today I only did 2 trades and both were winners but i took profits too early -- they could have been huge.
More importantly -- I was watching -- working on my new -- super simple entry system and nailed many entries that led to waterfall declines.
The last component I realized -- only short when 33 day MA is rolled over -- or long curling up. The futures need to digest moves and the MAs are important and will signal the proper direction.
The candles continue to show tails which are very helpful for early entries. These work very well at key sup/res. areas (otherwise they may not say much).
The volume also provides clues of exhaustion -- again -- long tail candles/strong vol. at sup/res. often indicate reversals. But most of my entries would require a TL break so I get secondary confirmation.
As a result... this entry system provides very very tight risk control.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Monday, February 13, 2012
bottoming pattern on /gc
huge vol. 1 minute candle.
long tail forms on 1 min candle. next 3 - 5 candles create a rising wedge ---
move back to previous resistance -- either horizontal or top of descending channel.
TOPS:
Huge volume candle pops into area of congestion or into double top.
Next 3 - 5 min. forms sloping line or horizontal resistance area... market will then fall to bottom of channel or form double bottom with nearest, most recent short term bottom.
long tail forms on 1 min candle. next 3 - 5 candles create a rising wedge ---
move back to previous resistance -- either horizontal or top of descending channel.
TOPS:
Huge volume candle pops into area of congestion or into double top.
Next 3 - 5 min. forms sloping line or horizontal resistance area... market will then fall to bottom of channel or form double bottom with nearest, most recent short term bottom.
futures: start with bigger picture
I'm getting chopped because I'm not seeing the BIGGER PATTERNS -- namely /es is bouncing off a trendline and provides easy entries.
/6e I noticed several times but did not capitalize. Once the major support/res. areas fail or hold -- the move is usually swift until the next support area. The candlestick indicators only really work at the sup/res. areas.
Today I got chopped in /tf --- I was too early and finally at 824 -- it was a top and move 2.5 pts. It hit this area and completed a triple top (rising channel) == but still. The pattern was crystal clear -- the main thing is to identify areas of resistance on 10 day charts first.
/6e I noticed several times but did not capitalize. Once the major support/res. areas fail or hold -- the move is usually swift until the next support area. The candlestick indicators only really work at the sup/res. areas.
Today I got chopped in /tf --- I was too early and finally at 824 -- it was a top and move 2.5 pts. It hit this area and completed a triple top (rising channel) == but still. The pattern was crystal clear -- the main thing is to identify areas of resistance on 10 day charts first.
Thursday, February 9, 2012
trades
started with /gc -- down big overnight -- noticed it get over 33 MA with vol. surge -- started to base so I bot -- waited 10 min -- continued to base... popped 15 ticks and retraced. I felt mad for not taking quick money but it ran again and i took 20 ticks... ended up running 70 ticks. Would have been all over.
Bot /gc again -- after finding a support area using 5-min -- 5 day chart and this was the bottom of the day.
But ended up giving most back with choppy trades. (/6e)
At one point /gc set up a symmetrical triangle for hours -- it finally broke on vol. surge and was a fast move. Most big moves are explosive and over within an hour -- preceded by an initial vol. surge. Most of the day is untradeable and therefore overtrading MUST lead to underperformance.
Not waiting for VOLUME is pointless.
Solar stocks like TSL surged 20% plus -- again we see vol and options activity. Entering and expecting immediate results (or quick small loss) is the best way to trade. No need to be IN unless we are using daily charts for entries exits. But again -- we need to see volume to support a daily chart.
Bot /gc again -- after finding a support area using 5-min -- 5 day chart and this was the bottom of the day.
But ended up giving most back with choppy trades. (/6e)
At one point /gc set up a symmetrical triangle for hours -- it finally broke on vol. surge and was a fast move. Most big moves are explosive and over within an hour -- preceded by an initial vol. surge. Most of the day is untradeable and therefore overtrading MUST lead to underperformance.
Not waiting for VOLUME is pointless.
Solar stocks like TSL surged 20% plus -- again we see vol and options activity. Entering and expecting immediate results (or quick small loss) is the best way to trade. No need to be IN unless we are using daily charts for entries exits. But again -- we need to see volume to support a daily chart.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
proper entries;
saw /cl -- double bottom -- dragonfly candles at previous support. Entry was .10 above -- took 10 ticks -- but ran for over 70.
/tf -- almost entered near low of day -- was good for 80 ticks.
/ng -- entered midway through large push. Got 14 ticks - was good for 40.
/6e -- entered multiple times -- got 20 ticks -- was good for 40.
solution: raise stops on trades that work correctly -- do not settle for small profits on correct entries.
VOLUME surges continue to indicate big moves.
Wait for the best trade of the day.
note: /cl topped out at 100 and then again at 99 -- major tops at key price points if no previous resistance levels.
/tf -- almost entered near low of day -- was good for 80 ticks.
/ng -- entered midway through large push. Got 14 ticks - was good for 40.
/6e -- entered multiple times -- got 20 ticks -- was good for 40.
solution: raise stops on trades that work correctly -- do not settle for small profits on correct entries.
VOLUME surges continue to indicate big moves.
Wait for the best trade of the day.
note: /cl topped out at 100 and then again at 99 -- major tops at key price points if no previous resistance levels.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
hindsight
/ng -- dropped to previous support level and touched twice - double bottom, then formed 3 rising pattern and then it was trend up... VERY OBVIOUS
/cl also dived --- double bottom, break up, double bottom -- 200 tick run. VERY OBVIOUS.
/tf --- triple top at clear level ---dipped for 20 ticks. OBVIOUS.
The fact is -- these patterns are obvious as they develop. SUPPORT, RESISTANCE. In all cases, volume spikes at the lows --- yet another clue. /ng bottomed on the biggest volume candle of the day. So that should have been the first clue (but not first entry -- it came over an hour later).
so -- What to look for
1) SUPPORT / RESISTANCE LEVELS (look back 5 days or so -- look at recent levels)
2) VOLUME SPIKES, CANDLES with tails at lows.
3) double bottom / ascending triples at support.
4) buy in direction of trend - set stop below pattern.
/cl also dived --- double bottom, break up, double bottom -- 200 tick run. VERY OBVIOUS.
/tf --- triple top at clear level ---dipped for 20 ticks. OBVIOUS.
The fact is -- these patterns are obvious as they develop. SUPPORT, RESISTANCE. In all cases, volume spikes at the lows --- yet another clue. /ng bottomed on the biggest volume candle of the day. So that should have been the first clue (but not first entry -- it came over an hour later).
so -- What to look for
1) SUPPORT / RESISTANCE LEVELS (look back 5 days or so -- look at recent levels)
2) VOLUME SPIKES, CANDLES with tails at lows.
3) double bottom / ascending triples at support.
4) buy in direction of trend - set stop below pattern.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
morning
watched two good setups - didn't take them -- both winners - no heat
then took 2 trades that failed -- so bad mental state -- need to clear. Need to be willing to take the instinctively good ones. But positive side: small losses --- took action. (Just not good action.)
then took 2 trades that failed -- so bad mental state -- need to clear. Need to be willing to take the instinctively good ones. But positive side: small losses --- took action. (Just not good action.)
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