Monday, December 31, 2012

Mon. Dec 31

Just another Monday.

/tf  - already rising to first fib level retrace.  and HIT.   828.1

50% fib is 829.50   --- next target. 

starting to accelerate premarket. 

fiscal cliff probably passes... and we get megarally.

and 829.50  HIT.    that was easy.

831 is 61.8% fib.   

/YM - long tail -- this was a PERFECT TOUCH at the 50% retrace line.  Look at this chart

/ym  the power of fib retracement levels


/tf  passes 831.   premarket.   Deal must be on.

and retrace starting.

For 2013:


 Just something to think about.

So  /tf hit 61.8 and retraced back to 50%  -- that's pretty typical.

AAPL strong.....

/tf:  double top  at 61.8 fib -- and back down.   
/tf  - stuck at 50% fib.  

/tf  834 -- blast off.    looking for full rainbow now  835.70.

AAPL 2.5%       squeeze action.

advn-decn +1100    not a day to short without clear triple top.

AAPL  +17  on fire...

IWM broke TL -- may consolidate and really hit new highs end of day -- dangerous day to fade.

/tf    837.8 -  consolidating  ..  advn-decn over 1000+   drift up?

1465 advn-decn  /tf -- rush to 841  booooooom!

/zb  -- sinking  / confirming action.

advn-decn +1600   crushed it.

/tf  fast reversal after surge. 

/zb -- new lows -- we're not dropping today.  No sir.

/tf - double top - drop on Obama speech.   /zb new lows....

grind up Trend Day in my book.  Seen this so many times.

advn-decn 1684 --   MASSIVE POWER on buy side.   Going into new year....  nobody wants to be short and have to hold thru New Year and 1st day of year surge.

Market Signals -- clearly showing Trend Up - -no surprise as /tf grinds past 843   (844 target now)

advn-decn  +1800 now....

watch out for these  'outside standard deviation days' -- you 'll make 90% of your huge gains on 10% of the days.  The weird days are the ones to watch.

844 prints  - - 3 PM !

past 845    tick  1100 plus --        Major Day.

5 min - long tail prints  --   845ish -- TOP ?   /tf????     single indicator - not reliable.

yep - -the 5 min doji candle is High of day...  walking it back down now...

advn  +2000   might be epic AH movement too.

+2153  advn-decn -- HIGH -- unstable at this level but .... when isn't it?

/es  surge to 1425 ah.  
/tf new highs ah.

advn-decn nearly 2200.   Never ever fade signals like that -- only buy dips.

Big Signals mean - hold the winners  -- look for the big days and capitalize.  They come around more often than you think. 

Friday, December 28, 2012

Fri. 28th

Heavy selling

advn-decn:  -1442,  -1582   OUCH.  look out.

advn decn 1502 - improving a bit...

very weak signals...

short /tf on wedge break after gap fill...  technical move can take it to 824....  

advn-decn back to lows with weak TICK.

don't forget:  slow choppy days -- must be more responsive.  This wedge break 'confirmation' may fail -- more likely to be rangebound.

/tf  currently at 50%  fib level from yesterday's range -- indecisive.

stopped out -- paper  /tf short.    chop indeed means -- responsive trades only.

/tf 834    advn-decn 1174 --   won't drop.   INVN hits 11.00

/tf -- and it rips above O/N highs on some news....     advn-decn -347

/tf pullback -- slow day.   some news with fiscal cliff keeps /tf green.

IWM  may just pin at 83 which means we're already done for the day.   Best opportunity is over.

/tf  triple top  5 min candles -- flush?   at 12:44

clear triple top -- leads to the easy fall /tf --   831.50 is target ..... now 832...  see if it hits -- the 50% fib level is target.

-900 advn-decn  as Obama talk starts....   not great but 3 pm -- algos can take control on low vol.

/tf  exactly unch.   exactly at 61.8 fib, too.   funny.

/tf  sinks on no deal news... -1100 advn-decn.   830 broke...
es - full rainbow 1396   --  does it keep going????

Tf goes below 8 am  lows --  long tail - picks off stops.... bounce.  lol.  Nasty.

/es dumps AH -- stops ripped out.

INVN closes green.   Follow strength.

/tf - dumps below 0 fib - /es breaks down.

NOTE:  High of Day can often be anticipated by always looking at Market with a Higher Timeframe (see chart)

/tf makes a 3rd Touch before finally plummeting end of day

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Thurs Dec 27

fiscal cliff fears;

/tf  +/13%

DECK   blasted off  +7%  -- finally

DECK has  a lot of call buying at the offer --   big name is buying.  

advn-decn -900  ....

/tf blasted.

long tail  candle here though 5 min.

need more of a base -- too much damage, signals too weak for a sharp bounce entry.

long tail negated - new lows.

-1031 advn-decn.     fear...

stall but -1075  advn-decn  suggests - break to downside.

difficult to look for fib bounce with heavy sell signals.

-1200 advn-decn -- keeps you out of longs....

advn-decn -1300  no buyers.  no base to work with. 

-1400 advn-decn --  heavy TICK.   doesn't take a genius to see which way the winds blowing today.

see a lot of bottom fishing longs... but these early longs are exactly why the pullback keeps pulling... the last sellers are the most bullish... see?

-1600  advn-decn

/es  drops 1400.  
Dow under 13,000.

-1649 advn-decn   /tf 825   harsh.   -1.2%
Dow -137

broke 5 min  TL --   advn-decn - slight improvement -- could be a 50% intraday bounce -- which would be around 50 ticks today.

TICK improving.

if we bounce  (after 4 days down) -- will require a multi-hour base at least still early, but bottom may be in.

sold  /tf for 15 ticks paper.  -- first fib level.

/tf - bounce was to 38% fib level (2nd fib) to the tick - and fast pullback  - perfect if you use fibs.

bounce  end of day -- back to breakeven -- was out...    triple bottom before the ramp on 5 min chart -- clear as day.   Top was the 78.6% fib -- to the tick.  Talk about fib levels!

advn-decn - almost at ZERO  from -1600 lows... !!!

Triple Bottoms are still major strong signals and are worth entering.  

/tf  slight pb   AH to 61.8 fiblevel.    833

/tf: fiscal cliff rumor create dive and rainbow rally

Friday, December 21, 2012

Fri Dec. 21

Quad opex day.

Rules are different.  Expecting tighter range and last hour to be very slow on the pin.

Plus last night's flash crash has shaken up the landscape... so the rules will be completely different... which means a trader used to doing business a particular way should probably be extra cautious.

already see  /cl is flipping around with huge tailed 5 min candles -- clearly chopping up stop orders.

What are other traders thinking?

They are probably nervous and somewhat bearish after the big drop... but the time to short was last night.

/6e - breaks TL   9:20   1.32 -- MM lower here?

advn-decn -2000 !!!!!!!!!!!!   extreme

/tf -- bounce  over  o/n highs --  30 tick move from 5 min TL breakout at 839

stops must be based on 5 min charts -- can't drop it to 'protect' gains -- will end up losing on wicks.

highs/lows may be in after first hour.  Sandbox chop for 6 hours now? 

/tf  bounce to 845 -- this is 50% retrace from ystdy highs to morning lows....    balanced now.

That was it -- either you made money or you didn't.  Rest of the day is crumbs.

846.6  is 61.8% fib.

/gc  green -- 100 tick move. 

Follow relative strength.

/tf 844 is 50% retrace -- balanced.

enter /tf break and you're done early

/tf drops back to 38% fib....   see if it holds.

long /tf  after 38 fib touch.   7 tick stop.

advn-decn -1650  market rolling back down.

Get in on the 5 min TL as they develop.

This is a Trend Down Day.  Or is it?

So slow grind -- opex day usually not trend down.  But entire Watch List is red.

Sold INVN for chump change.

Key:   Know what timeframe your comfortable with.   If you're looking for multihour trends intraday -- 5 min. candles might be best.  1 min candles may only serve to create too much noise.   But if you are scalping 5 or 10 ticks... you obviously need 1 min.

multiday -- you're looking at 15 min candles and daily charts.

If you're trading for intraday moves and keep taking 10 tick profits early... you are trading in the wrong timeframe. 

 bot /tf  843  on b/o of 5 min TL -- got 12 ticks instantly on push to 844.6  50% fib line (IWM at 84) - obvious target.    Perfect read/entry and trade.

INVN -- to 11.10 -- patience required is all.

/tf  - up to 845  but long tail building --  now 844.5 -- 50% fib touch again.    IWM 84 .... no surprise.

now big retrace -- having that fib target got you OUT responsively -- waiting for confirmation means giving back nearly 10 ticks.

I sold some INVN at 11.09

opex close pin. 

not much else to do.   Follow the trading pattern that you can live with. 

/tf - whew  close at 847  -- extra burst  takes it back to the 61.8% fib  -- taking out stops... /es also double top at the close.   basically - you should be trading from 9 to 10:30 then break until about 2:30 and see if there's opportunity at the close.    don't need to be here all day - -just get the move and then get away from the screen.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Thurs. Dec. 20

/tf 845 to start -- bounce now p/b

data at 8:30 and 10:30 today.  Watch for that.

/cl   - nice 60 tick move from 5 am start.

/6e bounced back up.

/gc - CRUSHED.   some kind of liquidation.  Why I never trade this -- acts crazy and then no reversion to the mean.

/cl -- fast 70 tick swings.

/tf - drop / bounce to new highs

IWM - very extended on daily --  no support up here, but in an uptrend... lots of indecision = wild swings.  Therefore: pays to be responsive.

note: Nearly all successful traders I know trade ONE MARKET.  Or at the very least, one market at a time, then possibly switch to another one and FOCUS exclusively.  Nearly all failed traders flit around, trading several markets simultaneously, thinking one or the other will offer a better reward.  It's much more 'exciting' to trade this way.  Excitement and consistent profitability are mutually exclusive.   So figure out what you want fast.

/gc - note  3 bump bottom finally after touching 1647.   See if it holds all day.

market weak.

advn-decn  negative.

/es - tech.   touched o/n lows -- ramped to o/n highs -- to the tick.   In the box now.

wild moves -- shows indecision. 

advn-decn +600     strong underlying bid despite a lot of red from tech. leaders.   confusing.

Good housing data came out.  Financials/utilities ??? are the leaders.    /tf  pushing to new highs....

sp  green  / dow, naz red -- so tricky day but still managed to get really small moves on TZA  2x!  for small small profit.  

Have to be willing to take responsive entries when you see this scenario.

fighting the flow -- some kind of bad habit.... I don't get it.  Ignoring what you see...

The price for overthinking is expensive.

/tf   851.2  surging on advn-decn  +800 internals...

ewi, ewp  up 8 days in a row.  Funds pushing for the highs to close the year on low volume.

end of year holiday week -- rules are different.   Bulls in control  (except for stocks I like).

/es - double top to new highs... duh -- internals were obvious.  Can't short.

/tf - close at highs ---  

need to rethink everything.

5 min timeframe seems better suited.... I can't be flipping for peanuts.   Need to see the big targets and hold for them.

/tf lines of support clear on 5 min candles

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Wed Dec. 19.

note: If you start your trading decisions with "I think... "   you are already making a mistake.  Who cares what you think?

If you start with "I see that... "  then you are basing your decision on what you observe.

Your thinking will often go against what you observe.  So stick to what you can see.  You don't need to spend much time thinking or worrying.  Or being happy.  Just keep looking.

I see we are in a roaring uptrend.

/6e  over 1.33

/cl over 89

FDX up on ER.

FB strong.

housing data at 8:30 -- so have to wait and see the reaction.

Europe was strong overnight.

/tf still under 846.   Housing data did little.

AAPL red.

/tf -- break above o/n high   at 9:17    846.6   <----- nbsp="nbsp" of="of" or="or" p="p" range="range" top="top" trend="trend" up="up">
5 min  /tf candle here -- turning into REVERSAL

short /tf -- on 5 min long tail candle -- which formed a double top.   risk: 12 ticks.  If I'm correct, should take no heat.

/zb -- up off lows -- confirming pullback.

/tf  drops at open -- no touch of o/n lows.    balanced...   /zb strong.   looks like p/b

advn-decn  +183   soft. not terrible

Big day yesterday ... chop day today?

advn-decn  near zero --  this is not going to be a trendy day.  PERIOD.

/tf -- big swing back after touching  o/n low - double bottom then 20 tick bounce.  Still bouncing

/tf  - swing back to 846.2 -- wow .   all the way.

/tf  847.50 -- burns shorts in flames at 11:06

/tf 848 - and long tail doji -- reversal?

advn-decn +600 strong

/tf double top  new highs ... blam!

850.3 high -- pullback to 846  (first fib)

/tf inside value area -- so just going to fake breaking.... take out trend following traders on reversals.

/tf big move (again) after test of lows in first 1/2 hour.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Tuesday Dec 18:

got short /tf on 5 min long tail candle at 8:35 est.

and covered for 17 ticks near  gap close.  Prior to that 5 min candle , /tf had made 3 touches at 836 -- establishing clear resistance.

Nat. gas strongest market.

May want to look at XCO, DVN, APA

/tf  touched a fiblevel at open -- now pushing to the 836 barrier.   STRONG STRONG  signals.

entry after fib-touch lead to 100 tick Trend Up day.

836 touch. 

10 am housing data in 3 min:

nearly 838 --  /tf is a pig today --

RAX, GMCR, FOSL, AMZN,  leaders.

nat gas  names pushing. 

TROX another 10%f

advn-decn +1000  runaway train.

+1153 --  5-sigma day?    this is going to be huge.    Dow only +50 still.

/tf  new resistance is 841.70ish. 

+1300 advn-decn -- MONSTER day.   shorts that don't recognize what's going on are being destroyed.  You NEVER get SHORT early on a day like today -- if at all. 

advn-decn - slides to 1200....  /tf  841.2 high...   all this on rumors??? wow.


imagine... fighting this

/tf 842 -- looks weaker    advn-decn still +1100     how can you fade it?  Still massive Trend Up Signals.

/tf 844.3  --- and there you go.   Trend Up means higher and higher.   "Too high" is your mind messing with you.

So perhaps -- big movement days - view the day through 5 min candles.  When tight range, switch to 1 minute.

double top 844 -- but too Trendy to fade.

ah: expecting push on low volume.

advn-decn  +1450 at the close --   844.50  /tf  The Power of the Market.

Hedge funds going to eat a lot of fat turkey this year.   Everyone else can suck it.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Mon Dec 17:

AAPL 504 -- was below 500.   Bottom?

futures up slightly.

nat gas -- big bounce after multiday drop.

preholiday -- expect low volume.  Tighter range?

Big moves and smallball.  This week is smallball -- so need to be more focused.  Fewer opportunities for smaller rewards.

+950  advn-decn -- don't go shorting early today....

/tf  just short of O/N high touch -- and fast  25 tick drop -- that was tough -- had to be willing to be responsive at resist.

shorted /cl - for 17 ticks.      Market is strong. 

/tf  vpoc area 825 -- can't do much here but Market is solid.


When the market is sloppy and whippy, you have to change up -- can't just 'follow your system' if it doesn't allow for high volatility and whipsaw.  Just make an audible and decide to not trade.

/tf --   short squeeze past  o/n highs to 828 -- rip the stops -- low vol. volatility -- not a surprise.

advn-decn  +1000   raging strength.    Recognize.

/tf 829   kicking it up.

830.4 ---  +1100  advn-decn.  Can't stop rage day.

830.4 - this was a  61.8% retrace from high-to-low from 5 day chart.  Almost to the tick. 

rage into close //tf 831.7   /es  1426 -- also touched the 61.8% fib right there at the close (high tick)

/tf  832.7

aapl  sub 500 to 520 close. 

Friday, December 14, 2012

Friday -

Tall tails at the resistance.

OPEX day - so expect tighter range, chop, and close at a VPOC area -- looks like 820 potentially.

Two good entries today:

Just have to wait for it.

Losers will be for $150 tops.

All winners can be held for 20 - 50 ticks.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Thurs. Simple Trend.

/tf - was actually easy if you waited for the test of highs -- then entered on first TL break -- after the 5-min. doji candle.

Establish the TL and cover on a break -- good for 90 ticks.

Trend Day after brief pop

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

what's moving?

be attune to what's moving.

/cl  was strong premarket -- spiked up 90 ticks - then gave most of it back -- so lots of opportunity... especially playing off 5 min candles with long tails at support, then resistance. 

/tf barely moving.

tight range  - FOMC -- must acknowledge  /tf is untradeable....

meanwhile -- /cl  has jumped 3x -- big swings... volatile.

tried to get a bounce on /tf twice...   lost 2x  for 20 ticks.

Was not acknowledging total reversal....

Saw the short set up but did not take it.

Unwilling to accept reversal after Fed day - but that's the best time for reversals to happen... too much profit taking... too many still thinking buy the dip -- not following the charts.  /tf  838 to 828.

/tf  828.1 -- no buy signal.     Tempting -- but chart says no.

What I did poorly:  Did not wait for a clear signal.  Did not take a clear signal when presented.
What I did right: Honored my stops and kept losses from spiralling.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Tues: 11

/tf gap up overnight... suprise??? ha.   to 833.6

shorting on paper at 832.7 after 3 bump pattern. 

set up Fib Retracement --- so target is around 828 --

/cl -  did a  61.8% fib retrace and now has broken the TL  - back under 86.

sold  /tf  - premarket  +11 ticks. 

Looking for a spike up in first 5 min.   But /cl  is giving most of it back -- nice tell it's not all roses.

/tf 828-- be funny if we touched this pullback target.

/tf   833.8 - -new highs -- TREND UP DAY    834....

too many shorts getting piled drived.

Need to recognize-- we broke out of the Range.  That game is OVER. New game.  New rules.

/tf - new highs   TREND UP DAY --  this is not rocket science. 

Trading is SIMPLE but not easy.   Traders lose by overcomplicating a simple system, striving for perfection, when all winning systems MUST incorporate constant losing.

/cl  85.31 -- was a stophunt double bottom from yesterday -- PUKE it up.

going against my clear read of TREND UP DAY -- why?

/tf  double top --   internals strong.

CRUS _  strong off downtrend b/o.  Will have to watch for entryswing.

/tf --  5 min candle -- TL formation to downside and finally a break to UPTREND line on 5 min/ 5day chart  /tf -- and bounce.  

The KEY pattern was the double top /tf.   After a puke candle.  

Keep it simple.

What I did well was identify the top --  had a good TZA entry.
What I did poorly was OVERTHINK my analysis and take off the trade instead of finally allowing a winner to run long -- right here -- where it would have wiped out all losses for the day.

Monday, December 10, 2012

Mon 10th notes:

strongish premarket:

/tf 824

/cl  touched 86.70 --  touched TL on 5 min chart and retraced -- perfect technicals.

euro bounced

/tf  +.24    /es  red -- so RISK ON.  

AAPL  -1.2%

FCX, oil , gold strong.

advn-decn   flat....    grind in the range.       rangebound

be patient....

825 -- got in some TZA for a fast $110 move -- shorted into resistance 1.

/tf -- bounce to new highs -- stophunt

advn-decn  +500   /tf   826.2  --     827 is the stophunt area -- so really can't get short yet....

INVN -- working --    high vol.    options buying....  on screen.... breakout on daily -- correct move is... to hold.

in tza 14.90.   /tf topped out near previious resist.  The trick here is really - to be a Low Frequency Trader and get out at the BOTTOM of the rangetest.   Or just lose $50 on the stop out.   But to take a partial is the old way of thinking.

/cl 85.33 -- massive puke near  pit close -- should be bottom.   took out stops on low side.

advn-decn +90  not much uummph.   pcln, amzn, aapl, ebay  resting hard.

expecting a close near VPOC  /822   /tf?

why did I get it right today: 
1) INVN -- focused on a strong name / strong chart --- did that well.  Used my screen.

2) TZA -- hit and miss but ultimately got some...  focused on good chart reading -- support/resistance.  I was patient.  (But not enough.)   I correctly saw that we would probably stay in a range.

3) MDLZ:  bought another strong name, on a nice daily chart.

= It's easy to know what you did wrong, but every day -- if things go okay -- make sure to spend a moment go over what you did right.  And maybe tomorrow -- you'll do it again.

/tf --- pushes to 826  strong close.... can't fight low vol.   Was no easy day.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

OPEX fri.

Keeping things simple -- this is the key.

First of all: there is no perfect plan.  That's all a lie.  The market is always adapting.  If a system was foolproof, it would no longer work as too many people use it.

There is only your awareness of what's currently happening.

In the past week - the market was stuck in a range, bouncing on fiscal cliff news.  Friday morning was no exception.  The first pop happened at 8:30 on NFP data -- and immediately pushed to the resistance area seen earlier in the week.  This was a high probability fade that one could have taken with maybe 15 ticks stop.  It could have gone higher.  Nobody knew.  But that's the point.  You never know. 

The fade however, was nearly 80 ticks and one could have tried a reverse at the support at  819 /tf.

Once you see a bounce, this is where you could draw in a fib level to figure out how high a bounce you'll get.  50% is always the obvious target and Friday - it nailed it almost exactly.  The rest of the day was choppy mess.  But lately, the mornings are big swings and the afternoons are slow grind.  This WILL change one day.  It has to.  But for now.  Your keen observation of price action will provide you with an edge.

/tf swing to resistance/support, 50% bounce and chop

Friday, December 7, 2012


huge pop on NFP data.

/tf  827

/cl -- 86.80 - -now fading fast.

/tf  fading.

OPEX - range trade?

sloppy --  /tf -- rainbow ....

but expected  on opex -- market has faded "good" data before  -- gap ups often a fade.

/tf  ... have 819 as support 1:     819.9 now.   no surprise -- stophunt?

market is wide-ranging and inefficient  827 to 820 back to 823...

Know your market behavior -- context is everything.   Expect chop because it chops -- now fading again.

Chops should lessen on opex day.

/tf 823.1 --  50% retrace of today's range     827 - 819.80 --  done?

/cl -  retrace, now red.    no set up.

/tf - -wisely avoiding any action -- bad area.

heavy tick - -drop to 820.      appl 539.    market smallball action -  stophunting... but won't run after the NFP blowout.

/6e - pukes -- then 3 bump forms and pop squeeze of 40 ticks....  saw it early...

/cl forming a clear wedge. --

got stopped /cl -- broke under 86 to test stops -- so obvious.   That was the 3rd long tail dip since hitting the lows.  Was more than obvious.

This is the patience part. 

/tf  pin 820 - -game over Friday.

How do most Trend Changes look?

market goes up, keeps bouncing on a TL  -- the TL slope increases.... then

TL breaks clearly on 5 or 15 min. chart.... fast drop -- but wait -- there's a bounce  -- rally is not over?

market climbs to form a double top -- perhaps up to the TL break area.... then ....

drop... fast drop... consolidation.... more droppage...  fast and furious... the 2 or 3 day drop takes back days of climb.  

It's a slow process.

Thursday, December 6, 2012


quiet premarket.

/tf  stable at 820

bonds up slightly,  euro down slightly       AAPL down 4 more to 533.

WLT up 7.5%  premarket -- this got over the 10 day daily a few days ago - -the typical setup

stay with 99 MA ribbon  until major support or clear 3 bump/double bottom pattern emerges.

- Trend changes occur only at

/cl -- 3 touch on 5 min chart - perfect symmetry then  140 TICK drop -- following the 99 ma.

/cl near possible support but no db or tb pattern to work with.  and.... new lows  86.38...

/tf sloppy  near 819 --  underperforming /es

AAPL  -- huge 20 pt. swing to green.
/cl slight bounce to 99 ma -- but folds from there -- short  under 99 ma ribbon.... no major support pattern in place.

/cl  new low,   euro new low but /tf remains green  with aapl  now +30 off lows...  /tf pushing higher to resistance.

/tf -- bottoms near 816 -- rips all the way back to 822.50  despite  /6e weak, zb strong -- basically breaking all the rules...   even  /cl   down 2%  but   /tf is a strong buy 

The whole game is waiting for the right setup.  I'm guessing most failed traders are those that have a system that requires too much patience for them pychologically - so they take bad trades.  They hit their winners, but the impatient losers wipe it all away.  Trading is much slower than it appears.  Most people need more interaction. 

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

wed: why fade?

utilities were strong

AAPL was getting killed all day...

/tf  was underperforming -- risk off

and now we see a selloff into the close after the

drop to ystdy  support -- megarally and afternoon chop.

Market feel is everything.   The multiple factors that make up each unique day provide the edge. 

Only need to trade half a day if you are prepared.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012


/cl -  drops to  sup. 1  premarket.

/6e  touches 1.31

market strong but now giving it back

/tf settling at 820ish.

/zb reverses to green.

bounce again --  /6e  - small dt  at 1.31

/cl - long tail at support 1:  small bounce.

/6e  new high 1.3105.

XHB strong.   /es may be stronger than ppl suspect.  good #s by TOL. 

/6e  -- another 5min reversal candle at 1.3109 high.   Crushing stops.

/cl  new lows.     

Seems like market is ALL IN  one way or the other.   /gc  also plummets under 1700.

long /cl - puke double bottom -   5 min TL break + small double bottom - entry:  looking for 50% FIB retrace of morning drop.

KEY:  must be patient with winners to pay for the losers.

/tf chopped - then ran to touch 50% retrace from last 2 days -- on long tail -- and that was the obvious place to short.   Choppy action but daily chart extended -- vulnerable to retest of lows.

Market Signals strong though -- will be a battle of shits.

/cl  - nailed the bottoming action -- ended up being over 110 tick bounce -- MUST HOLD LONGER with WIDER STOP --  winners must be big to pay for losers.

 /tf  -- down to 814.60 now covering -- up 20 ticks.   High vol. candle -- squeeze back.

/tf - indeed - the double bottom pattern -- leads to slow grind then a pop.  Now nearly 35 ticks from entry signal.  Like lifting 2x week heavy -- only need 2 entries a day to hit it on /tf  or /cl

/tf -- so -  from double bottom - rips to 821+  nearly 70 ticks off low -- then fades slowly.  These key entries can pay for the entire day. 

We're seeing fast moves based on political news/rumors -- don't expect proper topping patterns.

advn-decn  -200 but /tf  green  -- divergent action -- can do anything.

99 ma ribbon up /tf -- this is still a buy dips until a short pattern emerges... grinding on shorts.

shorting the double top on /tf --  stocktwits all bullish -- but I just follow charts.  Fuck your opinion.  Or mine.

No move AH -- just dip then pop --  all sloppy because  Fiscal Cliff is binary event -- entire market trading like a biotech.  Have to look for ranges and fade the long tail extreme moves.

Did not execute well but I did limit my losses.  Frustrating.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Mon Dec. 3

Gap up again.

Trend up Market Signals.

/cl  bottomed at 5 am -- ran 97 ticks.

/tf  bottom at 2:45 am -- ran 130 ticks.

/cl - pb and 2nd push to new high  89.63  ---   strong.  89.80 - is first major double top area.

/cl - hits 89.88 -- stophunt.  PUKE candle.  89.97... 

/tf - straight drop to O/N lows -- perfect move.

/tf  down to 818  - -- 110 TICK drop! 

99 ma  on top - -/tf now in downtrend -- brief pop to 34 ma -- but now required triple bottom to get long.

/cl - bounce -- will soon create triple touch.

/cl  - spot on triple touch -- then 10 min. later -- fast drop --  Have to be willing to hold on, even if it doesn't drop immediately.

/cl drops 90 ticks after 3 bumps....

midday -- well... the morning pop and rip - now we're balanced here -- gotta wake up early.  Should be done by 11:20 ideally.    Afternoon is probably not going to be anywhere near as good for trending markets.

midday -- /tf -- sloppy double bottom for about 25 ticks.

short  /6e  paper --  on 3 bump set up on 5 min chart -- extended --

market breaking lower....     6e holding up for now.

Friday, November 30, 2012

Fri. notes

Wow -- saw the  TL set up in /cl

entered  premarket short -- and caught 22 ticks on a quick drop back to the TL.  Great read.

Pushing even lower too.

/cl --  touches below  overnight lows made at 3:40 am -- obvious now -- stophunt.

87.73 -- see if this holds for the next few hours -- in which case -- grindy chop action.

Market Signals weakening.   /tf   unch. now.

Topped out..

Target: 822  is 50% retrace of 816 - 828 run.

opex Fri:   Often   wide range action in first half hour -- play in the range rest of the day... but most rules don't apply past 2 weeks.

$NAMO +60 -- this is major pullback range.   We are extended on daily charts.  

/cl - Indeed -- grinds back up to 88.13 in sloppy action.  

end of month  - opex -- so prevailing winds could keep markets elevated - but sharp drop on Monday?   

weak Market Signals --  /tf   at 50% retrace.

/tf  overnight lows....       IWM 82

IWM --- 15 min. TL broke. 

/cl   SPIKES  to stophunt  doubletop -- great   R:R  short  with tight stop.  Why not?

If you just thought like a MM -- and considered how far you'd want to push to trigger stop orders... you could find perfect entries almost every day.

/tf -- well   smooth trend whoosh from 828 to 818 -- 100 ticks....  how could you capture most of this?

If you're looking for these moves - you just keep a trailing stop -- either you get it or it chops and you don't. 

Your system MUST have a way to allow winners to run and get out of losers fast.  If your wins are small... you can't make it.

I think for me -- I keep looking at 5 min charts because I need bigger swings on small account.

So looking for  Classic  top/bottom patterns and holding into the sup/resist. area that's my target.

opex  pinning:    typical Fri. afternoon.  

rip after the close -- end of month.    Close green.

/tf - creates a nice triple bottom before ripping 40 ticks -- same pattern over and over. 

Thursday, November 29, 2012


strong market signals means:  only a MAJOR sell signal set up for a short.

Should be looking for small bounce patterns.  /tf may take out stops at highs at close

Tech strong. 

Too many shorts getting hunted. 

/tf minor high -  823 -- just went through and reversal candle --  nice stophunt.

close near highs...

Opportunities in morning -- the set ups are only there once a day usually so take 'em and get the most of it.  Most of afternoon chop-waste.   No reason to be involved.

See your set up -- take it.   Have fib levels set.  

Prepare for triple tops at resistance and take the smooth ride.

If you're sitting there all day... it's just a waste of time.  The key levels are always there waiting to get hit.


Why do 90% of traders fail?

What is the key issue?  Probably many issues.

I think one main issue is clearly defined rules and consistency.

Rules are established and then it's easy to break them, frontrun your own signals in an attempt to get a better price or get out at a better exit.

Eventually, a trader is filled with uncertainty.  What do I do?  I'm afraid to act.  The trader is afraid of what the market will do. 

But no -- the trader is really afraid of what the trader will do.

Will I freeze this time and hold a huge loss? 

If you define your loss ahead of time and know what your signals are, what are you afraid of?

You will lose sometimes and win sometimes.  The market will always be uncontrollable so worrying about it is a waste of time.  And makes no sense.

You have to focus always on your plan. If you trust that you will act the same way every day.  Following systems, honoring stops, entering on clear signals, then the profits take care of themselves.

The seasoned trader probably does not think much about profits at all, especially during the trading day.

If you are struggling with fear/uncertainty.  Go back to your plan.  Can you clearly define it?  Can you explain it to another person? 

The uncertainty can be eliminated, but first you have to accept that it's coming from you, not the market.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Wed 28 NOV:

Using 5 min. candle charts today:

long /cl 86.48 on doji 5 min candle near previous support  15 tick stop. High vol. on the doji.

But premarket weak.

/tf 804
/es 1392

looks like EWG -  -8% ???

GMCR  22%
NBR  - upgraded -- may be nice intraday.

/cl - ribbons fanned to downside on 5 min chart.  Should I wait for more confirmation?

/cl  breaks to new lows -- through the support area from a few days ago.  Obvious.  No reason to take a countertrade right near a clear stophunt area. Need more confirmation to enter.766

/cl dropping to 86.17  support area from 5 days ago.

euro sinking...

stopped again /cl -- trying to enter way too early.   No  base to support a move.  Like trying to life a weight while jumping in the air.  Won't work until you land, plant your feet, take a deep breath... the setup IS the trade. The PRE-PATTERN gives the market the power to lift.

aapl  -1.3% premarket.

/cl  dropping further -- almost 100 ticks.   No base

dragonfly doji  /cl  85.40 --  major support -- first green doji -- and 30 tick bounce.

trend down Market Signals --   be very patient -- may not bounce at all today.  Trend Down?

/tf  bounces 90 ticks on bad news/ then good news -- wow -- that was crazy.   bounce took it too a clear TL formation on 5 min candle where it was correct to short.

Like the FIB LINES drawn in -- provides extra targets.

extreme chop -- 796  to 808+   KNOW YOUR environment.

Need to adjust EACH DAY based on volatility -- today is very volatile.  Hairpin moves with size.  So learn to speak the language of the market.

IWM -- double top on  5 min chart.  2nd top stop hunt.  May as well short here.  Either it's a top or or loss for $150.

well  -- 140 tick range   /tf -- very unusual.  Trend following with 1 min. charts would have picked up some of it.

Market Signals are mostly mixed.... really hard to know -- mostly short term traders involved.

/tf  just crawling...  over 810 now from 796 low!  99 MA showing the way.   Signals strong.

pullback has begun after 2pm beige book -- nice DT pre-pattern at 810

short /tf -- 5 min   3-touch pattern  8 tick stop   --- at 3:04

/tf - breaks wedge ---   trending up.  Have to stay with the flow to upside.

close at the highs ... was not with the flow psychologically.  Massive reversal day.  Have to accept anything -- follow charts.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Tues Nov. 27: observations:

FB  up 2.2% premarket. heavy vol.

/tf almost flat.

/tf  pops on  durable goods data -- reverses fast -- tricky and fast.

AAPL -- giving back premarket gains, almost red.

Mixed Signals again but yesterday market closed strong on weak signals.

Financials best.  Big tech leaders flatish but goog, aapl, tsla, wfm, lulu, fb still green slightly.

best to assume /tf will bounce at support areas -- growing bearish signals but still mixed.

/es  pullback to 1402.  AAPL  now  -.3%

/tf first sup.  806.5

Market Signals now close to trend down.

/tf  hits sup 1 -- rips to new highs  812 -- double top with LONG TAIL -- then drop to VPOC area 808.

low vol. rip - -took out stops

will make more money when you do less.

advn-decn flat,  tick flat --  /tf near vpoc area -- nothing to do here -- absolute worst place to trade.

806 - 812 -806 - 811 --  /tf  chopping for 50 tick swings...       hard to play but not impossible.   Need to be willing to switch sides quickly.

market firmed up  811.5 /tf --  advn-decn +650   tick stay above zero.

Refuses to drop.  tails above 812  --  FOUR TIMES.  Ceiling? 

clear triple top pattern develops  at 812ish area -- but market refuses to give up much.

Bought VVUS -- on strength -- supported above 10 day MA -- giving it .75 of room -- focusing on strength. 

Very balanced Market Signals at 810 /tf.   Market really just tested the 5 min chart. TL -- went as far as it could -- got tired at 812 on double top -- may stay in this range now as the edges are clear.

Rangebound day -- have to determine the range and be responsive... there is no other trade.

Trending market -- can buy breakout or every wedge break pullback.  No other trade.  

currently :  clearly mixed signals -- range has been established 806 - 812     ... 808ish is no man's land.

advn-decn +110   aapl red.  vxx green.   Market may be distributing.   IWM green but other indices red.

Clear  TL break and retest on 5 min chart  IWM.   No near support if it starts to sell off.

if IWM gaps down tomorrow - I'd think you'd want to short all rips -- we're on the cusp of a breakdown -- or pullback to 80 at best.

 Won't add more TZA  now -- only avg. up.

Sold TZA at the close -- got the best price.   Like futures, holding overnight adds uncontrollable risk.  But my thesis was correct.

Finding 5 min charts may be better way to find patterns -- go for bigger swings, be more responsive.  Switching to 1 min charts during trending markets for clearer entry/exits.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Mon Nov. 26

Futures down premarket.

/tf 802.5

99 MA leading to downside.

Market up 5 days in a row on light vol. coming into today.  

chatter on DECK  - strong.

First hypothesis is z-day, rangebound consolidation type day.   Market Signals are weakish -- but not terrible. 

I'll be looking to enter on 5/9 xover today -- play the ranges. 

/es just below 1400. 

/tf short - stopped for -3   tried  5/9 xover - anticipating rangetrade -- but bounced.  Hard to enter premarket on low volume.   Pattern/rules subject to fail.  Reenter - one last time.  keep the stop.  I lowered the stop which was a classic mistake. 

Market Signals pretty weak.  

/tf    new highs on weak Market Signals -- bizarre...    ???

/tf forming a wedge  805 -- break to squeeze or lower?  Market Signals say down.... but they don't always tell the truth.     weak advn-decn  weak $TICK.

If we rip higher -- it'll be a major surprise.  I would hypothesize we end up testing lows based on Market Signals.

FB  up 7%

/tf breaking down... from wedge.
/tf pops back to 805 -- POWERFULLY STRONG -- no patterns just a lot of chop.  Taking out stops. 

data at 10:30 - -might be frontrunning good news -- 4 min. to go.   Flat here.   That would explain bizarre strength.

/tf --  no movement  chop at 804-805 -- but looks vulnerable to whoosh down.   Can't see a clear pre-pattern though.

FB, DECK, DDD leaders.

5/34 xover  /tf -- down to 803 -- now looking weak.  short /tf  with 8 tick stop at 804.

/tf -- now 801.20 -- 5/34 xover was alll it took... 27 ticks and still dropping on heavy TICK.

So weak Market Signals were reliable -- but needed to wait a while for 5/34 xover to confirm and provide easy trend down.  Now -- probably correct to hold through small corrections and ride it short. 

/cl - nice mini triple bottom at 11:28 - marked the low.  Little Pre-patterns form before real trends.

small triple top and 5/34 xover  /tf  at 1:11  --  trying a short here.    H/S pattern on 15 min. chart as well.

AAPL  5/34 xover -- first time in hours after small double top. 
AAPL - back to highs - now a triple top.   Very strong... perhaps will keep running.  Probably a bad idea to short 588.  Too obivious even though it's nearly vertical.

AAPL - new triple bump - much cleaner - slanting down - now a break of TL.

on 5 min chart -- we are at a clear VPOC area -- really not a good place to do anything.

Today is a test of patience.

indices mixed.   Really no trend here except the big tech names - ebay new 52wk. high.  amzn, aapl.  Have to be in select names today to catch a run.

TICK hovering near zero...   don't get lulled into making a boredom trade.

and a rip into the close -- just didn't expect it all the way to 808.8 - nearly 20 tick surge 30 seconds AFTER the close -- 99 ma was pointing the way.  Just had to be willing to go with the flow.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Mon Nov 19:

futures up premarket

/tf  to 780 -- this is a moderate  resistance area.

/cl up to 88.

pre-holiday usually bullish but now 200 ticks off Fri lows...

so expecting significantly lower volume and volatility -- especially after Fri. huge move.

Digest and consolidate but bullish bias.

AAPL up to 535 on upgrades.
SINA up 8%
BMTI -- buyout for over 100% premium.
FB  +2.8% 

oil up strong. 

new highs -- pushing strong.   781.2 /tf
782.9 --  FIB LEVEL created using Daily Chart -- be amazing to see this hit.

and 782.9 HITS. at 8:58. on Puke Candle --  top?

/cl up 100 ticks,  /tf  783.50    IWM  83.40 -- touches top of 15 min channel.  Major resistance here...  but no short patterns developing.  

TREND UP DAY -- but gap up opens are different -- usually a trap to get long.

Trend Up Signals -- 
advn-decn 2150 --  HUGE.

Slight p/b  but Trend Up Signals prevent getting short   786  /tf  at 10:43.  

correct action is to keep getting long all b/o of wedge p/bs/

all sectors green, IbD list 99% green, euro rip, /zb red -- Trend Up Signals should essentially be a 'NO SHORT' policy on the day.  Although -- looks like a wedge is forming and breaking in /tf.

very tight range now -- not much to be done here.

Dow +160  pretty typical - oversold into holiday weekend.  Not much selling to reverse it either.

With 99 MA supporting a Trend Up Day -- the ONLY trade to take is dip-buying.

If you are trading for a living, you are probably constantly trying to simplify your process.

/cl - rips to new highs - takes out stops.   from High several days ago -- very very obvious -- using 15 min. chart.

market grinding up -- no reason to get in the way shorting. 

3rd attempt /tf - to push to new highs -- Trend Up Signals is clear -- we may not make new highs, but we sure ain't going back down.    However -- now a nice triple top forming over multi-hour period.   The longer the base, the steeper the chase.  For now... still poor r:r environment.

/tf creeping up but advn-decn is weakening and $TICK is flat -- very noticeable divergence.  /cl also broke 99 MA after a huge run.

trying short on  divergent  TICK  and advn-decn -- responsive short here -- so only risking 12 ticks

5 min  triple top + 5/34 xover.  Really HAVE to take this trade because it probably WILL fail since we're in Trend Up Day -- but a failure would pay off at least 5:1 if Trend Day somehow fails.

Nonetheless...  the basic rule should be NO SHORTING on a day like today unless there are much clearer divergent signals.    

/tf -- pushing up...  /es  above 1380 --  charts/signals say higher.  Dow up 181.  Is that "too much".  No such thing.  Bear market rallies are fierce for a reason.  Lots of fuel.

 /tf flat but pushing into the close.  AAPL  up over 7% !!!   best day in 2 years.   Major Buying.

IWM finally touches 79 -- obvious target.
/tf touches 790    from 760 on Friday...

/tf  closes OVER 791 -- right through VALUE area.   Bear squeeze.   Trend UP DAY was correct early on.

Sometimes you just got to go with the flow.

Friday, November 16, 2012


Might be the best move of the day is over.

/tf -- bottomed out 5 AM --  ran 70t  to  VPOC on 5 min chart -- double topped at 771

/cl  had an even bigger move  160t -- 5:15 am bottom to VPOC area at 87.   now long tails up here.

/tf  entry signal was a 6:15 AM.

/tf  763 - testing lows of yesterday  --    some IBD names green    XHB green -- may be testing.

holding /tf  for a key target is necessary or you won't pay for the losers.

In a choppy day -- like most opex fridays -- early entry is better.   Use  5/9 xover at the edges.   Chances are the moves are smaller so need to enter closer to the pivot.

/cl takes out stops -- entry was 5/9 xover -- broke downtrend then backtested to 34 MA - which created the bowl shape.

shorted /cl  on 5/9 xover after  stops taken out on 5 min chart -- near high, covered at 99 MA test -- for 35 ticks.  Very simple trade.

the 5/9 xover will only work well in a rangebound condition.  Market Signals are clearly weak so this was a great risk to short an extended /cl

I should not have covered at 99 ma -- let a trailing stop ride it down.  Winners must run as long as possible. 

Now a Trend UP day -- so rules switch to wedge breakouts on every pullback to 34 or 99 MA.

possible trend up day rules:   if  /zb red,  /6e green,  advn-decn over 500, indices up.  IBD leader board mostly green -- auto Trend Up.

/tf  from 760.50 to 771 on the bounce.    resting above 34 MA, 99 MA fanned out -- Trend Up look.

a fade will require a very clear triple topping wedge. Market Signals are strong.

/tf -- been over 1 hour since the rally --  5/34  xover short signal?  Should you take this with such strong market signals?  Obey patterns/charts or Market Signals trump?  (By the time Market Signals turn -- it will be too late)

IWM  77 and bounce -- OPEX pinning -- so basically - the best opportunities are over for today.

wide chop but 770.80 still -- so correct to avoid -- no real opportunity now for trend.

Market Signals on Trend Up -- probably some people trying to short this close -- going into holiday week... deeply oversold.    Why not just follow Signals and follow the trend? 

774  /tf -- resistance on 15 min. chart.    high of day -- Trend Up Signals provide the direction.

MAJOR PUKE 15:45 -- usually a top signal.   gravestone doji.

Triple Tail Top -- near end of day -- really see no way market can climb higher.  But Trend Up Day is hard to short -- won't drop.

Recognizing a trend up day (in this case Massive Short Covering, but to the same result) is 90% of the game -- it determines the kind of trades that will work.  Entering b/o's after pullbacks works. 

crazy day -- but charts were charts.   Just gotta be mechanical every day in your rules.

Thursday, November 15, 2012


More pain.

Nearly 120 tick range - top to bottom  /tf -- then a bounce -- now 766.6  -- devilish value building.

XLF, OIH, FXE  green and  TLT red.  So Market Signals are Mixed.  Bad idea to enter in a chop zone. 

Entry long on break above 99 MA with small base.   now  5/34 xover confirmation.

rewriting rules -- down to just 3.

99 MA below but not fanned out.

/tf 770 appears to be 5 min VPOC area.

/tf close 767. 

AMRN -- strong  - b/o 5/34 xover  good for .10f

99 MA -- following the TREND DAY -- but then... switching to a long after  40 mins past low -- take a 5/34 xover right after a double bottom -- confirm after breaking above 99 MA...  push to 5 min VPOC area -- then total rainbow to the 5/34 b/o area -- and again... more covering into the close.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Wed Nov 14

Market Signals are strong --

/tf  up .23% but chopping around after PPI data.

Now double bottoming to low of day.

Potential movement with Spain requesting bailout?  Possible news at 10:15 am.

/cl  -.22%

ANF  up huge -- so retail names, DECK, ARO  strong.

EWP  1.74%  -- strong euro /  Market pushing up a bit.   Respect the strength.  Almost trend up day Market Signals to start -- might just start with a rip.

CSCO, ANF  -- huge leaders 
DDD, FB (despite lockup ex), WPRT
ferts down on MOS. 

2 puke candles /tf  +  5/9 xover - long  because Market Signals are strongish. Rangebound Market - not Trend.

Israel  missile strikes -- Hamas leader killed.     /cl  POPS.   in uptrend.  over 99

/tf   - lowest touch in past 5 days.      retail still strong.

Trend Down day forming now...   follow the rules.  

780.7 -- /tf  plummeting.    Trend Down Day in effect now.   99 MA ribbon was clear.  No reason to have a bias or opinions.

still trending down fast.

/tf   778.70 --   MAs keep you out of trouble ... no bounce here yet.

caught 9 ticks on 3 long 1 min tails plus 5/9 xover - sold into 34 MA.  Small targets here only -- Trend Down day still.    /tf  back under 780

FOMC at 2 pm -- lunchtime chop.

LXK -- doing well.  Green all day.

/tf  down to 777 -- Trend down day -- there's no reason to overthink.  Sure, there were some small bounces but now back to low of the day. No surprises.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012


triple bottom  /tf  at  5 min sup. area -- long for counterbounce to 99 MA -- risk 6 ticks.

breaking lower -- this was against the main concept of always trading with the Flow.

Market Trend DOWN day premarket signals.   Dangerous day to countertrade.

note how /es went above 1430 overnight.   Markets tend to 'superspike' right before the huge drops all the time now.   Waiting for 99 MA to slope in the direction of the trade captures profits with little heat.

/tf  813 --    Heavy pressure to downside..    MAs fanned out.

real IWM support is under 81    , now 81.38.    This is a VPOC on 15 min chart so may churn here, build up hope before 2nd wave down.

813 puke candle -- so now it churns here  815.3...   Target is 99 MA but low probability trades here - chop area.

Market Signals dictate whether chart patterns/rules should be followed.  /cl pushes above 99 MA - trending up -- but we must look at the context.  Trend Down Signals means we must treat a single market acting strong with suspicion.  And indeed after a single 1 min pop -- retrace.

And /cl  - new lows -- crashing.

/cl - was actually a great trade after the TL broke --   50 ticks within minutes and sinking fast.  Know the Trend,  wait for the pullbacks/rips -- reenter on the failure.

Context is king --  60 ticks after /cl broke its attempted push.

stops:  always adjust to current volatility.

Dow -213     Market Signals quite clear --  Pain.   but IWM under 81 --- MAJOR SUPPORT. 

In the hole now.

/tf 806 --   support at 800 now.

99 MA and Market Signals saying NO to countertrading.

still no PUKE from /tf  -- grinding lower --   iwm 80.50  major triple bottom  on 15 m.

AMRN -- still green.

Context:  Market Signals  Dow -303 !    These unusual days happen and one should be prepared.  Rules Still Apply -- but too often people think there "has to be a bounce" -- well, do the charts say so?  The charts, more than ever, (always always) will show you.  Even if the market is down 2% -- it doesn't have to bounce.  It doesn't have to do anything.

AAPL is down 3.5%  way under its 200 day MA.

see ppl getting long... why?  The market signals are extreme.   Dow -329.   This is several deviations outside normal...   mean reversion strategies should be put aside.

Puke Candles on AAPL and /tf  and /es

IWM -  touched 200 day on Daily Chart.  May chop here...

What if you ONLY went long above 99 ma and only went short below 99?

Puke Candles -- may hold the line.... chop now.

/tf  touched 799  a week ago -- so no surprises to bottom out just below 799. 

TICK showing positive readings....  ran out of panic sellers here.

Puke Low on /es -- really nice bottom nailed.

/tf -- up  TL established...    pushing into 99 MA.     midday chop.

Must Follow Rules Religiously at first.   Be Devoted to your Rules and Money Management.

Short  /tf  on wedge break --  Market Signals in my favor... /zb  breaks to new highs..  7t stop.
stopped out:  Problem:   chop time so stop would need to be much higher -- volatility too high today for a tight stop.

aapl 558   -4.2%  !!!   No safe stocks in a bear market.

/tf - pops over 99 MA -- short covering rally  of 30 ticks  -- small tail candle but still trending up.

so - Trend Down day Market Signals but now 99 MA leading the way UP -- with mixed signals... probably best to simply wait -- and enter a short lower -- when things line up again -- for now 99 MA is support... and to short early is going against the Basic Rule of 99 MA leading the way.

You should ALWAYS be either correct for a nice gain or wrong for a small loss.  Your money management rules keep you CP.  How can you not be when you follow sound rules of trend trading?

99 MA is beneath... so why do you insist on making up new rules/ or taking small patterns that are noise?

If Market Signals and 1 min chart are conflicting -- Wait for Clear 3 bump patterns or wedges -- chances are we are in a countertrend chop mode and there won't be a Trend anyway.

/cl to new lows but /tf stays flat.

/tf -- sinking here -- 99 MA trending down....   the Market Signals were too strong to overcome so Wedge formed intraday. 

and /tf  breaks wedge to upside at 3:30ish.   Strong Tick  short covering...

99 MA - getting under -- so supportive despite TREND DOWN signals....mixed up here.

99 MA now supporting  /tf -- no reason to be short -- break of wedge and forming base.

small consolidating /tf  over 99  while in a trend down day -- required a 3   1min tails -- 3rd one led to breakdown at the lastminute.

Once again -- we see 3 touches before the move.

 dow closes  -312.      /tf sinking at the close.  

When stuck in a range -- wait for 3 touches before committing -- fade the range on the 3rd touch.

Friday, November 2, 2012


fri  chop is usual.

/tf fades to lows of overnight --  PUKE candle 823ish.

looking for triple bottom or  wedge break and small double bottom to get long.

now 822

821.50 --   15 min  TL is around 819.     10:09 -- may bottom out

5/34  xover on /tf in the morning -- this is all you needed.

Patience -- the setup only comes 1 or 2x a day... so why frontrun?  Why do anything else?

Once again -- the charts and patterns will never ever lie to you or lead you astray.  Your emotions and hopes and opinions will - every time.

small double bottom  /tf   818.2 -- now needs a small mini db  or  triple bottom to establish base.

11:24  will be  1 hour from LoD -- needs time to heal / consolidate.

double mini bottom is in.    very early though...

and new lows...   without a base... it's hopeless.

tried to go long /cl   despite being under 99 MA -- fought the trend.  Main rule violated.

10:42  - low for /tf

/tf  forming  h/s bottom

So often -- I'm seeing trends fail at the major sup/res. areas  on the 15 min chart.   This needs to be a more critical part -- integrated into the trades.  IWM is breaking down - but that's obvious on the 15 min  20 day chart -- there's no support here, not even on the daily chart.

bot UCO / on  xover  5/34     26.40 was a double bottom on 15 min -- major support.  target would be all the way back to 27.60  for  $950.

got crushed -- buying UCO. 

/tf  5/34 xover signal after a triple bottom...  long  819.2   paper.

/tf  bump to 820.3 -- 99 MA and pullback.

/tf  pinned 820.   Dead money rest of day.

/zb -- the gap down on the data was filled  -- opened at clear support TLT -- almost complete move back to unchanged.  This is a new TRADE PATTERN.   Fading major gaps into a clear previous sup/resistance area on the 15 min / daily chart.

goal:  To hold for large swings into the 15 min  sup/resistance area.  The 15 min sup/res. areas are the only places to safely initiate trades.   They hit, then wait for a double/triple bottom to emerge so you are actually going with the flow.

/tf - 815 -- collapsing     advn-decn  -1000      iwm high was into the 50 day MA daily - and then collapse.

major damage now despite half IBD leaders green.

/tf down to 813 --- 99 MA signalling trend down day  (despite gap up).  

/cl  broke to last support area.  

The problem with failing traders --- they don't have a clear plan.  They have a partial plan, but not a complete mastery of it.  So they hesitate at the moment they need to act. And miss the best trade of the day.  Then they try to compensate by taking  a lesser trade, which leads to further failure which leads to hesitation the next time the proper entry unfolds.  

5/34 xover  /tf -- but under 99 MA,  no Puke Candle,  no clear TL.

/tf -- double bottoming  - testing LOD

813.8  long - 10tick stop  double bottom.   near end of day. NOPE.    99 MA is the guide.  On trend days, especially, you need an absolute SOLID countertrend pattern to get long.

aapl  to 577 --- this is a huge fade  over 3.235  --- clearly a lot of people in pain.   

did poorly: I should be taking much smaller size...

did not follow the 99 MA which was clear and present.

overtraded/revenge traded.

did not follow plan.

did not chech Higher Timeframe for real support areas.  (they broke anyway).

/tf -- closes near 810....   total trend down day.   The markets spiked into major resistance areas and then retraced entire  post-hurricane move.  The key was identifying an exhaustion move -- and then maintaining a stop that would never have been hit. 

The weak trader keeps looking for reversals when in fact, the correct move all day would be to ask, when can I safely add to this winning position? 

Thursday, November 1, 2012

thurs notes:

/tf -- topped out 10:30 - THEN took 2 hours -- created a triple top.   Entry on first break below 99 MA was good for 50 ticks.

3 bumps - - distribution formation before the selloffs.

/tf bottomed 13:24 - still has not been an hour -- still under 99 MA -- there's no long trade here.

/tf - bounce thru 99 MA and rejected -- as I suspected.  Although may keep running... but we're in a chop mode.  No major sup/res. area here around 821. 

-- /tf ripped back to close near highs -- Market Signals were Trend Up. 

Have to be willing to respect trend days. 

Monday, October 29, 2012


/tf gapping down --  hurricane closing at 9:15

But notice -- one of the rules I created was that when trading countertrend (for a bounce), the minimum time for a base to form is ONE HOUR.

/tf bottomed at 7:30 -- tried to rise and failed.

Now, at exactly 8:30 - data came out and we see -- a HUGE tail on HUGE volume.  And more importantly -- it's been 1 hour.

The market is now up 21 ticks from the low of the tail and rising.

This is a familiar, repeatable pattern.  And /tf hits 804 which was my target area.

So main rule to remember -- an hour is minimum time for a bounce to occur.  But still need to see long tail puke candle to mark a bottom.

Friday, October 26, 2012

FRIDAY patterns:

tf  lower overnight but clear pattern developed:  1 to 7 am was a 3 touch flat support line and right around 7 am -- a test back to 810 for 30 ticks.   This is the same basing pattern that takes place again and again. 

Market probes for value.    VPOC is 812 on 5 min candles so that would be possible target.

AAPL reported -- crashed but now green at premarket.

/es at 1400 --

it's opex friday - so usually no range for last 2 hours.

/cl also established TL from 2 - 6:45 am and then a fast move.

The establishment of TLs after a sharp move precedes almost all sizeable moves.

EXPE +17%

at 7:15 -- 99 MA got on bottom -- then 80 ticks up --- 34 MA held up never breached the whole way.

IWM  82.34 is 10 day MA  on daily -- so /tf could potentially spike much higher on bear rally.

820 /tf  seems very far away -- but would be below 10 day MA daily on IWM.  Must know what's possible.

819.3 is VAH on  5 min chart  /tf.  So that is certainly realistic.

/cl  broke out of DT on 5 min chart.   air pocket above if it runs.
5/34 xover on /tf   1 min chart - looking for a short here for 15 ticks vs. 9 stop. on p/b to 99 MA.

short  /6e  1.2954 -- double top  on bank news ...   stretched.  price seeking away from value

/6e  - working - short at resistance.   . closed for +19 ticks  near 99 MA cover.  That was a good trade.

faded the crowded -- but not early!    incredibly  /6e - now bouncing up -- caught it almost perfect.

You are LOOKING For Trend Lines / Patterns -- wait -- they keep appearing

/tf -- 100 tick swing -- almost touched morning b/o level -- IWM 80.9 ---  feels oversold but no pattern of interest yet.  no double bottom, no triple.   But looking for it.   No need to be early.

Market Signals weak,  /zb rising.  and no Pattern at lows = still stay short or stay cash.

/tf -  so small triple bottom forms and pop but only to 81 -- and immediately failing again.  I really traded TNA for .10 which was a miracle.   That pattern was TOO SMALL --

significant moves require bases of at least several hours.

Again, my PLAN needs the 99 MA to be going in the same direction.  If not, all you can hope for is scalps.

/tf   xover     IWM 81 -- probably pin area  --  Friday's act weird.   But this is where you could try for a countertrade  into the 99 MA at 810.3 -- almost there.    And target HIT.  AND ,  fades immediately - that was to the tick, again.

/tf  sinks to 804 --  99 MA showing the way.   Entering breakdowns of 3 touch bases (when 99 MA is going that way) is usually a good trade.   

804  - PUKE candle.  So looking for multi-hour base

QQQ touched 200 day MA -- so it could bounce and pick up rest of indices or else they all catch up.

Tip: If you are struggling, say your trading plan out loud.... if it's hard to say it, work on it until it's not.

sideways action is not the same as going up -- that's why there are signals to rely on to keep you from NOT trading.

/tf  basing here -- it's almost been 1 hour.    20 ticks above the Puke Candle to 804.  Still hasn't been a 3 touch TL which is required to get long.

/tf -- there is a 5/34 xover.    /tf  rises into 99 MA  807...  looks bouncy here.

the move from 806 to 818 required a SIX HOUR base.  So maybe a half hour base is good for a 10 tick rally.  That might be a good rule of thumb.  If you want a big move, you want big base (and I cannot lie).

AAPL did have a more distinct triple bottom -- entry on next 5/34 xover was good for a nice rip.

.tf did not

/tf  - wedge complete -- now bounce or b/down?   26 ticks possible - to bounce to last break down area.  But Market Signals weakening.

LONG SIGNAL - /tf    1:31

And YES! - /tf does indeed run 26 ticks from b/o level.  What would be more genius now - is if it faded right here.  806 to 808.60 

As soon as the 3rd touch was formed -- a decision was made to keep breaking down or bounce, since we were oversold on  Friday -- bounce was very likely.  (AAPL had already bounced). 

out for nearly 30 ticks.   +$675 paper trading total. 

99 MA is now supporting -- TREND IS UP -- on shortest timeframe  /tf   1:39

/tf  pushed toward 810 -- which was a more powerful magnet - now back to 808.9.  A squeeze of course so needs to pullback and gear up for a new move if it's going to keep running.  810 will probably be it -- opex.

804 low was close to 803.7 low from 5 days ago -- one could have assumed it would fail there.

If someone is afraid of trading, they may be afraid of uncertainty.  There is no cure since all trading is uncertain.  You could trade a small amount (you should) and set your stop.  Each trade is not make or break.  So what are you afraid of?  Great poker players fold the majority of their hands.   Losing is part of the game, why make losing a source of fear?   Each small loss gets you closer to the next win.

and /tf curling back down. 

5/34 xover  /tf -- but 99 MA underneath.  This is NOT a continuation of the downtrend.  We are in an uptrend on the 1 min chart (in my book) so in reality -- this dip toward the 99 MA is a buy.

Since it's confusing - best to not take it either way.    Now got a 5/34 xover  BUY. So chop area. Still forming a base.

sharp bounce off 99 MA -- keeps you on the right side of the force -- back to the resistance area 809

bounce off 99 Ma -- good for 30 ticks to 811 -- wow -- 99 MA really working. 

AAPL -- BREAKING DOWN  2:45.  That's it.

/tf  810.3 -- well no surprise --   opex  targeting even number pin.  So really hard to get excited.  Chop for next hour very very likely. 

tried to short /nq early -- just got stopped 3x -- it was pathetic trying to hit the top.

/tf    60 ticks from buy signal -- 80 from low.   Hard part would have been holding it.

/es  /nq -- highs  both went green.  Hammer day.   

/nq - now 5/34 xover

/nq - dropped to 99 MA   recoverd half -- there is a huge price to pay for being early though.

/tf   810 -- PIN.   No surprise.  The overshoot to 812 was free money after the double top with tall tails on the 1 min chart -- that was a responsive trade.

spy/nq mostly flat ..  /tf rising AH -- -/45% --  outlier needs to catch up.  So pin doesn't hold.   812ish.

Respecting the 99 MA is a good idea -- never looked back after botttoming.

What I did well: focused on slightly fewer stocks.  Was patient.

What didn't I do:  Needed to hold the winners longer -- hold for target - or raise stop and let them run.

+$595 paper trading is respectable, should have been better.  But certainly shows progress.

What did I learn?  Markets can bounce sharply and if you see it, there's no need to settle for partial profits for being 100% right.  Ride as much as the wave to resistance as possible.  There will always be multiple signals before bottoms are made.  

Also realized how important long tails are -- often, quite often appearing at the bottom.  Use them, wait for them when considering a bottom formation. 

Thursday, October 25, 2012


I put in a paper trade long /cl  - because there was a clear TL sloping up.

Set a order to OCO at 86.58 -- and it was the top by 4 ticks --  now 86.39 -- for 78 tick overnight move.  The stop was just 9 ticks away.

Also got stopped on /tf overnight for -8 ticks.

Funny how when things are going so badly, the next trade ends up being the best one in weeks.

I am not focusing on /tf closely enough.

/tf  topped out at 817.8 -- just short of the 818 resistance area.    No surprise.

noticing how there's always some kind of symmetrical pattern - either clear 3 touch or 2 touch before each and every powerful move in either direction -- /zb, /cl, /tf -- on almost every market.

/cl broke wedge and went 40 ticks to new o/n high.

5 min chart -- shows 99 MA firmly supporting each bounce.

strong market signals.   with /zb sharply down o/n.

/cl up 1%,  /gc up -- looks like another commodity day.

entire  IBD leader list is green premarket...

/zb  - double bottom  so may not be going down anymore today.    

DDD is hot IBD stock of the day.   beat, raised guidance. 

AKAM  +9% 

8:30 data -- /tf  appears to have 30 tick swing in 3 seconds on data  --

/tf  815.80 - sharp drop on data.

daily charts are all in confirmed downtrend.   IWM  moving to 200 day MA.  Bear rallies can be fierce.

/cl - drops to the TL   86.20 -  good entry?   maybe on 5/34 xover?   support - but breached.   Market Signals weakening.

/6e in dt,   /cl  now in dt?    99 ma on top.   sell rips....

very strong Market Signals.  market up .7%  premarket.    TLT, VXX red.

/tf  at 818.4  - R1.     Should have expected that.    No signs of weakness.

/cl - had a perfect entry - but again, the tight stops are killers -- have to give it the room.  Lose more on these stops than bad trades.

/tf  818.6 -- now p/b.  99 ma showing the way.

/tf  821  at the bell -- then gap filling action  now 814.50 --  had to be willing to fade strength.  The very last thing most traders would want to do.  At double top resistance.

/tf  trying - but maybe bearish wedge? 

because today was a gap up in  a bear market -- it was correct to preemptively short resistance.

yes /tf - bearish wedge -- down to 813 from 821 -- gap fill almost complete IWM.

possible bounce /tf  813.8 broke DT.

now 813.   Still dropping.

Gap up days have different moves.   /tf  is still up .15%  despite 80 tick drop!

81.25 IWM -- gap fill?  5 cents left

/cl  -- SYMMETRICAL  TRIPLE TOP - AGAIN - BEFORE plunge and break of TL.

euro dying -- can't get long until there's a PATTERN.

PATTERNS form before moves.   Almost always.

11:15 am -- dead time now.   All the big moves are over.   30 ticks up, 110 ticks down.  /tf.

/cl  3 bump TL - break-- now good for 100 ticks.   

TLT  / /zb  gapped down to the open from 5 days ago - then bounced a point.

It's all about entering at the major sup/res. areas -- just waiting for a green light after the touch.

Best traders I know tend to make fast decisions.  They are really good at holding winners.  They tend to do the very opposite of what the market is doing during entries!  Hmm.  Maybe that's why they win.  They are way ahead of the crowd.  They are fading the crowd most of the time. 

buy signal  /cl  5/34 xover.  /zb  --   putting in a top...

market still really weak.  What's the crowd doing?  trying to buy a dip?

/tf new lows   99 MA - WORKS on a trend day.

chop and chop again AH.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

WED. notes.

rally until 3 am -- data killed the markets -- or at least OIL.

/tf gave back to 815ish -- this is a value area.

FB +18%  wow.

AAPL  .76%

Some strength here.

long /cl on 5/34 xover after break and double bottom.

/cl -- moved up right away.  Good sign.  Stop raised.  MAs are bullishly aligned.

/tf  xover signal at 7:48  moved up 20 ticks still going...

FB +21%  -- Market Signals are quite strong... 

BA, PNRA, REGN, LNKD,  most of the Dow looks solid.

euro popped up.  /zb dropping fast.      Trend uppish kind of day.  Shorts on notice.

/cl  triple bottom -- small timeframe -- long tails.  And stopped for -1 tick.  Ah  was up 15.   This is why I hate /cl.  Always destroying patterns.  Paper trade anyway -- seems like it's impossible to catch those big moves.

At least I'm not shorting FB  like 2 tweets I saw.   +26.77%  now.  CRUSHED.

bearish 5/34  xver  /tf  now.  Today may be more rangebound.  99 MA trending up -- so this is not in a short term downtrend.   More like 99 MA test at 815.7

If FB shorts had heeded my -- don't short why 99 is beneath, they wouldn't be short... yet.

It's not rocket science, but it is discipline and patience.

When 99 MA is flat -- it's chop mode....  so what can you do? 

815.80 -- BOUNCE - for 10 ticks -- called it pretty close!

market popped  817.7   (818.40 target)

/zb  to 147.10  which was double bottom.

euro touched 1.299

/tf  818.1  -- 3 ticks away from double top.  Has to hit now...

818.40 -- and pullback instantly.

IWM - gap filll touch - -pullback 30 ticks to fill gap open.

long /tf  double bottom 812.20   10 t  stop:

stopped out - this was against my system....   lol.

99 MA on top -- trend down.

and /tf  sinks to 810 --  80 ticks off high....

Puke Candle at 809 /tf  -- and wide range candle... bounce?

/cl above 99 ma

/tf  -- trending up all morning - creating a clear TL -- touched 818.40 -- gap fill.... spike on the open then drop below the TL with 5/34 xover -- and that was the entry for 90 ticks.    TL + xover + 99 MA break..  + resistance area touched.  Combination of multiple signals.

The drop ended with the widest 1 min candle of the day on heavy vol.

It's not the xover -- What you really want to see is a TL formation -- this dictates the line of control.  Then you can enter with clear stop area.

/tf - after bottoming - creates a 3 bump TL -- bounces.   Market Signals were confirming -- was clearly going to move up from TL.  Now extended off TL.    813.6

since 99 MA on top -- we must assume all /tf bounces are going to fade away -- bears in control on1 min timeframe.

/tf - back to this countertrend trendline touch.  4th touch  812.3
paper short the break of the TL:  811.80  - this is a continuation trade.  5/34 bearish xover too.

and fake b/down

although  technically - looks like the TL was drawn incorrectly.    3 touch valid still.

/tf -- clear TL formed -- but now clear breach -- and 10 tick drop.  Had to be very clear on drawing the TL.

99 MA is trending down -- so correct to look for shorts, not longs.

/tf:  this is just a continuation from the bounce off lows -- so maybe beyond the LoD?  that would be target.

/cl  is weak  and 99 ma turned down -- no reason to go long  -- but many try...

/tf -- reverse double bottom at b/down level - and continuing path of 99 MA, sloping down.

99 MA -- keeps you focus -- cuz there are too many wiggles to tempt you to countertrade.

/tf  formed a small triple bottom near 810  then  5/34 xover --  Signal 3:  Divergence :   now

99 on bottom on the chop day.  But now -- dip buying ONLY.   Bulls in charge.  12:40

/cl  PUKE candle at 84.94 --  30 tick bounce....    5/34 xover.  No 3 bump pattern.

/cl -- ends up running 90 ticks after PUKE candle.  best entry is the point of max pain.  always.

Ended up making  a 5/34 xover and forming small TL before running (for 50 ticks off base)

So on a chop day:  can safely ignore  99 MA -- won't matter as market keeps crossing back forth.

triple and double bottoms and TLs will hold weight -- entries at sup/resist. willwork. (i.e.: responsive trading)

So essentially 5/34 xover going against the 99 MA requires a TL, double bottom or triple bottom to confirm entry.  above it does not.  (straight TL break is good).

small b/o  /tf  812.4  before FOMC meeting --  99 ma below -- bulls in charge short term timeframe.

Mixied market signals.

/cl  now has 99 ma  below -- bulls in charge.

long /cl  paper  85.70  on 99 ma test.   trending up wedge b/o - bulls in charge:   10ticks out.

fomc in 15 minutes...

/tf  folding down  but  /cl  -- is now uptrending with 99 ma below....    

at 3 pm  /tf   99 ma got on top -- then it was just a matter of entering at the top ofthe descending TL. with tight stop.

/tf  - perfect double bottom 809.2 -- then 15 tick bounce.  Symmetry entry pays.

/tf sinking to lows...   double top in the morning and 90 ticks to end the day.

basically 3 areas to enter /tf -- the double top at the open - andh then entry on xover, then triple bottom for 20 ticks... then long wait for descending TL  -- 99 MA gets on top - and short at TL for 30 ticks.

looking for symmetry (support) and MA confirmation.

99 MA is good but must wait for trending market.  Today's chop required more patience and a lot less reward.

/tf bounces to 811.70 at the close...  simply tested the lows, caught stops and ran.  Entries at the edges works well in chop days.

Must determine the kind of day -- then it's clear which trades will work.