- warning.  -3%



9:41 -- market signals drop  --  and TL break -- short entry /tf   8t stop.

Have to be automatic.

bad entry -- pattern was too small --   5 min chart showed it was actually b/o + backtest.

strong IBD names = buyers control.


adrld  -230 --  RANGEBOUND STRATEGIES.  ?  DOUBLE TOP?

10:45  high of day -- need time



TL break + small backtest -- and there's 20 ticks to  top of 25 OR --  

and TL break up but no signal confirmation - so it's a no signal.

missed this trade because you were DECIDING instead of acting automatically to the plan.

/tf - double bottom but ad trending down -- no longs.

/nq -- triple top TL -- weaker than /tf -- and there it drops to a clear  TL below - 4pts - no heat.


must be willing to switch markets... short the weaker one.

and midrange --   ad -113

3 good entries today -- missed them all but took a bad one for -7.

/nq had TL break +Backtest but ADVN-DECN trending down -- no signal.

1:59  -- TL break +small backtest  long 1032.7   8t stop -- have to be automatic.

AD -35 but trending up.
VOLrd  trending up


stopped out -- frustrating.  shit.   And I was correct... just had the stop too tight....  .... damn.


IYT, JNK, JJG, eem, xhb red -- /nq jumps to highs -- pushing so hard....

I feel this is a fake -- should get short.   Can't do it because no signal, pattern to doso.

triple top short...   rangebound market  -- this is the proper thing to do.

adrld  at zero.

iyt, xhb red.   eem iyr, jnk red.   It's not a trend day for sure.

AND STOPPED OUT

0 for 3....     pathetic.

short  /nq -- symmetrical double top to the tick .   Rangebound market means responsive trading should pay.

incredibly awful day.

and no reason for it. 

past 3 days - -jump in morning.... consolidate til afternoon base forms, ramp to close.

complete hoser close -- ramp and then all taken back AH.





OPEX -- almost always rangebound so   triple touch entries on Fri. are best.

Be Automatic

someone posted a quote on twitter that I should have copied.

Essentially:  If you have to make decisions during the trading day -- you're never going to make it.


Look: there's too much happening.  We can't pay attention to everything.  Humans have limited capacity -- so we end up being blind to lots of information.  This is why pilots can sometimes fly into a mountain -- they're focused on the controls, and whatever and just become blind to some really obvious signals.

The trading plan and the patterns that we use to trigger entries/exits need to be as automated as possible.  If we have to think whether this particular signals is good or not... we're going to end up missing it altogether or getting frustrated and taking off-plan trades.

Be automatic and accept that small losses are PART of the plan, not a failure.

We want to make trading as automatic as possible by developing good habits.  Nobody thinks about their habits when they're doing them, good or bad.

If you're overthinking, it may mean the plan is not as clear as it needs to be -- so work it out.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

July 11

Bernank lights up the world.

/tf 1030.8  o/n high

now 1029.7 at 8:05

gold up huge
/cl   over 107 o/n -- now RED -- just under ystdy close.

EWZ  3.9%
GDX 4.5%
gold 2.4
EEM 3.76%

TSLA, amzn, yhoo, aig, scty, gmcr ....

It's a bubble and ben loves it.

/es  1.05%   to 1665 - +17 o/n


so, how do we have a Trend day when the market already trended up o/n?  May not be so obvious.

underperformers like  EWZ, GDX, FXI -- strongest names.

watch the vol. on b/os after 3 touch bases.

/gc -- breaks TL -- for 50 ticks easy.

tf 1028

big gap open...

more double bottom entries -- /tf   / gc -- all good.

adrl: 1321 --- pullback to double bottom  o/n lows -- 30 tick bounce -- should have trie dthat with 10t stop.

tf - pop at 10:30 but ADVrl trending down still... and it's middle of o/n range -- no go.

adrld - keeping you off the long -- sliding 1074

rangebound action.

/cl - is trending -- so you can enter b/o wedge.

/tf is still in the 25m  OR -- so rangebound.

tried db long --

signals trending down with no confirmation -- and stopped, obviously....

puke candle takes out lows on triple bottom.


MUST HAVE SOME KIND OF CONFIRMATION - BETTER LATE AND RIGHT. early is wrong.

price action WITH market signals = a trade  --
must be the two together or you wait.

THEN you have to take it.  Can't hesitate.


Some common patterns today -- triple top as the AD trend down -- trying to fill a gap.

Then strength returns --- TL break + back tests get you in just as the trend starts.


Again - main thing here - is -- you have to wait for the best patterns.

There is the triple touch trendline -- with Market Signals trending down.
There is a b/o with small backtest (for extra confirmation) -- with strong Market Signals trending up.

And there is the responsive double top/bottom -- usually at key areas (o/n highs/lows) when the Market Signals are middling.

That's it.  The stops are never more than 9ticks -- all the entries work right away or you are wrong. So the winners will pay for at least 2 losers every time.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

July 10. Wed

FOMC at 2 pm -- so  get an early lunch.

europe weak o/n

China up  on extremely weak trade data.

/cl almost 105....

huge IBD names pushing yesterday.

PCLN, AWAY, YY, XONE, LGF,

PERI gapping up after heavy vol. yesterday.

a lot of weak stuff jumped ystdy -- xhb, cat, de --  cf, mos... are these buys?  Easy to get sucked into buying strong moves off weak charts.    don't.

$namo - 45   again... not much room for error -- in a squeeze.

symmetrical triple touches -- these nearly always form before a clear trend... could be same direction or could be a reversal.  Depends on context but this is the main entry that provides an edge.


11:28 --  double bottom with 5 am low -- rangebound strategy is on -- had to be willing to take the lows -- knowing signals were weak but not heavy -- bounced 25 ticks with no heat on the db pattern that is so common on Fed days -- no conviction so take the test area.

now we're back to yesterday's close / value  = nothing to do near noon time -- chop and drop but no big moves.


Range day

Only trades that paid well were double tops and bottoms -- there were THREE good trades.

Rangebound --


Tuesday, July 9, 2013

July 9 chart.

Strong day -- was correct to wait for long entry on first good set up.

gap up open, test of previous support, trend day

July 9

Gap up -- again.

tf   1011  at 7:53

TSLA added to QQQ.   2.4%

YY, SCTY, AMZN   strong.

GDX, GLD strong on China inflation data.

Tuesday...

IBD names, regional banks strong.

IYT broke TL to upside...   confirming.

QQQ up 9 days in a row.
NAMO 43...

oil flat 103.05.

PCLN 888 --   huge winner yesterday.

XHB -- under 50 day MA - lots of distribution.  Really not participating but it doesn't matter for now.

XLF - pushing hard - may hit new highs soon.

/tf -- ran up to 1013, TL break, double bottom 1009, back to 1011 -- small backtest of TL break.

premarket trading may be best to take double tops/bottoms as mostly rangebound but difficult with no Market Signals to work with.

SOYBEANS, CORN -- UP 1.4%  huge jumps --

CF, MOS may spark

Backtest entry for /tf -- right on  -- no heat as it backs down again 1010.  

/cl drops 102.77 -- o/n lows.


note: yesterday's failed trade -- triple bottom after a b/o -- but the adv-dec. never popped -- so it was a prone to failure.  Must have everything going our way.

/tf  1012.3   9 am.... .57%

TSLA, DDD, amzn, nflx, scty, irbt, aig, yy, snts, gmcr push.

/tf -- tl break / backtest -- and  pullback now to 1008.9 -- almost to the old high b/o  --

AD trending down to 300 at low.

big gravestone doji at the open was the signal to look for  short -- and that it was safe to get in for test of on low.

 /tf  lod  10:29 am --  look for 11:30 entry???

/tf 1014 --  just need to get on the TL and set tight stops -- the winners will take care of the losers.

Market Signals confirm -- you don't have to wait.

You just NEED 3 TOUCHES of  line.


AD  1100 -- no shorts possible... yet.

IYT  2.5%
XHB 2.12%

Dangerous market to short....    squeezing.  You need a TL to work with, not a hunch.

small p/b to 1013...

no TL formation..

ad 1200+
adr +700

double top?   too strong.   No TL.


can you short a triple top wit had +1200 and all signals bullish?  I just don't think so.

Need confirmation from somewhere.   Can't be purely a chart - has to be within context of the day.

triple top /es -- failed.    Internals in Trend up Day.

+700, +1200 adv-dec.

tf 1017 --

adrl 856

XHB -- ripping huge bounce  on   low vol.

AD 1390 --    
tf 1017.50 -- double top -- flattening adrl..   midday rangebound.


adrl  trending down 692 -- could look for a TL to surf down...

XHB -- still trending up.


AD  +1000  = no short set ups  period?  Would this save a lot of bad trades?
AD 1300+ today so definitely not.

/tf rolling back 1015

AD 1400... just too strong to tank so don't bother.

PERI   8.95% end of day.

1015 close....

power day.

charts later.

Monday, July 8, 2013

july 8

/tf takes out all time highs o/n  1009.4  -- blue skies.

now 1007.8 at 7 am.

/es tops 1638 - PERFECT 3 PT . TOUCH ON HOULY CANDLE , 3 DAY CHART.

all time high 1008.3 - now a double top area.   TL break +double top at known resistance.  May be ideal short?

premarket prone to breaking established lines.

IBD names extremely green pm.

TSLA, SNTS, ACAD, DDD, GPS, FSLR, DB, BAC, AAPL

PCLN +16 points.    to 872.


1008 holding.

gld, gdx higher on some calls. 

/cl  down 1% -- finally.

scty, ddd, pcln,  superstrong.



1008.3   acting like res.

1008.5  at 11am

excellent Market Signals... need signficant time to fade.

many new 52 wk highs printing.

NXST, SNTS, NGVC

1:20   tf 1006

signal earlier for 30 t drop - then spike back up -- now wavering again

ad 390 --


utilities leading.

2:45   Big wedge sets up -- won't get out of  it.

1008 ...

ad 399

/tf -- stalled

lost 5 ticks on triple bottom --  I think it was a good trade....  signals were strong.   but

AD  at 350 and never budged on intial b/o of wedge -- dead market here -- just too extended.

/tf -- breaks lower

Strong IBD names but XLU leading and /nq red...     NAMO extended... could not trend anymore.


Had to recognize rangebound -- look for a double bottom entry.



Friday, July 5, 2013

reminder on trend trading.

If signals/market is in uptrend, you can take the 5min TL break plus small test.

If there's an established TL down, going to need the 1 hour rule.

July 5: 5 min chart

Easy entries.

Strong internals, good jobs data...

A full gap fill and run.

That end of day run featured advrl over 1000...  pushing -- clear as day.  After 998 - there was nothing to do but hold. But so few are able to follow a trend all the way.

Patience got you a clean double bottom set up early and another one end of day for the end of day run.

/tf strong day off the gap fill bottom and power finish.


Also note on the first double bottom - that required at least 1 hour from the time of the low of day to confirm a base -- and the bottom occurred about 1 hour 10 min. after the low print.


No need to anticipate anything.  The patterns will arise each day in different times, but will invariably be the same TL formation and test of sup/res (double bottoms).

You don't need to know the future because your risk management takes you out fast and leaves you in slowly so it creates a CP plan.


July 5

Gap up on ECB comments - dovish.


/tf hit 1003 now 998  --

data at 8:30

/cl hit 102.19 -- highs by one tick, stop hunt and backed off.

/tf had 3rd touch entry at 6:10 am -- now 20t lower.

Wed. close was 989


50 ma  daily  -- above SPY -- bull is back

/tf 1004 -- nhod.

payrolls crush it.

/ym  172 points ---   pm  blam.

very sloppy  --

1004 to 1000.5.

/tf back under 1000

strong: TSLA, AIG, YHOO, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, LNKD, SCTY, IRBT, SODA, CREE

tf 999  at 9:00

tf gives up entire pop  997.3

997   lows


994

ad  1080 -- trending down from high open.



10:23 - low of day
need 1 hour base to get long.... rules.

11:23 -- TL test
AD  664
volrd 8.5

993.2 entry 10t stop long.

IBD names  green.
IYT, XLF green.
oil strong.


heard on stocktwits with /cl at highs:

$CL_F is going up because it and $DX_F are only futures products "going up" for weeks and plenty of market participants "don't short" Bullish
$CL_F ... and nothing is going to stop that trend anytime soon Bullish
 
 So -- what do you think?

-3 ticks.  /tf -- out - paper money.


/tf -- strong bounce off 1 HOUR TL   - which also was gap fill from Wed.

and now dead money midday.

/tf  996.4

internals rising -- have to stay long if you were long.  Certainly no short setting up.

tf 999
 
internals keep rising.
 
 
tf closes at 1003 on massive surge internals.  
 
easy entry at 98 caught 50 .
 
 

Monday, July 1, 2013

July 1

New month.


/tf   double tops out at 6 am -- again -- best entries in the past week have been premarket (mostly fading highs).

O/n strength.  

/gc off the floor

ONXX - major buyout.

IBD names strong.

/tf  .43%
/es .44

TSLA pt raised.

AAPL -- strong 402 pm.


SHORT  977.6 -  TRIPLE TOUCH TL AND BREAK   8:21

problem is:   market signals are too strong PM -- not in synch with price action.  May have just shorted the low...

scratched  /tf   +2 ticks.

Simply too much strenght pm to justify taking no-vol. entry here.    Especially on 1st of new month.

some of the data from europe was positive, + Australia... so lot of reasons to elevate.

5 min ch. still in downtrend --  looking very mixed.    gap fill target...

/cl pushing higher.

and that's  20 ticks from 977.6 entry short...   don't think!  The patterns will stop you out -- the more you interefere with the process, the worse the outcome.

25 ticks.

The ONLY signals that aren't noise is the chart.  Period.

/tf   974  -- red now.   from 982   o/n high - -double top.

and bounce
976.6  

triple touch. small. 

ADrl 1151 , UD huge --  get OUT The way.

1st of month....      983 -- clear skies /tf      busting the doors.

indices - at 50 day MA daily -- push?

10 points top to bottom --   /tf  and /es  approx.   ???  toppish?  or more?

more for now.  signals powerful.

10:50 --   and   /tf  breaks up   987 -- 1 hour rule saves a bad short entry.

1.23%  /tf  .... 

IBD powerful

IYT  1.34%
XHB  1.61%
10 am  strong data.

11:35 --   BREAK!!!!!!

signals break with /tf


990!!!

great discipline -- never got a short signal.   Never thought about it.  

UD  nhod.

990 - stall....  /tf 2% day! huge.  Easy to get trapped into thinking p/b

qqq regains 50 day MA.  IYT 50 day MA....

Dow 147+

$vix -4.7%

/es  - note AD  topped out at 10:05...  so there's that.  But that's not enough.

1:37 --   ad  1313

/tf -- setting up short but need at least an hour    990.7

UD - keeps drifitng higher.

flop around 2 pm -- 988

IBD names are SOLID.

aegr, yy, tsla, ngvc, xone, lgf, nflx scty, saia, imos



difficult day because the first entry was so fast  -- and then you had to really wait for a safe short -- TL break -- and then double top and finally -- a descending TL  to capture max 50 tick move

/es was better because it was weaker and provided much better downside movement.   So again -- watch both markets -- if shorting, focus on the weaker market.


Friday, June 28, 2013

Friday chart:

there was a trade premarket short on the TL formation then break.


after dropping --  uvol-dvol and adv-dec break upward and the 5 min TL breaks as well - allowing a long attempt that is good.

price moves back to the original short area.

Again -- we are looking for the symmetry of TL formation -- go with the line as long as the internals are also moving the same way.

End of day a crazy drop but the 5 min TL had broken and even started to form a 3 touch right before the plummet.

This chart is just the morning bounce trade -- when I'm using 1 min candles still -- noticed the internals turn up and then the TL broke and made a small double bottom.

/tf: 1 min candles for the first 90 min.


I am using 1 min. candles for the first 90 min -- easier to see.   After that, 1 min. candles create too much noise -- and 5 min. candles are better - even if they feel like you can't see the details.

/tf opex Friday, end of qtr craziness

Jun 28

 internals mostly negative ....


was an entry premarket then return back near highs and again - drop to  yesterday's close -- so very inefficient.


half IBD names decent.

Gold dipped o/n but pushed higher --

end of qtr.  -- may see strength into weekend.  Friday opex...   too many reasons to stay high.

/es near 1600 - but above easily.



strong:  OAS, NTES, JAKK, AG, amba, rrts,


also:  XONE, SCTY, gmcr, fslr, mdso, gpor

ad 400
adrl: 100  dropping

tf 979 -- near triple top -- into the weekend   eoq push.

think shorts could get ripped up here...

TL intact   4 touches -- TICK solid.

2;42 -  BreAK === WATCH IT.

NOT READY YET.

regains TL.

no 3 touch TL - hasn't been an hour.

end of day shenanigans.... wow.  

my 5 min TL trend follow system might have gotten you short 10 min. before el plunge-o.


Thursday, June 27, 2013

June 27

getting to end of month.


payroll data strong --

/es  blows thru 1600 to 1606  -- at 8:40

IBD names strong.

market may be in a range...   correction talk is premature.


but we're looking for 5 min TL formations then breaks - based on market signals.

/es break this morn. was at 7:30 am -- gotta be up and ready.

/tf -- hit yesterday high TO THE TICK and backs off...    knowing sup/res. can help you nail it.

/tf - breaks ystdy high...


market blazing hot at the open again.

tsla, fslr, scty , gmcr, wdc strong.

10:01 -- adv-dec --  TL break?????  top    1611.50??????

market stalls after 972 --

rules:   1 hour 3 touch pattern min.  for short --

market signals   adv-dec.  dropping , uvol solid

needs time or else more upside.

ad  1315

need to see some serious divergence to take a short here -- one way trade indeed.

/tf  much strong than  /es   /ym -- so you have to respect and follow the signals -- new highs

974  at noon...

975 was target mentioned premarket.

noon:   tf   - clear 5 min TL --   testing it now.  

ad 1267 --


11:55  top?

need 50 min. to confirm.

did not wait for 50 min TL -- therefore -- off plan trades = losers.

975 target hit.

975.7 was 61.8% fib from 999 to 938 -- missed by TWO TICKS

1:58 - TF  cracks  TL -- here --

gold plummets to 1200...

2;09 - TL broken -- 5 min candles printing below --   still waiting for 1 hour at least for dTL to form.

TF - triple touch but it's only been 40 min.  

Market signals are VERY strong.

UD - nhod.  so can't short it.

tf - breaks TL upside.... push.

figured.

long the TL break....   never too high to buy.

adv:  1376

UDrl: nhod

61.8% fib --    value

/tf Trend up day with Fib Retracement levels in play


Wednesday, June 26, 2013

June 26

/tf -- 110 ticks o/n  top to bottom

.59%  premarket gap UP

/gc  crushed -- dead dead dead.

TSLA, AIG, FSLR, YHOO, DB strong..     xlf looks strongest --


data at 8:30 -- in 2 min.

GDP  1.8%  - slow.... 

qe talk -- pumps it up.

TLT, /zb solid -- fear is gone today.

nearing end of month.


BLOX, EPAM, ILMN --  these are the names.

THRM possibly.

IWM - gap up OVER 50 DAY ma  daily --   !!

/tf --  nhod -- 9:03    964

market loves it -- can't taper with weak GDP.

over 50 day MA resumes uptrend on close above.

5 min TL breaks --  can get you everything you need.
bleh.

Why do traders say they miss trades?  They didn't take it?
And how are professional traders different?

I think pros are rigorous in their routine and plan.  They know what they need to see.  They stick to it. So there's a lot less thinking. 

An amateur spends a lot of time thinking: Should I take this trade?
They also spend a lot of time worried, fearful, bored.  They take early profits because they are worried - it's not part of the plan but their plan is flexible to the point of being arbitrary.  So they don't win much even when they were dead on.  Even when they follow their plan -- or at least the entry part, because they don't follow the other part of letting winners run when there's no exit signal.

If you're struggling, look at what you're doing.  Is it the same plan every day?  Or are you changing things up a little based on little nudges from the twitter feed or a website or news channel.  If you're trading price action -- all these things, your opinions, other people's opinions, are noise.  So you have to have a very clear plan to focus on and you'll automatically ignore noise because it's not showing up in your charts.

 Your plan can be as simple as following TL breaks with some accompanying market signals to confirm the move.  You can have price levels of sup/res. that can help really pinpoint those areas of major support / resistance and allow you to exit easily.

But first, you have to be willing to be consistent.

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

June 25:

/tf up .74%

China relief.

MPC, VLO - refiners strong ?

DDD, YHOO, TSLA, FSLR, GS, XHB  look solid.

housing data 8:30

LEN - gap up -    xhb solid now.

strong data --  dollar spikes....   /tf /es  pause....

VLO   2.55%
MPC 2.3%  - touched 200 day MA daily ystdy -

NOAH, YY --  china names off the bottomy bottom.

dow  109 pts. gap up start...

/tf - triple touch base  and now 42tick blast -- new highs   9:16

always triple touch kicks off the move.

/tf -- rip into open --  50t off triple touch.  

958.6 is the close from Friday.

rangebounding here -- have to catch the edges -- 3 touch lines


midday trading is simply suckish.  You're getting fucked trying to play this dead zone.

excellent strength - -/tf breaks   3 hour decision wedge

wedge break +backtest...   here we go?   12:44???????

choppy midday --

strong market but  daily downtrend holds it

Decision wedge building  /tf

breaks to upside....  internals support

AD 1700 rising ... stay on

ramp to Friday close -- and 1 tick shy.

Very nice day if you can be patient and wait for the setup.

Monday, June 24, 2013

June 24

gap down

china -5.3% - no big bank save.


/tf  946.6  - starting  here right ON Friday low of the day  -- but holds.

-1.11%

/es  1567 --  below  Fri lod.

long way to go on daily chart to touch fib levels.

STEC +86%  pm.  You never know...

FSLR green.

weak:  aig, tsla, yhoo, amzn, goog

/tf - has already bounced 40t off lows -- plenty of swing.

/es  - actually bounce 10 points off pm lows.

/tf -- 940

-1.8%

dow -200 midday chop

UD - trending lower.


tl establised -- /tf tests...


advrl from   -1600 to -700 -- and over 150 tick bounce.

Best entry was 9 am but there was a chance to play the bounce -- /dx weakness and oversold conditions for a nice swing.   


Friday, June 21, 2013

June 21 4x Fri.

quadruple ex Fri.

/tf - 8 am -- right on  ysterday close.  

/gc  -drop and bounce o/n.

green:  TSLA, ACAD, YHOO, OAS, DB, BAC, FDX, AAPL,



health of the market broke down fast yesterday.  Biggest vol. in SPY, XHB in over a year -- pure downside.  Will require time to heal.

Statistically bounce likely today.

/nq - strongest.

lot of premarket green.

long 2 /nq -- premarket on TL support. 
stopped -2.

/tf RED again. 

/tf - 3rd touch of support line   -.13%   with IBD leaders mostly green -- seems HIGHLY divergent.
8:39 am.

955.5 entry -- 10t stop.

internals weakening -- but quite firm -- bulls in control

ad  +1000

don't get too bearish. 

JNK, IYR, EEM green.

but IYT red still


Daily market in downtrend --  sell rip market.

/tf - breaks wedge -- and 950 is new support --       AD slides to negative.

wedge break + small backtest -- classic entry

use 1 min candles for first hour.

/tf - breaks DT


key risk management -  expect to be right , right away.  Therefore -- stop is tight!

midrange entry with   AD  near flat = no trade.

into midday chop - -game just got a lot harder.... have to recognize -- lay off midday

internals take it to new lows

951 breaks

ad -100

ad -200

midday into opex close -- poor environment


midday -- triple bottom /tf -- then news from fed --

/es ramps back to   closing ystdy. price.

/tf  breaks 5 min tl -- forms flag .... entry of flag b/o --- 60 ticks off bottom - leads to 55 MORE ticks from this midrange pattern entry.

and /tf  back to 960 -- top of morning range.

fast ramp.  tick, ad, UD support.

DOLLAR is now perfectly  inverse correlated to market - good indicator.


internals go positive --  /tf back to 960.5 -- to the tick high -- and hovering near unch. - probably for rest of day.

/es hovering at unch. level.  

IYT, XHB red --- not good

mixed signals at 2:45 -- absolutely no way -- no decent R:R even if a pattern developed.

3 pm - big spike UD -- may be a push to 96 pin -- entry for 20 ticks attempt.

AD - flat
ADrl - 330   could push... to unch.

and 20 ticks.

triple top 960.5ish.

triple top --

JNK, XHB, IYT red.

dollar pops

/tf  back to unch.

got as high as old resistance area on 1 hour ch.  broke the triple top - just stop hunt.


Some classic entries for the patient investor.


Thursday, June 20, 2013

June 20 - DOW -353

Sometimes you can get a great short even when the market is already down a lot.


You wait for all the signals to line up.

If AD is rising... then wait it out -- you'll eventually see the synchronicty in the form of a TL or double top/bottom... alerting you to the edges (and hence, where to place a stop).

Midday is nearly always a difficulty choppy time.

The eventual plummet - which was obvious due to extreme AD reading, resolved just after 2 pm and gave you everything you were looking for fast and easy.  Did you stay out until then?

Do you have the patience to wait for the set up?




June 20:

gap down post FED.


SPY  gaps down BELOW 50 DAY MA  DAILY.

Major breakdown.

/gc down 82 points!

/tf  970 -- triple bottom at 9 am.

-1.2%

EEM -2%

9:05 - vol. dump   /tf


uvol-dvol -  lower all day --  major capitulation.

XHb loses TL since Nov.

SPY / QQQ loses 50 day MA daily.

correction mode again.

LGND - 14%  winner.

horrible horrible weakness.

Market keeps repeating itself.  Endless cycle of dashed dreams.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

June 19 - Wed, Fed Day

/tf - climbs to Tues. highs... forms triple top.

/cl over 99 -- massive uptrend.

more good news for BA.

ATRO raging on daily - aerospace.



When I see ppl predicting prices - I stop following  -- waste of time.

When I see ppl acting like doctors, diagnosing strength and sickness of the market via critical signals -- I am very interested.  This is what we are: doctors of finance.  We observe the patient and make our recommendations based on observation and then test to see whether the medicine is correct.

premarket chop near highs from yesterday... 

/tf fills gap - touches  ystdy close - bounce hard.

/ym now trading below ysty close.

/nq - strongest market.

/tf - FLAT  to the tick...      gonna be a snooze day until 2 pm.

/es - broke yesterday highs by 1 tick this morning before going it all back... red now.

FDX beat.

/ym - that was some wild sloppy o/n moves.  

VVUS????    in play for sure.

futures at ystdy close levels -- very flat... waiting on Fed.

VVUS in play.

nq/ym green

/tf  991.50 --  support hit - broke -- bottom?

internals getting worse..   stay out.

chart later.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

June 18: pre Fed day.

Once again - ramp overnight to yesterday highs -- and beyond.


/tf pushing to 990

and just takes out ystdy highs at 5:50 - backs down 30 ticks.

Have to be willing to responsively enter  double tops/bottoms in this market -- b/os are failing -- reversing quickly.

Algos willing to let things run but not the usual entry.

/zb   - new lows....   rates rising.  Direct correlation now = usually bearish.


IWM leading -- risk on.
weak /zb does not matter so far.

anticipate range day?  Look for the edges.   5:50 am already the top.



adv-deck 575
IBD leaders strong

nq, es ym  stronger than /tf  --

Fed tomorrow.

advrl  1240 --

low volume ramp.  Have to be willing to go with it.  

advrl - trending down at 3:05 --   rainbow?

Two possible entries -- the responsive entry for the whole enchilada and the safe one.


Super low volume today.

Strong internals.  Don't be a hero.  When the herd buys, just say moo and buy.

Monday, June 17, 2013

3 main futures trades:

1.  Triple touch on a 2 - 5 day chart -- enter responsively on major TL touch for a big swing.

2. Wedge b/o -- going with the herd after decision wedge builds up.  Works when Market Signals are trending in direction of b/o.

3. Double bottoms -- these can occur out of nowhere.  Also responsive entry -- works if you are going WITH Market Signals -- but obviously - you are taking location and hoping it sticks so almost a countertrade entry.



If the entries are correct, the stop outs will be for 10ticks max and usually lowered to b/e half the time.




adv-dec  dripping all day after gap up open.

fake b/os and b/d today -- just a whipsaw midday -- market gaming the gamers.

ADVrl-DECrl --  dropping all day -- so no surprise it double bottoms and keeps going.   Direction matters more than value.

We only make money guessing direction correctly.  If we start high and drop lower - it's down. 


/tf: inside out day, near gap fill, sharp bounce to TL

June 17: Monday

/tf   gap up 1.1%  to  987.2

up: NFLX, AIG, BAC, TSLA, SCTY, GOOG, AMZN, SODA, GMCR

watch financials...  -- very strong.


all indices above 50 day MA -- don't overthink the uptrend. It's an uptrend.


Focus on /tf -- the   sup/res. levels.

The Market Signals.

8:52:  5 min  TL test   /tf --   holding on.  

$5 bil POMO today -- helping??

/tf  1%  gap up.

gap fill: 977ish.

Your system must allow a way for winners to stay on and run.

/tf - small decision wedge builds now.

after a wedge break -- the stop must be at least the break or backtest -- not the TL down.


flatish day...

Saturday, June 15, 2013

Things that Make You Not CP

1. Focusing on too many markets.

Why?  Easy to get distracted, bored.


2. Taking non-plan trades.

Why?  Getting impatient.  Getting impulsive.

3. Taking profits too early.

Why?  Impatient.  Fear of giving back.


Impatience. Fear. 

Is there really anything more?  Either we're bored... and make mistakes: overtrade, take excessive risk, oversize...

or we don't take trades/exit early:  becoming far too risk-adverse when it finally is time not to do so. 


This is the self-mastery part of the game.  You push through feelings of boredom by going over the plan... researching... but you cannot deviate from a set plan/pattern.

You must also stop yourself from ending trades too early, limiting every big winner into a tiny winner. 

When you conquer impatience and fear... everything will fall into place.  But it starts with becoming highly self-aware during the trading day and not merely afterward.  You are not the same person trading as at night.  So develop a monitor for yourself along with market signals.