Monday, December 31, 2012

Mon. Dec 31

Just another Monday.

/tf  - already rising to first fib level retrace.  and HIT.   828.1

50% fib is 829.50   --- next target. 

starting to accelerate premarket. 

fiscal cliff probably passes... and we get megarally.

and 829.50  HIT.    that was easy.

831 is 61.8% fib.   

/YM - long tail -- this was a PERFECT TOUCH at the 50% retrace line.  Look at this chart

/ym  the power of fib retracement levels


/tf  passes 831.   premarket.   Deal must be on.

and retrace starting.

For 2013:


 Just something to think about.

So  /tf hit 61.8 and retraced back to 50%  -- that's pretty typical.

AAPL strong.....

/tf:  double top  at 61.8 fib -- and back down.   
/tf  - stuck at 50% fib.  

/tf  834 -- blast off.    looking for full rainbow now  835.70.

AAPL 2.5%       squeeze action.

advn-decn +1100    not a day to short without clear triple top.

AAPL  +17  on fire...

IWM broke TL -- may consolidate and really hit new highs end of day -- dangerous day to fade.

/tf    837.8 -  consolidating  ..  advn-decn over 1000+   drift up?

1465 advn-decn  /tf -- rush to 841  booooooom!

/zb  -- sinking  / confirming action.

advn-decn +1600   crushed it.

/tf  fast reversal after surge. 

/zb -- new lows -- we're not dropping today.  No sir.

/tf - double top - drop on Obama speech.   /zb new lows....

grind up Trend Day in my book.  Seen this so many times.

advn-decn 1684 --   MASSIVE POWER on buy side.   Going into new year....  nobody wants to be short and have to hold thru New Year and 1st day of year surge.

Market Signals -- clearly showing Trend Up - -no surprise as /tf grinds past 843   (844 target now)

advn-decn  +1800 now....

watch out for these  'outside standard deviation days' -- you 'll make 90% of your huge gains on 10% of the days.  The weird days are the ones to watch.

844 prints  - - 3 PM !

past 845    tick  1100 plus --        Major Day.

5 min - long tail prints  --   845ish -- TOP ?   /tf????     single indicator - not reliable.

yep - -the 5 min doji candle is High of day...  walking it back down now...

advn  +2000   might be epic AH movement too.

+2153  advn-decn -- HIGH -- unstable at this level but .... when isn't it?

/es  surge to 1425 ah.  
/tf new highs ah.

advn-decn nearly 2200.   Never ever fade signals like that -- only buy dips.

Big Signals mean - hold the winners  -- look for the big days and capitalize.  They come around more often than you think. 

Friday, December 28, 2012

Fri. 28th

Heavy selling

advn-decn:  -1442,  -1582   OUCH.  look out.

advn decn 1502 - improving a bit...

very weak signals...

short /tf on wedge break after gap fill...  technical move can take it to 824....  

advn-decn back to lows with weak TICK.

don't forget:  slow choppy days -- must be more responsive.  This wedge break 'confirmation' may fail -- more likely to be rangebound.

/tf  currently at 50%  fib level from yesterday's range -- indecisive.

stopped out -- paper  /tf short.    chop indeed means -- responsive trades only.

/tf 834    advn-decn 1174 --   won't drop.   INVN hits 11.00

/tf -- and it rips above O/N highs on some news....     advn-decn -347

/tf pullback -- slow day.   some news with fiscal cliff keeps /tf green.

IWM  may just pin at 83 which means we're already done for the day.   Best opportunity is over.

/tf  triple top  5 min candles -- flush?   at 12:44

clear triple top -- leads to the easy fall /tf --   831.50 is target ..... now 832...  see if it hits -- the 50% fib level is target.

-900 advn-decn  as Obama talk starts....   not great but 3 pm -- algos can take control on low vol.

/tf  exactly unch.   exactly at 61.8 fib, too.   funny.

/tf  sinks on no deal news... -1100 advn-decn.   830 broke...
es - full rainbow 1396   --  does it keep going????

Tf goes below 8 am  lows --  long tail - picks off stops.... bounce.  lol.  Nasty.

/es dumps AH -- stops ripped out.

INVN closes green.   Follow strength.

/tf - dumps below 0 fib - /es breaks down.

NOTE:  High of Day can often be anticipated by always looking at Market with a Higher Timeframe (see chart)

/tf makes a 3rd Touch before finally plummeting end of day

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Thurs Dec 27

fiscal cliff fears;

/tf  +/13%

DECK   blasted off  +7%  -- finally

DECK has  a lot of call buying at the offer --   big name is buying.  

advn-decn -900  ....

/tf blasted.

long tail  candle here though 5 min.

need more of a base -- too much damage, signals too weak for a sharp bounce entry.

long tail negated - new lows.

-1031 advn-decn.     fear...

stall but -1075  advn-decn  suggests - break to downside.

difficult to look for fib bounce with heavy sell signals.

-1200 advn-decn -- keeps you out of longs....

advn-decn -1300  no buyers.  no base to work with. 

-1400 advn-decn --  heavy TICK.   doesn't take a genius to see which way the winds blowing today.

see a lot of bottom fishing longs... but these early longs are exactly why the pullback keeps pulling... the last sellers are the most bullish... see?

-1600  advn-decn

/es  drops 1400.  
Dow under 13,000.

-1649 advn-decn   /tf 825   harsh.   -1.2%
Dow -137

broke 5 min  TL --   advn-decn - slight improvement -- could be a 50% intraday bounce -- which would be around 50 ticks today.

TICK improving.

if we bounce  (after 4 days down) -- will require a multi-hour base at least still early, but bottom may be in.

sold  /tf for 15 ticks paper.  -- first fib level.

/tf - bounce was to 38% fib level (2nd fib) to the tick - and fast pullback  - perfect if you use fibs.

bounce  end of day -- back to breakeven -- was out...    triple bottom before the ramp on 5 min chart -- clear as day.   Top was the 78.6% fib -- to the tick.  Talk about fib levels!

advn-decn - almost at ZERO  from -1600 lows... !!!

Triple Bottoms are still major strong signals and are worth entering.  

/tf  slight pb   AH to 61.8 fiblevel.    833

/tf: fiscal cliff rumor create dive and rainbow rally

Friday, December 21, 2012

Fri Dec. 21

Quad opex day.

Rules are different.  Expecting tighter range and last hour to be very slow on the pin.

Plus last night's flash crash has shaken up the landscape... so the rules will be completely different... which means a trader used to doing business a particular way should probably be extra cautious.

already see  /cl is flipping around with huge tailed 5 min candles -- clearly chopping up stop orders.

What are other traders thinking?

They are probably nervous and somewhat bearish after the big drop... but the time to short was last night.

/6e - breaks TL   9:20   1.32 -- MM lower here?

advn-decn -2000 !!!!!!!!!!!!   extreme

/tf -- bounce  over  o/n highs --  30 tick move from 5 min TL breakout at 839

stops must be based on 5 min charts -- can't drop it to 'protect' gains -- will end up losing on wicks.

highs/lows may be in after first hour.  Sandbox chop for 6 hours now? 

/tf  bounce to 845 -- this is 50% retrace from ystdy highs to morning lows....    balanced now.

That was it -- either you made money or you didn't.  Rest of the day is crumbs.

846.6  is 61.8% fib.

/gc  green -- 100 tick move. 

Follow relative strength.

/tf 844 is 50% retrace -- balanced.

enter /tf break and you're done early

/tf drops back to 38% fib....   see if it holds.

long /tf  after 38 fib touch.   7 tick stop.

advn-decn -1650  market rolling back down.

Get in on the 5 min TL as they develop.

This is a Trend Down Day.  Or is it?

So slow grind -- opex day usually not trend down.  But entire Watch List is red.

Sold INVN for chump change.

Key:   Know what timeframe your comfortable with.   If you're looking for multihour trends intraday -- 5 min. candles might be best.  1 min candles may only serve to create too much noise.   But if you are scalping 5 or 10 ticks... you obviously need 1 min.

multiday -- you're looking at 15 min candles and daily charts.

If you're trading for intraday moves and keep taking 10 tick profits early... you are trading in the wrong timeframe. 

 bot /tf  843  on b/o of 5 min TL -- got 12 ticks instantly on push to 844.6  50% fib line (IWM at 84) - obvious target.    Perfect read/entry and trade.

INVN -- to 11.10 -- patience required is all.

/tf  - up to 845  but long tail building --  now 844.5 -- 50% fib touch again.    IWM 84 .... no surprise.

now big retrace -- having that fib target got you OUT responsively -- waiting for confirmation means giving back nearly 10 ticks.

I sold some INVN at 11.09

opex close pin. 

not much else to do.   Follow the trading pattern that you can live with. 

/tf - whew  close at 847  -- extra burst  takes it back to the 61.8% fib  -- taking out stops... /es also double top at the close.   basically - you should be trading from 9 to 10:30 then break until about 2:30 and see if there's opportunity at the close.    don't need to be here all day - -just get the move and then get away from the screen.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Thurs. Dec. 20

/tf 845 to start -- bounce now p/b

data at 8:30 and 10:30 today.  Watch for that.

/cl   - nice 60 tick move from 5 am start.

/6e bounced back up.

/gc - CRUSHED.   some kind of liquidation.  Why I never trade this -- acts crazy and then no reversion to the mean.

/cl -- fast 70 tick swings.

/tf - drop / bounce to new highs

IWM - very extended on daily --  no support up here, but in an uptrend... lots of indecision = wild swings.  Therefore: pays to be responsive.

note: Nearly all successful traders I know trade ONE MARKET.  Or at the very least, one market at a time, then possibly switch to another one and FOCUS exclusively.  Nearly all failed traders flit around, trading several markets simultaneously, thinking one or the other will offer a better reward.  It's much more 'exciting' to trade this way.  Excitement and consistent profitability are mutually exclusive.   So figure out what you want fast.

/gc - note  3 bump bottom finally after touching 1647.   See if it holds all day.

market weak.

advn-decn  negative.

/es - tech.   touched o/n lows -- ramped to o/n highs -- to the tick.   In the box now.

wild moves -- shows indecision. 

advn-decn +600     strong underlying bid despite a lot of red from tech. leaders.   confusing.

Good housing data came out.  Financials/utilities ??? are the leaders.    /tf  pushing to new highs....

sp  green  / dow, naz red -- so tricky day but still managed to get really small moves on TZA  2x!  for small small profit.  

Have to be willing to take responsive entries when you see this scenario.

fighting the flow -- some kind of bad habit.... I don't get it.  Ignoring what you see...

The price for overthinking is expensive.

/tf   851.2  surging on advn-decn  +800 internals...

ewi, ewp  up 8 days in a row.  Funds pushing for the highs to close the year on low volume.

end of year holiday week -- rules are different.   Bulls in control  (except for stocks I like).

/es - double top to new highs... duh -- internals were obvious.  Can't short.

/tf - close at highs ---  

need to rethink everything.

5 min timeframe seems better suited.... I can't be flipping for peanuts.   Need to see the big targets and hold for them.

/tf lines of support clear on 5 min candles

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Wed Dec. 19.

note: If you start your trading decisions with "I think... "   you are already making a mistake.  Who cares what you think?

If you start with "I see that... "  then you are basing your decision on what you observe.

Your thinking will often go against what you observe.  So stick to what you can see.  You don't need to spend much time thinking or worrying.  Or being happy.  Just keep looking.

I see we are in a roaring uptrend.

/6e  over 1.33

/cl over 89

FDX up on ER.

FB strong.

housing data at 8:30 -- so have to wait and see the reaction.

Europe was strong overnight.

/tf still under 846.   Housing data did little.

AAPL red.

/tf -- break above o/n high   at 9:17    846.6   <----- nbsp="nbsp" of="of" or="or" p="p" range="range" top="top" trend="trend" up="up">
5 min  /tf candle here -- turning into REVERSAL

short /tf -- on 5 min long tail candle -- which formed a double top.   risk: 12 ticks.  If I'm correct, should take no heat.

/zb -- up off lows -- confirming pullback.

/tf  drops at open -- no touch of o/n lows.    balanced...   /zb strong.   looks like p/b

advn-decn  +183   soft. not terrible

Big day yesterday ... chop day today?

advn-decn  near zero --  this is not going to be a trendy day.  PERIOD.

/tf -- big swing back after touching  o/n low - double bottom then 20 tick bounce.  Still bouncing

/tf  - swing back to 846.2 -- wow .   all the way.

/tf  847.50 -- burns shorts in flames at 11:06

/tf 848 - and long tail doji -- reversal?

advn-decn +600 strong

/tf double top  new highs ... blam!

850.3 high -- pullback to 846  (first fib)

/tf inside value area -- so just going to fake breaking.... take out trend following traders on reversals.

/tf big move (again) after test of lows in first 1/2 hour.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Tuesday Dec 18:

got short /tf on 5 min long tail candle at 8:35 est.

and covered for 17 ticks near  gap close.  Prior to that 5 min candle , /tf had made 3 touches at 836 -- establishing clear resistance.

Nat. gas strongest market.

May want to look at XCO, DVN, APA

/tf  touched a fiblevel at open -- now pushing to the 836 barrier.   STRONG STRONG  signals.

entry after fib-touch lead to 100 tick Trend Up day.

836 touch. 

10 am housing data in 3 min:

nearly 838 --  /tf is a pig today --

RAX, GMCR, FOSL, AMZN,  leaders.

nat gas  names pushing. 

TROX another 10%f

advn-decn +1000  runaway train.

+1153 --  5-sigma day?    this is going to be huge.    Dow only +50 still.

/tf  new resistance is 841.70ish. 

+1300 advn-decn -- MONSTER day.   shorts that don't recognize what's going on are being destroyed.  You NEVER get SHORT early on a day like today -- if at all. 

advn-decn - slides to 1200....  /tf  841.2 high...   all this on rumors??? wow.


imagine... fighting this

/tf 842 -- looks weaker    advn-decn still +1100     how can you fade it?  Still massive Trend Up Signals.

/tf 844.3  --- and there you go.   Trend Up means higher and higher.   "Too high" is your mind messing with you.

So perhaps -- big movement days - view the day through 5 min candles.  When tight range, switch to 1 minute.

double top 844 -- but too Trendy to fade.

ah: expecting push on low volume.

advn-decn  +1450 at the close --   844.50  /tf  The Power of the Market.

Hedge funds going to eat a lot of fat turkey this year.   Everyone else can suck it.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Mon Dec 17:

AAPL 504 -- was below 500.   Bottom?

futures up slightly.

nat gas -- big bounce after multiday drop.

preholiday -- expect low volume.  Tighter range?

Big moves and smallball.  This week is smallball -- so need to be more focused.  Fewer opportunities for smaller rewards.

+950  advn-decn -- don't go shorting early today....

/tf  just short of O/N high touch -- and fast  25 tick drop -- that was tough -- had to be willing to be responsive at resist.

shorted /cl - for 17 ticks.      Market is strong. 

/tf  vpoc area 825 -- can't do much here but Market is solid.


When the market is sloppy and whippy, you have to change up -- can't just 'follow your system' if it doesn't allow for high volatility and whipsaw.  Just make an audible and decide to not trade.

/tf --   short squeeze past  o/n highs to 828 -- rip the stops -- low vol. volatility -- not a surprise.

advn-decn  +1000   raging strength.    Recognize.

/tf 829   kicking it up.

830.4 ---  +1100  advn-decn.  Can't stop rage day.

830.4 - this was a  61.8% retrace from high-to-low from 5 day chart.  Almost to the tick. 

rage into close //tf 831.7   /es  1426 -- also touched the 61.8% fib right there at the close (high tick)

/tf  832.7

aapl  sub 500 to 520 close. 

Friday, December 14, 2012

Friday -

Tall tails at the resistance.

OPEX day - so expect tighter range, chop, and close at a VPOC area -- looks like 820 potentially.

Two good entries today:

Just have to wait for it.

Losers will be for $150 tops.

All winners can be held for 20 - 50 ticks.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Thurs. Simple Trend.

/tf - was actually easy if you waited for the test of highs -- then entered on first TL break -- after the 5-min. doji candle.

Establish the TL and cover on a break -- good for 90 ticks.

Trend Day after brief pop

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

what's moving?

be attune to what's moving.

/cl  was strong premarket -- spiked up 90 ticks - then gave most of it back -- so lots of opportunity... especially playing off 5 min candles with long tails at support, then resistance. 

/tf barely moving.

tight range  - FOMC -- must acknowledge  /tf is untradeable....

meanwhile -- /cl  has jumped 3x -- big swings... volatile.

tried to get a bounce on /tf twice...   lost 2x  for 20 ticks.

Was not acknowledging total reversal....

Saw the short set up but did not take it.

Unwilling to accept reversal after Fed day - but that's the best time for reversals to happen... too much profit taking... too many still thinking buy the dip -- not following the charts.  /tf  838 to 828.

/tf  828.1 -- no buy signal.     Tempting -- but chart says no.

What I did poorly:  Did not wait for a clear signal.  Did not take a clear signal when presented.
What I did right: Honored my stops and kept losses from spiralling.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Tues: 11

/tf gap up overnight... suprise??? ha.   to 833.6

shorting on paper at 832.7 after 3 bump pattern. 

set up Fib Retracement --- so target is around 828 --

/cl -  did a  61.8% fib retrace and now has broken the TL  - back under 86.

sold  /tf  - premarket  +11 ticks. 

Looking for a spike up in first 5 min.   But /cl  is giving most of it back -- nice tell it's not all roses.

/tf 828-- be funny if we touched this pullback target.

/tf   833.8 - -new highs -- TREND UP DAY    834....

too many shorts getting piled drived.

Need to recognize-- we broke out of the Range.  That game is OVER. New game.  New rules.

/tf - new highs   TREND UP DAY --  this is not rocket science. 

Trading is SIMPLE but not easy.   Traders lose by overcomplicating a simple system, striving for perfection, when all winning systems MUST incorporate constant losing.

/cl  85.31 -- was a stophunt double bottom from yesterday -- PUKE it up.

going against my clear read of TREND UP DAY -- why?

/tf  double top --   internals strong.

CRUS _  strong off downtrend b/o.  Will have to watch for entryswing.

/tf --  5 min candle -- TL formation to downside and finally a break to UPTREND line on 5 min/ 5day chart  /tf -- and bounce.  

The KEY pattern was the double top /tf.   After a puke candle.  

Keep it simple.

What I did well was identify the top --  had a good TZA entry.
What I did poorly was OVERTHINK my analysis and take off the trade instead of finally allowing a winner to run long -- right here -- where it would have wiped out all losses for the day.

Monday, December 10, 2012

Mon 10th notes:

strongish premarket:

/tf 824

/cl  touched 86.70 --  touched TL on 5 min chart and retraced -- perfect technicals.

euro bounced

/tf  +.24    /es  red -- so RISK ON.  

AAPL  -1.2%

FCX, oil , gold strong.

advn-decn   flat....    grind in the range.       rangebound

be patient....

825 -- got in some TZA for a fast $110 move -- shorted into resistance 1.

/tf -- bounce to new highs -- stophunt

advn-decn  +500   /tf   826.2  --     827 is the stophunt area -- so really can't get short yet....

INVN -- working --    high vol.    options buying....  on screen.... breakout on daily -- correct move is... to hold.

in tza 14.90.   /tf topped out near previious resist.  The trick here is really - to be a Low Frequency Trader and get out at the BOTTOM of the rangetest.   Or just lose $50 on the stop out.   But to take a partial is the old way of thinking.

/cl 85.33 -- massive puke near  pit close -- should be bottom.   took out stops on low side.

advn-decn +90  not much uummph.   pcln, amzn, aapl, ebay  resting hard.

expecting a close near VPOC  /822   /tf?

why did I get it right today: 
1) INVN -- focused on a strong name / strong chart --- did that well.  Used my screen.

2) TZA -- hit and miss but ultimately got some...  focused on good chart reading -- support/resistance.  I was patient.  (But not enough.)   I correctly saw that we would probably stay in a range.

3) MDLZ:  bought another strong name, on a nice daily chart.

= It's easy to know what you did wrong, but every day -- if things go okay -- make sure to spend a moment go over what you did right.  And maybe tomorrow -- you'll do it again.

/tf --- pushes to 826  strong close.... can't fight low vol.   Was no easy day.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

OPEX fri.

Keeping things simple -- this is the key.

First of all: there is no perfect plan.  That's all a lie.  The market is always adapting.  If a system was foolproof, it would no longer work as too many people use it.

There is only your awareness of what's currently happening.

In the past week - the market was stuck in a range, bouncing on fiscal cliff news.  Friday morning was no exception.  The first pop happened at 8:30 on NFP data -- and immediately pushed to the resistance area seen earlier in the week.  This was a high probability fade that one could have taken with maybe 15 ticks stop.  It could have gone higher.  Nobody knew.  But that's the point.  You never know. 

The fade however, was nearly 80 ticks and one could have tried a reverse at the support at  819 /tf.

Once you see a bounce, this is where you could draw in a fib level to figure out how high a bounce you'll get.  50% is always the obvious target and Friday - it nailed it almost exactly.  The rest of the day was choppy mess.  But lately, the mornings are big swings and the afternoons are slow grind.  This WILL change one day.  It has to.  But for now.  Your keen observation of price action will provide you with an edge.

/tf swing to resistance/support, 50% bounce and chop

Friday, December 7, 2012


huge pop on NFP data.

/tf  827

/cl -- 86.80 - -now fading fast.

/tf  fading.

OPEX - range trade?

sloppy --  /tf -- rainbow ....

but expected  on opex -- market has faded "good" data before  -- gap ups often a fade.

/tf  ... have 819 as support 1:     819.9 now.   no surprise -- stophunt?

market is wide-ranging and inefficient  827 to 820 back to 823...

Know your market behavior -- context is everything.   Expect chop because it chops -- now fading again.

Chops should lessen on opex day.

/tf 823.1 --  50% retrace of today's range     827 - 819.80 --  done?

/cl -  retrace, now red.    no set up.

/tf - -wisely avoiding any action -- bad area.

heavy tick - -drop to 820.      appl 539.    market smallball action -  stophunting... but won't run after the NFP blowout.

/6e - pukes -- then 3 bump forms and pop squeeze of 40 ticks....  saw it early...

/cl forming a clear wedge. --

got stopped /cl -- broke under 86 to test stops -- so obvious.   That was the 3rd long tail dip since hitting the lows.  Was more than obvious.

This is the patience part. 

/tf  pin 820 - -game over Friday.

How do most Trend Changes look?

market goes up, keeps bouncing on a TL  -- the TL slope increases.... then

TL breaks clearly on 5 or 15 min. chart.... fast drop -- but wait -- there's a bounce  -- rally is not over?

market climbs to form a double top -- perhaps up to the TL break area.... then ....

drop... fast drop... consolidation.... more droppage...  fast and furious... the 2 or 3 day drop takes back days of climb.  

It's a slow process.

Thursday, December 6, 2012


quiet premarket.

/tf  stable at 820

bonds up slightly,  euro down slightly       AAPL down 4 more to 533.

WLT up 7.5%  premarket -- this got over the 10 day daily a few days ago - -the typical setup

stay with 99 MA ribbon  until major support or clear 3 bump/double bottom pattern emerges.

- Trend changes occur only at

/cl -- 3 touch on 5 min chart - perfect symmetry then  140 TICK drop -- following the 99 ma.

/cl near possible support but no db or tb pattern to work with.  and.... new lows  86.38...

/tf sloppy  near 819 --  underperforming /es

AAPL  -- huge 20 pt. swing to green.
/cl slight bounce to 99 ma -- but folds from there -- short  under 99 ma ribbon.... no major support pattern in place.

/cl  new low,   euro new low but /tf remains green  with aapl  now +30 off lows...  /tf pushing higher to resistance.

/tf -- bottoms near 816 -- rips all the way back to 822.50  despite  /6e weak, zb strong -- basically breaking all the rules...   even  /cl   down 2%  but   /tf is a strong buy 

The whole game is waiting for the right setup.  I'm guessing most failed traders are those that have a system that requires too much patience for them pychologically - so they take bad trades.  They hit their winners, but the impatient losers wipe it all away.  Trading is much slower than it appears.  Most people need more interaction. 

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

wed: why fade?

utilities were strong

AAPL was getting killed all day...

/tf  was underperforming -- risk off

and now we see a selloff into the close after the

drop to ystdy  support -- megarally and afternoon chop.

Market feel is everything.   The multiple factors that make up each unique day provide the edge. 

Only need to trade half a day if you are prepared.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012


/cl -  drops to  sup. 1  premarket.

/6e  touches 1.31

market strong but now giving it back

/tf settling at 820ish.

/zb reverses to green.

bounce again --  /6e  - small dt  at 1.31

/cl - long tail at support 1:  small bounce.

/6e  new high 1.3105.

XHB strong.   /es may be stronger than ppl suspect.  good #s by TOL. 

/6e  -- another 5min reversal candle at 1.3109 high.   Crushing stops.

/cl  new lows.     

Seems like market is ALL IN  one way or the other.   /gc  also plummets under 1700.

long /cl - puke double bottom -   5 min TL break + small double bottom - entry:  looking for 50% FIB retrace of morning drop.

KEY:  must be patient with winners to pay for the losers.

/tf chopped - then ran to touch 50% retrace from last 2 days -- on long tail -- and that was the obvious place to short.   Choppy action but daily chart extended -- vulnerable to retest of lows.

Market Signals strong though -- will be a battle of shits.

/cl  - nailed the bottoming action -- ended up being over 110 tick bounce -- MUST HOLD LONGER with WIDER STOP --  winners must be big to pay for losers.

 /tf  -- down to 814.60 now covering -- up 20 ticks.   High vol. candle -- squeeze back.

/tf - indeed - the double bottom pattern -- leads to slow grind then a pop.  Now nearly 35 ticks from entry signal.  Like lifting 2x week heavy -- only need 2 entries a day to hit it on /tf  or /cl

/tf -- so -  from double bottom - rips to 821+  nearly 70 ticks off low -- then fades slowly.  These key entries can pay for the entire day. 

We're seeing fast moves based on political news/rumors -- don't expect proper topping patterns.

advn-decn  -200 but /tf  green  -- divergent action -- can do anything.

99 ma ribbon up /tf -- this is still a buy dips until a short pattern emerges... grinding on shorts.

shorting the double top on /tf --  stocktwits all bullish -- but I just follow charts.  Fuck your opinion.  Or mine.

No move AH -- just dip then pop --  all sloppy because  Fiscal Cliff is binary event -- entire market trading like a biotech.  Have to look for ranges and fade the long tail extreme moves.

Did not execute well but I did limit my losses.  Frustrating.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Mon Dec. 3

Gap up again.

Trend up Market Signals.

/cl  bottomed at 5 am -- ran 97 ticks.

/tf  bottom at 2:45 am -- ran 130 ticks.

/cl - pb and 2nd push to new high  89.63  ---   strong.  89.80 - is first major double top area.

/cl - hits 89.88 -- stophunt.  PUKE candle.  89.97... 

/tf - straight drop to O/N lows -- perfect move.

/tf  down to 818  - -- 110 TICK drop! 

99 ma  on top - -/tf now in downtrend -- brief pop to 34 ma -- but now required triple bottom to get long.

/cl - bounce -- will soon create triple touch.

/cl  - spot on triple touch -- then 10 min. later -- fast drop --  Have to be willing to hold on, even if it doesn't drop immediately.

/cl drops 90 ticks after 3 bumps....

midday -- well... the morning pop and rip - now we're balanced here -- gotta wake up early.  Should be done by 11:20 ideally.    Afternoon is probably not going to be anywhere near as good for trending markets.

midday -- /tf -- sloppy double bottom for about 25 ticks.

short  /6e  paper --  on 3 bump set up on 5 min chart -- extended --

market breaking lower....     6e holding up for now.