Wednesday, July 31, 2013

July 31 chart

was clear bulls at strength at the open -- TL developed and entry on the line yields a nice move of over 50 ticks -- just through first line of resistance -- the high from 2 days ago -- wicks through and dies.

/tf retraces slowly - -all the way to 3 am o/n lows -- as  adv-decrld drops - but never goes below zero - so bulls probably still in charge...

ramp through the Fed -- and suddenly rage on high tick....   dies just as suddenly at 3 pm and drops -- yep, all the way back to 3 am o/n low AGAIN -- providing another 24 ticks.

qcor, mx, aegr, yy, soda, regi, peri, grmn major winners.

/tf last day of month, FOMC games

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

goal tomorrow:

I want to see a TL develop clearly -- the third touch on a 15min. chart and then view it via 10tick range chart and enter on the third touch on this smaller time frame.  I want to see the Market Signals trending in the direction of the trade.

Then I want to hold it with a trailing stop either to a known support/res. area or else get stopped for a gain.

I also want to ONLY take this trade and do nothing else that gives back profit. 

This kind of trade sets up at least once a day.  I want to take it consistently and then focus on stock research.

7/30 Tues.

/tf .23%  at 7:19

/nq - above ystdy  hod.   .37

FB, TSLA, strong

/tf 1042.8 - pop

AAPL now in uptrend as well

GLW - 3.25  on ER.

ferts down HUGE on some kind of news...

MOS - pushes below 2010 lows.  Entry there good for 1.60


advrld  1200  --    665 -- trending down   10 min OR - break to downside...

5/34 xover now --    long      on 3rd touch TL..  market signals strong / support

/nq -- BREAKOUT __ _

/tf - struggling insider 10 min OR --

/tf - triple top formed -- took off  long --    +6t.

/nq - double top 5 min candles...   10:55 ?

/tf -- triple top -- and breaks below 10 min OR -

5/34 xover

shorted /nq on the double top.

internals confirming - hold short.

free trade /nq - stop in place

tough day here -- no trend...

bulls mostly in charge

long /tf -- on 3rd touch of bounce -- at the TL -- only have to risk about 6t

/nq --  NEW HIGHS....

/tf  will it follow off this turn?

 clear TL --  5min chart caught it -- think this is easier than 10tick range chart -- too much noise.

Need to see the clear sup/res areas --

market is in a downtrend so the TL is clear -- it's not clear how low we will go each day....

gonna need 1 hour -- here because not at a clear support area...

/tf  breaks

this was all clear -- the descending TL  on the 15 min chart -- touched in the morning...

/nq -- was stronger but now breaking too.

/tf -- bad long -- was NOT at clear support -- took a triple touch before 50 min.  

/tf  back to 1040 --  yesterday close --   dead money flat.

long /tf -- triple touch -- 1 hour from low... 

market signals bouncing.

advrld  flat -- 

/tf  near unch.

flat is flat. 

wow -- triple touches --  10t range chart makes it easier to see.

two triple touch set ups ... trade the edges...

Monday, July 29, 2013

July 29 Mon.

/tf -.24

weak start.

up: fb, ddd, fslr, irbt

weak: CYOU, SOHU --  HTZ, sbux, aig,

/tf - wedge at 9:25

Fri  low 40t away.

9:44 -- gap fill  fri. close touch.

adrl -247 tho.

5/34 xover -- drop below 10 min OR -- and smooth sailing for major trend down

Market Signals were giving it away.

High of day was simply a gap fill just past Fri close.    classic double top.

ad  -1400 - -major instit. selling.   No need to fight it intraday until patterns develop.

11:35 - euro closed.

3rd touch on 10tick chart -- was  just 3 minutes after low of day touched /tf -- then 30tick bounce.

/tf-- retrace 50% of today's top to bottom -- dropped to 2nd support (Thurs low) -- tl break, triple touch  - and slow roller to 50% fib.

short /tf   triple top  + TL break +  ad -752 and trending lower.  <--- -="" good="" p="" this="" was="" yep="">
We're under 10 min OR -- with weak internals -- have to follow trend.

3rd touch after major support/resistance areas -- pay big today.

+put in Fib retrace lines after 1% move or more...    captures the bounce.

Once again -- afternoon provided virtually nothing to work with - the key times for futures are the opening -- and the intial move by longs which was clearly wrong -- allowing for an easy entry -- but then the hard part -- holding the trend  until major support is hit.

/tf: weak internals - have to find a way to get short today

Friday, July 26, 2013

Fri July 26 chart

3rd touch is the charm... as long as you know the context.

July 26


Often /cl is the best market to play.

And once again -- triple touch -- 3rd touch was 50 min. from the low.   and a 50 tick move -- day is over in 10 min.   at 9:05.  That's what's possible.

long /tf -- 50 min from low of day -- 3rd touch of established TL.

advrld -1300       9t stop.

I had established rules though.   -800+    NO LONGS at all.  So this is breaking my own rules.

5 is under 34 ma too.  So 2 broken rules.   Unlikely to be CP doing this. 

5/34 xover.  9:55

advrld -1250 -- rule is:  DON"T  GO LONG --

and /tf now breaks o/n LOWS --  heavy - sellers in control. Your job is to trend trade.

bot ACT, OCN --     strong today.  

5 under 34
advrld  -1300

trend is down.  end of story.

-1400  advrld --   massive exodus today. 

/nq-- outperform  .25%

/tf  still -.6%  --- huge difference.

amzn, yy, sbux, trip, tsla, akam --

bot ACT< OCN

/tf -- bounce to top of 10 min OR --  

advrld  -974 but way off opening lows -- this is not critical.  what's important is DIRECTION.

switching to 10tick -- candles rather than 5 min.

Basic idea:   Once you have trend in place  5 over 34 -- uptrend -- enter on a 3rd touch TL -- it could be below the 34 ma - doesn't matter.

the MAs are not enter/exit -- just trend signals to keep you focused on direction.  The entry is the developing TL which is dynamic.

The market signals + leadership list also keep you informed on trend power.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

thurs July 25

Need to add in moving avgs. to create more structure for futures trading.

Trying to countertrend trade is not consistent or profitable.

/es  -.65 premarket -- correction continues.

/cl down  .71  - forming double bottom on hourly.

/tf - triple bottom  in the early am -- for 20t bounce.    Nice set up.

7:10 - /tf  5/34 xover
 /nq -- took out yesterday lows...   bounced 16 points - all before 7:20am.

/nq -- COAST TO COAST - took out yesterday's lows by a point -- regains entire move -- 23 point swing back to o/n high.

never looked back from 5/34 xover.

long  /tf -- on double bottom   5/34 -- xover to upside.

/tf  looks toppy but hasnt been 50 min. 
now advrld popping -- challening hod.  could take out early shorts.

triple bottom in p/m  - then triple top an hour after high -- and you could be done and in the sun.

still managed to grab 33 ticks with very poor trading -- using the 5/34 as guide.

5 over 34 ma all day....    trend up

advrld 910  at 3:48 -- no shorting.

trend up as advrld  pushes over 1000 -- simple rules -- no shorting over 800 no matter what.

Using 5/34 mas helps clearly see the intraday trend.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

July 24

first rule of futures trading:

You have to NOT take all the millions of 'almost' patterns that suck your profits away until you actually enter a proper pattern  -- or rather, don't, because you've lost all confidence.

1047 -- clear pattern on TL Break + double bottom  11t. stop.   Clear as day at 11:10.

ad  -1300   trend down day -- major.

Have to listen to the power of the signals... 

very strong --   no way it could stay up.

bounce got to 25 min OR low - and acted as resistance once again.

ad  -1650  -- 3:40 --    harsh.

probably more --

close near lows.

FB, BIDU strong ah.  

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

July 23 tues.

/tf  .11%  o/n

/cl continues to drop 105.8

NFLX -4%   er

FIRE -  29% premium b/o -- helping FTNT

/tf  near 1058 would be top of 1 hour channel.

starting the day in the middle....

advrld - fading down   486+

wedge forming  /tf

/tf - dives --  pushing to the 15 min  channel.   1051...

10:12 - was a signal break to get long on next  p/b -- (TL break + small double bottom)

/tf :  So with HOURLY channel now broken...   

DOWNTREND HAS STARTED?  May be back test -- but now shorting tops ?   Major break today.

actually should have been an easy day.

Start with looking for a clear TL on 5 min. candles -- 3rd touch at 9:40 -- and you got the swing selloff until a triple bottom indicates covering -- and midday chop.

Day should be over for fut. traders.

and /tf -- triple bottom and slow climb back to UNCH.  --  38 tick swing.

pays to be patient.  

ad flat -- pointless here... opportunity came and went.

Monday, July 22, 2013

July 22: Mon.

/tf -- push on Sun. night but back to  unch.  at 8 am.

3 touch and a quick 20t swoop.

/gc over 1300 - on big big push.
GDX  4%

DDD, NFLX, tsla, irbt, scty amzn goog green.

DB 1.4%

/cl -- 3rd touch of channel - and nearly 85t dive. 

adrld  -- flat

rangebound rules --

double tops/bottoms  only --      extreme patience.

TL -- triple touch  /es    at 11:28 --   euro close....

and up we go --  /es breaks it.

/tf - touches bottom of 1 hour TL -- big swing -- touches top of 1 hour TL -- backs off 10t.

ad  470.  Still trending up.

12:49 -- 1 hour from hod..   TL break + small double top - and perfect entry.

 advrl  400+

drop back to Fri. close --   1 min TL break...  20t small ball entry.

The responsive TL entry:

And the intraday day, a long off the TL break with signals confirm.  And later.

TL break -- wait 1 hour for backtest and short back to the Fri. close.

All 3 trade types:

1) responsive entry off larger timeframe channels
2) small ball 1 min TL -- with confirming signals.
3) TL break + backtest after extended move and 50 min. past high touch.

Friday, July 19, 2013

July 19 Fri

opex - Friday.

/tf - weak close ystdy -

8am -- bounce back to Thurs. close.

/es a bit higher.

Japan down, msft, goog down big -- so some expecting weakness?  It didn't matter yesterday.

Staying with 5 min candles.

/cl - manages to push through new highs pm.

/cl  - TL break + small double top.   Short?

would have to expect small ball -- rangebound rules -- entering double tops/bottoms only.  No trend.

no - can't short unless an hour has passed, THEN TL break + test.
Or  3 touches to establish a TL

/cl continues  .62%

/cl  b/o at 5:45 am - could be out for $1000 per contract -- call it a day.

/tf -- triple top -- 3rd touch exactly 1 hour out from hod.  -- and easy trend down.

Goog - -3%
amzn -1%
red: xhb, spy, jnk, jjg, kre

/cl -- 108.81 -- pushing hard.   

12 ticks -- /tf --  down to TL support --  after triple touch.

premarket action:
red:  goog, yhoo, gs, tsla, scty, lnkd, amzn, nflx

double top 1047.5 -- short /tf?  rangebound?   10t stop

small triple top  wedge -- 10:51

advrl  -193

/tf -- CLEAR     TL break + small double top - short -- this is the pattern.

12:30 pm.

/tf - breaks past  to double top 1049 -- RANGEBOUND ACTION -- have to follow rangebound rules

opex fri - afternoon -- once again, a waste of time --  day was over at 11:10 off 3rd touch 9:50

Just needed 80 minutes today.

Enter the 3rd touch.

/tf: 3rd time is the charm

Thursday, July 18, 2013

July 18:

One of my top patterns, assuming the Market signals are confirming is simply a TL break on the 5 min candles and then a small double top/double bottom

Here's the short in /tf

There was also a simply TL breakout premarket that caught the entire upside -- always worth taking since the risk was around 8t max.

/tf: runs in the morning - sets up short in afternoon
Here's a long off /nq -- using same TL break + backtest on the same day.

Simple pattern, easy to manage risk.   Use know sup/res. as targets or just trail.  Never have to risk more than 9t max.

Monday, July 15, 2013

July 15 - Mon

Trend day again

QQQ up 14 days in a row.

Raining money. Really as simple as it gets. 

Triple touch entries pay gold.

/tf Trend Day mean simply buying triple support and wedge breaks

Friday, July 12, 2013

bad day

Well, I had a terrible day with the futures...

I had pretty much one correct entry all day -- which I lost on anyway because my stop was too tight and that was because I entered a bit too early.

This is a simple game but it's not easy.  It requires total discipline and attention.  I started getting frustrated, I knew I was frustrated, and took two more bad trades anyway.

 Meanwhile the IBD stocks are mostly doing great.

I basically should be doing the same thing every day but I seem to be making small adjustments to my rules every single day which means I'm having to think and make decisions rather than simply observe and act on patterns I know have good probability.

My losses were contained but that's not the point.  It was still awful.

And it's worse that I was leaning bearish /tf at the close and finally gave up before the easy -- ridiculous 40tick give back.  One trade could have wiped out the entire day of losses but I wasn't in for that one.

What did I learn?

1) the patterns with the market signals will work.  I have to trust them more.
2) Can't go off and trade /nq or take other pattern entries that are not clear as day.
3) Must accept the process will have bad days.
4) Analyze them, learn from them, then move on.

Anyway.  I'm relaxing this weekend and plan to come back Monday and start over again.

July 12, 2013

Friday.  opex.

futures flat o/n.

/cl - went vertical -- may do 50% retrace of past 2 days.

/tf had a signal -- b/o / small backtest for about 15 ticks.

premarket usually not a good time to enter.

/gc falling back down.

JPM, WFC reports -- strong.

PPI data 8:30

PPI data - problematic.  market initially dips

UPS -- warning.  -3%

9:41 -- market signals drop  --  and TL break -- short entry /tf   8t stop.

Have to be automatic.

bad entry -- pattern was too small --   5 min chart showed it was actually b/o + backtest.

strong IBD names = buyers control.


10:45  high of day -- need time

TL break + small backtest -- and there's 20 ticks to  top of 25 OR --  

and TL break up but no signal confirmation - so it's a no signal.

missed this trade because you were DECIDING instead of acting automatically to the plan.

/tf - double bottom but ad trending down -- no longs.

/nq -- triple top TL -- weaker than /tf -- and there it drops to a clear  TL below - 4pts - no heat.

must be willing to switch markets... short the weaker one.

and midrange --   ad -113

3 good entries today -- missed them all but took a bad one for -7.

/nq had TL break +Backtest but ADVN-DECN trending down -- no signal.

1:59  -- TL break +small backtest  long 1032.7   8t stop -- have to be automatic.

AD -35 but trending up.
VOLrd  trending up

stopped out -- frustrating.  shit.   And I was correct... just had the stop too tight....  .... damn.

IYT, JNK, JJG, eem, xhb red -- /nq jumps to highs -- pushing so hard....

I feel this is a fake -- should get short.   Can't do it because no signal, pattern to doso.

triple top short...   rangebound market  -- this is the proper thing to do.

adrld  at zero.

iyt, xhb red.   eem iyr, jnk red.   It's not a trend day for sure.


0 for 3....     pathetic.

short  /nq -- symmetrical double top to the tick .   Rangebound market means responsive trading should pay.

incredibly awful day.

and no reason for it. 

past 3 days - -jump in morning.... consolidate til afternoon base forms, ramp to close.

complete hoser close -- ramp and then all taken back AH.

OPEX -- almost always rangebound so   triple touch entries on Fri. are best.

Be Automatic

someone posted a quote on twitter that I should have copied.

Essentially:  If you have to make decisions during the trading day -- you're never going to make it.

Look: there's too much happening.  We can't pay attention to everything.  Humans have limited capacity -- so we end up being blind to lots of information.  This is why pilots can sometimes fly into a mountain -- they're focused on the controls, and whatever and just become blind to some really obvious signals.

The trading plan and the patterns that we use to trigger entries/exits need to be as automated as possible.  If we have to think whether this particular signals is good or not... we're going to end up missing it altogether or getting frustrated and taking off-plan trades.

Be automatic and accept that small losses are PART of the plan, not a failure.

We want to make trading as automatic as possible by developing good habits.  Nobody thinks about their habits when they're doing them, good or bad.

If you're overthinking, it may mean the plan is not as clear as it needs to be -- so work it out.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

July 11

Bernank lights up the world.

/tf 1030.8  o/n high

now 1029.7 at 8:05

gold up huge
/cl   over 107 o/n -- now RED -- just under ystdy close.

EWZ  3.9%
GDX 4.5%
gold 2.4
EEM 3.76%

TSLA, amzn, yhoo, aig, scty, gmcr ....

It's a bubble and ben loves it.

/es  1.05%   to 1665 - +17 o/n

so, how do we have a Trend day when the market already trended up o/n?  May not be so obvious.

underperformers like  EWZ, GDX, FXI -- strongest names.

watch the vol. on b/os after 3 touch bases.

/gc -- breaks TL -- for 50 ticks easy.

tf 1028

big gap open...

more double bottom entries -- /tf   / gc -- all good.

adrl: 1321 --- pullback to double bottom  o/n lows -- 30 tick bounce -- should have trie dthat with 10t stop.

tf - pop at 10:30 but ADVrl trending down still... and it's middle of o/n range -- no go.

adrld - keeping you off the long -- sliding 1074

rangebound action.

/cl - is trending -- so you can enter b/o wedge.

/tf is still in the 25m  OR -- so rangebound.

tried db long --

signals trending down with no confirmation -- and stopped, obviously....

puke candle takes out lows on triple bottom.


price action WITH market signals = a trade  --
must be the two together or you wait.

THEN you have to take it.  Can't hesitate.

Some common patterns today -- triple top as the AD trend down -- trying to fill a gap.

Then strength returns --- TL break + back tests get you in just as the trend starts.

Again - main thing here - is -- you have to wait for the best patterns.

There is the triple touch trendline -- with Market Signals trending down.
There is a b/o with small backtest (for extra confirmation) -- with strong Market Signals trending up.

And there is the responsive double top/bottom -- usually at key areas (o/n highs/lows) when the Market Signals are middling.

That's it.  The stops are never more than 9ticks -- all the entries work right away or you are wrong. So the winners will pay for at least 2 losers every time.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

July 10. Wed

FOMC at 2 pm -- so  get an early lunch.

europe weak o/n

China up  on extremely weak trade data.

/cl almost 105....

huge IBD names pushing yesterday.


PERI gapping up after heavy vol. yesterday.

a lot of weak stuff jumped ystdy -- xhb, cat, de --  cf, mos... are these buys?  Easy to get sucked into buying strong moves off weak charts.    don't.

$namo - 45   again... not much room for error -- in a squeeze.

symmetrical triple touches -- these nearly always form before a clear trend... could be same direction or could be a reversal.  Depends on context but this is the main entry that provides an edge.

11:28 --  double bottom with 5 am low -- rangebound strategy is on -- had to be willing to take the lows -- knowing signals were weak but not heavy -- bounced 25 ticks with no heat on the db pattern that is so common on Fed days -- no conviction so take the test area.

now we're back to yesterday's close / value  = nothing to do near noon time -- chop and drop but no big moves.

Range day

Only trades that paid well were double tops and bottoms -- there were THREE good trades.

Rangebound --

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

July 9 chart.

Strong day -- was correct to wait for long entry on first good set up.

gap up open, test of previous support, trend day

July 9

Gap up -- again.

tf   1011  at 7:53

TSLA added to QQQ.   2.4%

YY, SCTY, AMZN   strong.

GDX, GLD strong on China inflation data.


IBD names, regional banks strong.

IYT broke TL to upside...   confirming.

QQQ up 9 days in a row.
NAMO 43...

oil flat 103.05.

PCLN 888 --   huge winner yesterday.

XHB -- under 50 day MA - lots of distribution.  Really not participating but it doesn't matter for now.

XLF - pushing hard - may hit new highs soon.

/tf -- ran up to 1013, TL break, double bottom 1009, back to 1011 -- small backtest of TL break.

premarket trading may be best to take double tops/bottoms as mostly rangebound but difficult with no Market Signals to work with.

SOYBEANS, CORN -- UP 1.4%  huge jumps --

CF, MOS may spark

Backtest entry for /tf -- right on  -- no heat as it backs down again 1010.  

/cl drops 102.77 -- o/n lows.

note: yesterday's failed trade -- triple bottom after a b/o -- but the adv-dec. never popped -- so it was a prone to failure.  Must have everything going our way.

/tf  1012.3   9 am.... .57%

TSLA, DDD, amzn, nflx, scty, irbt, aig, yy, snts, gmcr push.

/tf -- tl break / backtest -- and  pullback now to 1008.9 -- almost to the old high b/o  --

AD trending down to 300 at low.

big gravestone doji at the open was the signal to look for  short -- and that it was safe to get in for test of on low.

 /tf  lod  10:29 am --  look for 11:30 entry???

/tf 1014 --  just need to get on the TL and set tight stops -- the winners will take care of the losers.

Market Signals confirm -- you don't have to wait.

You just NEED 3 TOUCHES of  line.

AD  1100 -- no shorts possible... yet.

IYT  2.5%
XHB 2.12%

Dangerous market to short....    squeezing.  You need a TL to work with, not a hunch.

small p/b to 1013...

no TL formation..

ad 1200+
adr +700

double top?   too strong.   No TL.

can you short a triple top wit had +1200 and all signals bullish?  I just don't think so.

Need confirmation from somewhere.   Can't be purely a chart - has to be within context of the day.

triple top /es -- failed.    Internals in Trend up Day.

+700, +1200 adv-dec.

tf 1017 --

adrl 856

XHB -- ripping huge bounce  on   low vol.

AD 1390 --    
tf 1017.50 -- double top -- flattening adrl..   midday rangebound.

adrl  trending down 692 -- could look for a TL to surf down...

XHB -- still trending up.

AD  +1000  = no short set ups  period?  Would this save a lot of bad trades?
AD 1300+ today so definitely not.

/tf rolling back 1015

AD 1400... just too strong to tank so don't bother.

PERI   8.95% end of day.

1015 close....

power day.

charts later.

Monday, July 8, 2013

july 8

/tf takes out all time highs o/n  1009.4  -- blue skies.

now 1007.8 at 7 am.


all time high 1008.3 - now a double top area.   TL break +double top at known resistance.  May be ideal short?

premarket prone to breaking established lines.

IBD names extremely green pm.


PCLN +16 points.    to 872.

1008 holding.

gld, gdx higher on some calls. 

/cl  down 1% -- finally.

scty, ddd, pcln,  superstrong.

1008.3   acting like res.

1008.5  at 11am

excellent Market Signals... need signficant time to fade.

many new 52 wk highs printing.


1:20   tf 1006

signal earlier for 30 t drop - then spike back up -- now wavering again

ad 390 --

utilities leading.

2:45   Big wedge sets up -- won't get out of  it.

1008 ...

ad 399

/tf -- stalled

lost 5 ticks on triple bottom --  I think it was a good trade....  signals were strong.   but

AD  at 350 and never budged on intial b/o of wedge -- dead market here -- just too extended.

/tf -- breaks lower

Strong IBD names but XLU leading and /nq red...     NAMO extended... could not trend anymore.

Had to recognize rangebound -- look for a double bottom entry.

Friday, July 5, 2013

reminder on trend trading.

If signals/market is in uptrend, you can take the 5min TL break plus small test.

If there's an established TL down, going to need the 1 hour rule.

July 5: 5 min chart

Easy entries.

Strong internals, good jobs data...

A full gap fill and run.

That end of day run featured advrl over 1000...  pushing -- clear as day.  After 998 - there was nothing to do but hold. But so few are able to follow a trend all the way.

Patience got you a clean double bottom set up early and another one end of day for the end of day run.

/tf strong day off the gap fill bottom and power finish.

Also note on the first double bottom - that required at least 1 hour from the time of the low of day to confirm a base -- and the bottom occurred about 1 hour 10 min. after the low print.

No need to anticipate anything.  The patterns will arise each day in different times, but will invariably be the same TL formation and test of sup/res (double bottoms).

You don't need to know the future because your risk management takes you out fast and leaves you in slowly so it creates a CP plan.

July 5

Gap up on ECB comments - dovish.

/tf hit 1003 now 998  --

data at 8:30

/cl hit 102.19 -- highs by one tick, stop hunt and backed off.

/tf had 3rd touch entry at 6:10 am -- now 20t lower.

Wed. close was 989

50 ma  daily  -- above SPY -- bull is back

/tf 1004 -- nhod.

payrolls crush it.

/ym  172 points ---   pm  blam.

very sloppy  --

1004 to 1000.5.

/tf back under 1000


tf 999  at 9:00

tf gives up entire pop  997.3

997   lows


ad  1080 -- trending down from high open.

10:23 - low of day
need 1 hour base to get long.... rules.

11:23 -- TL test
AD  664
volrd 8.5

993.2 entry 10t stop long.

IBD names  green.
IYT, XLF green.
oil strong.

heard on stocktwits with /cl at highs:

$CL_F is going up because it and $DX_F are only futures products "going up" for weeks and plenty of market participants "don't short" Bullish
$CL_F ... and nothing is going to stop that trend anytime soon Bullish
 So -- what do you think?

-3 ticks.  /tf -- out - paper money.

/tf -- strong bounce off 1 HOUR TL   - which also was gap fill from Wed.

and now dead money midday.

/tf  996.4

internals rising -- have to stay long if you were long.  Certainly no short setting up.

tf 999
internals keep rising.
tf closes at 1003 on massive surge internals.  
easy entry at 98 caught 50 .

Monday, July 1, 2013

July 1

New month.

/tf   double tops out at 6 am -- again -- best entries in the past week have been premarket (mostly fading highs).

O/n strength.  

/gc off the floor

ONXX - major buyout.

IBD names strong.

/tf  .43%
/es .44

TSLA pt raised.

AAPL -- strong 402 pm.


problem is:   market signals are too strong PM -- not in synch with price action.  May have just shorted the low...

scratched  /tf   +2 ticks.

Simply too much strenght pm to justify taking no-vol. entry here.    Especially on 1st of new month.

some of the data from europe was positive, + Australia... so lot of reasons to elevate.

5 min ch. still in downtrend --  looking very mixed.    gap fill target...

/cl pushing higher.

and that's  20 ticks from 977.6 entry short...   don't think!  The patterns will stop you out -- the more you interefere with the process, the worse the outcome.

25 ticks.

The ONLY signals that aren't noise is the chart.  Period.

/tf   974  -- red now.   from 982   o/n high - -double top.

and bounce

triple touch. small. 

ADrl 1151 , UD huge --  get OUT The way.

1st of month....      983 -- clear skies /tf      busting the doors.

indices - at 50 day MA daily -- push?

10 points top to bottom --   /tf  and /es  approx.   ???  toppish?  or more?

more for now.  signals powerful.

10:50 --   and   /tf  breaks up   987 -- 1 hour rule saves a bad short entry.

1.23%  /tf  .... 

IBD powerful

IYT  1.34%
XHB  1.61%
10 am  strong data.

11:35 --   BREAK!!!!!!

signals break with /tf


great discipline -- never got a short signal.   Never thought about it.  

UD  nhod.

990 - stall....  /tf 2% day! huge.  Easy to get trapped into thinking p/b

qqq regains 50 day MA.  IYT 50 day MA....

Dow 147+

$vix -4.7%

/es  - note AD  topped out at 10:05...  so there's that.  But that's not enough.

1:37 --   ad  1313

/tf -- setting up short but need at least an hour    990.7

UD - keeps drifitng higher.

flop around 2 pm -- 988

IBD names are SOLID.

aegr, yy, tsla, ngvc, xone, lgf, nflx scty, saia, imos

difficult day because the first entry was so fast  -- and then you had to really wait for a safe short -- TL break -- and then double top and finally -- a descending TL  to capture max 50 tick move

/es was better because it was weaker and provided much better downside movement.   So again -- watch both markets -- if shorting, focus on the weaker market.