Monday, March 25, 2013

Mar 25

/gc -- nailed the bottom at clear support -- had a trade for 17tick stop for 40 tick gain -- would have worked fine.

/cl -- jumpy -- up 1%

vix -7.8%

AD 1200 -- almost impossible to short.

BTU, FDX, EBAY red -- avoid.

great future trades will always feel extremely uncomfortable on entry.

/ym - nlod  -- breaking

AD flat
AD red

AD -677

full reversal

AD -600

- /tf  tested Fri lows -- sharp bounce....  in

chop land.   no trade here.

NOV - green, call buyers.

/tf -- unchanged at close.    944

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Mar 21

pullback day

/ym -- through yesterday low, PUke candle -- 30tick swing - best trade of the day in retrospect.

AWAY -   fresh high b/o
IMOS -- strong.

XHB worst sector

GG and gld -- almost breaking out  - strong
GDX above 20 day

/ym 14383 -- that was a 50% retrace intraday   -- 50 tick move -- in 100 tick range.

The correct action was to wait for yesterday low's to touch -- then recognize Puke Candle was stop orders -- take a responsive entry with stop at lows -- then you trail the stop up slowly -- as internals improve - you target the opening print -- and exit.   and the day is OVER at 11:40 for 60 t, no heat.

That was the play.  It happens all the time.

/tf and /es did not sink as low -- so recognize which market is at a key support area.

IYT  below 20 day MA daily --   new lows

AD -800
UD -145

Monday, March 18, 2013

Mar 18

deep gap on Cyprus news.

Big jump around 3 am --  euro open -- partial gap fill.

/tf 937  -- from 951 fri high.
/ym 130 pt. range  -- nearly 90t bounce off o/n lows.

slow grind back up

/tf touches 941

/gc - new high 1607

AD  -1800
UD  -46


VIX 19%  !!!

coal, nat gas really strong.   BTU, REXX green.

/tf -- weakest - risk off clear.

/ym -- holding up -.3%

AD -- -1070
UD - not improving -70
/zb - flat

short /ym 14405 -- 11t stop.   into VPOC.

IDT -- div payer - at 52 wk high.

stoppped /ym --   dumb
/zb -- no dTL break.

no pattern.

11 am - /tf  TRIPLE TOP 944 =  great short entry

/zb  BREAKS  DTL intraday.

AD -960
UD -83
/zb TL break
VIX  14.6% 

how far can the gap close with these Signals?

IWM -- gravestone 5 min.  candle. 11:32.   euro close. 

significant time here -- for possible shift.

AD -750
UD -84
vix  14%
/zb  .75%

/tf - tests Fri lows -- sup. now resistance?   Or just keep ripping? 

/tf  rising as internals get worse...

 Got too bearish in my thinking --  grind up is relentless.  Just stick with TL formations with 5 min. candles -- don't fight them til they break.

/ym nhod
/tf nhod

/es  1550  -
/ym - GREEN?  lol.

Cyprus fears are b.s.  -- duh -- trade price, not news.   Always.

/zb  plummeting  new lows

XHB - n 52w h.

amzn, pcln --   BROKEN with LULU --

Leadership shifting.  

nat gas, xhb names leading. 

2:15  BIG SELL SIGNAL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

short  /tf -- top of dTL -- 8t stop.  basic entry -- Market Signals Bearish. 

AD -600
UD nlod

market won't drop though...

IBD names strongish
VIX 13%
/zb near lows...

mixed up.

/zb  nlod  -  grind up

/tf  breaks  dTL -- push....  2:15

/ym NHoD  - boom

got  short /tf -- on double top -- with no signal - just responsive entry -- and nailed it.

coverd for 13t.

up 12 on the day.   blah.

should not have covered -- just cuz "it's taking too long" is noise.  Not a reason to do anything.

AD -520
UD -94
vix 12%
zb up

IBD names strongish
all sectors red.

basically - you can't just buy 'whatever.  LULU, amzn, goog -- to pricey is getting hurt.

VPOC  945 area -- nothing to do here - it's value.    support.

AD -700 --  /tf falls back  after double top.

Had it for 40 ticks -- have to hold - you never know when your winner will pay for all your losers.

UD - dumping -191

AD -844

rainbow day....  saw it. -- just had to keep with 5 min TL.....  never would have been stopped out.

/tf  breaks  5min dTL -- 3:51

rexx, ctgx idt, aapl, lxk, kcap, btu, snts -- all green ... nice.

/tf -- rips  AH -- breaking the TL -- but I'd would have already been out.

So today's market was:

/tf  gapped down on Cyprus news overnight Trend Down until 3 am - euro open then pop -- a base was built...

9:30 open was another pop and /tf climbed to gap fill... p/b  -- double top then give back most of the day session.

/ym -- similar climb to gap fill -- slight green... double top - then again -- the pullback that provided that big gain of the day.

The market continues here now -- once again breaking the dTL and climbing almost back to highs.

Market Signals were red ALL DAY so it was right to be patient and wait for a resistance -- and once again the classic double top presented itself at clear resistance -- the gap fill area.

So today was not really difficult despite the gap down which made things seem 'tricky' - but there's never anything tricky about support / resistance areas -- they form and you just wait for them to touch and then get a great  R:R entry.

Friday, March 15, 2013

March 15

Most important idea I've had in years I think is this:

The key to success in trading is -- your system must eliminate noise at your timeframe.

The confusion and fear of beginners may be due to many reasons, but very common is the fact that they are unsure when to enter or exit because there are too many signals.

It's rare to just sit there and have no compulsion to get in or out.

So what I'm doing in the past few days is -- I keep going to hourly candles -- so the charts get really smooth and suddenly -- seeing the bigger structures.  And sometimes you see that there is really no structure or clear TL so you wait -- and it develops...  or you focus on a different market where the TL is really clear and you can see clearly where a good location is to enter.

The first thing you want to do when trading is eliminate noise.  And then, when you enter, your stop is clear -- and you don't worry about a trade going against you because you are not focusing on the 1 min. candles -- price should chop around in a known range... there's no reason to exit prematurely until a signal emanates because it broke through a larger support area defined on larger timeframe. 

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Mar 14

Obvious patterns break - for obvious reasons.

You make the most money betting responsively - anticipating a pattern or area.

nat gas names

apc, swn - new highs

UNG - burning up

UPL, XCO --  entire sector huge.

AD 822
UD  50

Trend UP.

/6e--  hit the target -- 40 ticks but exited too early...

/es hit top of obvious channel and traders are shorting or won't get long until it slides down in time or price correction.


keep it simple.

/zb green
/ym - double top
/tf double top

SNTS, MX, REXX, EDAP, SWN  --   winners.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Mar 12.

premarket weak.

/gc  has a 100 tick explosion to nearly 1600 at 7 am
/si even stronger.

Something shifted here.   GDX best etf premarket.

/zb strong .33%

/gc -- break out

AG - break above 10,20 ma...

paper short /ym - too early -- OFF PATTERN.   Follow the rules.

/tf red--  perfect resistance at ystdy  high --
ad -200
ud fading
Vix green
zb green

vix 3%

ad  -380
/zb  nhod

ud - negative

AD -700
/tf - touch o/n low

vix 5.4%

all signs -- bears winning.

AD -720
/tf test lows

/tf hit high of day with  AD  near zero -- great opp. to responsively enter the TRIPLE TOP.

Internals Matter.  
Picking bottoms today may result in stinky finger.

-800 ad

Trend DOWN Day???


long /tf - at ystdy lows -15t stop  - for volatility --  looking for 20t bounce.

short /ym  on 5 min TL break.
Trend Down day signals -- ON system.

Also a triple touch.

short /tf -- break of formation wedge.   8t stop.
short  /tf - again
AD -700
UD near lod
/zb  breaking higher

UD nlod

short /tf - last time  TL break.

Ad -750
UD -76
VIX 8.2%
/zb up strong

Trend is Down -- and bears in charge.

AD -860
UD -97

took about 13 ticks /tf -- regular TL break --

very bearish internals to just hope we bounce because we been up 6 days in a row. 

everyone a dip buyer...

so all buyers here are WEAK.

Don't follow the crowd -- smells like failure today for the markets.

internals worse 2:42


can't force a bad trade.

internals turn coming into 3 - still weak. 

/tf  /ym -- /es -- closing at VPOCish area.  -- range test - and middle close.  bloop.

Monday, March 11, 2013

Mon 11 notes.

Conquer Fear.

red premarket?   

most indices up 6 - 8 days in a ROW.    Wow -- we can actually trade down?

/zb green
NBG -10%   -- forgot about this one. 

/gc little green.

AG -- 5% buyback.   Good fundies.  Run to 50 day MA is 2 pts.    Nice R:R.

Gld bottomy -- but still weak. 

/YM  +.01%  can't stop the rain.  

despite only 5 tickers green  premarket -- carries a lot of weight I guess.

AD -700
zb green
UD  -15

internals weakening -- have to stay with it.

short /ym

AD  -540

/ym - covered  4 ticks

VIX -2.4%  
leaders mostly leading... mixed up here.

AD -560
UD -15
/zb green
/ym green?????  wtf   man

AD -600
UD -16

ad -500
UD -8

fast turn. 

UD  turns positive.  10:47

UD improving

short /ym -- last time  11 t stop.

UD back to negative --

/ym TOP of Range.

AD -400

/tf -- weaker than /ym - this is the market to short.

/ym -- the top was quite obvious on 15 min. chart -- everything I did today was ridiculous.

AD  -179

utx, ba-  nhod  leading /ym
/zb -- breaking down.

Poor trading -- not following trade.    Either the B/O -- going WITH the 15 min. Trend -- for 40 ticks... or wait until top of Large Resistance at 14.340 with 12t stop.

UD  +15
AD -159

UD  nhod

UD +30
AD -50

/ym - and break to nhigh -- daily chart.

and it hits RIGHT around NOON.

GRIND UP continues  7th day.

AD -19
UD 52  nhod

/ym nhod

AD  24

/tf 938
/es close to 1550
VIX -- 2007 low broken.

VIX -7%   blam.

vix -6.8%

3 pm - big TICK drop --

triple top /ym... is it enough?

AAPL -- big jump  --  never f--k with AAPL when it rampages.

AD 55 -- weak
UD 73  decent.

/zb slight red.

UD nhod  -- not shorting this.


close at highs -- rip.

AD 200
UD -- nhod  blast.

Friday, March 8, 2013


/zb down

Trend Up.

Grind up.

Know the Markets.

Don't trade noise.

bought GLD on the slam 151.18

/tf 939 on data

/gc  slammed to 1560.

massive bubble day.  gap up.

FXY -- yen bottomless pit.

Market Signals
AD  500
UD 20
/zb red

Grind Up Signals.

internals still solid - improving.

Grind higher.

AD 861
UD nhod
/tf  937 -- target hit on bounce.

$VIX - green.

AD 1600 to 400

fading to support  TL....  829.50 target....

AD  600 -- target hit at 937  fading again.

AD 820
/tf 837

IBD -- all green
VIX -3%


UD nhod
/cl -  ripping nhod
/tf - at opening print.   +.57%
vix  -3%

ad  900
ud nhod.

/tf 938  grind

AD 1000
ud nhod

/tf 938
/es - 1545


must be willing to hold winners longer. 
must hold on.

Signals will keep you focused.  Stops trail up.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Tues: Mar 5

/es touches new high over 1530  o/n session

/tf hi

/es   hovering near 1530

/tf 921
/ym 14170

CREE up huge on new product.

Everyone's a winner.  Follow the charts to heaven.

forget the news and hype.  The plan is the plan every day.  Doesn't change because "everyone is bullish".

guessing we start AD near 700 - 1000. 

AD +1400!

AD 1700

AD 1674 - stable 
UD 93


every stock on list is green today....   LOOOOOOOVE

Bulls don't just rule - domination.  Beyond domination.

This is a day to be a pig.

long consolidation O/N -- correct play was simple buy breakout /ym (or /es or /tf)and set 10t stop -- huge R:R with strong premarket action.  

11 am:  pullback beginning -- but in a Trend Day.

UD - nhod.
/es - first p/b - and touches nhod.

1:53 - low TICK  nlod.

IGT -- pushing to new highs -- caught it with call buying action.

/zb breaks DT.

UD  nhod
but  AD  new lows...  tired up here.

/tf 925  building value.

AD 1430 - nlod.

-600 TICK.

AD  nlod
TICK -600+

/ym topped out 10:50 am...

/tf - saw it clearly - didn't act on it.

Monday, March 4, 2013

Mon Mar. 4

futures down premarket.

/ym 14031

/tf 911

ym - ramp back 14047

indices -- all touch O/N highs -- perfect resistance and fail.

Market Signals  very bearish...   /tf 912 - holding strong tho.

vix up.

/zb - red.
xhb, xlf green.

AD -290
UD negative

shorts covering?  need power to go higher.


 covered tza at TL.   for a 12 ticks.

chop back to top of range
IYT raging -- a good tell.
VIX still green tho.

XLU strong - - sort of bearish.

euro close coming...      hard to figure this chop out...  midrange.

/ym - -top of range.
euro close pop.    thought so...

/zb new lows
vix red now....

short /ym - after takes out highs -- 5 min long tail.  Internals still red.

AD -360

/tf  tanks   12:20 -- fast drop to support 908 --  FAST! drop -- surprise move.

AD  -700
/zb -- was down -- never provided any indicator.   All you had was the negative AD.

/tf - took out stops below 908 -- now chop/grind.

Extremistan day -- 60 ticks in 20 min....    now grind.

/tf -- back to 911 --     tested top/bottom - stophunt -- return to value.  Simple day really.

TICK 1000 - -nhod.
1:22 blam.

must allow entry to ride.... this has to change.  Must change behavior to change results.

try another /ym short.

XLU leading
VIX -   -3.8% bullish... hmmm
AD -270
/zb red.

IYT - double top to the tick - right here.  2:38pm.

AD green
/tf 915  bang
/ym  ripping

VIX -6.3%
/zb nlod.

was short /tf and /ym  paper -- managed to get stopped out TO THE TICK ON BOTH AT HIGH OF THTE DAY.   ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE. And yet I managed it.


/tf  - close at highs  916.40

IBD leaders led.
VIX -8.3%
another dip early -- and push.

/ym - rip to nhod  AH - all shorts lose.

Friday, March 1, 2013

Fri Mar. 1

clean trend down o/n session.

/es 1505 -- yesterday was a classic reversal. 

/6e  1.30  -- break.

seeing all signs of a selloff but now starting session deep in the hole -- may be choppy zipper/grind back --

gold, copper, oil weak.  
banks weak
100% correlation today....

use hourly charts -- lots of room to fall -- the upper bands were established but hard to figure out where indices may bottom.

/tf - these little pops are noise. 

Don't trade noise.  and most of it is noise.

Need to trade larger patterns because large players dominate and the turns can only come after sizeable accumulation or distribution.

JJC -- been a good divergent tell.

ad -1400
/tf  899

/tf - most perfect technical bounce into the 5 min. TL -- and whoosh -- easiest 30 ticks ever.  

we're in chopmode here

/tf -- 100 tick range  897 to 907... thru TL.  taking out stops.

AD, UD, /zb, VIX -- all bearish. 
but /tf  -.35% -   can't short in the hole.

/es  GREEN

short  /ES   stop 1550.50

last time
short /tf -- thru  O/N high -- and 910.  

5 min reversal bar - /tf

small triple touch - flag  /tf   1:42.

AAPL  --  new lows for the year....

AD  flat....   but /tf up strong... hmmm...

ad -100
UD negative....

makes no sense to be up.

zb green
vix green.

how are markets green?

2:25 -- market topped at 2:30 yesterday.    Could it repeat?  Is it that obvious?

2:30 - no selloff...  
/tf -- TL broken...    2:40

Adn /tf - breaks to upside....   PUSH.  knew it.

can't use tight stops -- noise will get you every time.

/tf  912

ad flat.

opex days...  

IGT looks good
THRX - call buyers from the bottom -- closing strong.
ESRX continues

indices all up trend -- daily charts -- no weaknesses.

Big Dick $tick  3:40  sending it...

/tf - yesterday highs TO THE TICK

Well -- that was something.....

180 tick range -- bottom to top.   Every day is an opportunity.   You just got to have a system to get some.