Wednesday, May 16, 2012

When Does the Trend End, My Friend?

Despite weakness, the euro, /6e, managed to climb into the green.  This chart is from just about an hour ago as of this post.

The 9, 33, 99 day Moving Avgs are all above each other, meaning the trend is up.  I know the euro is going to zero... but my rules suggest you have to respect the trend.

There are two major ways trends end, in my opinion, and they often show up clearly on charts.

The first is the triple touch trendline, as shown above.  It also helps to consider the higher timeframe -- the euro has been sinking on the daily and 15minute candle charts... so a topping pattern is likely to work.

The other topping pattern is a double top.  For double tops, I'd like to see a long tail 1-minute candle and a high volume (Puke Candle) as the first top. Even better, the double top takes place in a Supply Area or area of congestion. See the chart of /cl below that took place around the same time.

double top in Supply Area and weak market is a good short

So main new idea:  Respect your moving averages... they'll keep you on the right side of the flow until a Topping Pattern suggests the trend is over.

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