Thursday, February 28, 2013

Feb 28

/tf 910 -

8:30 data...

short /ym - break of o/n lows -- this is taking a breakout -- because

1) long base -- so a break brings out a lot of sellers on the wrong side.
2) catalyst - data
3) context - we're extended from yesterday.  Room to retrace down.

/ym - hammer candle... almost stopped.  It was a good trade.

Should have waited for the retrace back into the descending TL - and responsively entered.

/ym - staying below o/n lows...

ERJ - up 3% on contract win from army. - possible daytrade name.

DECK firm - ER today.  ah.

really want to see $VIX move for a drop.

/ym -- pattern is clear at 1 hour candles.



Like yesterday  - LO tanked.  Could you have known where it would bottom?  Um, YES. It dipped .10 below the long tailed low from 10 days ago on the daily chart and you'd have gotten a nice .60 move with no heat entering responsively at that area -- a .20 stop would have been fine.

Yes.  /ym -- dropping.

9:05:  /ES breaks o/n lows -- long flat base -- major entry short here.   1514

choppy -- /ym - top of O/N -- and drop -- easy entry short there.  same with /es

AD 400
UD - flat
/zb up small
VIX up small

no conviction.

last day of month - may push.

AD 685
/tf 912.4 - push to   ystdy highs...

/tf - trying to short a small pattern -- instant reversal...  I'm trading noise.

UD negative
vix green
ad 500

short /tf  again --  5 min TL break

UD negative -- may test lows?

/ym - decision wedge intraday and b/o to downside -- big move?

chop day - have to be patient and not take NOISE.


 two big volatile days --     small today? or wave down again?

bears gaining contrl

AD 200

11:03 - /ym breaks above WEDGE -- bulls back for bounce

UD blast to positive

internals AD 450...
chop again -- recognize -- save you from making bad trades at bad locations

/tf  913 - push.

AD 500   does not warrant heavy short.
Vix red.
xlf, transports green.

really? short?
not for me.

DECK weak into ER -- someone know something?  I say yes.  (And it isn't good.)

/zb nlod.
still like that short? 

tf  913.7 -- DING.

/ym new highs.

AD 800

short 914.40 --  red candle after extension  915 resist.

last day of month can be runaway.

short 2 /ym -- 14 tick stop.


cover /ym - loss
5 min candles are noise -- needs MORE CONFIRMATION to go against trend. Even at resistance.  

/ym --  shooting past what used to be a clear resistance on 1 hour.  So is this blowoff or new paradigm?  More strength than expected.

ad 944

Double top  915 -- was responsive entry short.

$TICK - nlod.  3:12

/zb green
vix green
AD 450 ---

Market failed at 2:30 --  indices broke TL all together.    Clean.   2:30.

tick - hits 1000 -- but this is often a bottom sign....   pukeage.   Now bouncing indices.  strong TICK followup.

DECK surging a bit -- maybe it's a 15% mover ah?  on huge beat now? 

and bounce into close...  

Frustrating - did not have the confidence to follow the breakouts or enter the double bottoms.

I should be batting 50% but the winners will be at least 3x bigger if traded correctly. 

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

/tf Major Pattern Recognition.

Here was the set up.

/tf  firmed up after the selloff -- market was confused... people were short.

And then the pop brought Power to the game... forcing trapped shorts to fuel a huge move.

The key is to recognize we have a Major Decision Pattern.


/tf Major Patterns lead to major moves

Feb 27:

rangebound going into 8:30 data.

PCLN - strong ER
VOD  strong

/tf 899 - testing top of range  901ish res.


ebay, amzn - below 50 day.

/es-  just touches ystdy highs - reverses -- PERFECT TECHNICAL PLAY.

/6e - double top at ystdy high - another perfect technical top.

AD  800
Vix  -4.5%

/tf - RAMPS to 904 --   stop hunt.   overhead daily MAs -- room to climb...  strong IBD names.

IYT, XLF, XHB strong.  

/tf pushing -- internals pointing -- bulls control

AD 1100  whew --  shorts on fire.

AD 1250 --    HUGE
AD 1400      bear rallies are the strongest...

massive trend up day ---- 

tried to buy LO -- it was weak.  What's my rule?  Buy strength

bought a weak stock, with entire sector weak. 
DTV -- meanwhile this was strong -- acted strong - and paid off.

AD  1500
UD - nhod

UD - nhod 11:46
AD 1500

triple top /tf  but no divergence

/zb green

/tf -- Bang    910  nhod.

AD  1600 -- really?  think a short will work?

/tf 910...   massive day
DOW 131

over 61.8% fib retrace from 2 days ago -- good place to die.

/tf - 30 tick p/b  -- within minutes....

DECK -- weak last few days into the ER....  have to assume it's going to be terrible.  But still holding 50day MA --

bot TZA because ... lost focus.  No signal.  no reason to short.  Lack of discipline is expensive.

All 'gut decisions' will fail.  That's not a plan.  The plan is the plan.  Everything else is wrong.

AD 1650
DOW 168
UD - nhighs all day long
/zb new lows
VIX -13.5%

basically everything I did today was wrong... somehow.  Impressive.  I could make so much money doing the opposite of what I do.

Dow 195 --
new highs...   outperforming... large cap industrial.

Tight stops will kill you just as much as wide.  Can't trade afraid.

DECK red...  bad ER coming?????    smells like it -- seen this before. (SIMO)

LOW TICK OF DAY  3:42.  ???

-- 3:45 - this was the time to fade --the Tick called it -- 

short?  ????  

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

/tf - Chop Day

Today I hit it well -- entering responsively at support and selling into resistance.

Best trade was entering at yesterday lows - and taking a ride back to 900 -- and could have held all the way past 901.

/tf rangebound - one good trade pays the bills

If you can't be patient, you can't win.

feb 26

AD 1200 strong

UD strong.

xhb, kre xlf strong.

but market in correction mode.

first attempt:  long /tf    11 tick stop:  9:52

+41 ticks for the day -- on /tf at 10:05 -- well done.   Nailed the top, too.  Ridiculous.

IWM - -failed EXACTLY at TL -- on 5 min chart -- this is perfect Technical resistance level.

vix -7%

rth, euros strong
slx strong
xlf green
HD --  new highs.

IBD names mostly green...

AD 800

/tf  896 --fading

AD 500

fading hard -- testing  o/n lows?  will it hit?  (probably)

and yes  894.6  at 10:30 - ben speaking.


AD 100

/tf -- double bottom  --     support here.

/zb - new highs 11:07 --    downtrend confirmed.

UD - signals new lows coming   11:30 -- euro close -- bringing in sellers

/zb rising

/gc - -huge move up though.

out of /tf long

+56 for the day.

key to today's success is entering where it feels most uncomfortable -- but  being very aware of the support/resistance areas where you can take that risk and responsively enter.

AD  242 --   from -200 low of day

bounce back to the opening print possible?   IWM -- in downtrend -- will it test again?

YES -  898 -- opening print touches and fade...

AD 735 and TF pushes to 899

IWM - TL break...    bulls in control.

TLT - rejected at 200 day MA daily--- needs to base to breakthrough.

AD  834

/tf -- tests over 900... now 899

still solid.
Vix -10%

Very mixed day --

/tf  same price as  8 pm  -- last night when it gapped open.    FLAAT with a side of chop today.

Internals are VERY STRONG though.   maybe saving up for last 10 min. pop.


long /tf  - last time risk 10t.  

Internals powerful here.   Support is the opening print.

63 ticks total today.   stopped out for about 7 last trade.

incredible -- to do so well in pure chop.

Will post a chart later.  Good chart reading / observations.   Saw the market clearly -- took responsive entries.  

Monday, February 25, 2013

Feb 25: trend down

Massive sell signals

and a colossal VIX +31% and rising....

This is a Pig Day.

This is not even end of day either...

Dow -200
Vix 35%

/tf -- 25 point drp -- to the close.

AD -1688

UD -505

Dow -216 at the close.


Friday, February 15, 2013

Fri 15: half day.

/cl - pop on Empire data - dirty reversal kills stops.  

AD fading to flat...

/tf -- touched  high to the tick -- NO NEW HIGH

short  923.4 -- double top ..

AD - not improving much at resistance. 

internals are fine... my bias is always a problem.

AAPL - 3 bump on 15 min chart.   Should break  hard... hopefully up.

internals are holding solid -- shorting is still guessing.

UD -25000
AD   50

very weak  -- at highs?

MNST _-  call options -- movement -- so obvious -- saw it early...  no faith.

internals say fall...

stay with the bigger picture.

Trading too much noise.

The whole game is knowing what's noise.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Thurs 14

/tf - drop to 5 min TL touch

/zb --  beautiful technical bounce - perfect double bottom 142.09 -- and nearly 1 pt retrace to resistance.  Overnight.

/gc - also double bottom - perfect and nearly 100t bounce.

/cl - sloppy chart.

/gc plunges thru triple bottom -- stops crushed.

/zb  dives back down
/tf crawling back to top.  CLAIMS DATA BULL SIGNAL

short /tf   917.6 - TL break
/zb - recovering with gold
IBD names mostly red.


target is 26 ticks - but could be a break down for even more.

europe weak  -1 to 2% down -- could see deep test.

strong dollar.

Correct entry was responsive near 819 - forming the triple top TL /tf

/tf premarket entry short. /zb strong

Get in on the resistance area - the TL break gives up more than 10 ticks.

There's some kind of need among many traders to make this process far more complicated than it is.

/zb - climbing

out /tf -   +9t  -- in general, opening can spike hard... sloppy.

AD  -1000

we can drop.

/tf 919 -- pushing anyway - jesus.

screwing it all up somehow...  

short  /tf  10:20 --  5 min. TL break
Market Signals bearish turn.

DTV, DECK -- out of both - made some $$

short  921 --  no signal but risk is 6 ticks.  

stopped -- that was not a good trade.

short 921.8  

AD divergence --     1 hour - top of TL --

/tf -- doing this with a NEGATIVE  ADV-DEC RATIO --   fucking impressive.


/tf - break and backtest -- now DOUBLE TOP pattern.

AD -300


/tf - TRIPLE TOP now.   11:53

12:21 - short tf  8t stop --   on /zb breakout s

12:50 - bear signal

UD - nhod -- sets /tf to new highs -- I was wrong today.... biased... and being biased is always wrong.

short 923.2 -- wow  nailed it ---

1 hour TL.

HUGE BEAR SIGNAL  1:23   we  have GOT TO DROP.

/tf -- 1 hour chart shows how it keeps reaching for new highs and keeps making support lines to springboard off of.

/tf: We're in the grind. Same game until it breaks.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Feb 13:

long /cl - on break of O/N - TL range -- instant 17 ticks rip -- as expected.  Great read.  Easy call.  Risked 9t.

/zb - major double bottom -- need HOURLY candles to see it from several days back -- this might bounce... but markets firm again.

will /cl top out at 8:30 again?  seems way too obvious the 3rd time round.

/gc -- touched the TL and died -- ridiculously obvious.  Stayed up at that level for nearly an hour before nice plunge.

/tf - rising new highs premarket.
/cl spike and retrace.

/zb -- still stuck at the double bottom area. 

CLMT -- gapping up on ER -- not surprised --chart is tremendously strong....   obvious.

LO - nice beat -- HUGE dividend --gapping up.

LONG /zb  -- 142.19 -- on  double bottom -- RESPONSIVE ENTRY.   bounced immediately after entry.  Wow.

big vol.  /zb candle -- too 6 ticks. 

38 ticks for the day already -- what an improvement.

/gc - BREAKS  3 DAY tl -  UPSIDE.   needs to base -- but bulls back in control.

/cl -  breakout - 98.24 almost a given -- too obvious?  I don't think so.

/cl -- still ripping past 8:30 - -shift.

daily charts uptrend --  buying all dips on strong names.   Don't Stop Til You Get Enough.

/zb  nlod -- bang bang bang.  longs are dead.

AD  +1000  strong..

tick drop -
/tf   testing low again already... hmmm..  9:47

AD 670

/cl - on the sup. line

/tf - -whipsaw back to highs --

internals predicted this -- too strong
AD 700

euro ETFS -- back in bull mode --  STROOOOOOONG!!!!!   above 10 day ma

TL - -expecting 920  /tf  target.

920 - ding at 10:21

/cl - pops on data
/cl - and TANK  10:39   fast

/tf - 2nd attempt past 920
AD 900  supportive.

short 919.8 --   9t stop.

out /tf

43 ticks total today -- great patience.

Very calm - -feeling no emotions at all.   Pure chart action.

AD  800
chopping time til 11:30

/tf -- sharp drop 917

that entry at 920 -- when it looked so strong -- WAS THE SHORT.  The worst place to enter emotionally is almost always the best futures trade.

/tf the top was in days ago - the line is the line

Needed ONE HOUR candles to see the line.

/tf  915.7 - reversal to red.

Internals support lower down to TL support line -- it's not here.

short /tf 917 --- descending TL   6t stop.

AD +400
stopped  -6t

midday -- worst time to do anything.... no action.

/short /tf  917 --  intraday wedge break
Bear Signal


HAS TO BE -- HAS TO BE A WINNER HERE.  yes yes -- great job -- this trade was an absolute GIMME -- it was small but 99% chance of winning -- just had to wait for it -- and it was that clear.


/cl   70 tick drop to resistance - - -   AAAAAAAAAH.

covered /tf

55 ticks total --

AD almost zero

/tf  nlod.

Market Signals  say LOWER....

looks like a good place for bounce-- but signals say dead cat -- even lower.   2:37

really good reads today.

Worst mistake was seeing the /cl break perfectly and not taking it for 70...

AD  negative!!

915  /tf -  nlod!

UD -- crushed -- going lower..

/tf 915 - holds 3rd time - bounce back
signals bullish.

/tf - near the opening print...        snooze it

AD 260

3:45 -- looks like bulls still win.

IYT - new highs...

Well - this was a good day.  Leaving early.  Don't ruin it. 

You don't have to sit here all day to be a good trader.  You just have to bring your A game every time you sit down.  (That's a quote from me.)

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Feb 12

Did not see the markets well today.

I did observe the internals were very strong.  But I didn't capitalize on any opportunities.  I couldn't see where to find entries.

After the fact, I realized I should have been entering ON the 5 min TL touch at the open in /tf.  I noticed /tf is touching a rising TL from the TOP -- not a supportive TL - but more like a resistance TL that keeps rising.  /GC - is doing the opposite and just recently returned back to its declining TL after a steep morning drop -- it got too extended.

These TL formations are infrequent and provide the big swings.  Catching just one a day is all you need to make huge profits.

I saw that /cl topped out at 8:30 and it bottomed out at 8:35 the day before and bottomed at 8:30 a few days earlier.  There are key times to watch for.

I need to have a set of rules in front of me and I need to wait until the signs are crystal clear to enter/exit -- no reason to be overtrading.  Some trades are just obvious - but you miss them if you've wasted all your energy on suboptimal trades.

Feb 12

6:42 - /cl takes out major resistance area -- attempting a short at 97.3 -  stopped out once for 10t already --this time waited for TL break with 5 min chart after two longtailed candles -- need to see some kind of exhaustion pattern before a short can hold.

Nikkei up almost 2%

/es and tf muted and /gc is weak --- /cl may retrace.

I think the best way to buy /cl is breakouts out of multi-hour pennants/flags -- /cl plays by a different set of rules -- sometimes it can trend for days --- there's just no fading sup/resistance with confidence.

With stocks - keeping my universe to those over $15, with high volume, and elminating names with volatile, jerky charts (GNC, etc.) -- helps me spend less time by auto-eliminating many stocks -- and only gravitating toward the fastest movers.

/cl --  -21 ticks total trying to short...   waste of time.  There's no resistance.

/tf -- up to 913 -  new highs comign?   resistance (for now)

/cl - 97.80 touch -- POWERing.

/tf -- entry should have been at b/o of wedge.  

/tf - new highs - 4th test -- so possibly can keep going...

If you are a serious trader you should not be using the words "fun" "boring" or "easy".   - Random thought.

/cl - bottomed at 8:30 am ystdy.  If this tops out at 8:30 today -- it'd be ... less than surprising. Good observation someone on my screens noted.

INVN - looks poised.
KORS, CP, ASGN, DECK -- strongish.

so - gapping up to new highs at the open -- shorts either getting a perfect entry here or gonna get skewered in a trend up day or half day. 

/zb spikes
/tf - retraces off highs...  good entry - responsively shorting in that hit.

/cl -  highest vol. candle is big and RED. 

/cl - rebounding now ... consolidating phase.

much like bodybuilding -- less is more.  If you overtrain, overtrade, you make less muscle/profit.  You pick your spots -- hit it hard,,, then do NOTHING -- you make the most gains.  You can't make more money in a swing trade by micromanaging it... anything else you do.. taking partials... etc. diminishes returns. 

I keep deleteing the 'intellectuals' from my Twitter stream.  They don't help me learn.  The tweets on price action -- brainless chart reading/observations -- are the most helpful.

internals fine...

/tf  914.4 --  boom - -ppl getting tricked on the squiggles -- big picture is way too strong

XHB, XLF, TAN, and GDX -- strong.

AD  500
UD - strengthing

/tf  915

XHB - fresh b/o  - could swing higher -- leading.

/tf - there is resistance here now...   so shorting is a very poor game until we know what's what.

/tf -- 916 -- told you.

XHB  2.4% -- man - LISTEN -- this is not shortable.  It's OBVIOUS at least that shorting is wrong. 

test of  high  ( now support)

internals support push.

AD  630 - supporting new highs...

UD - nhod.

AD 700   e

/cl -- BREAK  of wedge - bearish.  11:25 --  this is the entry to take.

/cl backtesting the wedge break....   willl it really fail?

/cl -- grinding back up - longest backtest ever.

/tf - triple top -- grinding --

Internals too strong to drop.

AD  715
UD nhod

fake drop... /tf   

AD  750  nhod.

/tf not rising yet...    

/tf -- this sounds crazy but we could see 920 today  -- 12:34

/cl - double top and TL break on PUKE candle -- holding SCO for swing. 


UVOL_DVOL nhod  --
AD 847

We can rip into close.


1) Daily Chart in uptrend
2) Market Signals strong

3) therefore: we should be looking LONG on dips only.

AD fading
tick red
/zb - double bottom turning up at 3:04

There's no way you could have called the top in tf, right?  Oh wait, yes you could.

TL -- patterns are always there.

Uvol-Dvol - nhod -- where's the rip?

AD 784 -- plenty of power.

internals say /tf closes at highs...

338: bear signal

tf - balanced 916ish.

DMND -- 68 fib -- retrace -- bullish over 20 day -- risk 1 point.

UV - nhod -- don't SHORT!!!!


GDX - closing strong.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Feb 11:

8:57:  /tf double top - resist 913.7 -- drops 20 ticks.

/gc -- huge plunge to new lows under 1650.

/cl down.

Daily is in uptrend but we have to room to consolidate lower -- forma rising TL.

ASGN, AOL, KORS strong.

nat gas, oil, gold tsla, miners weak. 

/cl - fast dip to just under last WED lows -- and 40t bounce.  That was a good support area after the stophunt.

/tf  -.08% not giving up much.

/cl - bounced drop again, same with /gc.

/tf - 912 - midzone

9:56 -- bear continuation signal

AD -400      churning --  /tf  forming a base...  but bear flag?  or bounce?

/tf - breaking TL  intraday

11 am -  algos kick it to /tf 910 retrace.

/cl: stop hunting recent lows, then highs

/cl  - note areas:  classic.

XLF - strong as bull --  over 10 day --  carrying the load.
currencies strong
SMH strong.

chop mode --   terrible time -- midzone /tf

1 pm:  /gc breaks TL  -   intraday.

internals do not support /tf -- nothing here but noise -- 10 tick moves.  No  areas of concern.  No good trade location.

Long GDX -- this IS a triple bottom coinciding with /gc  TL break.   -- easy .30 stop.

short /cl -- double top and TL break -- risk about 16t.

/tf  -- value area here 910 forming... so nothing to do. 

AD -580
zb strong

intraday bears mostly in charge.   but many pockets of stregnth - balancing...  at 910

FOSL  ---  today it's SQUEEZE 'EM HIGH.

short /tf -- stop 6t.

internals weakening  - 1:50  stay short /tf

bull signal  out /tf  for 1 tick... woot.

and pop! :)

/cl - nhod -- triple top break.

/long /tf --   Bull Signal  /tf break 910

/tf  911 -- long tails. ...   good strength into close --  

Best trade of the day was 8 am -- seeing the resistance area form -- and getting in with 10 - 15t stop. 

Know your support/resistance areas.

Correct play means you're done by 10:30

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Friday's /tf

What we see here is a classic pattern. 

What we know is:

1) IWM is in an uptrend. It closed above the 10 day MA on the daily chart.  This is as bullish as it gets.  We must keep context in mind.  This market is strong.

2) On this intraday chart -  5 min  candles -- we zoom in on overnight action. The range is very tight.  One white dragonfly candle at 5 am shows a drop was quickly rejected.

3) At 8:30 - we see momentary weakness and the market appears to breakdown, moving below the bullish dragonfly candle at 5 am.  But again, keeping higher timeframe in mind, this is going against trend so we watch carefully and sure enough, the market reverses and moves to the top of the developing TL.

4) At 8:40 - the TL breaks and here is an ideal opportunity to get long.  All the sellers in the overnight session and shorts are starting to realize this pattern is broken and will need to reverse.  This formation is several hours long -- plenty of fuel to create a strong actionable move. 

5) /tf explodes from the breakout. We quickly look for the next clear resistance area -- the highs from yesterday.  Indeed, /tf pushes all the way through -- taking out stops.  This occurs on the highest vol. candle of the day so far -- a sure sign of exhaustion.  Sure enough, /tf reverses and moves sideways for over an hour.

6)  The same exact trade repeats - with a breakout of the flag pattern, spurring new short covering.  This move is now at all time highs so it's difficult to gauge how far it can run.  It's still over 20 ticks and finally hits highs for the day.

Remember to know context, key support /resistance areas, volume exhaustion to indicate a move may be over... and the length of time of the consolidation pattern. 

I think this chart is clearer and I'm not sure moving averages are helpful for me anymore.

Friday, February 8, 2013

Fri 8th

snowstorm today.

7:25 - /zb bullish xover.

/cl up .4%

/cl  TL up.   and broken -- sell signal  96.17.

/6e  1.3390 --  3rd touch - forming a support line... flat.

/6e - broke line
/es - break after triple top -- looks good short.

/6e - starting new leg down 1.3369 --  measured move?

/es 1505 - -

/zb - strong.

GLW strong with vol.

8:30  /zb - drops on data --     quick moves... /es reverse... /cl

8;43 - /tf rip  907  - top of channel.   4touch

Fri -  smallball range chop day?  Need to play responsively off sup/res.   won't be trendy probably.

/cl -  getting sloppy now -- know when to avoid  9:00

/zb  sinking --

AD  622     strong
/zb  dead.

first 20 minutes often the wrong way....

/tf  909
AD 700

ad 1000
zb  nlod

/tf triple top ...   no signal yet.

short  /tf  10:29 --  /zb  curling -
retrace target to 5 min TL.

/zb  xover   up

/zb - triple bottomm.....     bearish div.
 10:41 -- rip
10:37 was a bull  signal  but... zb not with it.

another quick stop on /tf short

AD 1000  does not warrant it.

not listening to market well... 

/tf  WANTS 912 -- all time...  have to think 912....   YES -  good observation.

we're in a choppy time already...

must remember -- do NOT trade /tf on FRI - always chop.

/cl much easier.

/zb and AD -- worsening  11:02 -- /tf can hold this?????

SMH - bang new highs -- taking out the tops

/tf - breakout
/zb doesn't mean squat.

AD 755
uv strong

Lots of good stocks.

/tf  912  --    bang.

AD 900 -- lunchtime need to break .

/6e  does not look good.

/tf 913.6 -- and sellers came in now for pin?
/cl - took out Thurs. lows...  weak.

TEVA ignores 50 day  resistance-- just plows ahead.

daily indices - are all bullish uptrend -- bulls in charge

/tf -- in another pennant ...

AD --  lower highs -- divergent..


UD -- shows highs are coming.

/tf  breaks its wedge  912 break.

Is this not the happiest market in the world?

CLMT -- bamm

LNKD -- now that's just crazy.

GOOG busted out new highs...

short /tf  --- signal is there...   almost 3 pm.

/zb pushing.   Does it matter?

/tf -- this is going to do some fake b/os -- it's pinning so no move here EOD.

Today's HIGH was at 12:15

we've seen markets topping and bottoming around noon often this week.

AD 848
/zb  - ripping....   feels like chop...

/cl -- play of the day

Thursday, February 7, 2013

Study: 200 tick move in /6e - and Failure /es

This morning /6e dropped nearly 200 ticks.

The pattern that formed before the move was pretty standard.  No surprises.

The pattern was about 4 hours long.

The resistance line was tapped 4 times -- 3 is typical -- two taps were very close in time.

The support line was tapped 3 times before it broke.

The move started on the second break - there was kind of a hinge but a 10tick stop would have been fine on the first move.

Study this set up.  It's not uncommon.

/6e topping pattern before the move

Add ON

Here's /es chart.  A failure looks the same -- you never know, so you use a tight stop and lose small win big.  Here's /ES the next morning.   It dropped a point then reversed to the upside.

/es Similar pattern - no need to lose more than 1.5 though

Feb 7: Three Bumps Signal

Main Goal: Focus on Higher Timeframes to see clear resistance/support areas.   (/6e drop this morning great example)

Well - we are back in bull mode on daily trend so -- again, know your context.  Huge rips to close the day are not surprising.   Daily Chart is UPTREND.

8:30 - bunch of data coming out.

/cl - takes out Wed. highs --

GMCR - big miss  -7.5%

/tf 909 -- took out Wed. highs o/n session -- pullback to TL on 5 min chart would be around 904

/cl -sharp top out over 97 -- and 30t drop.   volatile here.

/tf - strong


TEVA - worst.

/cl -  tanking after  stophunt rip
/tf  red after  initial claims-   triple toppish.

AAPL - strong -- 10 day MA break ystdy.

/tf - VERY sloppy --  tails - green to red...

/6e - plunge below Tues LoD.   101 tick drop from this morning high.

/zb  - overnight high hit

/cl - dives then rips right back up -- fast and dirty.

/tf  flips (again)  909.7

/cl - another stophunt  97.21 --   takes out 3 am lows, 8 am highs -- DIRTY algos.

/6e - total meltdown due to Draghi -- brokeback -- steep pullback coming based on daily charts.

/cl - strongest.

careful -- first hour may be trendless   (other than 6e)

If choppy...  view from 5 min to avoid chop?

/tf - 2 LOOOOONG tails at open - sloppy stophunters

absolutely horrendous trading /tf --  papermoney blowout.

/tf - sinking -- sad thing is -- I was correct to try to short the whole time...


AD  -258  

vix, /zb --  bearish signals.

will have to review --

/tf - takes out o/n lows

/tf  904.1  target --  5 min TL -- almost touched.

AD  -700  heavy

GDX  strong -- big bounce

DECK won't quit

-1000 AD


need to wait for a pennant / flag before taking 5/34 xover....

internals - say MORE DOWNSIDE  10:35

-1200 AD  -- down down down

/6e  -1.12% -- HUGE.   taking everything with it.

10:54 --  AD  possible LOW.

/tf - pops up to TL and REJECTED.

11:00  /6e - stopped  support 1.34 - probably CHOP here now -- consolidate.

long /tf  5/34 xover - -    Should I have waited for the 2nd xover???   YES - AD improved at 12:02

/zb  - bullish xover down...

definitely chop awhile here - -      balancing out.   AD  stopped... improving slightly.

AD  -1100   Trend Down day usually.

GLW -- above 20 day again.

GDX -- well... interesting strength here -- glaring .. and so oversold.

12:01 - AD -   upmove - -then 5/34 xover for 35-40 ticks.

12:50  LONG /CL  XOVER --

12:52 - AD sell signal
/zb xover confirm.

stop thinking your smarter than the chart.  The chart is the chart.  Trading 'against' it is just going against direction.

/cl   nlod

/tf - stopped out --  no xover - but price xover.    too tight?
 /tf - full xover.

/tf intraday double top and xover.  short

/tf -  creating a pennant.

AD -680   improving since noon

/tf back to 906 --

getting stronger.  

ad  -1100 -- u don't just 'go long' cuz it's 'oversold'

whole day should be over...

/tf - triple bottom....  could hold.

5/34 lines were there - but had to wait for first 15 min. of   robo-chop then it was smooth.

/cl was even better.

 Here's THREE MAGIC 3 BUMPS -- all in the same day.

The point being - even intraday, the market loves to form a base before each significant move.  Sometimes it's even stronger, developing over 2 or 3 days on the 5 min chart.  But I've found the MINIMUM TIME FOR A BASE that leads to a significant (let's say at least 30tick move) is one hour.  So market bottoms - you're pretty sure it's the low of the day... you still most of time have at least an hour to get an entry in and most of time you should wait this long. 

IYT - new closing high????

2:48  long /tf -- triple bottom  -- /zb dropping  -

DECK, TROX --  call buyers active.

3:02 - algos hit SELL !!!!

WPRT --  smaller cap, high short - this is a name to avoid due to volatility, low vol.  Not worth it.

mixed up

/tf break but /zb - deep sell...     trapping ppl.  algos on chop mode - like this morning.

FTEK _-  possible breakout  on 3x vol.

don't have to take a signal if the Market Signals are conflicting.     No rush.

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Wed. 5 min view

Today's bottom was so obvious... you'd think it'd be impossible to miss but I did because I was too focused on the 1 min chart.

always look at higher timeframe

Wed 6th

Well, if I'd woken up at 5 am and gotten in the /tf short...

my day would be over by now. 

Overnight sessions often deliver the easiest fastest trends... which setups up for a horrible day session now... starting with gap down zipper grinding action.

BIIB strong.

/tf -- full rainbow to Tues. lows ---

/cl also full rainbow to low from weeks ago. 

eliminating  choppy, volatile names and stocks under $15 really helps focus -- and avoid getting into most traps. 

/tf  8:40 - thru ystdy LOWS -- nlod. 
/es 1500 test
/tf  under 900 with heavy vol.

/tf -- 900.7  bounce starting
/zb  bearish  xover.

rules:  need a bottom pattern to get long.   small double or triple.   Too early.

/tf,  /cl
5/34 xover --  /cl  -- 20 ticks so far ...

since these xover are counter to daily trend  20 ticks or so would be target...  assume Daily Trend rules...  counters will fade.

9:45 bear signal

9:48 bull signal....    chopper.

DECK  -- in and out  for 26ticks.   saw the strength, bought the strength...  easy, no heat.

/t f-- double bottom then 5/34 xover -- missed this  for 20t.

short /tf -- straight TL break -- because I am going with the flow -- I don't need a 5/34 xover (will be too late) -- 10t stop.   once again, this was not a Main Plan trade -- making up your own rules.  No xover = no profits.  It looked really good but  -9ticks is reality.


10:01 -- AD  topped out at -500  flow is down.

/cl -  bullish xover  after o/n drop.

10:08 bull signal  - push

AD - nHoD


/tf  nHoD -- gap filling grind up

/tf -- popping -- stalling... 

10:30  BEAR signal.

SHORT /tf  -- 903.1   5/34xover    Bear Signals.    10t stop.

/cl -- keeps climbing though.

stopped /tf -- too tight?    not quite a xover yet.

/tf  nhod

/cl -- ripped 130t off bottom....   and I saw this 100 ticks below xover.

FSLR -- thru 20 day MA --   break out.

AD  +67
/tf 906.5  - -rainbow....

read the charts,
your opinions are worse than worthless -- they betray you every time.

/cl --   so much better  -- 200 tick swing!   need to keep mind open about /cl 

AD  nhod

AD  +109        shorts on fire.

/tf  908!  - chart says so - all the way to o/n highs..

the chart is dumb but it always chooses the correct path.

AD  272

/zb - bullish xover  12:27  -- market has topped out at this time recently.

12:29   5/34 bear xover  /tf

looks like i'm wrong....  fighting the trend even way up here against resistance -- market has strength.

AD, UD - nhod -    I'm wrong.

PANL, FSLR, NFLX, MNST -- short squeezes

/tf    2nd  5/34 xover --   despite it all.  

1;02 -- TICK   nlod

and out for the day.

3:35 -- so it dipped, then new 5/34 xover for another 40 ticks...  fun easy /tf  If you let it swing.

/tf - takes out yesterday's highs -- that's the plan -- set off the stops....

Fat trends...  5/34 xovers paid out.

/tf wide range - takes out highs EOD

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Tues Feb 5

/tf up .48%  overnight ramp

short /tf  903 -- triple top +  5/34 xover + TL ramp break.   7t stop.  Have to take this.

/tf - 902 - quick 10t.  Nice to see something work instantly -- as it should.

Being smart is a liability.  You are not smarter than the market.  Thinking you're smarter makes you dumber.  You ARE the market.  So be the market -- be in sync with the flow -- the jellyfish.  The salmon fights the trend all day long and dies in the end.  The jellyfish just floats around and stuffs its gob with.... jelly. 

/tf - stop lowered to +1t.

still in /tf short...   by the rules.

just about stopped out -- strong premarket signals.   tech, europe, gold, financials


out /tf  +11t      now -- what I just did was cover early -- THINKING - the stop will hit so I will outsmart the market and win 2 extra ticks.   Market now turning back down - it's possible I will give up 10 or 20t to save two because I started 'thinking' instead of 'playing by set rules'.  

well -- saved 2 ticks after all.  5/34 xover  /tf --  902.1  at 9 am.

/tf  stable   902.3

WPRT - gap up over 20 day

AD - +1400

but tf dropping...

Market Signals are strong.

long /tf --  9:50  --   PUSH.

10t stop.  8t   target  HoD

OUT --    +26 for the day.


10:03 - BULL SIGNAL   

/tf 904  nhod

10:09 bear signal

preemptive SHORT -- on signal  -- take it because risk is HoD  (7t)

-5t -- and out    that was OFF PLAN -- you were trying to be smarter than the market.


out - NO XOVER -- 

down to 18t of profit.

Market Signals are strong --   why fight it?  Your timeframe is intraday.  Easy to rally hard in a downtrend for an HOUR or TWO --.  

TF  905  NHOD

ad  - TOPPED OUT  9:52.

UD - strong - -no reason to short yet.

the feeling "too high" or "too low" is a judgment call -- and a good sign you are going to make a mistake.

There is only price, patterns, and charts.

ABMD -- continuing - and HAIN -- those charts were fine.

XLF -- doing fine above 10 day MA -- trend up.

IWM - double top -- difficult area to battle trhough but  STRONG signals.

UD-- still climbing

11;06 --  Sell Signal

short  11:16 -- 2ndary  break  5/34 xover. 

Market Signals weakening

covered  for1 tick --

drop wedge break to upside....  more strength. 

RULE:  if daytrading a stock -- it must be STRONG.  I know that sounds obvious... but it's sad how often I break it.

AD +1300  no good reason to get short.

ABMD  +4%

11:38  bear signal

5/34 xover short 905.2  -- 6t stop.

break/inverse double top/ xover  pattern -- usually reliable

/tf -- today's HoD was just above yesterday spike in the morning -- before the plunge -- this was an easy target to see on 5 min ch.

/zb -- confirms  11:48

went to workout -- chop all afternoon -- great choice... missed nothing as I expected -- gained a workout.

WLL higher
ESRX higher

UD climbing ALL day
AD +1300

bulls in charge

UA, GNC -- sloppy high tail stocks -- don't play these.

PRGO -- another  -- too choppy -- don't play it.

3 pm:   still going?

internals are strong as ever...

/zb --  xover bullish

3:23 -- hmmm....

instincts say -- go long 907.8 -- catch 20 tick rip into close??? strong finish?


3:35 -  sell signal

GLF, WLL , ESRX  IACI  EDAP   --- all kinds of strength

5/34 xover but
UD -- climbing -- says we close at the highs

/tf -- clear rollover signal -- I'm not taking it because Market Signals barely support it.

TICK - -nlod

long  5t stop --  rolling with the Market Signals --

stoppped out -- THIS WAS OFF-PLAN.  It made a lot of sense but it was not following the basic plan.  These trades look so good... and so rarely work.

hain --  GIVES IT ALL UP.  ER are death.

GLUU - LOL.  Price action forecast a miss 3 days ago -- selling all day...

/tf bulls back in control

Monday, February 4, 2013

What I Need To Do

1) Be more automatic.

2) Accept price.

3) Care less (nothing) about my own opinion

4) Trust price.  Trust the process.

5) Stretch every hour or less. 

6) Relax

Mon Feb 4

gapping down.

most  euro etfs are breaking 10 day MAs -- these sharp gap downs are usually the way a major trend starts... always starts with a rush.

/tf already below Fri. lows 902

/cl  -1.15%  - test of Fri. lows coming

/es  below 1500.

most leader names red.

APKT -- buyout by ORCL.

selling GLF - on Barron's hype and ALXN -- raising cash.

NTT -- dividend payer now looks good.  Will add.

euro ETFs-- this is a huge gap down.  Big shift.
EWI gaps below 20 day. EWP down.  EWG -- still above but will test 20.

when going With the Trend, can take a straightline trend break entry.  When looking for countermove -- need the 5/34 xover full signal...  

GLF -- out 38...

10:03 --  MAJOR BEAR SIGNAL --    can't get clearer.   short  /tf
10:13: -- another BEAR SIGNAL           <----yes ---="" --="" -="" 5="" br="" day="" entry="" here="" of="" right="" the="" this="" was="">
AD  -1300

FSLR strong from below

/zb  new highs.

FTEK --  new swing up?   need to wait for close.

market signals say stay with short --   confirming.

solar best sector --  FSLR, FTEK

/tf -- broke new lows...  I covered.         why?  why would you cover here? with NO SIGNAL? with such incredibly weak readings?   why cover?

AD -1500
 UD  -100

no reason to cover  -- use stops....

puke candle - but signals confirm weakness.   10:47

/tf -- bounce to Fri. lows --   support?  or resistance now?
 looks like resist.

UV - worse
AD  -1500
/zb  new highs --

more downside -- correct to stay in short -- 

11:07 -- UV  new lows.... stay short....

market signals will guide you and the charts will give you the spots to enter.

/tf - working on a  xover but no pattern -- this is deadcat for now.

$VIX - nice regain of 20 day MA - from the bottom -- looks ready to rock.

TICK made a new HoD

/tf -  folding again --   UV  new lows -- stay short... dead cat

11:25 - new bear signal

AD -  nLoD  -1600 coming
UD - nLoD

/tf  899.6 - nLoD

new lows -- /tf

11:46 - bull signal  - TICK nhod

/tf - testing 900 again.  saw this little bounce coming.

/tf - still in DOWNTREND - stay short   no  5/34 xover   no pattern

UD - nlod  -- shorts in control easily.   No reason to play a bounce

-1700 AD

Trend Down Day --   simple.   Easy.


/tf  897 --   -1.23%   5/34 MAs never crossed -- smooth ride.

Saw this perfectly.   +4 ticks on the day instead of 75


TICK  bullish signal  YES - 20 ticks within 1/2 hour.

probably just deadcat -- no pattern   no reason to countertrade.

SIMO  already 2x vol. going into ER.  Chance of miss:  99.99%...     -4.3%  this will be a disaster... sigh.

/tf -- 5/34xover  at  12:26           yes - this is the time to cover - -there will be a chance to reenter later

UD  new lows...

all the Inverse short ETFs on my Screen Mover...   never see that like... ever.

This looks like   12:49 -- chop mode - -balancing a bit

AD  climbing
/zb falling
UD - getting worse though.
/tf -- 900  -- stable

TICK  100  / 200 bouncing range.

12:50 -  UD - huge BULL SIGNAL !!
UD - reverse - nlows -- sharp

UD nlows
AD - dropping

short /tf  5t stop
stopped --  was never a 5/34 xover plus we're in chop mode.

decided to take loss on SIMO instead of waiting -- 3x normal volume.  If it pops I'll be upset but this is sticking to plan.

still grinding back up.

TICK solid.

DECK rising again --   5%   strong.   Daily chart strong.

13:16:  bear signal  -- short /tf  -- xover
/zb - confirm  xover 5/34

/tf -  5/34 xover after triple top  1:31 --    DROP HERE?  GREAT S.S.

NOTHING HERE -- afternoon flat.

SIMO - new lows

GLUU -- even worse.

EDAP, FTEK, DECK, NTT  strong.

internals very weak --   /tf -- pennant formation --   loading up for a break.

short /tf  - break of pennant  -   3t stop - doesn't move   -- should have broken.

BIG TICK -  buy

tick  nHoD.

5/34 xover after pennant -- technically a long but Market Signals in TREND DOWN DAY  --   best do nothing here...

SIMO -5%  4x volume.  insiders know bad things?

/tf - slow grind up.

best to wait until 3 or 3:30  - these are the usual times the algos make a sustained move -- usually just chop when it happens early.

Bull signal at 2:58
/tf 901 - push.

AD -1660
doesn't promise for a strong close but   -.85% already,  Dow -100

tf 900 --   value area developing...  natural place.

DECK -- strong chart.   acting well

HAIN, ABMD - daily charts are fine and they went green.  Nothing wrong here.

/tf - one long grinding TL since Puke Candle low around noon.
AD -- nailed the low
UD - keeps sinking -- not helpful.

nice add on NTT -- holding strong.

short 899.2
/zb - b/o
/tf -- TL break
TICK drop
TICK flip  +600  trap?

stopped out --  trap?

rangebound --

Best action was morning to noon -- this is VPOC building....  no edge trading.

/tf - flip down
TICK -800 print.

Internals weak -- 898...

AD -1762 new low....     weak.
UD new low
/zb  break out

should be lower....

TEVA - green by a penny.

took 11 ticks... still finished just green /tf -- despite it all.  Hard to lose following signals.

-1000 TICK
-1800 AD

UD -- dropping all day was still a good tell   /tf would print new lows at the end.

FTEK  +4%  2x vol. ???

Easy trade was at the open after the first little short squeeze.


weak ADV-DEC
weak U-D
weak TICK most of the day

 easy trend down day - -just had to wait for the double tops, and 5/34 xovers.

Friday, February 1, 2013

Febr. 1

/cl -  long tail hits O/N high stops --  TANKS   -- /cl - takes out O/N LOWS --   roundtrip rip

note  /tf -- could NOT take out the highs of 907.40 -- why did it fall short?  Seems weak to not go all the way.

FSLR - strong

/cl -- and that's a 100t swing -- wow.

long /tf --  5/34 xover

Internals  massively bullish.

could be trap --

Fri opex - is often RANGEBOUND -- if so - this is a top.    (why was I focusing on top?  Market signals were screaming bull)

GNC --    -5%  huge vol.  stopped out.   Wtf?  no news....

stupid idea -- why short /tf   xover doesn't mean shit with internals this strong.

/tf  909 !!!!!  ism data kills it --   Internals were callingit.

GNC -6.6% --   1.8 million vol.   wtf?

daily so overbought - but NO reason to short yet.     (good observation)

SIMO - -heavy vol, like GNC, breaks 20 day A

TL --  downtrend line formed   905 - 3rd touch?

/cl  roundtrip BACK to highs

somehow -- everything is a loser today. Just can't win.

Bear Signal

/tf     inverse double bottom and TL break --  nice bear set up.
no -   -15 ticks today....                                                            (somehow - I wanted to short -- this desire to go against the crowd is pervasive and almost always wrong)

The signals are the signals.   You either accept them or don't.

ud - super strong
AD - strong
TICK - solid

grind up  -- euro close in 7

simo -6%
gnc -7%
gluu  -11%

sad sad.

/tf  909.2 --  Signals confirm it all    AD  +1700

ESRX - over 20 day --  break  - strong

/tf  911

UV -- keeps climbing...    BUBBLE market rules.   You Don't FADE bubbles.

/zb also confirming.

UV  rising all day but

ADv-Dec was better at calling top of day /tf

15:30 -- bull signal --  TL break -- good for nearly 30 tick rip  to new highs  /tf  912  long tail.

ALXN  closing strong

(good for getting long around 15:34 -- the 5/34 xover -- I took it papermoney for 16 ticks and finished flat -- wisely sensing a top at 912 on the long tail.  Almost a perfect trade.  Was willing to get long an "overbought" market cuz that's the signal.)

/tf -- Market Signals were very strong - just needed to wait for a pullback and push and 5/34 xover -- and set a tight stop.  It came just before 11 and was an easy rip.  All futures trades should be instantly profitable if done correctly.

/tf Another face-ripper Friday