Thursday, August 22, 2013

Trend Day

Set up was premarket and entry at open

Already had a TL break + backtest with huge ADr  reading at open to confirm - get long -- and the fast break means - stay with it.

/tf: trend day with 5/34 xover premarket, strong ADr

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Moving On.

I will soon be rejoining the world and ending my fulltime daytrading life.

I must say I'm looking forward to it.  The sole pursuit of money/profits has been slowing digging a hole in my soul.  But I will have summers off to work on the game full-time. 

Good luck to you and your trading.  If I've helped one person in some way, it was worth my time writing my thoughts.

Fear of Being Wrong.

This can be a devastating problem.

If you fear being wrong, you will almost certainly do two things.

1) take profits too early all the time
2) hold losers too long to avoid admitting losses.
3) not take a clear pattern entry because it might lose

This is a psychological issue.  You are afraid deep down of being wrong.  Because in your mindset, every loser is an admission of failure.  But we know that failing regularly is part of trading. 

Traders make money over time.  The win percentage may vary but no matter how a person trades, each individual trade is mostly meaningless unless we give it power. 

Fear of being wrong means every trade is viewed as another final exam of whether we are smarter than the market.

Being smart is not an asset, it's a liability. 

The best trader sticks to a process and takes the small losses. 

But how does one overcome obsession fear of failure?

The first step:

1) Reduce size to reduce fear.

You have to do your trading plan without any fear so do it with smaller size.  You need to win and boost your confidence but more importantly, develop the identity of a CP trader.  If you don't think you can succeed, you won't.  So start with a small win.

2) Review each trade.  Look back and see where you started feeling anxious. Then, when you are actually making a trade, you can identify the moment of anxiety and take a new action.  Stand up from your chair, talk to yourself out loud about how you feel.  Remind yourself that the anxiety is just an emotion that you can control.   You cannot change a habit until you can identify it when it is happening and break the routine with a new action.

3) Breathe.  I wouldn't be surprised if many traders exhibit a lot of physical tension during these moments.  Physically relaxing your body will help you mind shift.  You don't need to eliminate the anxiety, you just need to change your behavior and not fall back on old patterns (taking profits too quick, not taking losses). 

This is just a brief beginning.  But first, you have to be honest with what's holding you back.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Habits. Aug 19


Good trading comes down to good habits.   Planning, careful execution, study, careful review/analysis.

Some traders probably prefer some of the job over other parts.  And obviously, some traders are just jazzed by the thrill of gambling, not the daunting grunt work of the process.

One has to be honest with oneself regarding the work and one's habits.  Just showing up isn't enough to achieve CP.

And on top of all that is the self-control to execute religiously.  Trading requires us to perform at the top of our abilities every single day.  Most jobs do not require 100% concentration, 100% of the time.  Hardly.  Most jobs don't even require us to actively use our brains all day.

Wanting to succeed is not the same as willingness to work hard to succeed.

If this sound familiar, it's time to commit to small changes to improve habits, and performance will follow.  But it takes time and commitment and not everyone want to make the sacrifice.


aug 19.

/tf  -.21%  to 1019.

strong: fb, tsla, ddd.   AAPL

weak:  grpn, trla, z  ocn, /cl

$namo -60...  amzn down 5 days in a row... light vol. in Aug.

/tf - flips green 8:50 am

oversold here... may be low vol squeeze to start.

/tf flat.

wedge  now  10:22

/nq  .93   despite ADn -900+


Remember: Your rules don't protect you from the market, they protect you from yourself.

short  /nq  triple touch,   ADn -1000+,   negative vol.     vix green,    xhb, xlf, iyt red.

/tf -- and I saw it real time -- synched into a dTL -- and dropped to a triple bottom...

ADr -300 and dropping.
ADn -1400

ADn  -1500   severe -- big shift -- market would have bounced long before this weeks ago -- sentiment has broken on Taper.

/nq  dTL broken -- could squeeze...?

AD -1600 --    no reason to fear being 'part of the herd' -- it's only at the ends is it dangerous... in the middle of the herd, the worst thing to do is face the opposite direction.

IWM -  just touches 50 day MA today...

meanwhile... xhb   below 200 day MA.
xlf below 50.

Difficult to hold a winner.  Why?  Threat of giving back a small profit overwhelms the process of staying in a trade that is working.

Today - correct play was worth around 70 ticks.


/tf 1012.3...110 ticks high to low intraday....

All you had to do was wait for TL to be clear... and then everyone saw it.

What is difficult about holding a winner?  Is it not trusting yourself?  The process?  Where does you mind break with what you know is the plan?  How can you break the wrong habit?

Friday, August 16, 2013

Aug 16 Fri.

Triple bottom   8:15

strong premarket:

green: FB, tsla, gmcr, ddd, aig, z cree, afcp, pcln, amzn qihu litb lnkd blox xin arii appl avg

IBD - market in correction. ..  thanksfor the tip.  -225 dow day wasn't obvious.

ADr   -- can't get positive...   breaks over 25 min OR and fails...  

bear market  = need proof to take longs.

market in correction:

Fri opex -- taking  responsive fades --   double top short 1028.5    8t stop.

ADr  219 --  pushing.

3rd touch establishes a line - if Market Signals are improving in same direction -- that's the entry.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Aug 15>

-1% o/n - /tf  to 1035 -- below last major support level on hourly chart.

Major break in sentiment occurring.  Still no bottom.

fb, tsla, aig, cree, grpn, down.

/tf worst index. 

/es also at 1672 -- bottom of hourly support  --  

NTES strong on er beat.

/tf looks like  huge head/shoulder pattern completed -- no either bounce back or start of major correction.

1035 bounce?

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Aug 14

/tf  -.28  1047 -- TL down.

1049 -- back to TL touch at 9 am.

aapl  1.11% on iCahn fever.

short -- symmetrical triple touch.

and -- of course -- attempting to trade premarket is failure... don't do it.

gap fill  1050.5 -- and reverse....   have to expect that.

OLED -- strong.

once again 4:37 am --  /tf low  o/n -- and day could be over at 9:29

grinding day -- frustrating if you didn't short the open.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Aug 13:

/tf gap up .25%  to 1054...

5/34 xover - still in place.

perfect   head/shoulders top on /tf --  topped out  at 1057   -- same as 7/22 to the tick -- so this pattern may be noticeable.

strong:  nq, sina, xone, litb, ssys, tsla, xin, peri.

long tf  on  5/34 xover 1 min candles  and triple touch TL now in place. 

Will it work being 17 min. off LoD?

And stopped at new low...   So ...

viewing thru 5 min candles... chopping at the lows -- accepting value down here.

ADr -911 is telling.
ADn -1200

strong:  IMOS, XIN

/tf --   triple bottom on 5 min chart - then 50 tick bounce.    now midday chop... pointless.

and /tf --  70t bounce back to nearly yesterday's close -- triple bottom then double bottoms --

Monday, August 12, 2013

Mon chart

tf - gap down o/n so the best entry was premarket after a MAJOR SUPPORT level touched o/n.

China data strong.  Pushes market all the way to push past MAJOR RESISTANCE at end of day.
IBD names led the way.

/tf o/n gap fill and push beyond. Starting with major support touch

Friday, August 9, 2013

Friday Opex

Rangebound market means entering near  sup/res. with a confirmation of a TL or TL break.

As usual -- you should be done by 1 pm.  Keeping a watch on higher timeframe lets you know where to start getting interested.

opex: coast to coast on /tf

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Aug 8

Gap up to start the day -- with strong IBD names   huge 1412 ADr at the open.

But the game is the game.

And the system is the system.

14 minutes into the day -- the 10 min OR breaks to the downside.  The AD line is sliding and the previous close calls out...

There's a second bump but the 10 min OR acts as first entry and then you can follow the 34 ma down... 

the gap does fill and now it's easy to trail a stop.

Internals are extremely strong so once the stop is hit, it's time to enter long on the first chance...

Given the strong internals, there's no need to wait one hour, however we need to establish a TL to confirm at 11:20 -- about 40 mins. off low of day -- so still nearly an hour.

Then market climbs back -- we're looking for 20 - 30t max because we're countertrend trading below the 10 min OR -- and we easily get that and a more lax stop might capture up to 40ticks.

/tf: gap fill open - successful. Then TL entry back to 10 min OR

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Aug 7 chart

10 min OR break pays today.

Then long time for a TL to grab another 20 ticks.

/tf: 10 min OR break with -800 ADr pays easy

Aug 7 Wed.

/tf   -.16

may be rangebound consolidation after large move yesterday?

SNTS -- the co. that never quits   8% pm.

solars down big.

Z, GPOR weak.

/tf  -.34


So  nailed the opening mostly -- got the 10 min OR break -- for 31 ticks...  then gave back 13 on non-plan trading.

Like 1 min candles for the first hour -- saw the clear top above the 10 min OR.

short /tf --

under 10 min OR
market signal break
triple touch pattern.

ADr  -862 breaking lower...

Is everything lined up?

Yes -- and out at 1042

37 ticks on the day -- despite a 13 tick dumb trade.


/nq  at 3108.75 -- at   61.8% intraday fib  and near  10 min OR low.

12:30 pm -   5/34 xover on /nq -- causing a short cover rally.  <--- can="" emerges.="" new="" p="" pattern="" reshort="" t="" until="">
market signals turning down   1:50

/nq - top of 10 min OR --  

ADn  -1200 -- is irrelevant  to Price Action first. 

all /tf  did after drop was establish a TL to bounce from.

bot SQQQ -- TOP of hourly channel -- responsive  with   ADn -1000

5/34 xover -- keeps you on the right side of the trade -- it will mean later entries but it will pay by not taking early shorts.

/nq  fully above 10 min OR -- bulls in control. 

can't make up new rules.

the 5/34 xover - - will keep you on the right side of the trend  MOST of the time.   But enough to be CP.

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Aug 6 - Tues.

futures flattish.

KORS - up big on ER.

/nq -- won't drop to bottom of ch.  -- working across -- correction via time....

futs. slightly red. 

penny stocks jumping...    it's no rules again.

long tf 1057.7 -- triple touch of major TL.     premarket still.  

and market plummets...

10 min OR -- break to downside entry -- killed it.

Have to be automatic -- or else, you end up unable to participate.

Can't get long now, until 1 hour base forms....

ADr  -1300

may trend down all day.

long /tf    55 min from low of day  1050.6

problem:  Not consistent enough -- changing my strategies too often.

exit  1052.4 --  38% fib retrace -- high to low today

ADr improving to -1179  at 12pm

rumors of tapering....

/tf   climbing out of the hole slightly

ADr  -1119  --   just covering...    sellers still too strong.

short  /nq  3116  -- triple touch -- TL established down ---   ADn  -1000+  go with trend.

/tf 1050 -- value...

taper talk is only thing market cares about....

ADr -1066 

strong:  fltx, klic, fldm, regi, imos, edap, away, ocn

Had to take the 10 min OR - considering the setup, and the first print of ADr  ADn --

Monday, August 5, 2013

Aug 5 Chart -- rangebound.

Tough day -

Big picture:  market in uptrend
medium:  extended

One chance today -- taking the TL break + small double p/b  --

Stay long above 10 min OR.

/tf: bubble bull market continues - take the breaks

Aug 5 - Monday.How High Can You Jump?

Flat o/n -

/nq - extended  and top of channel...

could drop 15 pts easy to bottom of uptrend.

eurozone PMI expands...

FB, PCLN targets raised...
AAPL strong on patent news...

/cl - just about a 50% retrace from high to low run - last week.

/cl - perfect touch - 50% fib.

/tf -  on Fri. close.
/cl - bounce to cover and now puke candle - dropping it back to 50% fib level...   no support, no triple bottom in place.

note:  /nq chart is very 'smooth'  whereas  /tf  /es  extremely choppy lately -- may be easier to stick with /nq patterns as less prone to noise.

3126 is 50% retrace ---  Fri low to o/n high this morning -- would be interesting if it touched and ended up being the low.   9:14 am

ADn -800   trending lower...

adn -725 -- 
IBD leaders powerful  but already 10:25 and still weak.

/nq - pushes to unch.   Fri close -- 

advr  -68     may just push through

trla, scty, z, fltx --       squeezing  everyone.

/nq  green  with adn -500

/tf -- Through top --  Fri high.....

ad flat.

once /tf broke 5 min TL -- and settles above 10 min OR -- have to go with uptrend.

/nq - takes out   highs 3140  with negative AD.

triple top channel formed (new channel)

AMBA -- through 50 day MA - -stophunt -- now below --   curious.

/nq -- RED....  clearly the better short.

must recognize - divergence---    /nq was the correct one to look for a triple top...

/tf - bull flag -- triple top

adr +178   This is not a short with strong IBD leadership.

ADr  flat...       best trade of the day is over now....

/tf -  above 10 min OR    AND     advrld +70   and IBD names strong  == shorts gonna lose.

/tf - pushes to the highs at the close


adrld  +341

Friday, August 2, 2013

Aug 2 opex chart

Friday -- always difficult, usually range bound and today was no exception  with /tf -- closing essentially right on unchanged.

/tf - had to be patient -- the TL was finally established at 2:30 pm and then -- was OVER by 2:40 and that was pretty much for 20 ticks....

So as expected... minimal opportunity unless your plan is different.

/tf: rangebound Friday as expected

side by side with 30 min candles shows how today's low made perfect sense -- merely a touch of the developing TL.

Aug 2.

/nq spikes to  .44%  gain  despite negative  ad.

now a 5 min reversal red candle - marks easy R:R. on the divergence. 

shorted  the spike after 5 min reversal...

1) rangebound day
2) ad  negative
3) IBD list half red - many momo taking a breather.

leaders are now hugely momo names -- YELP, LNKD, YY, MELI, WWWW, NGVC, SCTY

not healthy.

closed at highs  /nq