Tuesday, April 30, 2013

what's not working/

impatience... every day.

The setups I need are clear as day and instead... I keep taking something else.

1. DO NOT TRADE PREMARKET unless there is significant volume.

2. Wait for the pattern to develop.

3. Take a break.

Once again /tf --   DROP morning --   bottom between 10 - 10:05 (10:03)

TL break, retest -- 30ticks . no heat.   It's that easy.  And you can't do it. 


1. TOUCH of multiday on 15m or HOURLY chart - major trend, responsive entry

2. intraday: TL break and backtest entry

3. intraday WEDGE - enter responsively or on b/o. (follow intraday trend)

This is all I need to trade.

Well -- horrible day.  That's why I trade paper for now. 

Stops were too tight.

Missed the morning move... and afternoon was, as usual, a deathtrap of meagre opportunities.

Meagre.  Cuz I like to be a little British sometimes.

AD  +900  have to be long /tf  end of day now.  

finally got +19 ticks end of day --- could have been 30... on the more than obvious squeeze.

morning/end of day --- middle is WASTE OF TIME>

3 good trades to take today.

end of day - ramp the close day /tf

Monday, April 29, 2013

Apr 29

dollar sinking so market rising...

SINA -- purchasse +16%  insider buyingon Fri.
AAPL strong.

zb - has flipped green though

/gc - strong run into hourly 3 touch.

Seeing p/b at 8:30 now.

IBD names mostly solid.
DB  1.5%
XLF green

Fed buying /zb  today -- so strong.

and /cl pops to first resistance - taking out stops as I expected.  thru Friday HoD.

STUPID - taking early entries -- almost always a mistake.

10 am - pending home sales -- ramp

/tf 940.9 

AD 1400+
TICK stays over -200  -- obvious

nailed the entry.
early exit was disaster.

switch to 5 min candles in slow chop -- pattern will form - but don't take noise, fake patterns.

12 - lunch time -- waited until eveyrone left then kicked it up --

es -- breaks thru Thurs.  highs.

END OF MONTH -- seen this before -- ramp ramp ramp.  

AD 1460.   all day long, no profit taking.

Today's best trade as usual, was in the morning.  It looked like this, and this pattern should be familiar by now.

Market Internals super strong. Get it all done in the AM

Friday, April 26, 2013


AD -700 most of day  on Friday.

Not gonna rally -- best trade was lunchtime off the lows -- and the opening move into the dTL.

 Finding 14 tick stops are needed on responsive entries -- 8 on the TL break +retest.

nice 43ticks today papertrading  on 2 /tfs and 1 /cl! trade.  including a 3rd /tf (only loser).  Very pleased although the first trade nailed the morning high and could have been over 80 ticks.

3 very good trades were present today - but I missed the lunchtime one.

Opex day: some nice moves short and long.

Friday's are usually boring but I find you have to be extra diligent if you want to find the entries.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

April 25th /tf

There were basically two good trades today - the morning TL break and retest and then an afternoon short TL break and retest.  That short did NOT look or feel like a short at all.  But the chart was right.  If you listened to your feelings or the markets -- you would have felt scared.

There was an attempt to stophunt it but I did enter realtime papertrading and an 8 tick stop would have avoided the wick back to the entry and gotten a nice short out of what appeared to be an all up trend day.

/tf: Trend up to start -- TL break and brief test and off it goes.


Anything can happen.
Every day is unique.
You don't need to know what's going to happen.
But you do have to stick to your plan through it all.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Wed Apr 24:

Interesting day.

Pennant, then small pennant, pennant again...  

Grinding up on strong ADV-DEC, UP-DOWN vol. showing clear strength.

Basic mats, oil, gold taking over.

/tf started high, had to consolidate before pushing to high close

Apr 24:

market climbed to fresh highs overnight.  /tf 930 touch.

DB up slightly.

Lots of earnings.  LL strong.  F strong.

/cl touched 90...     whew -- bull is back. 

/tf climbed 30 pts in 2 days.

Will trade on 1 min candles if we look rangebound.

8:30 durable order data.  
8 am:  /tf drips below yesterday high.

AAPL red.  Poor aapl.

data -- tips /tf down 925 --

mixed signals.

/zb red.
xlf flat
IBD names mixed.

CREE, AWAY -- weak.

Market breaks out -- 

AD 900 -- trend day

UD flowing higher --

nothing weird. ....

broke the TL and off it goes...

but I did poorly -- began making trades OFF plan -- was not following charts -- was following Market Signals and then attempted to short, short again, then revenge short -- giving up all profits for the day. 

AD climbs to 900 - trend up day.  Now -- how can I avoid this?  I must have another voice that overrides the impulsive trader that 'wants to be right'.  That guy is a terrible trader.

last time short 931.6 --  seeing divergence on /zb, TICK and AD -- triple div.?  Is this enough th overcome Trend Day stats?  (probably not)

AD 900+
UD - nhod

would expect top to be busted at the close or ah rip.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

April 23: trend day

I'm thinking it's best to just trade using 5 min candles when you see Trend Day (Adv-Dec +800) at the outset.

Just buy breakouts, set it and forget it.  You can buy TL breaks because you get such a big move - no reason to enter responsively.

When yesterday's high breaks before the open - and you're seeing  Europe up, financials leading, tech up... you take it.  Major new level has begun.  

Then I want to stay with 5 min candles to avoid noise - don't psych myself out and take the profit.  I want to systematically raise the stop.  Only when the TL breaks is that a clear exit signal. 

I did see a short pattern build midday that was good for 50 ticks. Wasn't around in the afternoon but once the TL broke back up -- it was time to get long again for the new high stophunt close.

These days -- which seem to be happening quite frequently, should ideally pay out big.  But holding for the move is the hard part. 

Monday, April 22, 2013

April 22: Full day /tf

Trading off Trend-Lines.

entry on 3rd touches of clear bases or resistance lines.

All these books and programs for sale:

You see all the stuff for sale?  How to... etc?

None of it is going to help the struggling trader because it's not about more information.  It's about the psychological mindset of "thinking in probabilities".

Trading in the Zone can help with that. 

Today I STILL managed to miss two great opportunities, despite knowing what I know, and despite papertrading -- because my mindset is still not correct. 

But the week is not over.

Monday April 22 - Great Chart

/tf -- easily could be done for the day  entering on triple touches.

sharp drop on 3rd touch, Fri lows, TL break - 50% retrace - DONE.

update:   /tf  kept going to 906.3 --   61.8% fib retrace....  incredible.

2nd update:  and guess what? full retrace to 910.  Just had to keep a trailing stop and would have gotten the whole thing 120t down, 120 up was possible.

Apr 22 notes:

See if I can apply some new perspective.

grind up overnight.

/tf  .54

/zb red.
/gc -- making a huge jump to nearly 50% retrace fib touch from the big dip.

but CAT weak - stops the party.

HAL 4%  - strong er.

/cl  .71

DB green.
BAC up.

CAT -- REVERSAL!  now green, leading the Dow.

/tf - TL break at 911.50 -- a quick 15tick move on that break -- standard pattern -- looking for retest to short.

/zb flips green

/tf - break -- missed op.  -- now 25 ticks down -- have to be willing to take the break.  This was an entry.

/zb flat.

IBD names look ok.   Range Day? 

/tf -- triple top and then it was  140 ticks of glory -- but I did not enter a clear and obvious pattern.

/tf -- entered too early -- didn't wait for clear based at  897 -- for 45 ticks now...  

problem: patience.

/tf -- could be done with a huge day


Sunday, April 21, 2013

Update - Trading In the Zone

There are a few great statements to share from this book but I am definitely recommending this as one of the most important books for struggling traders -- especially those trading futures.

 Every trader needs a good mentor when starting out.  If you don't have one (in person), at least start with this book.

Two key ideas (which will make more sense if you've read the book):

1. Anything can happen.

2. You don't need to know what's going to happen next to be a CP trader.

Book Review: Main Idea - Trading in the Zone

I am reading this book right now.

Now many trading books out there provide strategies and techniques. 

But this book does not discuss strategies, you won't even find charts.  It's purely about the psychology of trading and it's certainly an excellent read for struggling traders.

I think most people struggle and ultimately fail precisely because they never develop the correct psychology to handle the complete freedom of trading.  Trading is simply unlike any other job.  There are almost no hours -- especially if one trades futures.  You make your own.  You decide when to enter and exit. And you must be able to overcome your own fears and rein back your exuberance every day.

One key idea is that becoming more aware or more intelligent about the market will not help you.  Struggling traders sometimes think they just need to study more, learn more, they will get better.  But extreme intelligence is not required to be consistently profitable (CP).  Becoming a CP trader means being able to execute without hesitation.  CP traders trade without fear and therefore they can execute their trades and listen to the market effectively.  Struggling traders, are, in contrast, listening to their emotions half the time.  So they enter late, take profits early, let losers ride... etc. 

If you feel like you are dealing with a lot of fear, if you sometimes make money then give it back in one or two bonehead trades and then can't believe how you could have been so dumb -- then this is probably going to be worth the cost.  I've bought quite a few trading books and I would say 75% were not worth it.  This book may not actually seem like one of the good ones.  But as I said this is an important book for those struggling to be consistent and who feel they are constantly sabotaging their own efforts by acting out of fear or greed or seem to be frequently taking trades off plan.

As traders, we must constantly strive to improve our game.  And mastering your own psychology is pretty much THE game. 

Hope this helps.

Friday, April 19, 2013

April 19

huge rally day --

easy to simply buy TL breaks today.

Adv-Dec 1400+ is all trend...

/tf trend days- just pick a wegde b/o and you win

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Apri 16

/ym -- 50% retrace from highs to low -- Thurs high / Mon. low -- touched.

big gap up.

/gc rebound
bullish triangle breakout - was good for 50 ticks -- day should be over at 8:10am.

/zb -- sinking hard but might be turning....

Best move of day may be over.

JNJ, KO -- adding to /ym push.

8:30 data -- market likes it.

IBD names all green.

/gc - blowoff over 1400 -- and down 110ticks.

DB  3.7

sentiment on Twitter -- mostly bearish -- "downtrend intact"  -- willingness to get long has decreased greatly.   terrorism adding to sentiment?

Fast markets = stay with 1-min candles.  Can play breaks for 20t.

/ym - breaking another bull flag  /bo -- extended here.

AD 1549  strong

AD 1900 --  shorts on fire.

vix -18%

made over 80 ticks playing wedge breaks - using Context for clues - patient.   Great vision.  Best day in weeks.

TraderFibz room somehow worked magic.

AD 1800+

/tf climbs to high  +2.02%

Massive Trend Up Signals -- dip at morning was a major divergence -- provided huge moves.

80 ticks for /ym and /tf

3 losing trades in a row - -Afternoon not the same as morning....

UD - nhod
AD - turning up
/tf -- testing dTL

5 losing trades in a row --- afternoon absolutely terrible -- all downside chop.

10:45 - 11:50 -- was all you needed - best rip tf

/tf  decision wedge building.

finally got a runner.

trading in afternoon was stupid - -no edge

morning and after 3 pm - pays.

caught most of /tf - eod push - but should have HELD for the stophunt... stupid.  Afraid to hold winners.

Friday, April 12, 2013

Apr 12

AD -1000

tf  943 -- was the entry  ---

tf 940   balanced  despite -1000 AD

AD -1362

obvious now

tf 935

61.8 retrace is 934

midday -- will tighten up on Fri.  Can't play a break down/up -- have to enter responsively at descending triple tops or the stop is too wide.

We're in a small wedge inside a bigger pattern.  Bad R:R to trade these smaller patterns - can go either way.

/ym almost breakeven SPIKE.
/zb - nhod

/tf at VWAP.

Big decision wedge.

typical Friday - -entire day was over before noon.   This is a waste.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

apr 11

futures creeping up premarket

/zb  -- barely red.

8:30 -- big data coming out.

futures take out yesterday highs and back off.

/zb green
DB red.

This is not like yesterday....

Weakness coming into data.

DB - flips to green.

/tf  weaker than /ym -- another small sign of a weaker market that wants to p/b.

POP on data

xlf - strong -- starting to look stronger.

/zb  up .13    ---

strong day yesterday = chop today?   mixed bag

PC names very weak.
EWG  .64
IYT, xhb, RED.

/zb pushing

/tf red

DD, VZ, AA strong  -- watch bas. mats.

but /cl  down .26

IBD names  STRONG as hell.   ...
AD flat.

RANGE DAY - -  sell  tops, buy weakness.    No one in control.

AD 400

NNEED  to keep 1 min charts at open -- 5 min too blind.

AD 695 at 10:30 --  not really fadeable now.

AD 700 -- pushing....
AD 1000 +!

/ym 14800
/es 1590


can't stop the Fed.

finally  TL break... rest pause.

AD 1100+ at the top.

Easy money in the morning trade is over -- like it is every day.  Afternoon will be shit.

fade afternoon

/zb green all day  -- over by 11:30 for /tf.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Apr 10.

grinding up over night.

/ym touches HIGHS.

/es touches highs.

/zb now bounce up a little.

based on strong financials premarket -- instant open at AD 1000
it was right to take breakout of /es at 1569 -- and look for trend day.  

Early signals pointed to massive strength.  Then trailing stop would keep you in for 10.

Or else /tf -- and done by noon time.  Afternoon chop as expected.


Too early for major move down -- hasn't been hours of distribution (only more accumulation).

AIG, EBAY   strong
DB  2%
AAPL strong

fomc NOTES  -- 2 PM ...  CHATTER.

IBM strong - may keep /ym elevated.

/ym pushing -- can't fight IBM. 

slight p/b

financials SOLID, aig, db, gs, bac --

zb - nlod

grind it UP UP UP.

DB regains 200 day --  euro ETFS  strong -- looking at nearly 1% move.

AD 1300


Running hot.

AD 1300+
euro strong

gotta be stupid or dumb to be short a bubble.

AD 1529  !!!!!!!!!!     BUBBBLE !!

/zb  still sinking

can't short early -- pointless.

AD 1620 -- just a bubble day -- some people try to fade it -- but they are not listening.

euro etfs up  2.4%
IWM up 1.7%

again -- your goal is to HOLD all winners acting well.  Taking early profits is what destroys CP.

1:15:   ad  off 1600 highs...
/zb slight bounce -- 

not worth shorting -- merely resting.  Too strong to drop.   Shorts in a big hole will support each tick drop.

AD 1645 --  shorts in trouble...    again.

943 tf

/zb near lows

/tf 1.84%

i'd say we could see 2%

1.87% grind.

/tf  2.04%  at 3:53

945 -- no surprise.

Friday, April 5, 2013

APr 5

BIG GAP DOWN on futures

dow -161

AD -1900

payroll data -- killer.

IBD names red
vix 9.45%
/zb 1%

amateur move is to get long for a bounce.

This needs time to create a base.

Daily Charts broken

IWM below 50 day MA.

AD bottomed out at 9:38 -- rising --   first bullish divergence.

Can't see anyting on 5 min -- consolidation/distribution still here.

vix 9.5
/zb 1.11%
AD -1771

AD rising slightly -- divergence :  10:19

10:20 --  BUY SIGNAL   - rising ad , drop in /zb

yes -- /tf -- was 35 tick move

/ym -- from the low from weeks ago -- 40 tick bounce -- responsive entry would have worked.

AD -1520  rising...

10:41 --  BOUNCE OVER --   AD SIGNAL

/ym -  PATTERN:  wedging consolidation formation.

AD  over -1500 rising
/ym - top of wedge.

that was 20t.

/tf  to 915.5 !! -- filled gap down premarket --

AD rising called it -- now a PUKE candle = exit -- and done for day.

Leadership still 98% red -- can't hold up here.

AD -1033  -- rising into Major 15m dTL

$TICK higher lows intraday.

rising AD -999

short /tf   15t stop --  /zb  - breaks triple top , AD starting to decline?

midday -- the best move of the day is over -- this is chop now.

AD -969 nhod -- stronger....

/tf - needed to form a larger pattern.

You get stuck trading too small patterns.

ad -912  nhod

/tf 917 -- wedge break

AD -820  nhod

/tf  917.7 nhod

12:55 -- SELL SIGNAL

vix -5.3%
AD -860
/zb 1.17%
6 green IBD names.

opex Fri...  grinding into weekend?

AD -620
/tf 918.4

/ym 14450

VERY SLOW -- no movement here -- opex Fri.  typical -- the opportunities were -- ONCE AGAIN,

in the morning.

AD -588 nhod -- this is the key Market Signal to keep you out of a short today.

still no Puke candle at the top -- so grinding on.

/zb - pulling back
AD -550s

end of day chop and crap

/ym -- almost touched yesterday lows -- was the hod.

/ym and /gc -- both 61.8 fib retrace again from high to low -- one day.

After big drops-- always see the fib retrace level -- that's what you want to look for.

/es , /ym --  ONE HOUR TL touch --  big picture.

Trend Up Day  to ONE HOUR TL --

Rising AD
/zb -- TL break -- dropping at 2:20 --    so double signals to keep rising.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

april 4

/ym -  overnight rally  - was once again a perfect 61.8% fib retrace from highs to lows of yesterday. 

/zb turns up and

/ym -- fading now from the fib touch.

/tf fading under 920

data at 8:30 -- front running disaster?

financials green though.

Where has the market been?     to the skies
Where does it want to go?         wants to take out the dip buyers?

/cl - fake b/o -- dips below o/n low -- this market always hunts stops aggressively.

/es  1550 --
/ym 14500

/zb -- pushing to resist.
/6e - new lows broke

ym - bounce 14500
/es 1550 --

market wants to stay at value here

AD  700s

stay long... 
strong market

AD 820

shorts fighting a tough fight so far.

IBD list green
/zb p/b
vix -2.25%

easy to see a cover rally.

reenter /ym short on TL -- 12t stop -- going with the TL.

internals weakening.

/ym -- o/n high stophunt -- dropped 55t

expect choppyday based on mixed market signals.

YES -- great call -- RANGEBOUND day.

AD 639
/zb  .41%  ???


pennant resolves to downside in afternoon --

AD  160 -- declining.

Daily chart in downtrend -- tops get sold now?

AD 50
/zb  .65%
vix 3%

new lows possible

/tf -- in a large daily pennant --

AD flat --

today is a poor risk reward game.

/tf  breaks to upside now -- pennant broke

AD 400 -- up at highs -- short it?   seems like a trap.  Feels like a trap.

But technically - a good trade.

$TICK - -higher lows all day...  still say bear trap setting up for squeeze.

Monday, April 1, 2013

April 1

So wonderfully patient with losers... giving them room.  Watching them bleed.

And I can't wait to get rid of winners for pennies.

So angry -- and tired of making the same mistakes.

I don't want to do this anymore.

AAPL -- swing trades follow a set of rules.  Should have been sell on close below 20 day MA -- no exceptions.