Thursday, March 31, 2011

intraday plays:

FNSR -- was strong at the open.. Traded heavy vol.  Could have entered midday and still gotten a point. 
Strong, story name, volume, strength

IPI - traded 2x normal vol.  Created  classic 3 bump pattern over multi-day -- 3rd bump was low of day for .80 move.  Big vol. bar hit on low of day - 5 min candle.

Key is to go with trend.
Don't be afraid to buy in.
Set stop tightly -- will not get hit if you buy right.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

recent trade notes:

GCI -- .30
SVNT:  .70

AEO: .60

TSL: 1.00
SANM: .50
TZA: too soon.  waiting for 3 bumps
SCO: too soon - needed 3 bumps.  stop too tight
F: did not enter
MSFT: .50

goal: hold positions longer/overnight
establish  3 bump entries -- when in doubt, unclear, do not enter.

accept losses.
patience on winners is a big drag. 

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Listen

The market is always giving you information.  Just not necessarily in a language you're familiar with.  Your job is to listen carefully. 

Do it long enough, and you'll start to hear what the market is saying in bits and pieces.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Time of Day

Once again - market began its downtrend at PRECISELY 11 AM -   then it was an easy - hold all day short.

Need to relax when trade goes my way...

goal: stay in the trade with raised stop along the way... patience with winners.  Do not be afraid.  Keep position size small.  Gain confidence.

Take it one day at a time.

Listen to the market.  Search for relative strength.

Monday, February 28, 2011

tza:

hypothetical trade:

gap down --

wait....

starts to recover, pulls back
at PRECISELY 11 AM - creates a 3rd touch on lower trendline -- possible entry with .10 stop - goes on to move 1.30 - with no pullback

key: waiting for 3rd touch, waiting for 'on the hour' moment.
also: internals were mixed -- leadership was notably weak - to support going short.  Gap up open (in IWM) exhausted buyers.

Friday, February 25, 2011

inverse

wait for whole number area to break -  then some kind of dragonfly candle - or enter later at trendline break.  Should be fast and immediate - no heat / no waiting.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

mistakes

mostly the same:

every trade must have a stop that limits losses --  my worst trades are my 'highest conviction' ideas.  I need to prevent myself from talking myself into holding for extended losses.

We are now in a correction so technicals won't work.

Must avoid holding thru these times --  fear taking over.

I have the capacity to rebuild...  must be slowly.  Must not add to losing positions.  Must see the market structure.

Learn from losses. Only way to move forward.