apparently there's a teacher shortage...
Maybe after all these mortgage brokers and hedge fund employees get fired... they can go teach math.
Of course, math probably isn't their strong suit...
Monday, August 27, 2007
Friday, August 24, 2007
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
countertrend rally...
The Street needs to move the markets fast... if they move slow, it gives people a chance to sell. And besides, the biggest buyers are the most bearish people getting scared: the shorts.
Another chance for people to get out while the gettings good. Rate cut dreams and lollipops...
Another chance for people to get out while the gettings good. Rate cut dreams and lollipops...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
CROX...
nice company... but I bought my first option ever, a put option -- expires in December.
CROX is growing at 25% a year but that still only gets you around $50/share with $2.00/earnings...
Should the market decline... I'm not sure how far a short squeeze can go.
CROX is up $13 in the past 4 days alone.
Well -- it's a little less than 1% of my trading equity in there so we'll see if the CROX can keep it up for 4 more months.
CROX is growing at 25% a year but that still only gets you around $50/share with $2.00/earnings...
Should the market decline... I'm not sure how far a short squeeze can go.
CROX is up $13 in the past 4 days alone.
Well -- it's a little less than 1% of my trading equity in there so we'll see if the CROX can keep it up for 4 more months.
1 in 693
homes in foreclosure?
Someone can do the math here -- several million homes are going to reset over the next year.
July foreclosures up 93% since July 2006...
American dream going down the toilet for many... and destroying the value of everyone else's home in the process.
Still think a rate cut solves this?
Someone can do the math here -- several million homes are going to reset over the next year.
July foreclosures up 93% since July 2006...
American dream going down the toilet for many... and destroying the value of everyone else's home in the process.
Still think a rate cut solves this?
Monday, August 20, 2007
$IRX
3-month T-bills plummet.
Worst week since 1987 crash -- that's something, huh?
Hedgies are racing to raise cash -- nobody wants to touch a mortgage, commercial paper... anything...
Essentially, this will force a rate cut.
But again 'liquidity crisis' or 'credit crunch' is the big illusion.
Sorry, if it were about liquidity, we'd be back over 14,000...
We're sinking because the loans on the books are toxic -- trillions of dollars of loans and derivatives that insure them.
If the loans go bad and the CDS get called to protect the losses -- then the banks lose and whoever is holding the 'insurance' paper and is liable to come up with billions will also default.
The Fed and everyone out there knows it'll just take one big default to expose the problems.
These problems won't go away even if you cut the rate to zero.
the resets that are coming will cause even more bad loans to go bad.
Nobody with a bad mortgage to get out of it -- they can't refinance, any appraisal will cause the individual to discover a big loss.
This is a game of who can sneak their way into cash or offload the worst junk before it falls apart. The Fed is merely buying time for insiders to hopefully sell a few more shares to the public.
T-bills are telling the story.
Worst week since 1987 crash -- that's something, huh?
Hedgies are racing to raise cash -- nobody wants to touch a mortgage, commercial paper... anything...
Essentially, this will force a rate cut.
But again 'liquidity crisis' or 'credit crunch' is the big illusion.
Sorry, if it were about liquidity, we'd be back over 14,000...
We're sinking because the loans on the books are toxic -- trillions of dollars of loans and derivatives that insure them.
If the loans go bad and the CDS get called to protect the losses -- then the banks lose and whoever is holding the 'insurance' paper and is liable to come up with billions will also default.
The Fed and everyone out there knows it'll just take one big default to expose the problems.
These problems won't go away even if you cut the rate to zero.
the resets that are coming will cause even more bad loans to go bad.
Nobody with a bad mortgage to get out of it -- they can't refinance, any appraisal will cause the individual to discover a big loss.
This is a game of who can sneak their way into cash or offload the worst junk before it falls apart. The Fed is merely buying time for insiders to hopefully sell a few more shares to the public.
T-bills are telling the story.
megatrends...
the downtrend will continue...
A little rally on light volume with oil prices falling... big deal. Oil demand will only increase and eventually, a devastating hurricane will hit the Gulf... so sell it when you can....
Meanwhile
CFC and now Capital One are starting to fire their salespeople...
Who's next?
Home Depot?
Homebuilders?
Retail sales?
-- You can probably think of dozens more... only a matter of time before unemployment is added to growing debt, lack of consumer spending, falling home prices....
Virtuous cycles are always followed by vicious cycles. And when the virtuous cycle is propped up for years by debt...
Nothing to see here, move on unless you're trading.
A little rally on light volume with oil prices falling... big deal. Oil demand will only increase and eventually, a devastating hurricane will hit the Gulf... so sell it when you can....
Meanwhile
CFC and now Capital One are starting to fire their salespeople...
Who's next?
Home Depot?
Homebuilders?
Retail sales?
-- You can probably think of dozens more... only a matter of time before unemployment is added to growing debt, lack of consumer spending, falling home prices....
Virtuous cycles are always followed by vicious cycles. And when the virtuous cycle is propped up for years by debt...
Nothing to see here, move on unless you're trading.
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