Friday, November 30, 2012

Fri. notes

Wow -- saw the  TL set up in /cl

entered  premarket short -- and caught 22 ticks on a quick drop back to the TL.  Great read.

Pushing even lower too.

/cl --  touches below  overnight lows made at 3:40 am -- obvious now -- stophunt.

87.73 -- see if this holds for the next few hours -- in which case -- grindy chop action.

Market Signals weakening.   /tf   unch. now.

Topped out..

Target: 822  is 50% retrace of 816 - 828 run.

opex Fri:   Often   wide range action in first half hour -- play in the range rest of the day... but most rules don't apply past 2 weeks.

$NAMO +60 -- this is major pullback range.   We are extended on daily charts.  

/cl - Indeed -- grinds back up to 88.13 in sloppy action.  

end of month  - opex -- so prevailing winds could keep markets elevated - but sharp drop on Monday?   

weak Market Signals --  /tf   at 50% retrace.

/tf  overnight lows....       IWM 82

IWM --- 15 min. TL broke. 

/cl   SPIKES  to stophunt  doubletop -- great   R:R  short  with tight stop.  Why not?

If you just thought like a MM -- and considered how far you'd want to push to trigger stop orders... you could find perfect entries almost every day.

/tf -- well   smooth trend whoosh from 828 to 818 -- 100 ticks....  how could you capture most of this?

If you're looking for these moves - you just keep a trailing stop -- either you get it or it chops and you don't. 

Your system MUST have a way to allow winners to run and get out of losers fast.  If your wins are small... you can't make it.

I think for me -- I keep looking at 5 min charts because I need bigger swings on small account.

So looking for  Classic  top/bottom patterns and holding into the sup/resist. area that's my target.

opex  pinning:    typical Fri. afternoon.  

rip after the close -- end of month.    Close green.

/tf - creates a nice triple bottom before ripping 40 ticks -- same pattern over and over. 

Thursday, November 29, 2012


strong market signals means:  only a MAJOR sell signal set up for a short.

Should be looking for small bounce patterns.  /tf may take out stops at highs at close

Tech strong. 

Too many shorts getting hunted. 

/tf minor high -  823 -- just went through and reversal candle --  nice stophunt.

close near highs...

Opportunities in morning -- the set ups are only there once a day usually so take 'em and get the most of it.  Most of afternoon chop-waste.   No reason to be involved.

See your set up -- take it.   Have fib levels set.  

Prepare for triple tops at resistance and take the smooth ride.

If you're sitting there all day... it's just a waste of time.  The key levels are always there waiting to get hit.


Why do 90% of traders fail?

What is the key issue?  Probably many issues.

I think one main issue is clearly defined rules and consistency.

Rules are established and then it's easy to break them, frontrun your own signals in an attempt to get a better price or get out at a better exit.

Eventually, a trader is filled with uncertainty.  What do I do?  I'm afraid to act.  The trader is afraid of what the market will do. 

But no -- the trader is really afraid of what the trader will do.

Will I freeze this time and hold a huge loss? 

If you define your loss ahead of time and know what your signals are, what are you afraid of?

You will lose sometimes and win sometimes.  The market will always be uncontrollable so worrying about it is a waste of time.  And makes no sense.

You have to focus always on your plan. If you trust that you will act the same way every day.  Following systems, honoring stops, entering on clear signals, then the profits take care of themselves.

The seasoned trader probably does not think much about profits at all, especially during the trading day.

If you are struggling with fear/uncertainty.  Go back to your plan.  Can you clearly define it?  Can you explain it to another person? 

The uncertainty can be eliminated, but first you have to accept that it's coming from you, not the market.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Wed 28 NOV:

Using 5 min. candle charts today:

long /cl 86.48 on doji 5 min candle near previous support  15 tick stop. High vol. on the doji.

But premarket weak.

/tf 804
/es 1392

looks like EWG -  -8% ???

GMCR  22%
NBR  - upgraded -- may be nice intraday.

/cl - ribbons fanned to downside on 5 min chart.  Should I wait for more confirmation?

/cl  breaks to new lows -- through the support area from a few days ago.  Obvious.  No reason to take a countertrade right near a clear stophunt area. Need more confirmation to enter.766

/cl dropping to 86.17  support area from 5 days ago.

euro sinking...

stopped again /cl -- trying to enter way too early.   No  base to support a move.  Like trying to life a weight while jumping in the air.  Won't work until you land, plant your feet, take a deep breath... the setup IS the trade. The PRE-PATTERN gives the market the power to lift.

aapl  -1.3% premarket.

/cl  dropping further -- almost 100 ticks.   No base

dragonfly doji  /cl  85.40 --  major support -- first green doji -- and 30 tick bounce.

trend down Market Signals --   be very patient -- may not bounce at all today.  Trend Down?

/tf  bounces 90 ticks on bad news/ then good news -- wow -- that was crazy.   bounce took it too a clear TL formation on 5 min candle where it was correct to short.

Like the FIB LINES drawn in -- provides extra targets.

extreme chop -- 796  to 808+   KNOW YOUR environment.

Need to adjust EACH DAY based on volatility -- today is very volatile.  Hairpin moves with size.  So learn to speak the language of the market.

IWM -- double top on  5 min chart.  2nd top stop hunt.  May as well short here.  Either it's a top or or loss for $150.

well  -- 140 tick range   /tf -- very unusual.  Trend following with 1 min. charts would have picked up some of it.

Market Signals are mostly mixed.... really hard to know -- mostly short term traders involved.

/tf  just crawling...  over 810 now from 796 low!  99 MA showing the way.   Signals strong.

pullback has begun after 2pm beige book -- nice DT pre-pattern at 810

short /tf -- 5 min   3-touch pattern  8 tick stop   --- at 3:04

/tf - breaks wedge ---   trending up.  Have to stay with the flow to upside.

close at the highs ... was not with the flow psychologically.  Massive reversal day.  Have to accept anything -- follow charts.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Tues Nov. 27: observations:

FB  up 2.2% premarket. heavy vol.

/tf almost flat.

/tf  pops on  durable goods data -- reverses fast -- tricky and fast.

AAPL -- giving back premarket gains, almost red.

Mixed Signals again but yesterday market closed strong on weak signals.

Financials best.  Big tech leaders flatish but goog, aapl, tsla, wfm, lulu, fb still green slightly.

best to assume /tf will bounce at support areas -- growing bearish signals but still mixed.

/es  pullback to 1402.  AAPL  now  -.3%

/tf first sup.  806.5

Market Signals now close to trend down.

/tf  hits sup 1 -- rips to new highs  812 -- double top with LONG TAIL -- then drop to VPOC area 808.

low vol. rip - -took out stops

will make more money when you do less.

advn-decn flat,  tick flat --  /tf near vpoc area -- nothing to do here -- absolute worst place to trade.

806 - 812 -806 - 811 --  /tf  chopping for 50 tick swings...       hard to play but not impossible.   Need to be willing to switch sides quickly.

market firmed up  811.5 /tf --  advn-decn +650   tick stay above zero.

Refuses to drop.  tails above 812  --  FOUR TIMES.  Ceiling? 

clear triple top pattern develops  at 812ish area -- but market refuses to give up much.

Bought VVUS -- on strength -- supported above 10 day MA -- giving it .75 of room -- focusing on strength. 

Very balanced Market Signals at 810 /tf.   Market really just tested the 5 min chart. TL -- went as far as it could -- got tired at 812 on double top -- may stay in this range now as the edges are clear.

Rangebound day -- have to determine the range and be responsive... there is no other trade.

Trending market -- can buy breakout or every wedge break pullback.  No other trade.  

currently :  clearly mixed signals -- range has been established 806 - 812     ... 808ish is no man's land.

advn-decn +110   aapl red.  vxx green.   Market may be distributing.   IWM green but other indices red.

Clear  TL break and retest on 5 min chart  IWM.   No near support if it starts to sell off.

if IWM gaps down tomorrow - I'd think you'd want to short all rips -- we're on the cusp of a breakdown -- or pullback to 80 at best.

 Won't add more TZA  now -- only avg. up.

Sold TZA at the close -- got the best price.   Like futures, holding overnight adds uncontrollable risk.  But my thesis was correct.

Finding 5 min charts may be better way to find patterns -- go for bigger swings, be more responsive.  Switching to 1 min charts during trending markets for clearer entry/exits.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Mon Nov. 26

Futures down premarket.

/tf 802.5

99 MA leading to downside.

Market up 5 days in a row on light vol. coming into today.  

chatter on DECK  - strong.

First hypothesis is z-day, rangebound consolidation type day.   Market Signals are weakish -- but not terrible. 

I'll be looking to enter on 5/9 xover today -- play the ranges. 

/es just below 1400. 

/tf short - stopped for -3   tried  5/9 xover - anticipating rangetrade -- but bounced.  Hard to enter premarket on low volume.   Pattern/rules subject to fail.  Reenter - one last time.  keep the stop.  I lowered the stop which was a classic mistake. 

Market Signals pretty weak.  

/tf    new highs on weak Market Signals -- bizarre...    ???

/tf forming a wedge  805 -- break to squeeze or lower?  Market Signals say down.... but they don't always tell the truth.     weak advn-decn  weak $TICK.

If we rip higher -- it'll be a major surprise.  I would hypothesize we end up testing lows based on Market Signals.

FB  up 7%

/tf breaking down... from wedge.
/tf pops back to 805 -- POWERFULLY STRONG -- no patterns just a lot of chop.  Taking out stops. 

data at 10:30 - -might be frontrunning good news -- 4 min. to go.   Flat here.   That would explain bizarre strength.

/tf --  no movement  chop at 804-805 -- but looks vulnerable to whoosh down.   Can't see a clear pre-pattern though.

FB, DECK, DDD leaders.

5/34 xover  /tf -- down to 803 -- now looking weak.  short /tf  with 8 tick stop at 804.

/tf -- now 801.20 -- 5/34 xover was alll it took... 27 ticks and still dropping on heavy TICK.

So weak Market Signals were reliable -- but needed to wait a while for 5/34 xover to confirm and provide easy trend down.  Now -- probably correct to hold through small corrections and ride it short. 

/cl - nice mini triple bottom at 11:28 - marked the low.  Little Pre-patterns form before real trends.

small triple top and 5/34 xover  /tf  at 1:11  --  trying a short here.    H/S pattern on 15 min. chart as well.

AAPL  5/34 xover -- first time in hours after small double top. 
AAPL - back to highs - now a triple top.   Very strong... perhaps will keep running.  Probably a bad idea to short 588.  Too obivious even though it's nearly vertical.

AAPL - new triple bump - much cleaner - slanting down - now a break of TL.

on 5 min chart -- we are at a clear VPOC area -- really not a good place to do anything.

Today is a test of patience.

indices mixed.   Really no trend here except the big tech names - ebay new 52wk. high.  amzn, aapl.  Have to be in select names today to catch a run.

TICK hovering near zero...   don't get lulled into making a boredom trade.

and a rip into the close -- just didn't expect it all the way to 808.8 - nearly 20 tick surge 30 seconds AFTER the close -- 99 ma was pointing the way.  Just had to be willing to go with the flow.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Mon Nov 19:

futures up premarket

/tf  to 780 -- this is a moderate  resistance area.

/cl up to 88.

pre-holiday usually bullish but now 200 ticks off Fri lows...

so expecting significantly lower volume and volatility -- especially after Fri. huge move.

Digest and consolidate but bullish bias.

AAPL up to 535 on upgrades.
SINA up 8%
BMTI -- buyout for over 100% premium.
FB  +2.8% 

oil up strong. 

new highs -- pushing strong.   781.2 /tf
782.9 --  FIB LEVEL created using Daily Chart -- be amazing to see this hit.

and 782.9 HITS. at 8:58. on Puke Candle --  top?

/cl up 100 ticks,  /tf  783.50    IWM  83.40 -- touches top of 15 min channel.  Major resistance here...  but no short patterns developing.  

TREND UP DAY -- but gap up opens are different -- usually a trap to get long.

Trend Up Signals -- 
advn-decn 2150 --  HUGE.

Slight p/b  but Trend Up Signals prevent getting short   786  /tf  at 10:43.  

correct action is to keep getting long all b/o of wedge p/bs/

all sectors green, IbD list 99% green, euro rip, /zb red -- Trend Up Signals should essentially be a 'NO SHORT' policy on the day.  Although -- looks like a wedge is forming and breaking in /tf.

very tight range now -- not much to be done here.

Dow +160  pretty typical - oversold into holiday weekend.  Not much selling to reverse it either.

With 99 MA supporting a Trend Up Day -- the ONLY trade to take is dip-buying.

If you are trading for a living, you are probably constantly trying to simplify your process.

/cl - rips to new highs - takes out stops.   from High several days ago -- very very obvious -- using 15 min. chart.

market grinding up -- no reason to get in the way shorting. 

3rd attempt /tf - to push to new highs -- Trend Up Signals is clear -- we may not make new highs, but we sure ain't going back down.    However -- now a nice triple top forming over multi-hour period.   The longer the base, the steeper the chase.  For now... still poor r:r environment.

/tf creeping up but advn-decn is weakening and $TICK is flat -- very noticeable divergence.  /cl also broke 99 MA after a huge run.

trying short on  divergent  TICK  and advn-decn -- responsive short here -- so only risking 12 ticks

5 min  triple top + 5/34 xover.  Really HAVE to take this trade because it probably WILL fail since we're in Trend Up Day -- but a failure would pay off at least 5:1 if Trend Day somehow fails.

Nonetheless...  the basic rule should be NO SHORTING on a day like today unless there are much clearer divergent signals.    

/tf -- pushing up...  /es  above 1380 --  charts/signals say higher.  Dow up 181.  Is that "too much".  No such thing.  Bear market rallies are fierce for a reason.  Lots of fuel.

 /tf flat but pushing into the close.  AAPL  up over 7% !!!   best day in 2 years.   Major Buying.

IWM finally touches 79 -- obvious target.
/tf touches 790    from 760 on Friday...

/tf  closes OVER 791 -- right through VALUE area.   Bear squeeze.   Trend UP DAY was correct early on.

Sometimes you just got to go with the flow.

Friday, November 16, 2012


Might be the best move of the day is over.

/tf -- bottomed out 5 AM --  ran 70t  to  VPOC on 5 min chart -- double topped at 771

/cl  had an even bigger move  160t -- 5:15 am bottom to VPOC area at 87.   now long tails up here.

/tf  entry signal was a 6:15 AM.

/tf  763 - testing lows of yesterday  --    some IBD names green    XHB green -- may be testing.

holding /tf  for a key target is necessary or you won't pay for the losers.

In a choppy day -- like most opex fridays -- early entry is better.   Use  5/9 xover at the edges.   Chances are the moves are smaller so need to enter closer to the pivot.

/cl takes out stops -- entry was 5/9 xover -- broke downtrend then backtested to 34 MA - which created the bowl shape.

shorted /cl  on 5/9 xover after  stops taken out on 5 min chart -- near high, covered at 99 MA test -- for 35 ticks.  Very simple trade.

the 5/9 xover will only work well in a rangebound condition.  Market Signals are clearly weak so this was a great risk to short an extended /cl

I should not have covered at 99 ma -- let a trailing stop ride it down.  Winners must run as long as possible. 

Now a Trend UP day -- so rules switch to wedge breakouts on every pullback to 34 or 99 MA.

possible trend up day rules:   if  /zb red,  /6e green,  advn-decn over 500, indices up.  IBD leader board mostly green -- auto Trend Up.

/tf  from 760.50 to 771 on the bounce.    resting above 34 MA, 99 MA fanned out -- Trend Up look.

a fade will require a very clear triple topping wedge. Market Signals are strong.

/tf -- been over 1 hour since the rally --  5/34  xover short signal?  Should you take this with such strong market signals?  Obey patterns/charts or Market Signals trump?  (By the time Market Signals turn -- it will be too late)

IWM  77 and bounce -- OPEX pinning -- so basically - the best opportunities are over for today.

wide chop but 770.80 still -- so correct to avoid -- no real opportunity now for trend.

Market Signals on Trend Up -- probably some people trying to short this close -- going into holiday week... deeply oversold.    Why not just follow Signals and follow the trend? 

774  /tf -- resistance on 15 min. chart.    high of day -- Trend Up Signals provide the direction.

MAJOR PUKE 15:45 -- usually a top signal.   gravestone doji.

Triple Tail Top -- near end of day -- really see no way market can climb higher.  But Trend Up Day is hard to short -- won't drop.

Recognizing a trend up day (in this case Massive Short Covering, but to the same result) is 90% of the game -- it determines the kind of trades that will work.  Entering b/o's after pullbacks works. 

crazy day -- but charts were charts.   Just gotta be mechanical every day in your rules.

Thursday, November 15, 2012


More pain.

Nearly 120 tick range - top to bottom  /tf -- then a bounce -- now 766.6  -- devilish value building.

XLF, OIH, FXE  green and  TLT red.  So Market Signals are Mixed.  Bad idea to enter in a chop zone. 

Entry long on break above 99 MA with small base.   now  5/34 xover confirmation.

rewriting rules -- down to just 3.

99 MA below but not fanned out.

/tf 770 appears to be 5 min VPOC area.

/tf close 767. 

AMRN -- strong  - b/o 5/34 xover  good for .10f

99 MA -- following the TREND DAY -- but then... switching to a long after  40 mins past low -- take a 5/34 xover right after a double bottom -- confirm after breaking above 99 MA...  push to 5 min VPOC area -- then total rainbow to the 5/34 b/o area -- and again... more covering into the close.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Wed Nov 14

Market Signals are strong --

/tf  up .23% but chopping around after PPI data.

Now double bottoming to low of day.

Potential movement with Spain requesting bailout?  Possible news at 10:15 am.

/cl  -.22%

ANF  up huge -- so retail names, DECK, ARO  strong.

EWP  1.74%  -- strong euro /  Market pushing up a bit.   Respect the strength.  Almost trend up day Market Signals to start -- might just start with a rip.

CSCO, ANF  -- huge leaders 
DDD, FB (despite lockup ex), WPRT
ferts down on MOS. 

2 puke candles /tf  +  5/9 xover - long  because Market Signals are strongish. Rangebound Market - not Trend.

Israel  missile strikes -- Hamas leader killed.     /cl  POPS.   in uptrend.  over 99

/tf   - lowest touch in past 5 days.      retail still strong.

Trend Down day forming now...   follow the rules.  

780.7 -- /tf  plummeting.    Trend Down Day in effect now.   99 MA ribbon was clear.  No reason to have a bias or opinions.

still trending down fast.

/tf   778.70 --   MAs keep you out of trouble ... no bounce here yet.

caught 9 ticks on 3 long 1 min tails plus 5/9 xover - sold into 34 MA.  Small targets here only -- Trend Down day still.    /tf  back under 780

FOMC at 2 pm -- lunchtime chop.

LXK -- doing well.  Green all day.

/tf  down to 777 -- Trend down day -- there's no reason to overthink.  Sure, there were some small bounces but now back to low of the day. No surprises.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012


triple bottom  /tf  at  5 min sup. area -- long for counterbounce to 99 MA -- risk 6 ticks.

breaking lower -- this was against the main concept of always trading with the Flow.

Market Trend DOWN day premarket signals.   Dangerous day to countertrade.

note how /es went above 1430 overnight.   Markets tend to 'superspike' right before the huge drops all the time now.   Waiting for 99 MA to slope in the direction of the trade captures profits with little heat.

/tf  813 --    Heavy pressure to downside..    MAs fanned out.

real IWM support is under 81    , now 81.38.    This is a VPOC on 15 min chart so may churn here, build up hope before 2nd wave down.

813 puke candle -- so now it churns here  815.3...   Target is 99 MA but low probability trades here - chop area.

Market Signals dictate whether chart patterns/rules should be followed.  /cl pushes above 99 MA - trending up -- but we must look at the context.  Trend Down Signals means we must treat a single market acting strong with suspicion.  And indeed after a single 1 min pop -- retrace.

And /cl  - new lows -- crashing.

/cl - was actually a great trade after the TL broke --   50 ticks within minutes and sinking fast.  Know the Trend,  wait for the pullbacks/rips -- reenter on the failure.

Context is king --  60 ticks after /cl broke its attempted push.

stops:  always adjust to current volatility.

Dow -213     Market Signals quite clear --  Pain.   but IWM under 81 --- MAJOR SUPPORT. 

In the hole now.

/tf 806 --   support at 800 now.

99 MA and Market Signals saying NO to countertrading.

still no PUKE from /tf  -- grinding lower --   iwm 80.50  major triple bottom  on 15 m.

AMRN -- still green.

Context:  Market Signals  Dow -303 !    These unusual days happen and one should be prepared.  Rules Still Apply -- but too often people think there "has to be a bounce" -- well, do the charts say so?  The charts, more than ever, (always always) will show you.  Even if the market is down 2% -- it doesn't have to bounce.  It doesn't have to do anything.

AAPL is down 3.5%  way under its 200 day MA.

see ppl getting long... why?  The market signals are extreme.   Dow -329.   This is several deviations outside normal...   mean reversion strategies should be put aside.

Puke Candles on AAPL and /tf  and /es

IWM -  touched 200 day on Daily Chart.  May chop here...

What if you ONLY went long above 99 ma and only went short below 99?

Puke Candles -- may hold the line.... chop now.

/tf  touched 799  a week ago -- so no surprises to bottom out just below 799. 

TICK showing positive readings....  ran out of panic sellers here.

Puke Low on /es -- really nice bottom nailed.

/tf -- up  TL established...    pushing into 99 MA.     midday chop.

Must Follow Rules Religiously at first.   Be Devoted to your Rules and Money Management.

Short  /tf  on wedge break --  Market Signals in my favor... /zb  breaks to new highs..  7t stop.
stopped out:  Problem:   chop time so stop would need to be much higher -- volatility too high today for a tight stop.

aapl 558   -4.2%  !!!   No safe stocks in a bear market.

/tf - pops over 99 MA -- short covering rally  of 30 ticks  -- small tail candle but still trending up.

so - Trend Down day Market Signals but now 99 MA leading the way UP -- with mixed signals... probably best to simply wait -- and enter a short lower -- when things line up again -- for now 99 MA is support... and to short early is going against the Basic Rule of 99 MA leading the way.

You should ALWAYS be either correct for a nice gain or wrong for a small loss.  Your money management rules keep you CP.  How can you not be when you follow sound rules of trend trading?

99 MA is beneath... so why do you insist on making up new rules/ or taking small patterns that are noise?

If Market Signals and 1 min chart are conflicting -- Wait for Clear 3 bump patterns or wedges -- chances are we are in a countertrend chop mode and there won't be a Trend anyway.

/cl to new lows but /tf stays flat.

/tf -- sinking here -- 99 MA trending down....   the Market Signals were too strong to overcome so Wedge formed intraday. 

and /tf  breaks wedge to upside at 3:30ish.   Strong Tick  short covering...

99 MA - getting under -- so supportive despite TREND DOWN signals....mixed up here.

99 MA now supporting  /tf -- no reason to be short -- break of wedge and forming base.

small consolidating /tf  over 99  while in a trend down day -- required a 3   1min tails -- 3rd one led to breakdown at the lastminute.

Once again -- we see 3 touches before the move.

 dow closes  -312.      /tf sinking at the close.  

When stuck in a range -- wait for 3 touches before committing -- fade the range on the 3rd touch.

Friday, November 2, 2012


fri  chop is usual.

/tf fades to lows of overnight --  PUKE candle 823ish.

looking for triple bottom or  wedge break and small double bottom to get long.

now 822

821.50 --   15 min  TL is around 819.     10:09 -- may bottom out

5/34  xover on /tf in the morning -- this is all you needed.

Patience -- the setup only comes 1 or 2x a day... so why frontrun?  Why do anything else?

Once again -- the charts and patterns will never ever lie to you or lead you astray.  Your emotions and hopes and opinions will - every time.

small double bottom  /tf   818.2 -- now needs a small mini db  or  triple bottom to establish base.

11:24  will be  1 hour from LoD -- needs time to heal / consolidate.

double mini bottom is in.    very early though...

and new lows...   without a base... it's hopeless.

tried to go long /cl   despite being under 99 MA -- fought the trend.  Main rule violated.

10:42  - low for /tf

/tf  forming  h/s bottom

So often -- I'm seeing trends fail at the major sup/res. areas  on the 15 min chart.   This needs to be a more critical part -- integrated into the trades.  IWM is breaking down - but that's obvious on the 15 min  20 day chart -- there's no support here, not even on the daily chart.

bot UCO / on  xover  5/34     26.40 was a double bottom on 15 min -- major support.  target would be all the way back to 27.60  for  $950.

got crushed -- buying UCO. 

/tf  5/34 xover signal after a triple bottom...  long  819.2   paper.

/tf  bump to 820.3 -- 99 MA and pullback.

/tf  pinned 820.   Dead money rest of day.

/zb -- the gap down on the data was filled  -- opened at clear support TLT -- almost complete move back to unchanged.  This is a new TRADE PATTERN.   Fading major gaps into a clear previous sup/resistance area on the 15 min / daily chart.

goal:  To hold for large swings into the 15 min  sup/resistance area.  The 15 min sup/res. areas are the only places to safely initiate trades.   They hit, then wait for a double/triple bottom to emerge so you are actually going with the flow.

/tf - 815 -- collapsing     advn-decn  -1000      iwm high was into the 50 day MA daily - and then collapse.

major damage now despite half IBD leaders green.

/tf down to 813 --- 99 MA signalling trend down day  (despite gap up).  

/cl  broke to last support area.  

The problem with failing traders --- they don't have a clear plan.  They have a partial plan, but not a complete mastery of it.  So they hesitate at the moment they need to act. And miss the best trade of the day.  Then they try to compensate by taking  a lesser trade, which leads to further failure which leads to hesitation the next time the proper entry unfolds.  

5/34 xover  /tf -- but under 99 MA,  no Puke Candle,  no clear TL.

/tf -- double bottoming  - testing LOD

813.8  long - 10tick stop  double bottom.   near end of day. NOPE.    99 MA is the guide.  On trend days, especially, you need an absolute SOLID countertrend pattern to get long.

aapl  to 577 --- this is a huge fade  over 3.235  --- clearly a lot of people in pain.   

did poorly: I should be taking much smaller size...

did not follow the 99 MA which was clear and present.

overtraded/revenge traded.

did not follow plan.

did not chech Higher Timeframe for real support areas.  (they broke anyway).

/tf -- closes near 810....   total trend down day.   The markets spiked into major resistance areas and then retraced entire  post-hurricane move.  The key was identifying an exhaustion move -- and then maintaining a stop that would never have been hit. 

The weak trader keeps looking for reversals when in fact, the correct move all day would be to ask, when can I safely add to this winning position? 

Thursday, November 1, 2012

thurs notes:

/tf -- topped out 10:30 - THEN took 2 hours -- created a triple top.   Entry on first break below 99 MA was good for 50 ticks.

3 bumps - - distribution formation before the selloffs.

/tf bottomed 13:24 - still has not been an hour -- still under 99 MA -- there's no long trade here.

/tf - bounce thru 99 MA and rejected -- as I suspected.  Although may keep running... but we're in a chop mode.  No major sup/res. area here around 821. 

-- /tf ripped back to close near highs -- Market Signals were Trend Up. 

Have to be willing to respect trend days.