wider stops

initiated a short -- with a 5 tick stop because I didn't want to lose. 

Well, it went one tick higher, stopped out, then dropped 60 ticks.

So fear of losing via a tight stop results in losing.

The correct stop should have been 9 ticks away.



What I'm looking for is a double top or triple top then some kind of divergent confirmation.


You must get comfortable with taking trades and taking losses, and then you can take winners, too.

Getting comfortable with winning....

main strategy:

1.  Identify overall trend direction.


2.  Look for a  Clear Trendline established by 3 touches.   Short/long the break with tight stop.

  Most of time the market is chopping around -- trying to establish a clear trend line.  Once the Trend Line emerges (look at 5 or 15 min. candles for clarity -- harder to see on 1-min charts) -- then the Market recognizes where the buyers/sellers agree.  The move from there is then based on the Higher Timeframe trend.

3.  Trail stop.

 Could also wait for 5 period to x-over 9 period on sharp moves -- keeps you in the trend.


The move will be sharp and fast.  It's the waiting for the proper set up that is hard.



The 3 touches is the establishing/distribution or accumulation before the break.   It's necessary to fuel to impending move.




4.  The Move often ends with exhaustion -- signalled by

   a)  huge volume candle, often through a whole number (stop orders)
  b) break of the sharp trendline  (green 1-min candles)

Emotions get in the way

I constantly fear losing profits and so take quick profits -- and miss the moves.


 Natural emotions are a trader's enemy.  My plan was good for 2 points but I took a LOSS instead.  I did not follow my plan.

I must override my emotions which cause me to make the same mistake over and over.  The fear of losing a small profit into a loss is simply part of the natural risk.

 I need a way to interrupt my problematic thinking.   Either leaving the room -- something physical to remind me to follow the plan, not the emotions that creep into every trade.


  In general -- being patient with winners is my problem.  The solution is the act of doing nothing.  Why is this so hard?

Rangebound Strategy

In a range,

A simple strategy of entering breaks of straight trendlines works best.  It gets you in as early as possible and gets you out as soon as the run hits a support and bounces. 

Each trade only requires a 10tick stop.

What Pays?

Opinions do not pay.

Other people's strategies do not pay.

Fear does not pay.

Greed does not pay.

Taking 3rd rate trades because you are bored or impatient does not pay.

Anticipating a proper entry and entering early does not pay.



Waiting for your setup to emerge pays. 

Holding onto winners as long as the trend is still up pays.

Letting losers go immediately does not pay.  But it does pay in the long run.


Reviewing your trading system every day pays.

Being honest with yourself pays.
Taking responsibility pays.
Hard work pays.

/cl 5 crossover 33

1.  /cl dips to  ONE TICK below yesterday's low of day.

2.  Two long tails form.

3.  ENTRY SIGNAL:   5 period MA crosses above 33.


4.   /cl  instantly moves 30 ticks  with no heat, no wait.



Key elements:  Know your longer term  support/resistance areas.    The 5  crossover 33 entry will work best when coming off support.   Or as a short when running into clear resistance area.

The entry should start to be profitable immediately.  If it stalls get out.  If the 5 period MA crosses back below the 33, get out.

This is pure trend following.  You either make a lot or lose a little.  Don't give it time.

New Look

Shifting to two minute Heikin-Ashi candles.  Key is to avoid the long tail stop-hunts that precede big runs.

Today  /cl dipped and dived then rallied on  ethanol news.  5 over 33 period MA crossover got you in a "little late" -- but got in right as the action heated up.  And no heat for you.