/tf - climbs to Tues. highs... forms triple top.
/cl over 99 -- massive uptrend.
more good news for BA.
ATRO raging on daily - aerospace.
When I see ppl predicting prices - I stop following -- waste of time.
When I see ppl acting like doctors, diagnosing strength and sickness of the market via critical signals -- I am very interested. This is what we are: doctors of finance. We observe the patient and make our recommendations based on observation and then test to see whether the medicine is correct.
premarket chop near highs from yesterday...
/tf fills gap - touches ystdy close - bounce hard.
/ym now trading below ysty close.
/nq - strongest market.
/tf - FLAT to the tick... gonna be a snooze day until 2 pm.
/es - broke yesterday highs by 1 tick this morning before going it all back... red now.
FDX beat.
/ym - that was some wild sloppy o/n moves.
VVUS???? in play for sure.
futures at ystdy close levels -- very flat... waiting on Fed.
VVUS in play.
nq/ym green
/tf 991.50 -- support hit - broke -- bottom?
internals getting worse.. stay out.
chart later.
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
June 18: pre Fed day.
Once again - ramp overnight to yesterday highs -- and beyond.
/tf pushing to 990
and just takes out ystdy highs at 5:50 - backs down 30 ticks.
Have to be willing to responsively enter double tops/bottoms in this market -- b/os are failing -- reversing quickly.
Algos willing to let things run but not the usual entry.
/zb - new lows.... rates rising. Direct correlation now = usually bearish.
IWM leading -- risk on.
weak /zb does not matter so far.
anticipate range day? Look for the edges. 5:50 am already the top.
adv-deck 575
IBD leaders strong
nq, es ym stronger than /tf --
Fed tomorrow.
advrl 1240 --
low volume ramp. Have to be willing to go with it.
advrl - trending down at 3:05 -- rainbow?
Two possible entries -- the responsive entry for the whole enchilada and the safe one.
Super low volume today.
Strong internals. Don't be a hero. When the herd buys, just say moo and buy.
/tf pushing to 990
and just takes out ystdy highs at 5:50 - backs down 30 ticks.
Have to be willing to responsively enter double tops/bottoms in this market -- b/os are failing -- reversing quickly.
Algos willing to let things run but not the usual entry.
/zb - new lows.... rates rising. Direct correlation now = usually bearish.
IWM leading -- risk on.
weak /zb does not matter so far.
anticipate range day? Look for the edges. 5:50 am already the top.
adv-deck 575
IBD leaders strong
nq, es ym stronger than /tf --
Fed tomorrow.
advrl 1240 --
low volume ramp. Have to be willing to go with it.
advrl - trending down at 3:05 -- rainbow?
Two possible entries -- the responsive entry for the whole enchilada and the safe one.
Super low volume today.
Strong internals. Don't be a hero. When the herd buys, just say moo and buy.
Monday, June 17, 2013
3 main futures trades:
1. Triple touch on a 2 - 5 day chart -- enter responsively on major TL touch for a big swing.
2. Wedge b/o -- going with the herd after decision wedge builds up. Works when Market Signals are trending in direction of b/o.
3. Double bottoms -- these can occur out of nowhere. Also responsive entry -- works if you are going WITH Market Signals -- but obviously - you are taking location and hoping it sticks so almost a countertrade entry.
If the entries are correct, the stop outs will be for 10ticks max and usually lowered to b/e half the time.
adv-dec dripping all day after gap up open.
fake b/os and b/d today -- just a whipsaw midday -- market gaming the gamers.
ADVrl-DECrl -- dropping all day -- so no surprise it double bottoms and keeps going. Direction matters more than value.
We only make money guessing direction correctly. If we start high and drop lower - it's down.
2. Wedge b/o -- going with the herd after decision wedge builds up. Works when Market Signals are trending in direction of b/o.
3. Double bottoms -- these can occur out of nowhere. Also responsive entry -- works if you are going WITH Market Signals -- but obviously - you are taking location and hoping it sticks so almost a countertrade entry.
If the entries are correct, the stop outs will be for 10ticks max and usually lowered to b/e half the time.
adv-dec dripping all day after gap up open.
fake b/os and b/d today -- just a whipsaw midday -- market gaming the gamers.
ADVrl-DECrl -- dropping all day -- so no surprise it double bottoms and keeps going. Direction matters more than value.
We only make money guessing direction correctly. If we start high and drop lower - it's down.
 |
| /tf: inside out day, near gap fill, sharp bounce to TL |
June 17: Monday
/tf gap up 1.1% to 987.2
up: NFLX, AIG, BAC, TSLA, SCTY, GOOG, AMZN, SODA, GMCR
watch financials... -- very strong.
all indices above 50 day MA -- don't overthink the uptrend. It's an uptrend.
Focus on /tf -- the sup/res. levels.
The Market Signals.
8:52: 5 min TL test /tf -- holding on.
$5 bil POMO today -- helping??
/tf 1% gap up.
gap fill: 977ish.
Your system must allow a way for winners to stay on and run.
/tf - small decision wedge builds now.
after a wedge break -- the stop must be at least the break or backtest -- not the TL down.
flatish day...
up: NFLX, AIG, BAC, TSLA, SCTY, GOOG, AMZN, SODA, GMCR
watch financials... -- very strong.
all indices above 50 day MA -- don't overthink the uptrend. It's an uptrend.
Focus on /tf -- the sup/res. levels.
The Market Signals.
8:52: 5 min TL test /tf -- holding on.
$5 bil POMO today -- helping??
/tf 1% gap up.
gap fill: 977ish.
Your system must allow a way for winners to stay on and run.
/tf - small decision wedge builds now.
after a wedge break -- the stop must be at least the break or backtest -- not the TL down.
flatish day...
Saturday, June 15, 2013
Things that Make You Not CP
1. Focusing on too many markets.
Why? Easy to get distracted, bored.
2. Taking non-plan trades.
Why? Getting impatient. Getting impulsive.
3. Taking profits too early.
Why? Impatient. Fear of giving back.
Impatience. Fear.
Is there really anything more? Either we're bored... and make mistakes: overtrade, take excessive risk, oversize...
or we don't take trades/exit early: becoming far too risk-adverse when it finally is time not to do so.
This is the self-mastery part of the game. You push through feelings of boredom by going over the plan... researching... but you cannot deviate from a set plan/pattern.
You must also stop yourself from ending trades too early, limiting every big winner into a tiny winner.
When you conquer impatience and fear... everything will fall into place. But it starts with becoming highly self-aware during the trading day and not merely afterward. You are not the same person trading as at night. So develop a monitor for yourself along with market signals.
Why? Easy to get distracted, bored.
2. Taking non-plan trades.
Why? Getting impatient. Getting impulsive.
3. Taking profits too early.
Why? Impatient. Fear of giving back.
Impatience. Fear.
Is there really anything more? Either we're bored... and make mistakes: overtrade, take excessive risk, oversize...
or we don't take trades/exit early: becoming far too risk-adverse when it finally is time not to do so.
This is the self-mastery part of the game. You push through feelings of boredom by going over the plan... researching... but you cannot deviate from a set plan/pattern.
You must also stop yourself from ending trades too early, limiting every big winner into a tiny winner.
When you conquer impatience and fear... everything will fall into place. But it starts with becoming highly self-aware during the trading day and not merely afterward. You are not the same person trading as at night. So develop a monitor for yourself along with market signals.
Friday, June 14, 2013
June 14: Fri
Possibilities are:
Enter at good location -- on a TL sup/resistance -- if the internals look like they'll hold the line.
Wait for a breakout of a pattern of an hour or more duration. Again, internals need to be moving in direction of b/o.
Today, /tf established clear TL at 10 am -- so very long TL to work with on mixed internals.
The next set up was hours later... a decision wedge builds and the declining internals tell you to look for a break down which occurs.
The target was the 50% fib of the entire 2 day move -- in fact, /tf pushed past this level.
If you didn't take the target then you are holding with a stop at the 5 min TL which takes you out around 976.4 which was -- coincidentally enough the 50% fib retrace area pretty much to the tick anyway.
Advrl-declrl at entry was over -1000
Enter at good location -- on a TL sup/resistance -- if the internals look like they'll hold the line.
Wait for a breakout of a pattern of an hour or more duration. Again, internals need to be moving in direction of b/o.
Today, /tf established clear TL at 10 am -- so very long TL to work with on mixed internals.
The next set up was hours later... a decision wedge builds and the declining internals tell you to look for a break down which occurs.
The target was the 50% fib of the entire 2 day move -- in fact, /tf pushed past this level.
If you didn't take the target then you are holding with a stop at the 5 min TL which takes you out around 976.4 which was -- coincidentally enough the 50% fib retrace area pretty much to the tick anyway.
Advrl-declrl at entry was over -1000
 |
| /tf: will set up every day, are you patient enough to wait for it? |
Thursday, June 13, 2013
June 13
/tf hits support overnight -- same level as 5 days ago - TO THE TICK
reverses overnight -- back up/THROUGH yesterday close - gap fill and beyond to green now.
testing Tuesday LOW again which should be a very powerful resistance area.
shorted 972.4 -- 13t stop -- at major resistance -- blowing thru... wow
and stopped. Paper trading failure.
rule #1: Can't trade premarket -- it can run too far on low vol. Character is different.
972.6 now briefly acting as SUPPORT -- premarket - anything can happen.
need a structure to work with...
two types of days: Range, Trend.
ad 400+
slx, iyr, iyt, jnk, xlf, rth green -- bounce day...
ad 1070 Squeeze -- going vertical. Everyone leaned too far.
internals getting stronger - no reason to think fade.
Rules: need 1 hour pattern minimum to begin a trend worth entering. Thus -- can't fade first breaks.
and 984.2 -- HOURLY TL HIT.
through 990
why? internals were insanely bullish and increasing.
xlf, jnk, xhb green at the start -- signalling underlying strength.
Clear trendline had developed over several hours premarket -- establishing clear buyers back in control.
No reason to second guess the market -- all trades are simply flo riders... until a stop. You don't know and today -- it was simply all up... just like yesterday was all trend down.... Pays to stay with trend.
reverses overnight -- back up/THROUGH yesterday close - gap fill and beyond to green now.
testing Tuesday LOW again which should be a very powerful resistance area.
shorted 972.4 -- 13t stop -- at major resistance -- blowing thru... wow
and stopped. Paper trading failure.
rule #1: Can't trade premarket -- it can run too far on low vol. Character is different.
972.6 now briefly acting as SUPPORT -- premarket - anything can happen.
need a structure to work with...
two types of days: Range, Trend.
ad 400+
slx, iyr, iyt, jnk, xlf, rth green -- bounce day...
ad 1070 Squeeze -- going vertical. Everyone leaned too far.
internals getting stronger - no reason to think fade.
Rules: need 1 hour pattern minimum to begin a trend worth entering. Thus -- can't fade first breaks.
and 984.2 -- HOURLY TL HIT.
through 990
why? internals were insanely bullish and increasing.
xlf, jnk, xhb green at the start -- signalling underlying strength.
Clear trendline had developed over several hours premarket -- establishing clear buyers back in control.
No reason to second guess the market -- all trades are simply flo riders... until a stop. You don't know and today -- it was simply all up... just like yesterday was all trend down.... Pays to stay with trend.
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