Sunday, September 1, 2013

Trend Down

Weak open in 'correction' sets up a short opp.  Using the 5 min OR break - but still want to wait for synchronicity to show us the best entry.

  TL forms quickly and the short runs for over 100 ticks after entry.

/tf trend down on -800 ADr open: simple

Low breaches the recent low of 1008 that was hit around 10 days earlier - -breaks through by 1 point... and a sharp 'little 40tick rally' in the final few minutes.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Trend Day

Set up was premarket and entry at open

Already had a TL break + backtest with huge ADr  reading at open to confirm - get long -- and the fast break means - stay with it.

/tf: trend day with 5/34 xover premarket, strong ADr

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Moving On.

I will soon be rejoining the world and ending my fulltime daytrading life.

I must say I'm looking forward to it.  The sole pursuit of money/profits has been slowing digging a hole in my soul.  But I will have summers off to work on the game full-time. 

Good luck to you and your trading.  If I've helped one person in some way, it was worth my time writing my thoughts.

Fear of Being Wrong.

This can be a devastating problem.

If you fear being wrong, you will almost certainly do two things.

1) take profits too early all the time
2) hold losers too long to avoid admitting losses.
3) not take a clear pattern entry because it might lose

This is a psychological issue.  You are afraid deep down of being wrong.  Because in your mindset, every loser is an admission of failure.  But we know that failing regularly is part of trading. 

Traders make money over time.  The win percentage may vary but no matter how a person trades, each individual trade is mostly meaningless unless we give it power. 

Fear of being wrong means every trade is viewed as another final exam of whether we are smarter than the market.

Being smart is not an asset, it's a liability. 

The best trader sticks to a process and takes the small losses. 

But how does one overcome obsession fear of failure?

The first step:

1) Reduce size to reduce fear.

You have to do your trading plan without any fear so do it with smaller size.  You need to win and boost your confidence but more importantly, develop the identity of a CP trader.  If you don't think you can succeed, you won't.  So start with a small win.

2) Review each trade.  Look back and see where you started feeling anxious. Then, when you are actually making a trade, you can identify the moment of anxiety and take a new action.  Stand up from your chair, talk to yourself out loud about how you feel.  Remind yourself that the anxiety is just an emotion that you can control.   You cannot change a habit until you can identify it when it is happening and break the routine with a new action.

3) Breathe.  I wouldn't be surprised if many traders exhibit a lot of physical tension during these moments.  Physically relaxing your body will help you mind shift.  You don't need to eliminate the anxiety, you just need to change your behavior and not fall back on old patterns (taking profits too quick, not taking losses). 

This is just a brief beginning.  But first, you have to be honest with what's holding you back.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Habits. Aug 19


Good trading comes down to good habits.   Planning, careful execution, study, careful review/analysis.

Some traders probably prefer some of the job over other parts.  And obviously, some traders are just jazzed by the thrill of gambling, not the daunting grunt work of the process.

One has to be honest with oneself regarding the work and one's habits.  Just showing up isn't enough to achieve CP.

And on top of all that is the self-control to execute religiously.  Trading requires us to perform at the top of our abilities every single day.  Most jobs do not require 100% concentration, 100% of the time.  Hardly.  Most jobs don't even require us to actively use our brains all day.

Wanting to succeed is not the same as willingness to work hard to succeed.

If this sound familiar, it's time to commit to small changes to improve habits, and performance will follow.  But it takes time and commitment and not everyone want to make the sacrifice.


aug 19.

/tf  -.21%  to 1019.

strong: fb, tsla, ddd.   AAPL

weak:  grpn, trla, z  ocn, /cl

$namo -60...  amzn down 5 days in a row... light vol. in Aug.

/tf - flips green 8:50 am

oversold here... may be low vol squeeze to start.

/tf flat.

wedge  now  10:22

/nq  .93   despite ADn -900+


Remember: Your rules don't protect you from the market, they protect you from yourself.

short  /nq  triple touch,   ADn -1000+,   negative vol.     vix green,    xhb, xlf, iyt red.

/tf -- and I saw it real time -- synched into a dTL -- and dropped to a triple bottom...

ADr -300 and dropping.
ADn -1400

ADn  -1500   severe -- big shift -- market would have bounced long before this weeks ago -- sentiment has broken on Taper.

/nq  dTL broken -- could squeeze...?

AD -1600 --    no reason to fear being 'part of the herd' -- it's only at the ends is it dangerous... in the middle of the herd, the worst thing to do is face the opposite direction.

IWM -  just touches 50 day MA today...

meanwhile... xhb   below 200 day MA.
xlf below 50.

Difficult to hold a winner.  Why?  Threat of giving back a small profit overwhelms the process of staying in a trade that is working.

Today - correct play was worth around 70 ticks.


/tf 1012.3...110 ticks high to low intraday....

All you had to do was wait for TL to be clear... and then everyone saw it.

What is difficult about holding a winner?  Is it not trusting yourself?  The process?  Where does you mind break with what you know is the plan?  How can you break the wrong habit?

Friday, August 16, 2013

Aug 16 Fri.

Triple bottom   8:15

strong premarket:

green: FB, tsla, gmcr, ddd, aig, z cree, afcp, pcln, amzn qihu litb lnkd blox xin arii appl avg

IBD - market in correction. ..  thanksfor the tip.  -225 dow day wasn't obvious.

ADr   -- can't get positive...   breaks over 25 min OR and fails...  

bear market  = need proof to take longs.

market in correction:

Fri opex -- taking  responsive fades --   double top short 1028.5    8t stop.

ADr  219 --  pushing.

3rd touch establishes a line - if Market Signals are improving in same direction -- that's the entry.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Aug 15>

-1% o/n - /tf  to 1035 -- below last major support level on hourly chart.

Major break in sentiment occurring.  Still no bottom.

fb, tsla, aig, cree, grpn, down.

/tf worst index. 

/es also at 1672 -- bottom of hourly support  --  

NTES strong on er beat.

/tf looks like  huge head/shoulder pattern completed -- no either bounce back or start of major correction.

1035 bounce?