/ng;

a foolish loss.

1:  identified    3 touch using 1 min candles.

but that's NOT ENOUGH.

I needed to wait for a consolidation  long enough to draw a supportive TL.

/ng fell lower -- THEN consolidated for an hour - and then broke 30 ticks -- from this lower, safer entry.

    3 touch is not enough -- especially on bounces.

with  the /es  touch -- a mini 3 touch  TL formed by 20 min.  So waiting 20 min. minimum is good idea.

heavy vol: blow off

so often in futures market --   I see a huge 1 min. vol. candle as it blows past a known resistance area into a new level     /es 1340  -- blows to 1338.50 on huge vol -- and it's a perfect bottom!

 But of course -- when 3 minutes pass and market does not go any lower -- it's obvious those were stop orders blown out -- and the pressure to go lower is exhausted.  The market is now full of victorious shorts -- except they have to cover and there's no more buy stops to help them out -- so the bounce occurs.

 Waiting for this big volume surge  (often on the hour) will clear the way for a high-probability reversal.  If the Blow-Off (BO) Candle occurs on a 3 pt. trendline --even stronger.

expect immediate results

entries should almost always immediately work -- or they are wrong.

failure /es

attempted to go long triple bottom 

 - /es  weaker than  /nq

 no confirmation from any markets

 - major trend down day signals.

- I should only be shorting resistance today --   33 under 99.    

 Bad -- low probability play.

new system: old system

will be trying to enter CLEAR PATTERNS -- specifically  tri-bottoms  tops.


elements:

is the market showing relative strength?
is the market oversold at a higher time frame?
are any other markets confirming strength?
is volume drying up in the OPPOSITE direction?

Is there a key level market can run to?
Is it an ideal time of day/month to enter here?
Can you see a clear triple touch trendline?  

So the triple touch IS the trade.   Must provide some room for wiggle with stops -- particularly with /cl

elements:

33 / 99 day MA -- shows flow

volume:  shows power and trend shift

patterns -- trendline touches  indicate consolidation in direction of move

ENTER:  after top formation (triple top, double top), AFTER  formation of 3 bump/consolidation

33 under 99 MA -- ideally:  enter on first retest.  (unless volume is enormous, in which case there will likely be no retest)

RESISTANCE/SUPPORT areas:  most tops/bottoms are on  even #s or  .50 line. 

time of day / time of month:   opex days can chop around early.

Market Signals:  What other markets are doing?   Strong? Weak?  Same direction yields best results.

nutshell:  identify flow.  Enter as the direction consolidates.  Buy/sell  into support / resistance areas.  WAIT for the right entries. 

support and direction

these are the key words.

You want to buy at a support line -- in the DIRECTION of the flow.  If you can't determine the trend -- there is nothing to do.

Flow is determined by chart patterns and volume (to indicate power).

Today I detected 2 clear trades but only took one.   I did not allow the winner to run.  I took bad trades fighting flow and direction because I was BIASED and felt the market had moved too far.

 Ha.

All a trader can do is follow a plan.  A trend follower trades WITH flow by entering at support areas in the direction of the dominant trend.  Other market signals can provide clues.  (Are other markets trending in the same direction?)

 There is no reason to make any other trade other than the correct one.  You'll still get stopped out -- but this is following a clear plan of entry.