Thursday, January 31, 2013

Thurs 31

/cl - short  97.58  on  b/d of flag.  15t stop.  

This is a classic pattern.  I think I would take this trade every time.  At least 50t R

/tf - 891 - testing O/N lows...

holding /cl short -- following rules.   Means .... doing nothing.

/cl - retests the b/d level -- now  TL break down -- this SHOULD be a swing move.

/cl - stopped out -- let 20ticks profit slip to a loss... egregious. 

-- key here was to watch /tf -- really turned up too -- so pocket of buyers pushed

reshort /cl --  think once again - the stop level was just too tight.   8ticks -- there's a reason for this.

got /cl covered on a steep dive.   +29t including the first 5t stop out.

/tf - bounces to green  893.5

UA -  up 5% 

/cl - problem is - there was no reason to cover.  Now 97.02 hit 96.96 -- that's 23 ticks and still trending lower.  

Almost always want to hold for stophunt under whole numbers....

/cl - and now bouncing back up --

shorted /t f--  on divergence Signals -- caught a nice one -- stop in the money.

/tf - stopped  +10t

short   tf   896.1 --  Bearish Signal ---  15t stop --  TL stop -- so early entry.   no 5/34 xover.

/tf -- triple top  pennant -- here's the pattern.

DECK - ystdy high -- touch.

WEDGE - /tf
may be  b/o...

IWM   HoD was ystdy low -- obvious.

Twitter -- down.  lol.

AD  80
TICK flat

898.5  tf

kind of bullish -- barely.  

TEVA - call buyers    ER  2/7
DECK  call buyers

short /tf --

internals break

covered  /tf  for 14t -- but should have held -- once again - emotions overrode the rules.  WHY???

45 ticks total  between /cl and /tf

Euro close in 7 min.   

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

the big breaks:

/gc  broke its downtrend 2 days ago.

Now today -- big spike on GDP data -- market was once again 2 days early -- all you had to do was follow the charts... it's that simple.

You get stopped out along the way but the winners -- like the /gc move this morning will more than pay for the jiggles which is a part of doing business.

/es  stophunts below 1500

/gc break occurs 2 days before major pop to fib level

Gold chart worth studying.

The lesson is: Watch for the breaks, because a lot of times, that's the big signal.  Holding through the drop is pointless.  Once you see the break after an oversold market - it's easy money with no heat.

Balanced open...

905  /tf   

IYT, XLF red.     tech strong... aapl, amzn, gmcr, cree, gold

/tf - ystdy low -- TO THE TICK

covered +28t.  (should have held out for 900 breach)...

long 900.9 --  internals diverge.   bounce?   9t stop.

stupid long - -need a double bottom pattern to attempt a real countertrade.

long /tf  triple bottom -- DIVERGENCE in the signals. 898.9 entry
 flat  for 11 ticks....

30 ticks total.  One mistake.  should be 40.

DECK --  broke TL with vol.  heading up?

and -- /tf - climbs to just below ystdy low -- and drops back down... chop until Fed 2:15 likely - -good time to take a break.

11:30  europe close -- brings a 30tick ramp.

small double bottom right before 5/34 xover -- same old pattern

11:40 --  signals  TURN bearish    short  in 902

IWM -- over 10 day MA -- remember -- still a bull market.

flat.    31 ticks total.

FOMC meeting time.

UD -- weak
AD -500
TICK flat
vix  3.8%

/tf  900 -- hovering under ysterdy's lows...  bearish.

If I were a betting man I'd say big swings take out stops both directions then flat...   lot of noise.

14:11  --  BULL SIGNAL push?  coming?   - no action into Fed.

/tf    double bottom low - - 
AD - does not make new low
TICK bullish diverge....  gotta cover

if unsure -- default to prevailing  signals --  Bears in control -- they win 'standstill' flattish markets -- like now...  market keeps keeling over.

All Signals register new lows...

/tf  breaks 898 --   need to follow Signals when flat.

/tf  sandbagged on strong selling...  896 --   5/34  MAs kept you ok

Signals - new lows...

only triple or double bottoms allow entry  against  5/34 mas.  AND with a Signal Divergence.

2:57:  minor bullish divergence
    /tf -- still under      - not enough to warrant a long.

15;06   Signal Bull Push --
/tf  does not budge though

/tf - new lows..

AD, UD confirms

AD  -950

/tf 895 -- must stay short.

894 - would be target - completes a rainbow

15 min candles /tf --  TL break - retest to 903 - and then down...

IWM - almost 5 day rainbow complete.

894 --  on AD -1000     trend down...   this was technically a gimme of a day.

try  long at 3:30 - on bounce at major support for 15 ticks...

Signals small bullish.

-- need a small double/trip bottom first?  YES.  That's the fucking rule, right?   lol.

Papertrading retard.

The first rule of trading is follow your rules.
The second rule of trading is follow your rules.
The third rule of trading is don't forget rules 1 and 2.

QQQ - first day close below 20 day MA in 2013.

Need to attack the market with your attitude and your plan... not worry about maybes... The plan gets you in and out and it incorporates small losses.  Just trade the plan.  Less psychic stress.

Internals  getting WORSE

/tf  892

Bulls in shock.   Trend on DAILY CHART threatened.

QQQs -- bear market
IWM -- weak  --  88.11 musthold.

strong TICK divergence

/tf - touches  TL   893.5

Internals DO NOT confirm up move.

/tf - 2 main entries and one small long were the way to play it.

/tf: two breaks for big swings

See the 5 min/5day chart too.  /tf  was bouncing on a rising TL -- today it broke in the morning and that first pennant was the last gasp -- after that -- one could have been anticipating a major shift since the last 5 days of bounce on the rising TL no longer worked.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

title change

Not that anyone's reading my public notes, but there's like a dozen "hindsite trading" sites as I realized so it's pretty lame to be so unoriginal.

 With this new name, it'll be a lot easier for no one to find me on Google.


More grind upward.

I was watching internals today and realized it was mostly strong...

/tf 904 was the opening print and it crossed several times.

The real opportunity was at 3 pm when the inevitable push to try to take out yesterday's high took place and succeeded by 2 ticks.

/ES was much stronger all day -- clearly there's money rotating into this area.

Basic materials, refineries (on fire), and financials are so strong.  This is where the money is flowing.

Big caps like JNJ, PG, MCD are practically vertical, along with AMZN   ah.  Never seen BIG so much the rage.  MMM too -- it's huge.

/tf chop until 3 pm algos take out highs. 
I bought some CLH on breakout - closed near highs.

But really - this is going to keep grinding until it breaks.  Can't stop the ragefest.  Follow the charts.  Everything else is noise.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Mon 1/28

goal:  find a winner -- and let it run or stop out without interfering.  But mainly - allow it to stay on.

/es touches 1500

/gc down

/cl  up .7%  -- breakout of pennant on 15 min. chart.

remember to check higher TF for major TLs...

/tf grinding higher -- way above   15 min. TL

AD   near zero.   slow here.


CSTR, DWA, GTLS strong.

aapl  strong bounce.

AD  -320          /tf  902 -- 5 min sup TL.

NVDA --  call buyers -- holding up  above  10/20 ma  daily.   bot.

ad  -600

AAPL +2%  bounce.

ad  -780

bad data --    /tf  hits TL  5 min ch.  and b/d

ad  -900   crash....

/gc -- b/o  !!!!

-1100  AD  --  way too strong...      careful up here.

FSLR touches 50 day MA --   this is major support.

GSVC -- back over 10/20 --      fb/znga strong. 

GG  shrugs off weakness -- gets green...

AD  -990 --    looking for divergence intraday or grind down.

$Vix--  big jump, reclaims 10 day MA -- upswing? 

11:30 euro close -- often a move -- rally here-  /tf back to 903.5

AD  -542 -- still climbing back - no divergence -

AD  -500
/tf  904+    no divergence

cstr, gtls - continue     strength  over 20 day MA daily...   and DWA.

Remember - when daily chart is bearish -- bulls must PROVE it.  Burden of proof for a new swing up.

5/34 xover is still valid --   corresponds with 5 min TL breaks...

/tf -- hits new highs -- double top

AD  - 400  -- seems divergent to be at highs and green.

-400 AD and $vix 5%  and  /tf is up .24% to new highs...     What does it do up an actual strong day????

AD  -500    /tf  stil 905   wow --  BURDEN OF PROOF.

Chart did not signal a sell.

-500 ad  and /tf  dips for a sec under 905. 

AAPL 2.7%
but momo   ddd, rimm, amzn, pcln, nflx red.  

sold INVN   15.20  (half)  -- looking to rebuy maybe .50 lower.

TEVA -- reversing off low -- will wait until above 20 day --  Follow the Rules.   That's the hard part.

AD  -600 - and /tf curls over ---  903....

Well.  My edge comes from Discipline.  NO discipline means, no results -- in anything.  So if you need to remember anything.  Discipline first.  Everything else is worthless if discipline fails.

2:37 Context

TICK weak,   AD  -300  as /tf  double tops

short  906.4 --  weak TICK,  AD -300 ,  uvol-dvol  weak.  

-3 ticks -- cleared up -- immediately covered.

tick -500

znga, rsh, shld, gluu --   these winners are saying something...        trash.

TICK picks up -- -possible ramp

/tf in a zipper.

/tf b/d  but  AD improves -- can it drop more?

Was reading about a pro trader who discusses CONTEXT.  Having a contextual understanding of the markets beats all the little indicators and doo-dads.  Must understand context, as a chess pro understand a board -- to have any chance of winning.  Focusing on a pattern is pointless if you don't know the context.  

In a powerful, grinding uptrend... /tf moving up despite weak internals...  and strong $vix -- must really pick spots -- triple tops at new highs -- dips are covered.

/tf  close 905.5 

YHOO, STX beat.

/tf: another dip and entry on TL break

Friday, January 25, 2013

Fri. opex day

AD +600  declining  from gap up...

DECK -- call buyers aggressive again.   daily chart swing long.

chop mode. 

AD  -60

/tf  898

some strength.

DECK --    immune to selling.   Buyers control it.

GLNG  strong.

FSLR  strong

AAPL -  broke again.

/gc  broke back.   2 for 1 sale.

/cl  breaking down as well now too.

still holding INVN because it's acting great -  huge vol.  institutions buying shares from retail profit taking.   Why let this go?

AD  350
/tf 903.2    IWM --  new highs almost... pushing...

nflx, pcln, sbux expe, gmcr, ebay, amzn, DECK

aapl -  yes it's cheap - but all teh buyers are short term buyers -- so they keep selling.  A base forms only because big, long term holders are buying -- so no reason to buy if trading today.

happy about buying DECK in the morning and some CSTR -- but did not hold CSTR. 

got long AAPL on classic  mini triple bump intraday  -- bottoming out ppatern.

99 MA holding
AD 330 --

no reason to short --   will just chop.

held AAPL for half hour - enough to buy an iPad.

sold aapl for +5  and it reversed about 30 secs. after....  lol.

cuz you know what makes sense

$16 trillion in debt

but we're selling off gold ....  lol.

Always check your higher timeframe charts -- you may catch an easy play. 

Thursday, January 24, 2013


aapl -9.3
nflx +37%

as the world turns.

most indices still above 10 day MA daily.

IYT - essentially up 16 days in a row. 

/es  triple top  on 5 day  5 min.

/tf  - also sloppy triple top.    Weak market signals mostly.

ad +1256  
tf  903  at euro close -- tops out

ad 790 now....   tf 901

WPRT - continues
DECK continues
DWA continues - into 200 day MA test - overbot.

CLF - fails / out.

INVN +9%   big winner.

/gc -- 100% retrace to zero fib -- stophunt - -now basing.

AD - divergence as  /tf hit new highs -- was actionable.  

Had to leave at noon.  

Wednesday, January 23, 2013


Your lesson for the year.

read it.

Wed. 23

No more anticipating.

Swings: over the 10 day MA first... then allow room for 20 day to hold - raise stops.  Some will work, some won't.  The winners, if you hold them, will pay for the losers.

Stocks of interest:

FSLR - daily chart.

/cl  coast to coast -- range-chopper - went thru  O/N high then low...   classic.

AD -220

profit taking

despite GOOG, IBM strength
AAPL strong
FB, NSC strong.

AD -400  confirm - hold the short  /tf  lower stop.

sold some DWA  17.26 -- target hit. 

TGH -  new 52-week high -- rainbow.

and IWM  back to green.  bam.

tried long/cl- broke TL --nowshort....

and it stopped me out --  amateur minute...

Once you commit to following the charts and your stops -- your fear and tension will go way down.

5 min charts: for big moves.

/cl -- broke pattern and dropped 130 ticks almost precisely to 50% fib retrace on 5 day / 5 min chart.  Here's what it looked right right before the waterfall began.  Tight consolidating triangle and then a b/o to the downside.

/cl: triangle consolidation then plunge after b/o

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Tues 22 notes:

/tf  slips to red.

pop to 895 o/n  now 889.5
/cl  -- mini triple top here -- short?

DDD, TSLA, FB, AAPL green.

RIMM, DELL strong.

XHB UNG  IYT strong    -- seems solid despite  /es  /tf red.

/cl - short 96  with 7t stop -- on TL formation  (quad bump)  -- huge R:R   (6:1)
     lower stop:  now 3t risk.

gold miners strong --- FCX reported +1.5%

stopped: /cl  -- was this a good trade?  lost 4 ticks.    b/o to upside.

/gc also popped.     premarket trading - thin vol.   easy to get chopped.

chop mode = looking for high tails -- responsive entries.

/tf  stuck at 890.

/cl   96.32 -- stophunt above o/n highs --  top of range here.

need to allow the charts dictate action, not opinions.

/cl strong.

VIX   6.5%  and market rising....  hmmm....

/tf red   /es green 

/tf -- new lows --  vix was right....    my short attempts were too tight.

AD  -130
vix  6.9%

bears in control.

/tf double bottom - and whipsaws back up.

responsive short  /tf  --  double bounce, weak AD and high VIX.   5t stop.

completely wrong all day -- in /tf   -23ticks. 

/tf -- and new highs - stophunt

/tf  894 -- 
AD +500

DON'T  anticipate the signal.  The signal is the signal.

anticipating a signal is a trap.

we're in a bubble -- there's no way to anticipate a top.  The chart is the guide.

AD +690  
/tf -- trend is up - no reason to anticipate a short.  

/cl --   5/34 xover  finally  -- 50 tick move if you played it straight.

895 /tf --   stophunt O/N high

/tf  895.5  - new highs...     +700 AD  keeps you long.

AD  800;   can't fight this.  Bubble. 

INVN -- strong.   call buyers

 anything NOT strong? lol

AD  900+

bubble market -- fun times.

+1100 AD
.74% /tf

/tf: bubble market: test of O/N low then TREND UP

Sunday, January 20, 2013

The Signal is the Signal.

Trading signals to enter or exit a market is the signal.

What is this compulsion you have to 'frontrun' a signal?

Now what you're doing is thinking -- Hey, I'm so smart, I can anticipate the market than others so I will enter 'early' and get an even better price.

So this is your ego.  Your false belief that you are somehow smarter than the market.

And then when the signal never comes, you are so angry at yourself, full of frustration.  Why DIDN'T YOU WAIT FOR THE ACTUAL SIGNAL, YOU IDIOT? 

And you promise yourself you won't do that ever again.

And then you do it the next day.

And when I say 'you', I mean 'I'. 

Goals this week:

1) Wait for a clear  3-touch pattern to develop in /tf, /cl or /gc and trade it -- focusing on the Market and charts for a proper exit signal.

2) Monitor my own emotional state and avoid taking trades out of boredom or frustration.

3) Take frequent breaks.   Don't be glued in the chair -- it's unhealthy.

4) Get proper nutrition and rest throughout the week.

5) Continue to evaluate my trading and psychology at the end of each session.

6) Relax. Focus on the process, but enjoy it too.

7) Remain confident that my best effort will yield results, even if the profits don't reflect it in a single day.  Monitor my inner dialogue. Keep it positive.

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Remember to Deload

In bodybuilding, if you train all out for months, you will eventually injure yourself.

At best, you will fail to progress. You can't be 100% every single day.

After a week off, many bodybuilders can progress and make new gains.

My sense is, deloading as a trader is also necessary.

You must take a week off every few months.

It's just too intense.

And when you come back, you'll likely see gains.

Do it before you injure yourself (your P/L) first.

Friday, January 18, 2013

One thing I do wrong:

I  didn't trade much all day.

Eventually late in the afternoon I was really tired, and bored, and then finally, my will-power was done and I tried to short IWM.  I did not have a signal.  It was slightly up for a little while but never got up past a few bucks.  I eventually stopped out for a very tight loss (good thing there -- I honored the stop) but I knew right after I placed the trade that I was trading based on my opinion and hoping we were too overbought.

Well, there were some divergent signals -- but the CHART had not turned and there were also plenty of confirming signals we would finish at the highs.

It's easy to make money but I need to watch out after a losing trade or after missing a trade that I don't take bad trades to try to 'make something happen'.  This can be a really bad habit.

 I paper traded in the morning and made $210 in /gc and then another $150 in /cl.  By the end of the day, I was up $20 total.  I just gambled the paper profits away -- which is bad form.  But on the positive side -- my focus can be very good in the morning... clearly I start out sharp.  It's the afternoon to really monitor my emotions and decisions.  This is something important I know about myself and must remember.

Fri: /c pattern

Notice the mini triple-touch base near the lows -- almost always a great R:R entry.

/cl: triple touch pattern precedes the best run of the day

50 ticks up side and risk 10.

This pattern occurs often in /cl  and /gc  and sometimes /es

Fri notes:

focus:  let daily swing trades be swing trades.
             futures trades are futures trades -- focus on the process.  Forget about the results.

extended markets....

opex day.

premarket weak despite strong China data.

Consolidation day probable...

GE reports strong ER --  more good news.
INTC down big.

SNE - gap up after ystdy big day/bigvol. push.

/tf  flat --    going to be limited opp. today.

/6e - sharp drop on news - deadcat bounce.

/gc - jumps 1691 -- new uptrend emerging possibly on daily chart.

aapl under 500 again.

flat premarket is death -- chop city.   Avoid is winning.

strongest market:  GOLD

3 day weekend too -- who wants to be short on Tues.  morn?

CHOP day -- can't use 5/34 xover today --  no trend -- have to responsively enter  TL breaks earlier.

focus:  long gravestone/dragonflys after moves.

long  /gc  on TL break  1691.40   and out  for 21 ticks in literally 60 seconds...   9:17

-145 ADVN-DECN.   /tf  o/n lows...

long /cl  on triple bottom intraday  10t stop.

/tf  tighter range - tested lows, now highs....

feels like you can stick a spork into it...   slow... pinning already.

advn-decn near zero.

AD  -200    some sellers sort of... lol.

iwm  88 pin?   seems likely 

$VIX even lower...   lol.

long /cl  9t stop -- at 50% fib retrace - entry after Puke Candle.

/cl - stopped out -- this was not the plan.

/tf  back to green... lol.

$vix -7%  !!    /tf -- going for new highs  here...  don't stop believin. 

+300 AD. 

/tf -- double top -- touches ystdy high to the tick.

+374 AD --  Higher, higher all day long.

890 /tf --  .25%  --  ain't nothing but funny money, honeys and bunnys.  Don't know what that means.

IYT red, xlf red... and yet.... new highs /tf    don't question the charts...  just leads to headaches.

AD  +734     CRUSHING shorts.

extremely tired today -- wasn't physically able to concentrate.  

Look at the fib touch low of the day.  

/es 50% retrace and rainbow to highs - classic

Sometimes it's just that easy.

Guru Quotes

You know, if posting pithy quotes from successful traders or whoever made you a great trader, then everyone on Twitter would be making millions.

But mostly, I've come to believe, people posting all those pithy quotes are just mentally masturbating.

It comes down to hard fucking work, man.

Tweet that.

My Time

Need to focus on my own psychology more and time management.

1) Spend less time on Stocktwits

I realize this is mostly a waste of time.  Most posters have nothing of value to add.  Trading is boring and many have no other way to be social and connect with others.  Most of the posts are to boost people's own egos, share wins, or to bitch about politics or whatever.  There's very little trade ideas and the ones that are good are usually way too late.

2) Spend more time focusing on process and trade set-ups.

Goes without saying.

3) Spend more time reviewing daily charts.

I am doing this more with this blog.

4) Spend less time watching charts.

This may seem counterintuitive but I can't watch the market for 8 hours straight.  Focus is lost.  On some days, like a strong trend day - it probably pays to stay in the chair, but in the ideal day - I would find a trade, hit a trend and be done. 

You gotta work hard to make it but 'long hours' does not mean working harder.  It's the quality of the time.

5) Less time 'promoting' this blog.

These posts and charts are for me only.  I don't care if anyone reads them.  Almost no one does anyway.  It's a diary that's public.  That's all it is.  It keeps me focused on my work, helps me review and improve.

6) More time on Emotion Management.

I'm struggling because of emotional issues -- trading with a plan and then letting the profit/loss dictate actions instead of just following the process I've developed / am developing.  Every day should be spent being more mindful of my emotions.

7) Determining what days and what markets are offering the best opportunity.

On slow days, with low volatility,  increase size , decrease targets.  On volatile days, scale back and acknowledge the wide range.

These are just a few thoughts.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Thurs 17 notes

Focus:  One: Patiently focus on process, entering on x-overs and waiting for 3-bumps.
             Two: Select markets and position size based on volatility and strength/power.  What's moving?

up premarket.

/cl  strongest --   up .6%

/tf  880.8
/es 1468  --  strength equal vs. /tf

Ebay, aapl  up.
BAC down on earnings.  -2.3%

triple top  in /tf  on 5min. / 5 day chart -- resistance here ?

/zb  red, gold down...   conditions are perfect for strong day.... but so extended.

short /tf  879.9  on 5/34 xover -- after major 5 min triple top.   Need a 15t stop here.
-5 tick - stop on 5/34 xover  --  and instantly back to highs.

Need to trade with one set of rules -   1 min timeframe only.  So don't turn it into a 'swing trade'.  Saved over 10 ticks stopping out immediately.

Housing data in 4 minutes -- leak?

/tf  jump to 882     /gc drops --     positive data.   5/34 xover caught it way early.

/tf -- 883.50 is alltime high -- should be magnet -- 883 now...  easy.

883.5  and beyond...    blue skies
/cl  95.60 --    don't stop believin'

could easily be up 1% today --   /tf .58% -- so ppl. may start shorting too early....     'overbought' is not a sell signal...  or a plan.

so high vol.  high volatility today --   /gc  down to 1666  sharp sharp move.   Everything else up.

exciting open --  must relax, control emotions - stick to plan  --

/tf - almost  5/34 bearish xover... at 883.5

ewg, ewi  up 1% -- probably few think we can trend up from HERE.   but easily can.  Charts will show you.

+1600  advn-decn     huge.

virtually no move after open  - /tf

advn-decn +1400

short /tf  - on xover.

big moves premarket -- not much after the bell... need to trade early these days.

885.2 /tf -- obvious.

Should not have tried to short  -- Market Signals were obvious.  Negates any hope of contrary xover.

/gc - rainbow - after 5/34 xover.

/gc!!!!  wow   --   200 tick range.   now green.   xover caught a whopper.

if I'm trading well -- I should be able to lose 4 out 5 and make a huge profit when the trend hits on the winner.

+1300 advn-decn -- all sectors green....   we're in the midday chop chop period.

DECK -- sunk to 37.91 -- weak!  

short /tf --  advn-decn  diverging here....        off-plan contra  with $70 stoploss.

anyways...  needless to say Trend Up Day.

889.... +1600 advn-decn.  

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

/tf: Hoagies and Grinders

/tf was not the place to be.

/cl and /gc both formed excellent triple bottoms intraday that lead to big moves -- but I am trying to stay focused on one market and this was just a pure grind.  The low vix coupled with the weak ADVN-DECN gave out mixed signals so we had a gap down... grind it up day.

The intraday TL became clear at 9:30 -- (looking back at the overnight session) so one could have either responsively entered the 2 times it touched the line or attempted to enter 5/34 xovers to the upside and then catch the last 5/34 xover and hold for the TL (it hit target almost to the tick).

These low volume days are tough and I need to take more breaks.  It's exhausting in a bad way to watch the grind.

In hindsight, the day was obvious.  I should have been looking for the Line of Support and trading off it. 

/tf: grind days: enter responsively as soon as TL is clear

Wed 16 notes

today's goal:  Focus on the process, ignore the results.

weak premarket, gold, /cl down

/tf  -.49%  to 877.5

GS up on ER.
AAPL 490  (downgraded but  up 1.5%)
there waas positive mortgage news.

/zb just spiked higher.

/tf  - retraced to 50% fib from ystdy low print to high 870 - 883.50   - now 877.

basically the 9:30 open is designed to screw as many people as possible -- the first 5 min. move usually a fake... so see what they do today --   big spike up = short probably.

short /tf at open on -1100 advn-decn --  9t stop.  Very powerful Market Signals on sell.

/tf - stopped +2 ticks -- might have been too tight.

/tf - slaps down -then rips to highs --  stophunt action   gap fill.

short 880.2 - TL break   9t stop.

/tf much worse than /es -- risk off.

-110 advn-decn    market going to work out of the hole again - and bear trap?

stopped out of /tf -- but slightly green.

PENNANT --  formation --     VPOC formed.... we wait....

short /tf  878.8 10t stop.

perfect  3 bump in /gc
on slow days --   REMINDER -- look at other markets   you won't miss anything and may just find what you're looking for.

short /tf on double top + TL break.    advn-decn still  -500

11:52   5/34 bearish xover...     H/S pattern on IWM on 2 day chart.

advn-decn  worsening as /tf  rolls over -- stay with it.   lower stop.


DECK -- triple bottom then 1.20 move --- always the same pattern before the big move.

vix at lows but advn-decn negative all day.

AAPL   +22 to 508...   yesterday was impossible to get long... all sellers, today -- just straight up.

advn   -173 --  just grinding grinding...     low vol.   Err'y day it's shufflin'.

/tf -- grinds to a .02% gain...  whew

I notice you could have bought several 5/34 xovers all day and made pocket change 3 or 4 times on /tf

/tf - short  5/34 xover  8t stop  at 3:24.

/tf - finally some selling  879.50  would be the TREND LINE intraday.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Steenbarger Post: Why I Don't Follow My Plan

Ah, this was me today.

Steenbarger Post. "Why Can't I Follow My Trading Plan?"

No, this is me all the time. 

Caught this on Stocktwits and it's so true. 

If you haven't read any of Brett Steenbarger's books and you're still not CP, buy one today. 

Simple, Not Easy

There's a particular pattern I look for after a sharp selloff and it's pretty simple.  Often /tf or other markets will establish a small ascending triple-touch TL right before a reversal and that's exactly what set up near the beginning of the day. It's a standard entry and often provides big upside with very manageable risk.

It looks like this.

3 bump pattern: Set up before the big reversals, /tf

However, I missed it.  Of course.  And then there was a few bad trades and suffice it to say -- it was a no good, very bad, horrible day for me. 

Once it starts going your way, the correct play is to HOLD AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.  Now the 5/34 moving average idea has been borrowed from a great resource on twitter.  TradingFibz  You should follow him.

And the main idea is so simple, it's stupid.  If the market is trending - then stay with it as long as the 5 period is above the 34 period MA - and today - the ride was around 100 ticks.

The next few hours in /tf looked like this:

/tf:  5/34 fib lines keep you in for a big ride

Now there was more action but this was the big payday which was quite easy in hindsite but somehow I failed to jump on as I was too concerned about the negative ADVN-DECN.  My primary focus -- and system is based on the chart action.  The other signals are there for reference but the chart is what creates or negates the trade.  I forgot that today.  Don't let Signals get in the way of your Trading Plan.  I do it far too often.

I still have yet to see anyone on Twitter who is CP provide a detailed analysis of their winning trades each day.  So I'll continue to provide the perfect trade, even though it was not one I caught.

I'm sure a lot of people did great today.  Maybe tomorrow for me.

Tues. 15th Notes

weak overnight session

/tf  -.68    871.90  at 7:15 am

/zb up
gold strong
/cl down
/es  -.34

AAPL 501

/tf -- the Downtrend Line formed yesterday all day leads to overnight selloff.  871 breached.
LULU -6% miss
ZNGA / FB strong

advn-decn  -1400 to  -500   huge gap fill after the open -- AAPL under 490...
gold strong.

/tf - BREAKS   DOWN TL --- breakout -- but Market Signals hardly confirm strength.  

/tf --  -340  advn-decn  but GREEN -- hugely frustrating day for your average trader -- outperforming with other indices red.  

major triple top   11:36  --  3 day chart.

advn-decn -202 and   /tf  up .22%   to triple top -  and STILL strong

IYT, OIH, banks strong.      Market is very positive.  Open was a massive bear trap.

/tf -- have to watch the relative strength -- this was a bad short idea.   AAPL doesn't matter.

today's mistakes:

I tried to short a strong market  /tf
I tried to get long a very weak market.  AAPL

These are common rookie trading errors and I slipped back. I even lowered my stop several times and did not override this act.  I did it because I didn't want to accept being wrong.    It feels easy to short something that looks overbought / vv.  but I always pay dearly for this lapse in judgement.  Trading is about riding strong trends (for me).  I rarely make money fading strong trends and yet I often find I have lost my self-control and discipline and gone with what feels right.  Feelings will kill you as often the correct trade is the one that feels the most wrong.  My charts are right in front of me and here I am, thinking that I am right and the market is wrong.    This  mistake stems from my feeling that I am smart.  Thinking you are smarter than the market always leads to losses.  So learn from this.  It feels bad. 

I need to learn to :

1) accept that I am wrong
2) trust my system
3) monitor my emotions better - override impulsive, contrary trades.

As I speak, /tf is running to NEW HIGHS -- more shorts are learning the lesson.  You can't fight a trend and you never should.

Monday, January 14, 2013

Mon: Don't Play Chopsticks.

Today might have been frustrating for a lot of traders.  Good traders make their money rain or shine but for the rest of us struggling retail traders, today provides a lesson in patience.  If you did nothing, you probably did okay.  If you overtraded and lost too much today -- it's important to fix this urge to overtrade a chop day.

Around 15 minutes in the ADVN-DECN spiked and dropped and that was the only ideal entry of the day.

The key here was to be responsive and short and newly established Trend Line that had formed overnight. You had to have the courage and conviction to attempt to short into resistance and then hold for a drop back to the lows of the day.  And the entire move was only about 40 ticks if you did it perfectly anyway.

I can see the temptation to look at something like /cl with a 125 tick range today -- but if you're going to be distracted by 'action' I think you can get burned.  I am suffering from lack of sleep and in the end, I did not lose money today.  But I did learn something -- a reminder to be MORE RESPONSIVE when the advn-decn and other Market Signals appear to be mixed.  There won't be a big trend so the only big move is to play the edges.  

The chart shows the big resistance line /tf formed today. 

14th: Notes

AAPL  down 3.1% to 504 on bad news.

/tf - up overnight but now -.22%

TASR, ZNGA, DDD, FB strong.
gold strong.  /zb strong.

Gold stocks on daily charts look bullish.

nat gas very strong.    Cold winter news.
amzn, goog, ma, ebay, red...    risk off.

/tf - almost full rainbow to 874,50  -  Fri's low.   Now 876.2

/cl - long tail - takes out o/n low -- bounces sharply -- drops / rips -- just hunting stops... no other reason for movement but to hurt daytraders.

/tf  5 min. dragonfly candle at 9:15 - might be a low...   875.5

dragonfly -- good for 25 tick bounce at open....   ah...  had to be willing to take a chance.

vix  2%  advn-+330   mixed.....     amzn  - huge leader.

/tf -- clear triple top -- ideal short  879.9  


-200 advn-decn --   very volatile.

/es - took out ystdy - lows stophunt --  could bounce.

/tf stronger than /es.

-200 advn-decn -- no reason to buy dip.      vix  3%   /zb strong.

/tf -- well -- dropped just below  opening range low -- stophunt then sharp stophunt squeeze --
Today is a Responsive Trading Day -- have to anticipate switches...  no trend.

advn-decn  -130  : not much to go on.   Algos will stophunt on low vol., no direction.

HAS -- dips to 10 day MA on daily chart at 36 -- curious if this is a bottom.

Mixed Signals =  no trade.

short /tf - on consolidation pattern and break.  advn-decn -200  - very tight range here.  low conviction after testing high/lows in 1st hour.

/tf   exactly  unch.  at 11:52 --   the opportunity was the first hour.  No need to sit here all day -- you can't turn back time after a missed opp.

slow markets:  switch to 5 min. candle --   See the sup/res. areas clearer -- and IGNORE CHOP

triple bottom TZA on  5 min chart:   nice base for a run now.

pennant forming -- complete balance at 877.50

/tf  breakout to upside -- here... or fake?  hard to tell.   Market Signals neutral/bearish.

/tf - now break to downside...  

advn-   -130  at 3 pm.   Dell rumors woke things up -- still chop in the middle.

advn -230    sellers slightly stronger.

DECK strong end ofday.  

Questions from Steenbarger:

How do you generate your best trade ideas?

* How do you manage risk most effectively?

* How do you manage positions most effectively to get the most out of trade ideas?

* How do you most effectively manage yourself and your emotions during trading?

* How do you prepare for market days most effectively?

* How do you best review markets and trading performance for optimal learning?  

Friday, January 11, 2013

Fri: /tf OPEX - get 'er done (early)

Friday OPEX afternoons are often dreadfully boring so if you want to make some money trading /tf on Fridays - do it early.

I caught part of two shorts today -- very clear to me and will now quit for the day.

The ADVN-DECN quickly dropped to negative even as /tf was hovering near the highs -- a massive screaming divergence.  The second trade was an early entry off a triple top but you could have entered lower at the TL break for a smaller gain -- but more confidence in getting the move with no heat.

Here's the first half of the day in /tf -- pretty good gains for half a day.  I actually missed the first one but ended up +38 ticks.

Enjoy the weekend.

/tf Weak ADVN-DECN leads to short runs

Fri notes:

Fri opex action.

IWM will likely pin at 88 or 87 --  I feel like 87 is more likely but opinions don't matter.

paper short /tf at 877.9 on TL break.  

TASR, LNKD, DECK strong premarket.

AMZN, AAPL, GS, red.

EWG, EWP -- still raging forward -- it takes balls to stick with these -- nosebleed levels.
/gc and /cl red.

notice  /tf  weaker relative strength than /es  --- take note.  But that could also change up midday.

/tf now stronger than /es --   but market weak.    So flipper flopppedy...  choppedy.

-108  advn-decn ---   weak....

-500  advn-decn.

Had /tf  nailed for 30 ticks -- dumb.

opex Fri -- if IWM pins at 87  then buy the dip here is a fail... 

nat gas names getting hammered. coal even worse.   /cl down hard. 

caught  20 ticks  on /tf --  entered on triple bump  --- great read -- and perfect entry -- bounced as soon as I exited at the support level (IWM 87). 

really well done on that one at least. 

-451 advn-decn  means not much upside -- won't be around last hour for a rip... only chance.

slow day - you can trade responsively at top / bottom of ranges...

What Do Pros Think About?

The difference between amateur traders and pro traders.

Good article.  Worth your time.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

/ES : Lesson in Relative Strength

I don't normally watch /es or trade it but today, I was reminded of the need to switch things up.  In daytrade, you want to get long strength and today, /es was far outperforming /tf. 

Clearly the daily charts are in an outrageous uptrend so if one were inclined to buy a dip, it would have been better to focus on the stronger index today. 

Had you entered the obvious trendline break around 11:30 (just as European session ended), you could have rode /es for 12 points.

My power was off so I missed it all but this is a good reminder.  If a stock or market is weak, leave it alone (for daytraders).  Stick with strength. 

This is what the market looked like up until the wonderful 11:28 entry and then it was smooth sailing for the rest of the day.

/es pays the bigger reward today after morning dip

Jan. 10

Lost power --- trying to catch up.

So far a reversal day -- possibly gravestone doji on Daily Chart.

ADVN-DECN  starts at  +1534  now under +200

gold / gold miner  WOKE UP.  That's good for me.

DECK pleasantly green.

AAPL under 520.

slow selling.  This day was not unexpected.

/tf  now -.36%   hitting new lows... at 11:15

/es green -- so risk appetite way off.

/tf - breaking intraday TL  but would need to see double bottom confirmation -- too weak to simply buy the b/o today.

I keep looking at the daily charts -- and they keep me from trying to get long....  we need a real pullback here to alleviate overbought conditions.

URBN -- worst store ever  at 52 week high...    can't understand it.  DECK should be at 50 if this is for real.

Remember:  Relative Strength.

/es came out of wedge and was always outperforming  /tf  -- and /es  ran 4 pts.  but /tf did not.  Know your relative strength on dip buys.

End of day recap:

Notice how /tf ramped back to breakeven  ... but as I mentioned, /es was clearly demonstrating superior relative strength and it closed up much stronger.

The wedge break in /es was good for 13 points if you just held it with a trailing stop.

Each day, assessing relative strength is one of the primary goals.  I managed to catch HAS for .88 (and it closed another .30 higher from my exit) because I noticed it was acting super strong off a wedge breakout on the daily chart. 

Relative strength gets you into the movers and keeps you from entering weakness too early.

Today was a reminder to avoid /tf and perhaps look for the same wedge break entries on /es which was acting better.   I mostly avoid /gc and /cl because they behave much differently, extremely volatile and you can't use such tight stops.

Anyway -- I was out most of the day so I can't say much.  It's nice to be a bull. 

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Wed Jan 9: /tf tightness

I was out most of the afternoon and quite honestly -- I'm glad.

Today required a lot of focus for minimal reward.  You had to really wait for the spots and then the gains came fast and if you didn't book'em, you lost 'em.  Nonetheless, waiting for clear TL breaks and tight stops, one could have safely picked up around 50 ticks.

The low volume was the first sign things would not be easy.
The important thing to recognize though was that the ADVN-DECN stayed near +1000 nearly all day, indicating aggressive buyers.  Thus, shorting was not going to pay off bigtime.  And hey, what do you know, incredible China trade data after-hours shows once again -- the market is always right.

I did catch that little short break midday but that was about it.  I keep finding myself forming opinions when I should just be observing and playing the patterns.  If the market wants to go up, it goes up.  Oversold or overbought conditions are just opinions, not trading strategies.

The ideal day on /tf looked a little like this.

/tf tight range, small ball day

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Tues Jan 8 Hindsite /tf

Well another tricky day that looked like Trend Down but ended up grinding all the way back, providing a lot of smaller moves on the way back.

The  $advn-$decn got to -800 before turning for good, almost back to ZERO at the close.  It appears to me a perfect day would have netted around 90 ticks or so.  Once again, there was no need to anticipate.  You could have made all your money entering AFTER confirmation of a trend break occurred.  I actually caught two of the shorts in the afternoon for about 25 ticks -- so even though the trend was up, there were a few 15 tick drops to gather. 

So in case it's not obvious enough, I am looking to go with the flow and catch trending moves intraday.

Here's the day in a chart:

/tf Jan 8, 2013 drop and rainbow-type day

/cl Hindsite Tues. Morning trade

Here was a nice 30 tick move in /cl this morning with Fib Levels to get you in and out.

Now bouncing back up.

/cl TL break and Fib Levels for a nice morning trade

Tues Jan 8:

futures a bit weak premarket.

I started the day with a short on /cl after a nice 3 bump topping pattern -- bought AFTER the TL break and picked up 18 ticks with no heat.  7:35 am entry.  This is exactly what I love to look for and it was served up for me as soon as I logged in.

AAPL  up 1%  -- could pick up /nq a lot.
MON +4% on earnings

DDD continues -- story stock of 2012/13
CRUS - continuing -- was strong yesterday.  

I almost never trade premarket because light vol. can lead to sudden big moves against you.

870.3  /tf  is the lowside target (yesterday's low) - an important target area to consider.

878.7 is high (for the year) and the resistance area to beat. 

/cl - drops to 93.34 which was my original target idea for 30 ticks -- must be willing to hold LONGER - allow patience to pay for correct trades.  The low of 93.3 was almost perfect  61.8% fiblevel.

/zb -- breaking out -- this is bearish for equities ....

/zb strong 

advn  -180    not terrible --  rangebound again?

-700 advn-decn    /tf  drops to 870    IWM  breaks 15 min TL....  pullback has begun.

/tf  dips under 870 ---   Trend Down day developing.   /cl  100 tick range now...  full rainbow and more.

/tf -- well -  there's a major gap to fill and after that -- the market can really turn up -- no reason to get long with such a major technical magnet to overcome.

My instinct says  trying to get long today will be a lesson in pain and futility.

tried paper /tf long on TL break but the Internals were clear -- the trend is down --

Trend Day rules -- stay in trade as long as possible -- use  5/34 xover as signal.

advn-decn  -800    supports lower prices.

/tf 868.1 --  at 11:30    4 ticks above a major FibLevel and double support bottom (low from 2 days ago)

/tf -- close to 5/34 xover -- but not quite.

/tf -- so  TL broken -- but does the market just completely retrace with ADVN-DECN -700  would be impressive...

OUT FOR AFTERNOON -- expect very tight range consolidation here for at least an hour.

choppy chop afternoon -- time to exercise

afternoon choppy -- mostly slow grind up.  Good for 15 tick moves.   But last hour coming up.

advn-decn -402   not much strength.  

872 is a VPOC area.

advn-decn  -278   improving into close....   872  touch. /tf

gold actually looks good here.  GDXJ was green almost all day. 

sloppy close here -- going for 10 or 15 ticks pays -- holding out means giving back.  This was obvious as the advn-decn improved dramatically...  I see a lot of mixed signals but advn-decn did stay negative all day -- hence the weakness.  So if you sense the market is mostly mixed... it pays to take profits at minor support/resistance rather than hold for the 5/34 xover which can mean giving back a  lot of movement. 

Two kinds of mistakes
1) Not taking a trade - fear
2) Taking impulsive trades -- boredom, thrill-seeking

Struggling traders need to identify if they are making more of one or the other (or perhaps both).  Identifying which of these mistakes you make the most will help you immensely.   The next step is to interrupt the pattern/thought process as it occurs and replace it with a new, positive habit.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Mon: Hindsite Chart /tf

Inside day action.  Perhaps the most difficult kind of day to trade but once you recognize it's going to be a choppy range day -- you adjust. 

But in fact, you didn't even need to be a responsive trader.  You could have waited for the clean TL break 3 times -- and caught a total of 50 - 60 ticks while risking 8 ticks on the 3 main entries I found on /tf.

I use a 5 and 34 period MA because often (but not always) the entry point occurs when these MAs crossover.  It's helpful but not necessary.

Study.  It may help you, it definitely helps me.  And I did in fact, get the 2nd trade entry realtime for 15 ticks - posted realtime on Stocktwits.  I just missed the other entries.  Next time I'll get 'em.

/tf choppy day but still good profits in hindsite

Jan 7. Running Notes.

/tf  872.30  down .17% premarket.

AAPL  -1%
BAC up 1.8% on news

Europe looks weak.

DDD +3.7%  -- big story stock for 2012 and now 2013 continues.

Thinking 2013 winning sectors will be new ones -- maybe mortgage servicing, and possibly nat. gas names. 

/gc falling back down.

Using the gap open as 0.00% from the start of the year on /tf -- fib target for pullback 1 would be 867.70.  This is also the low of the day for last Thurs. so very strong target if sellers gain control.

PPHM -- +31% Noticed this on stocktwits.  Whatever.  Playing stocks under $2 is a good way to never get to CP.  

/tf 872 -- this is a  'value' area so hard to really take action here -- will likely chop back and forth especially on low vol. 

/tf  871.5 -- looks like a dip at the open

9;26:   setting up for weak open   -- not horrific... but pullback.  IWM has a huge gap to fill extended.  Tough tough tough to hold longs up here.  Massive paper gains for so many.

VVUS  +10% on news.  

-1000 advn-decn -- strong selling   but /tf  rising off open -- odd.

heavy advn-decn --   AAPL 517 -- buyers still hoping here... but sellers in control.

VIX  +4%

/tf --  SLOPPY CHOPPY.   if you can't see it -- don't do anything.

advn-decn improving,   /zb at lows --  grinding up again... but really weak overall.

nat gas names --  excellent, along with coal.  

/tf  sloppy  -- rangebound.

easy to get "bored" today and take a piss poor trade to "do something".

IWM -- mostly just a run to fill the opening gap down....   that might have been the top... but may not go anywhere today....

nat gas / coal so strong.... could support  IWM.  

/tf -- flopping over  11 am.  looking for bottom of range -- retest lows.  

WLT  +6%   coals rocking.

it's pretty clear today is not going to provide much reward or be 'easy'.

in a slow, rangebound market -- the way to win is to get responsive and look for a gravestone doji and take a chance.  this opportunity came at 10:34 am.  I noticed it real time but I did not act on it.   /tf just touched 872 which is a fib level and I would think that would be the place to responsively cover instead of waiting for more downside.

/tf  rainbow intraday.... coming soon.

/tf -- down TL broken 12:16   to 872...

advn-decn  -650
/zb is green...

Sellers stronger.   All major sectors red.  

pipelines, coal --  this is the place to be in 2013 so far.

advn-decn  -700  and push toward the double bottom again....   market really soft...  I expect it to break through to downside soon.    Still distributing.  

Nat gas names like DVN also reversing.

biotechs:  incy, sgen, amrn, celg   pcyc ---   another strong area.

trying not to fall asleep here...

caught 15 ticks on the midday break - was almost a perfect trade --- now back to 872 area.

so far buying the TL breaks -- 5/34 x-over mostly -- paid -- as usual -- going with the flow after a consolidation.

advn-decn - 363
vix  -.72%

/tf  just about unchanged....     inside day.   Nonetheless -- there was really 3 good opportunities today if you traded perfectly.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Master Yourself

Psychology thought here.

Answer this:  What are you addicted to?

I'm guessing the answer is not 'nothing'.  Everybody is addicted to something.  If you've really mastered yourself then maybe you're addicted to improving yourself through resistance training, healthy eating and reading.

But more likely it's alcohol, the Internet, gambling, fast food, chocolate, sugar, porn, cigarettes, crack or something else.

Hopefully it's not crack.

Maybe you're addicted to trading.  It's clear from the Twittersphere that some people are logging 14 hour days.  Some are Consistently Profitable so at least it's not as bad as gambling.

But the point is, being compulsive in one area of your life, especially if it's a 'bad' habit is almost never good for your trading results.

Trading well is going to mean being very disciplined in your plan and almost always withstanding long periods of 'boredom'.  Great traders are rarely bored but beginners often have a tough time doing nothing and that of course, leads to off-plan trades and that derails the entire path to CP. 

So if you have an addiction (and you do) you will probably be doing yourself a favor and admit to yourself.  

Now, I'm not sure if you need to quit it necessarily to be a great trader.  I'm sure there are some great traders addicted to alcohol or porn or whatever.  But it can't hurt.

The one thing I would suggest if you're still struggling is to try to find a way to discipline yourself in another aspect of your life if you feel you're struggling to stay disciplined in your trading.   Starting a fitness plan and exercisng/eating healthy is a great approach.  If you can transform your body, it will definitely give you the confidence and inner resolve to apply the same techniques and self-control with your trading. 

I know you've all heard this a million times but mastering the markets is truly about mastering yourself.

So don't be a slave to your addiction, be a master of yourself. 

And I'll tell you this -- you either will or you won't, but you'll do it when the reason comes from within yourself.  Nobody can talk you into changing yourself.  It has to come from within.  So if you have an addiction and you're just going to 'live with it' then that's fine, too.  Self-mastery is no walk in the park.  It requires a leap of faith.  When people try to change you, it's like those weird people that show up at my door handing out those Bible pamphlets.  Seriously?  Do they really expect I'm going to suddenly become religious? 

People telling you you need to master yourself and give up your addiction are like those weirdos who show up at my door.  So I'm not telling you do that.  It's a waste of time, I know. 

But the one thing I would suggest every trader do is review their own strengths and weaknesses and try to improve.  So try to improve in some way and you'll be happier maybe.  And seriously man, stop smoking crack.  :)

Friday, January 4, 2013

Fri: Hindsite Perfection

Today's trading featured an ADVN-DECN reading over +1600 which means bulls are not just in control, they are in a feeding frenzy.

As I am posting the /tf is selling off fast AH -- tricky tricky.  But opex days are so rarely trend up bonkers so not surprised to see this sneaky selling here.  Nonetheless, the money was made on the long side today.  Although if you decided to get contra and short the TL break near the end of day - you caught a really nice move.

Here's what a perfect day for me might have looked like in /tf

/tf: strong leaders = buy dips, exit at previous resistance areas

Super perfection, as I mentioned, would have meant getting short end of day -- and assuming IWM would drop back to 87.  (It did.)  So knowing there's a likely pin, you could bang out another 30-40 ticks on the dark side. 

Have a good weekend and keep working on the game.

Fri 4th

NFP data sends /tf up   .18%

Fri -- opex pinning action.

Some mixed action premarket.

Gold was really crushed overnight on QE ending fear.  Opportunity here... but too early?

Today is my least favorite day to trade.   Have to play smallball usually.  Few opportunities and small reward for your efforts. 

LNG strong.

nat gas strong   (inventory data today: 10:30)

aapl:   536   -1%

mostly strong premarket though.   ASPS, DDD, LNG, FB up.

advn-decn  +1200  no rush to get short here.... POWER!

got .60 buying the CSTR dip on CEO retirement...    I'll take it.

advn +1300  powerful.---

/tf 875.6  --  tried shorting too early 2x.  Small losses -- papertrading.

/tf  877 -- takes out ystdy  highs  on 1400+ advn-decn.

1444  advn-decn  - POWER    /tf 877.60

12:14  -- divergence -- advn-decn dropping  --  /tf  still elevated...

tried TZA for small gain...  market too strong -- may chop until 3 now.   too much rage to drop.

No catalyst for sellers to take control.

-- out afternoon Chart

I may start posting a chart like this each day.  It's what would be, in my book, an ideal trading day in /tf using simple technical principles.

Yes, everything is easy in hindsite.  But until I can trade like this in realtime, charting out what a 'perfect' day would look like is the next best thing to getting my mind to perform like this in realtime.

It looks like today's perfection would have yielded around 150 ticks on.... 3 trades.

/tf 3 big chops in hindsite

Do you know what a perfect day looks like?

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Jan 3.

softer premarket

/tf  870

FibLevels drawn -- first  38% fib target is:  863.60

867.40  is 28% fib -- this is also in a Value Area -- so that's 25 ticks that's very likely.

872     adp data bump

advn-decn:  negative....  should see p/b????

advn-decn -101 -- light rebound --  RANGEBOUND --- probably...

DECK strong.
FSLR strong.

INVN -- strong with option buyers.

RANGE day. 

yes -- hit o/n low -- back to  premarket high --    3 point range /tf  --   easy to see.

advn  +488

/tf  873.2 -- testing  all time high again. 

nat gas stocks strong.

/tf --  BREAKOUT   874

advn-decn +700     no fighting it.

short /tf  on  1 min  gravestone doji   9t stop.

Mini triple bottom pattern was good again (see chart)

tf:  rips after triple bottom pattern intraday


/tf   875   on +9000 advn-decn -- runaway.

advn +1000

LXK  +7%   wow.

advn  974  -- slight profittaking.

advn +1000

/tf  triple topping to 876...

IYT - transports on fire...     with XHB -- great combo for bulls.

+1100 advn.   easy to see why keeps going....   big money buying.

sharp reversal

advn 500   Fed notes reversed action.  
/tf  FULL RAINBOW  to  9:45 am  low....    perfect technicals in play.

going to start filling the gap from 1st day of Jan.

50% target is 863...


 3 big winners today - and I live TEVA too.   Also green.

advn-decn:  +171       still not horrible  but  /tf  -.5%

Had to be patient to really profit today.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Jan 2. A New Beginning

As expected.

First day is marked by mutual fund buying  -- creating major unstability with a massive gap up of nearly 2% on /tf and other markets.

AAPL +2.75%
CLF +4.6%

first trade of the year was to dump some MSFT in premarket. 

financials up huge.  BAC +3.3%

most disturbing:  /cl up 1.6% to 93.36
gold up big.

U.S. is set to issue more debt, create inflation - market bullish up to a point.  

/tf  866.9    +2.26%  Massive!

steel, coal strong on upgrades and China data.   Absolutely everything pushing market higher.

/tf  867.5   +2.37%    best gap up ever?   Another 'off the chart' day.   Happening all the time now.

8:50  -- 1 min gravestone doji.  Very small signal -- but minor top here?   on /tf  

9:16   30 tick retrace -   high vol.  gravestone doji is always tradeable with tight R:R.

advn-decn +2460   -- stellar.

Dow +229   at 9:41

advn  +2600
/tf  870

Dow +262     ragefest.

GDXJ --   best etf  +4.6%   inflation!

/tf -- breaking lower   866.6     advn-decn  topped out.

AAPL 546 -- sell the gap was the play of the day.

intraday slop...     just going to whip around and take out tight stops.

/tf -- fading a bit.

Fib target retrace:   865  then 861.8  for today.    Risk is $80 for maybe $200

-- moved close to first fib -- ramp into close -- new highs --  This Abnormal Days break most rules.   Stick with ADVN-DECN - - all dips are buys on Rampage Days.