/gc

today's best trade was clear and obvious --    /gc  double bottomed and double bottomed again at a higher level then went into a  pennant formation before breaking out -- it then ran 160 ticks in an hour with virtually no pullback.

the market is noise 95% of the time but then it forms clear and discernible patterns which you can jump on.

 When you wait for these Major Patterns

1) triple bottoms
2) symmetrical wedges near support/oversold markets
3) double bottoms

 The results are fast and reliable. 

The Market Signals dictate direction.   You watch for the pattern.  It is simple and elegant if you don't let your mind get in the way.  

major structures:

at 10:09  /tf  completes a triple top at previous resistance with  clear  bearish Market Signals -- a TL break leads to 70 tick drop almost straight down.

Later in the day  /es forms a tilted 3 top -- and also drops fast and easy.


Finally   /gc -- trends down all day but  KEY POINT:

 Watch for reversal at 3:15ish --   /gc was DEEPLY DEEPLY oversold at a value area and was ripe for a bounce despite weak market signals ---    /gc bounced 100 ticks from 3:15 on a clear TL break.

 So key learning point:   watch the afternoon carefully if market gets too oversold -- watch for TL break bounces.

/es overnight:

3 bump pattern failed --  

Huge strength yesterday.

/ES  -- often double-tops / bottoms and that's what happened this morning along with /tf.

On strength -- look for /ES  double-topping as opposed to slow 3 bump.

major patterns:

major patterns --    Usually 3 bumps descending --  spaced out over 2 or 3 hours -- occur once or twice a day and result in major moves.

 Trading futures should be looking for the pocket aces patterns that produce the oversized moves.  

Seeking tops/bottoms is fools' game since the market could take hours or days before it actually falls. 

Seeking the PATTERN is the answer -- will result in worse entry but better results in terms of heat and time. 

 Find the pattern, and you've mastered the game.    Being early or late -- the pressure to 'try something' is what takes out lesser traders.

 You can only trade THE PATTERN. 

 Every other path leads to failure.

still failing:

so which part of  'setup' don't you get?

If you want to short /tf -- you don't try to 'nail the top'

You wait for the STRUCTURE -- a  high vol. candle at resistance 

AND

consolidation with a discernible trendline lower   3 touch....

AND

Some sort of confirmation from other markets...

This type of pattern typically takes an hour at least -- same for a long setup.

Jumping in early is a loser.  

PATIENCE is the key.   You KNOW what to do.  Can you WAIT for it?

And then PULL the trigger.


It's about a setup.   And the best ones happen at resistance after the early shorts/longs get ripped.

all my troubles:

stem from not placing stops...

  general daily chart swing rule:

1) find supportive area for a known stock with good fundamentals.

2) buy break of downtrend line  using 15 min candles..  tight stop.

  Will lose small on some, big on the runners.

failure: market signals

shorted /cl -- on perfect set up and it failed.

why?   market signals are trend up  -- and major bullish signals will trump a short signal.  obviously.

 So don't bother looking for shorts in a trend up signal market.


also: the  /ng trade  was set too tight (by one tick)  -- and there was no volume anyway -- in the weakest market -- no way you should be long.


 buy pullbacks of STRONG markets.   Don't be afraid.

 And know key support/res. levels.  
 And respect market signals.