Tuesday, June 21, 2011

triple sets:

some triple touches work, some don't.

 You won't know until

a) they touch
b) you connect with market action.   GDX failed a few days ago - but its plunge to the bottom corresponded exactly with a plunge in the indices.  When the indices bounced, GDX bottomed as well and went on to make a huge move 3 days later.  (GDX outperformed on the big rally day.)

These set ups often take time to form and time to push out and extend.  I need to take more positions and hold... as long as the market is doing okay -- hold on.  And wait for the touches.  The best entries are markets that are holding up well during corrective times.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

trend trade? no

GDX formed triple bottom at support - entered on upside break which failed, hit new lows...

GDX was down 2% at the time so trend was down , market was weak.  This was a contrarian play instead of an actual, bull flag or 'rest' to a new level.

 Market still weak...

 continuation patterns - easier to go with the flow.  TZA broke pullback and ran 1.40 in an hour.

1) identify 10 day trend, wait for pb, trade in direction of major trend.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

gap up bounce

very strong bonce...   IWM , QQQs break thru top of channels   (key sign to avoid shorting today)

I shorted anyway - small loss.

AAPL and many others gapped up big to top of clear channels...  GDX.

IWM - magnet to top of 5 day range.

Clear sign:  99% IBD names green...  huge 11:1 up/down NYSE vol.   Squeeze day. 

IWM is climbing despite negative MACD signals. 

 -- set up was to buy  o/n  -- many stocks hit highs by 11 --  window of movement is very brief.  Now it's likely all churn until next stretched conditions.  

watchlist 100% green -- covering day... low vol. riser day...  lot of junk up big.

channels broken... oversold conditions gone now.

had SLV pegged -- dumped it instead of holding on for .60 gain... need to be patient with winners. 

Monday, June 13, 2011

today's easy trade:

IWM starting sinking but bottomed out right where it touched an extended trend line... then bounced for easy move. 

Or, entry on MACD cross and vol. would have gotten in .50 higher. 

Signals were very clear -- no reason to be early.   

QQQs touched 200 day MA and that was near the time bounce started.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Fri: Market Profile

terrible internals...

the game is skewed with downside risk...    bases form but break easily

-1100 TICK readings confirm sellers want out.

strong stocks are:  FDO, OPWV, YHOO (flatish), TSLA, LGF, UNG.  

to be CP -- must maintain the same focus on each trade...  first determining a Market Profile to determine probability. 

MACD very good indicator


need to wait until setup is crystal clear.     Early entries are losers -- always...

Need to develop market profile to determine how far to let it ride.  And then let it ride.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

stop rule:

no need to ever risk more than $150  or under $200 with commissions/slippage

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

value traps: