Friday, May 31, 2013

May 31

end of month, and FRIDAY, + pomo

Do you really think we can go down???????

Of course not.  Of course not. 

You should already know before the day begins we must go up.  Automatic..  It's just a matter of waiting for the break.

5 min TL breaks.  You really don't need anything else.  If it works - you get 20, 30 or more.

If you lose you lose -10 max.

Find the line.

Enter the line.  Set a stop.

Manage your stop.

That last entry actually had 130ticks but whatever.

The ability to hold is a pyschological issue.

I can't tell you how often I hear people talk about huge winners.  Except they sold for 2 points instead of 50 "for some reason".  Usually it's "got nervous".  It's always the same.  The trader beats himself.  No one trades the market.  You trade yourself.  You master yourself.  Never the markets.

Some people think their method is superior but it  isn't.  They've just mastered themselves using a system that takes into account one's own personal psychology.  Some ppl can't hold for 100 ticks but they can take 2 pts. a day. That can work.

Just figure out what works for you.  And know that you will always be your worst enemy.  Check your own internals daily like you do the adv-dec ratio.  You'd be surprised how often you can overcome an emotional issue just by being aware and knowing the action you're about to take does not follow the system you put in place to override it. 

Thursday, May 30, 2013

May 30

10 pt move in an hour  /es  - premarket....

Have to be prepared all the time.

6:20 am early bird special.

/tf  good for 8 pts.

FSLR, TSLA... again strong.

/zb red.
/gc is showing signs of life after the double bottom on daily ch.

Brazil hiked rates....  first time I've heard a cb doing that.    EWZ  -6% ytd.  Inflation growing... hmm, you don't say?  Everyone else seems to have no problem.

note: /tf touched yesterday's high to the TICK and reverses... off 13t now.

lots of data today...   always seems like frontrunning positive news.

was not here this mornig.

1:53:  AD +760 appear to be creeping up -- powerful internals, great leadership.  Not much to feel bearish about at all.  /gc up too.

Note the entry today was almost exactly at a key time: 11:30 - euro close.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

May 29

Market just needed to get into synch -- wedged up - -and the break was easy entry.

/tf; Powerfully weak internals - but had to wait for set up.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

May 28:

off Mon. holiday.

/tf  994 -- bam -- 100 ticks off the break above the  25m OR on Mon.  -- on the shortened day.

Ain't no weakness up in here.

VRX 8% on news.

TSLA 100 premarket!  -- IBD classic. They'll write stories about this one.

DB 3.2%

tf  +1% premarket - -that's actually kind of bonkers... now what?

HTZ - barron's article... 3.7%
FSLR 2.3
FNMA  +13%   bonkers
TSLA 103....

/tf  triple touch -- and drops back into 25m OR despite +1000 AD -- tricky day.  Respecting TL formation keeps you on the strong side both ways -- now unclear in the zone.

/tf  - cuts below 25m OR   AD +600  
IBD names super strong...

rainbow  - gap fill?

and I was too nervous to short the lows.... 50 tick drop from the OR low b/d....

signals are not as important as WHICH WAY THEY ARE TRENDING - THAT'S INFORMATION THAT'S helpful.

14:45:   end of dt for the day????

When premarket is strong -- can confidently enter on the TL.

Friday, May 24, 2013

May 24

Market breaks 25 min opening range -- for 30 tick drop.

Then chop until  11:30  euro close and we see movement above the OR.

First test entry with 10t stop is good for a run -- although it required holding through a p/b to the OR high - to the tick...

Market essentially topped out right at yesterday's high of the day -- but managed to push even higher AH.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

May 23:

Market opens with massive weak Adv. Dec.

Deep oversold though -- so wait -- be patient and look for synchronization to build.

 Eventually a decision wedge emerges, adv.-dec is trending up.

11:05: breakout and a long here is successful... rises -- and forms a 3 touch support line which serves as a new stop area -- is never broken rest of day.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

may 22

watched /gc breakout --  perfect entry...    80 tick move.  Just watched the perfect trade premarket.

I hate that missing moves often feels worse than losing money.  /gc is so crazy but I've seen it do this before - spike premarket.

/tf walking back up to 999.

LOW missed
TGT weak.
TSLA weak.
NPSP - strong

goal: take a great set up.  Don't worry about being wrong.  Control your emotions.  Just manage the trade.  If you miss a trade, you have to wait.  Can't take a weak trade to get something going.

Don't try to overthink. You are trading with yourself, not the market.  You beat yourself. The market doesn't beat you.  You don't need to know what's going to happen to make money. You just need to know what you are going to do to manage risk.


One way to trade futures is to use the opening 1/2 hour range to establish control.  Once it breaks above, there's a high probability of catching a trend.  Inside the range can be nothing but chop. Today's unusual reversal -- finally -- featured breakouts on both sides.

/tf: wide range reversal candle. Entry on break of 1/2 hour range wins

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

may 21

ad 400

/tf  rising  above  o/n high -- push right off....

ad -459

serious weakness
UD -35
/zb almost green.

a  lot of momo red.

bios doing ok.

/gc - tested, bounced back up a bit...

/tf trying for 1000 again

/es -- clean  double bottom test of lows and then rip to new highs.... was easier chart.

AD 500
/tf  goes for 1000 -- almost there.

biotechs leading with financiaclas.

Two clearest entries on this chart for me were shorts...

/tf: every day the lines of sup/res are redrawn

Monday, May 20, 2013

May 20

premarket:  /tf  down .37
DB red.
/zb green.

strong:  QIHU, SCTY, LNG, FSLR, DDD, AMBA, WBSN buyout. WCRX buyout, solars, UNG

weak:  gold, silver plunge - and bounce. GREK -3.7% after extension

DB -2% -- fairly heavy. 

At best, market will be conflicted.  
/tf -.4  at 9 am.

AMBA - b/o - 52 week nh  pm.
RSOL, CSIQ -- small solars   20%  movers --

/tf - breaks dt.   991.4  9:27

vix 5.7% --  hmmm -- out of place.

some weakness after  /tf  breaches 1000....  whew.

WLT  9.2%

There was one entry in /tf that I saw:

/tf: 1000 touched.  And rejected.

GLD chart

Check out this chart from for GLD

Visit to see more great charts.

Friday, May 17, 2013

/tf Friday

Two obvious entries.

AD +1000 Trend Day - only take longs

thursday /tf - 3rd touch is the charm (again)

So obvious.  You just had to wait and wait - -ALL DAY and then it was a slam dunk.

/tf Weak internals all day finally succumbs to a great set up

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

May 15

lots of data coming out at 8:30 and 10...

top of channel... on low vol.

A pullback to the rising TL makes sense today --  we're running out of buyers at extended levels.

TSLA, DDD  momo names are out of gas.
nvmd -- tsla green again.

soda, nflx, goog, gmcr green...     hard to commit new money up here on  extended charts.

DB green -- usually a bullish sign.
soda, nflx, mygn, tsla, goog, fslr, meli, yhoo, aig, gild green -- shorts might just get jammed again.

today's mistakes: Had two trades that would have paid the bills but took them off way too soon. You don't know what's going to happen.  Can't cut your winners short.

what I did well: Had 3 losses and I let the stops take me out and did not get crushed at all. 

Best trade I saw all day was a short on the classic WEDGE and b/d for /tf

/tf Another ripper but sellers finally got some action

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

May 14 Trend Day

Had to be ready to jump in at the open.  I missed it.

Same as daily chart entries.  Bullish wedge breaks - take it. 

/tf Have to be ready, set up and open were best entry. RTH was holding on.

Monday, May 13, 2013

May 13:

/es -.23
/tf -.18  to 971.3 at 8am


NOK continues.

macro:  JJG -- grains, sugar - continue to distribute down since the top LAST AUGUST.  Fighting this trend has been futile. Sugar prices have been trending down for over a year.

TSLA 81... dang.

DB -1.2%  europe weak
FXI --  looks like TL break for China possibly.

AMBA -- must be news... strong.

peri 14%

Israel - joins the rate cut game.  Nobody in the world wants a strong currency.  Let the games go on. and on. and on.

high short momo is strong - fslr, tsla, nxst, wmbd.
steel, coal, oil names look weaker.

looking for 968 -- first support area.

wide swings today  = lots of indecision

AD -933    bears  'should' be in control.

but TSLA, FSLR -- controlling the shorts.

Wedge Pattern intraday: could either buy responsively on 3rd touch or wait for confirmation of b/o and enter there.

/tf Indecision then b/o leads to run to top of channel

This pattern is common in /tf -- decision wedge in the morning. 

Friday, May 10, 2013

May 10 Friday.

opex fri. 

/gc  tanking premarket
/cl also breaking down.

DB -1.5%
dollar strong.

MGA - autoparts -- strong ER.  

IYT - had a bearish engulfing yesterday daily.

red day today - should 'confirm' a slight p/b  -- but market likely fight to stay green.

MT  7%  --  continue to see SLX  sector on uptrend.  
X 1.5%

/cl -- huge drop almost completely reversed.

nearly 300 tick swing.  

AD 415 -- going up to the close....

coal names;  WLT, CLF strong.

bios strong

tsla, mygn, byd, soda podd, fslr, gme, qihu...

The TL formed midday.

Best entry here:

/tf patience until the support line entry forms


Support and resistance is always forming.

The earliest you can safely say a support or resistance area has formed is always the third touch.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

May 9 - half day

Caught this entry.  Need to let it ride.

Right down to the tick where it bounced yesterday.

/tf surprisingly, best morning move was a short to support
Should clarify.

The confirmed entry was the TL break but one could have attempted a responsive entry much earlier on the 3rd touch.  (always the 3rd touch) and gotten the entire move. 

Internals were weak from the start.  It's all fumes and QE keeping things running and the excitement of GMCR and TSLA burning shorts to the ground.  But the internals got you a nice short and another one in the afternoon that fizzled. 

As long as your timeframe is intraday, shorting is just fine. 

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

may 8: The Bull Continues

IYT - worst etf premarket
/tf red.

xhb, xlf and DB red.
/zb green.

Sellers in control.

AD 500 --

and buyers grinding it and grinding it.

AD 110

running out of power... dangerous to enter the bottom now.

choppy day.

got 3 ticks...  but my entry in the afternoon was spot on -- could easily have had 25 ticks.

/tf - took out lows before ramp to highs: still bullish

Tuesday, May 7, 2013


You simply had to look for longs today.

Europe was up, IYT, XLF was up, IBD leaders were up.  Adv-Dec was 700+ at the low of the day.

Various entry points allowed you to get long while keeping risk under 10 ticks. 

The hardest part of a raging bubble is holding on.

tf: Trend Up day Market Signals: Enter support or b/o of patterns

Monday, May 6, 2013

Monday TF

I see 5 spots to get long today.

3 of them were in the morning.  All these entries would require a minimum of 8tick stop.  I find 11 is more than enough.

bull market: you just need to find a good spot to GET LONG

AD was muted but mostly over 400 most of the day.  So had to pick the spots.

The test of the o/n lows is clearly the most difficult to enter but really, it's a test of support.  There was a similar entry late in the day.

If you needed more confirmation you could wait until the full b/o of the decision wedge.  These entries happen all the time and the provide naturally solid R:R. They either work right away or they don't.  You never need a 'wide stop'.


Fib LineRetracementshas been placed.  50% retrace is 1595 on /es

939.5  is 50% on /tf

/cl rising on   syria/israel.

Market digesting big move.

Triple top TL formed on /es -- normally this is a short entry but Market Signals too strong to bother. 

1609 short?   Doubt it works but the TL has formed.

1610 -- just a bullish wedge - new highs?   No reason to take a short.

push in the morning and a little squiggle last hour.

Had two 12 tick trades and a few small losses for 19 ticks total. 

I give it a  C-

Things are very clear on 5 min candle chart today.

will post chart later.

Thursday, May 2, 2013

May 3

what happened today:

strong 900 AD

but tf stalled.

Had to wait for support line to develop.

Pennant built -- AD stayed strong nearly 1000 -- bounced a few times in the wedge.

Correct entry was 3rd touch around 10 am -- so many times 10 am is bottom
and then move to top of wedge and b/o

Stay long -- AD increasing to 1100 - up to 1550... 

Set Fib levels due to huge drop yesterday.

In fact, TF got to 61.8 fib

another 120 tick day if done right.

Morning is often chop for 10 to 30 min. then resolution and big trend lately.

/cl had an even wider range. 

Key is to watch morning closely - can take early entry on support or wait for confirmation break but either way -- go with Market Signals.

And stay with extreme AD readings.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

may 1

AD -900

long attempts are futile -- too strong - Trend Day so far.

AD  -1100 

/tf  down  14 points --  blam. 

-1200 AD -- been a while since we've seen that.

-1000 ad -- FOMC in afternoon --

chop until then?

continue to grind down -- after window dressing -- I noted Twitter was 100% bullish and now we see -- there are no buyers left up here.

/tf  down 2%

AD -1200

it's a sudden rush to the exits but everyone is a technical trader so they don't want to step in -- so vacuum selling. 

Always fade extreme sentiment.

tf formed a descending TL with 3rd touch at 7:50 -- set up was early -- for OVER 200 ticks of downside.

/gc  did a 4 touch for over 330 ticks downside.

I'm thinking 5 min candles are better -- too much noise on 1 min timeframe -- no valid patterns.

saw the perfect entry - caught TNA .10 from low of day - -based on 5 min location.  Did not feel good but TL are self-fulfilling -- people tend to herd... and thus -- you have to hold them when they work and wil pay for the failures.

My system will involve a LOT of waiting for proper setups.  Accepting the nonaction is critical.  This is not easy. 

AD -1300   pain train.