 |
| gap up open, test of previous support, trend day |
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
July 9 chart.
Strong day -- was correct to wait for long entry on first good set up.
July 9
Gap up -- again.
tf 1011 at 7:53
TSLA added to QQQ. 2.4%
YY, SCTY, AMZN strong.
GDX, GLD strong on China inflation data.
Tuesday...
IBD names, regional banks strong.
IYT broke TL to upside... confirming.
QQQ up 9 days in a row.
NAMO 43...
oil flat 103.05.
PCLN 888 -- huge winner yesterday.
XHB -- under 50 day MA - lots of distribution. Really not participating but it doesn't matter for now.
XLF - pushing hard - may hit new highs soon.
/tf -- ran up to 1013, TL break, double bottom 1009, back to 1011 -- small backtest of TL break.
premarket trading may be best to take double tops/bottoms as mostly rangebound but difficult with no Market Signals to work with.
SOYBEANS, CORN -- UP 1.4% huge jumps --
CF, MOS may spark
Backtest entry for /tf -- right on -- no heat as it backs down again 1010.
/cl drops 102.77 -- o/n lows.
note: yesterday's failed trade -- triple bottom after a b/o -- but the adv-dec. never popped -- so it was a prone to failure. Must have everything going our way.
/tf 1012.3 9 am.... .57%
TSLA, DDD, amzn, nflx, scty, irbt, aig, yy, snts, gmcr push.
/tf -- tl break / backtest -- and pullback now to 1008.9 -- almost to the old high b/o --
AD trending down to 300 at low.
big gravestone doji at the open was the signal to look for short -- and that it was safe to get in for test of on low.
/tf lod 10:29 am -- look for 11:30 entry???
/tf 1014 -- just need to get on the TL and set tight stops -- the winners will take care of the losers.
Market Signals confirm -- you don't have to wait.
You just NEED 3 TOUCHES of line.
AD 1100 -- no shorts possible... yet.
IYT 2.5%
XHB 2.12%
Dangerous market to short.... squeezing. You need a TL to work with, not a hunch.
small p/b to 1013...
no TL formation..
ad 1200+
adr +700
double top? too strong. No TL.
can you short a triple top wit had +1200 and all signals bullish? I just don't think so.
Need confirmation from somewhere. Can't be purely a chart - has to be within context of the day.
triple top /es -- failed. Internals in Trend up Day.
+700, +1200 adv-dec.
tf 1017 --
adrl 856
XHB -- ripping huge bounce on low vol.
AD 1390 --
tf 1017.50 -- double top -- flattening adrl.. midday rangebound.
adrl trending down 692 -- could look for a TL to surf down...
XHB -- still trending up.
AD +1000 = no short set ups period? Would this save a lot of bad trades?
AD 1300+ today so definitely not.
/tf rolling back 1015
AD 1400... just too strong to tank so don't bother.
PERI 8.95% end of day.
1015 close....
power day.
charts later.
tf 1011 at 7:53
TSLA added to QQQ. 2.4%
YY, SCTY, AMZN strong.
GDX, GLD strong on China inflation data.
Tuesday...
IBD names, regional banks strong.
IYT broke TL to upside... confirming.
QQQ up 9 days in a row.
NAMO 43...
oil flat 103.05.
PCLN 888 -- huge winner yesterday.
XHB -- under 50 day MA - lots of distribution. Really not participating but it doesn't matter for now.
XLF - pushing hard - may hit new highs soon.
/tf -- ran up to 1013, TL break, double bottom 1009, back to 1011 -- small backtest of TL break.
premarket trading may be best to take double tops/bottoms as mostly rangebound but difficult with no Market Signals to work with.
SOYBEANS, CORN -- UP 1.4% huge jumps --
CF, MOS may spark
Backtest entry for /tf -- right on -- no heat as it backs down again 1010.
/cl drops 102.77 -- o/n lows.
note: yesterday's failed trade -- triple bottom after a b/o -- but the adv-dec. never popped -- so it was a prone to failure. Must have everything going our way.
/tf 1012.3 9 am.... .57%
TSLA, DDD, amzn, nflx, scty, irbt, aig, yy, snts, gmcr push.
/tf -- tl break / backtest -- and pullback now to 1008.9 -- almost to the old high b/o --
AD trending down to 300 at low.
big gravestone doji at the open was the signal to look for short -- and that it was safe to get in for test of on low.
/tf lod 10:29 am -- look for 11:30 entry???
/tf 1014 -- just need to get on the TL and set tight stops -- the winners will take care of the losers.
Market Signals confirm -- you don't have to wait.
You just NEED 3 TOUCHES of line.
AD 1100 -- no shorts possible... yet.
IYT 2.5%
XHB 2.12%
Dangerous market to short.... squeezing. You need a TL to work with, not a hunch.
small p/b to 1013...
no TL formation..
ad 1200+
adr +700
double top? too strong. No TL.
can you short a triple top wit had +1200 and all signals bullish? I just don't think so.
Need confirmation from somewhere. Can't be purely a chart - has to be within context of the day.
triple top /es -- failed. Internals in Trend up Day.
+700, +1200 adv-dec.
tf 1017 --
adrl 856
XHB -- ripping huge bounce on low vol.
AD 1390 --
tf 1017.50 -- double top -- flattening adrl.. midday rangebound.
adrl trending down 692 -- could look for a TL to surf down...
XHB -- still trending up.
AD +1000 = no short set ups period? Would this save a lot of bad trades?
AD 1300+ today so definitely not.
/tf rolling back 1015
AD 1400... just too strong to tank so don't bother.
PERI 8.95% end of day.
1015 close....
power day.
charts later.
Monday, July 8, 2013
july 8
/tf takes out all time highs o/n 1009.4 -- blue skies.
now 1007.8 at 7 am.
/es tops 1638 - PERFECT 3 PT . TOUCH ON HOULY CANDLE , 3 DAY CHART.
all time high 1008.3 - now a double top area. TL break +double top at known resistance. May be ideal short?
premarket prone to breaking established lines.
IBD names extremely green pm.
TSLA, SNTS, ACAD, DDD, GPS, FSLR, DB, BAC, AAPL
PCLN +16 points. to 872.
1008 holding.
gld, gdx higher on some calls.
/cl down 1% -- finally.
scty, ddd, pcln, superstrong.
1008.3 acting like res.
1008.5 at 11am
excellent Market Signals... need signficant time to fade.
many new 52 wk highs printing.
NXST, SNTS, NGVC
1:20 tf 1006
signal earlier for 30 t drop - then spike back up -- now wavering again
ad 390 --
utilities leading.
2:45 Big wedge sets up -- won't get out of it.
1008 ...
ad 399
/tf -- stalled
lost 5 ticks on triple bottom -- I think it was a good trade.... signals were strong. but
AD at 350 and never budged on intial b/o of wedge -- dead market here -- just too extended.
/tf -- breaks lower
Strong IBD names but XLU leading and /nq red... NAMO extended... could not trend anymore.
Had to recognize rangebound -- look for a double bottom entry.
now 1007.8 at 7 am.
/es tops 1638 - PERFECT 3 PT . TOUCH ON HOULY CANDLE , 3 DAY CHART.
all time high 1008.3 - now a double top area. TL break +double top at known resistance. May be ideal short?
premarket prone to breaking established lines.
IBD names extremely green pm.
TSLA, SNTS, ACAD, DDD, GPS, FSLR, DB, BAC, AAPL
PCLN +16 points. to 872.
1008 holding.
gld, gdx higher on some calls.
/cl down 1% -- finally.
scty, ddd, pcln, superstrong.
1008.3 acting like res.
1008.5 at 11am
excellent Market Signals... need signficant time to fade.
many new 52 wk highs printing.
NXST, SNTS, NGVC
1:20 tf 1006
signal earlier for 30 t drop - then spike back up -- now wavering again
ad 390 --
utilities leading.
2:45 Big wedge sets up -- won't get out of it.
1008 ...
ad 399
/tf -- stalled
lost 5 ticks on triple bottom -- I think it was a good trade.... signals were strong. but
AD at 350 and never budged on intial b/o of wedge -- dead market here -- just too extended.
/tf -- breaks lower
Strong IBD names but XLU leading and /nq red... NAMO extended... could not trend anymore.
Had to recognize rangebound -- look for a double bottom entry.
Friday, July 5, 2013
reminder on trend trading.
If signals/market is in uptrend, you can take the 5min TL break plus small test.
If there's an established TL down, going to need the 1 hour rule.
If there's an established TL down, going to need the 1 hour rule.
July 5: 5 min chart
Easy entries.
Strong internals, good jobs data...
A full gap fill and run.
That end of day run featured advrl over 1000... pushing -- clear as day. After 998 - there was nothing to do but hold. But so few are able to follow a trend all the way.
Patience got you a clean double bottom set up early and another one end of day for the end of day run.
Also note on the first double bottom - that required at least 1 hour from the time of the low of day to confirm a base -- and the bottom occurred about 1 hour 10 min. after the low print.
No need to anticipate anything. The patterns will arise each day in different times, but will invariably be the same TL formation and test of sup/res (double bottoms).
You don't need to know the future because your risk management takes you out fast and leaves you in slowly so it creates a CP plan.
Strong internals, good jobs data...
A full gap fill and run.
That end of day run featured advrl over 1000... pushing -- clear as day. After 998 - there was nothing to do but hold. But so few are able to follow a trend all the way.
Patience got you a clean double bottom set up early and another one end of day for the end of day run.
 |
| /tf strong day off the gap fill bottom and power finish. |
Also note on the first double bottom - that required at least 1 hour from the time of the low of day to confirm a base -- and the bottom occurred about 1 hour 10 min. after the low print.
No need to anticipate anything. The patterns will arise each day in different times, but will invariably be the same TL formation and test of sup/res (double bottoms).
You don't need to know the future because your risk management takes you out fast and leaves you in slowly so it creates a CP plan.
July 5
Gap up on ECB comments - dovish.
/tf hit 1003 now 998 --
data at 8:30
/cl hit 102.19 -- highs by one tick, stop hunt and backed off.
/tf had 3rd touch entry at 6:10 am -- now 20t lower.
Wed. close was 989
50 ma daily -- above SPY -- bull is back
/tf 1004 -- nhod.
payrolls crush it.
/ym 172 points --- pm blam.
very sloppy --
1004 to 1000.5.
/tf back under 1000
strong: TSLA, AIG, YHOO, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, LNKD, SCTY, IRBT, SODA, CREE
tf 999 at 9:00
tf gives up entire pop 997.3
997 lows
994
ad 1080 -- trending down from high open.
10:23 - low of day
need 1 hour base to get long.... rules.
11:23 -- TL test
AD 664
volrd 8.5
993.2 entry 10t stop long.
IBD names green.
IYT, XLF green.
oil strong.
heard on stocktwits with /cl at highs:
/tf hit 1003 now 998 --
data at 8:30
/cl hit 102.19 -- highs by one tick, stop hunt and backed off.
/tf had 3rd touch entry at 6:10 am -- now 20t lower.
Wed. close was 989
50 ma daily -- above SPY -- bull is back
/tf 1004 -- nhod.
payrolls crush it.
/ym 172 points --- pm blam.
very sloppy --
1004 to 1000.5.
/tf back under 1000
strong: TSLA, AIG, YHOO, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, LNKD, SCTY, IRBT, SODA, CREE
tf 999 at 9:00
tf gives up entire pop 997.3
997 lows
994
ad 1080 -- trending down from high open.
10:23 - low of day
need 1 hour base to get long.... rules.
11:23 -- TL test
AD 664
volrd 8.5
993.2 entry 10t stop long.
IBD names green.
IYT, XLF green.
oil strong.
heard on stocktwits with /cl at highs:
Monday, July 1, 2013
July 1
New month.
/tf double tops out at 6 am -- again -- best entries in the past week have been premarket (mostly fading highs).
O/n strength.
/gc off the floor
ONXX - major buyout.
IBD names strong.
/tf .43%
/es .44
TSLA pt raised.
AAPL -- strong 402 pm.
SHORT 977.6 - TRIPLE TOUCH TL AND BREAK 8:21
problem is: market signals are too strong PM -- not in synch with price action. May have just shorted the low...
scratched /tf +2 ticks.
Simply too much strenght pm to justify taking no-vol. entry here. Especially on 1st of new month.
some of the data from europe was positive, + Australia... so lot of reasons to elevate.
5 min ch. still in downtrend -- looking very mixed. gap fill target...
/cl pushing higher.
and that's 20 ticks from 977.6 entry short... don't think! The patterns will stop you out -- the more you interefere with the process, the worse the outcome.
25 ticks.
The ONLY signals that aren't noise is the chart. Period.
/tf 974 -- red now. from 982 o/n high - -double top.
and bounce
976.6
triple touch. small.
ADrl 1151 , UD huge -- get OUT The way.
1st of month.... 983 -- clear skies /tf busting the doors.
indices - at 50 day MA daily -- push?
10 points top to bottom -- /tf and /es approx. ??? toppish? or more?
more for now. signals powerful.
10:50 -- and /tf breaks up 987 -- 1 hour rule saves a bad short entry.
1.23% /tf ....
IBD powerful
IYT 1.34%
XHB 1.61%
10 am strong data.
11:35 -- BREAK!!!!!!
signals break with /tf
990!!!
great discipline -- never got a short signal. Never thought about it.
UD nhod.
990 - stall.... /tf 2% day! huge. Easy to get trapped into thinking p/b
qqq regains 50 day MA. IYT 50 day MA....
Dow 147+
$vix -4.7%
/es - note AD topped out at 10:05... so there's that. But that's not enough.
1:37 -- ad 1313
/tf -- setting up short but need at least an hour 990.7
UD - keeps drifitng higher.
flop around 2 pm -- 988
IBD names are SOLID.
aegr, yy, tsla, ngvc, xone, lgf, nflx scty, saia, imos
difficult day because the first entry was so fast -- and then you had to really wait for a safe short -- TL break -- and then double top and finally -- a descending TL to capture max 50 tick move
/es was better because it was weaker and provided much better downside movement. So again -- watch both markets -- if shorting, focus on the weaker market.
/tf double tops out at 6 am -- again -- best entries in the past week have been premarket (mostly fading highs).
O/n strength.
/gc off the floor
ONXX - major buyout.
IBD names strong.
/tf .43%
/es .44
TSLA pt raised.
AAPL -- strong 402 pm.
SHORT 977.6 - TRIPLE TOUCH TL AND BREAK 8:21
problem is: market signals are too strong PM -- not in synch with price action. May have just shorted the low...
scratched /tf +2 ticks.
Simply too much strenght pm to justify taking no-vol. entry here. Especially on 1st of new month.
some of the data from europe was positive, + Australia... so lot of reasons to elevate.
5 min ch. still in downtrend -- looking very mixed. gap fill target...
/cl pushing higher.
and that's 20 ticks from 977.6 entry short... don't think! The patterns will stop you out -- the more you interefere with the process, the worse the outcome.
25 ticks.
The ONLY signals that aren't noise is the chart. Period.
/tf 974 -- red now. from 982 o/n high - -double top.
and bounce
976.6
triple touch. small.
ADrl 1151 , UD huge -- get OUT The way.
1st of month.... 983 -- clear skies /tf busting the doors.
indices - at 50 day MA daily -- push?
10 points top to bottom -- /tf and /es approx. ??? toppish? or more?
more for now. signals powerful.
10:50 -- and /tf breaks up 987 -- 1 hour rule saves a bad short entry.
1.23% /tf ....
IBD powerful
IYT 1.34%
XHB 1.61%
10 am strong data.
11:35 -- BREAK!!!!!!
signals break with /tf
990!!!
great discipline -- never got a short signal. Never thought about it.
UD nhod.
990 - stall.... /tf 2% day! huge. Easy to get trapped into thinking p/b
qqq regains 50 day MA. IYT 50 day MA....
Dow 147+
$vix -4.7%
/es - note AD topped out at 10:05... so there's that. But that's not enough.
1:37 -- ad 1313
/tf -- setting up short but need at least an hour 990.7
UD - keeps drifitng higher.
flop around 2 pm -- 988
IBD names are SOLID.
aegr, yy, tsla, ngvc, xone, lgf, nflx scty, saia, imos
difficult day because the first entry was so fast -- and then you had to really wait for a safe short -- TL break -- and then double top and finally -- a descending TL to capture max 50 tick move
/es was better because it was weaker and provided much better downside movement. So again -- watch both markets -- if shorting, focus on the weaker market.
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