Mar 14

Obvious patterns break - for obvious reasons.

You make the most money betting responsively - anticipating a pattern or area.


nat gas names

apc, swn - new highs

UNG - burning up

UPL, XCO --  entire sector huge.

AD 822
UD  50

Trend UP.

/6e--  hit the target -- 40 ticks but exited too early...

/es hit top of obvious channel and traders are shorting or won't get long until it slides down in time or price correction.

obvious...

keep it simple.

/zb green
/ym - double top
/tf double top

SNTS, MX, REXX, EDAP, SWN  --   winners.

Mar 12.

premarket weak.

/gc  has a 100 tick explosion to nearly 1600 at 7 am
/si even stronger.

Something shifted here.   GDX best etf premarket.

/zb strong .33%


/gc -- break out

AG - break above 10,20 ma...

paper short /ym - too early -- OFF PATTERN.   Follow the rules.

/tf red--  perfect resistance at ystdy  high --
ad -200
ud fading
Vix green
zb green

vix 3%

ad  -380
/zb  nhod

ud - negative

AD -700
/tf - touch o/n low

vix 5.4%

all signs -- bears winning.

AD -720
/tf test lows

/tf hit high of day with  AD  near zero -- great opp. to responsively enter the TRIPLE TOP.


Internals Matter.  
Picking bottoms today may result in stinky finger.

-800 ad

Trend DOWN Day???


ALWAYS BE LOOKING FOR THE TRIPLE TOUCHES.    /TF  CLASSIC.

long /tf - at ystdy lows -15t stop  - for volatility --  looking for 20t bounce.

short /ym  on 5 min TL break.
Trend Down day signals -- ON system.

Also a triple touch.

short /tf -- break of formation wedge.   8t stop.
short  /tf - again
AD -700
UD near lod
/zb  breaking higher

1:50 
UD nlod

short /tf - last time  TL break.

Ad -750
UD -76
VIX 8.2%
/zb up strong

Trend is Down -- and bears in charge.

AD -860
UD -97

took about 13 ticks /tf -- regular TL break --


very bearish internals to just hope we bounce because we been up 6 days in a row. 


everyone a dip buyer...

so all buyers here are WEAK.

Don't follow the crowd -- smells like failure today for the markets.

internals worse 2:42

TRADE LOCATION.

can't force a bad trade.

internals turn coming into 3 - still weak. 

/tf  /ym -- /es -- closing at VPOCish area.  -- range test - and middle close.  bloop.

Mon 11 notes.

Conquer Fear.

red premarket?   

most indices up 6 - 8 days in a ROW.    Wow -- we can actually trade down?

/zb green
NBG -10%   -- forgot about this one. 

/gc little green.

AG -- 5% buyback.   Good fundies.  Run to 50 day MA is 2 pts.    Nice R:R.

Gld bottomy -- but still weak. 

/YM  +.01%  can't stop the rain.  

despite only 5 tickers green  premarket -- carries a lot of weight I guess.


AD -700
zb green
UD  -15

internals weakening -- have to stay with it.

short /ym

AD  -540

/ym - covered  4 ticks

VIX -2.4%  
leaders mostly leading... mixed up here.

AD -560
UD -15
/zb green
/ym green?????  wtf   man

AD -600
UD -16

ad -500
UD -8

fast turn. 

UD  turns positive.  10:47

UD improving

short /ym -- last time  11 t stop.

UD back to negative --

/ym TOP of Range.

AD -400


/tf -- weaker than /ym - this is the market to short.

/ym -- the top was quite obvious on 15 min. chart -- everything I did today was ridiculous.

AD  -179

utx, ba-  nhod  leading /ym
/zb -- breaking down.

Poor trading -- not following trade.    Either the B/O -- going WITH the 15 min. Trend -- for 40 ticks... or wait until top of Large Resistance at 14.340 with 12t stop.

UD  +15
AD -159

UD  nhod

UD +30
AD -50

/ym - and break to nhigh -- daily chart.

and it hits RIGHT around NOON.

GRIND UP continues  7th day.

AD -19
UD 52  nhod

/ym nhod

AD  24

/tf 938
/es close to 1550
VIX -- 2007 low broken.

VIX -7%   blam.

vix -6.8%

3 pm - big TICK drop --

triple top /ym... is it enough?

AAPL -- big jump  --  never f--k with AAPL when it rampages.

AD 55 -- weak
UD 73  decent.

/zb slight red.

UD nhod  -- not shorting this.

AD - FLAT

close at highs -- rip.

AD 200
UD -- nhod  blast.

Fri.

/zb down


Trend Up.

Grind up.

Know the Markets.

Don't trade noise.



bought GLD on the slam 151.18


/tf 939 on data

/gc  slammed to 1560.

massive bubble day.  gap up.

FXY -- yen bottomless pit.

Market Signals
AD  500
UD 20
/zb red

Grind Up Signals.

internals still solid - improving.

Grind higher.

AD 861
UD nhod
/tf  937 -- target hit on bounce.



$VIX - green.

AD 1600 to 400

fading to support  TL....  829.50 target....


AD  600 -- target hit at 937  fading again.

AD 820
/tf 837

IBD -- all green
VIX -3%

GRIND.



UD nhod
/cl -  ripping nhod
/tf - at opening print.   +.57%
vix  -3%


ad  900
ud nhod.

/tf 938  grind

AD 1000
ud nhod

/tf 938
/es - 1545

grind.

must be willing to hold winners longer. 
must hold on.

Signals will keep you focused.  Stops trail up.

Tues: Mar 5

/es touches new high over 1530  o/n session

/tf hi

/es   hovering near 1530

/tf 921
/es1532
/ym 14170

CREE up huge on new product.

Everyone's a winner.  Follow the charts to heaven.

forget the news and hype.  The plan is the plan every day.  Doesn't change because "everyone is bullish".

guessing we start AD near 700 - 1000. 

AD +1400!

AD 1700
wow.

AD 1674 - stable 
UD 93

CREE, KKD, KBH, AWAY, ADBE, GOOG, TSLA leaders.

every stock on list is green today....   LOOOOOOOVE

Bulls don't just rule - domination.  Beyond domination.

This is a day to be a pig.


long consolidation O/N -- correct play was simple buy breakout /ym (or /es or /tf)and set 10t stop -- huge R:R with strong premarket action.  

11 am:  pullback beginning -- but in a Trend Day.

UD - nhod.
/es - first p/b - and touches nhod.

1:53 - low TICK  nlod.

IGT -- pushing to new highs -- caught it with call buying action.

/zb breaks DT.

UD  nhod
but  AD  new lows...  tired up here.

/tf 925  building value.

AD 1430 - nlod.

-600 TICK.

AD  nlod
TICK -600+

/ym topped out 10:50 am...

/tf - saw it clearly - didn't act on it.

Mon Mar. 4

futures down premarket.

/ym 14031

/tf 911

ym - ramp back 14047

indices -- all touch O/N highs -- perfect resistance and fail.



Market Signals  very bearish...   /tf 912 - holding strong tho.

vix up.

/zb - red.
xhb, xlf green.

AD -290
UD negative

shorts covering?  need power to go higher.

10:10 am --   BEAR SIGNAL EVERYWHERE.

 covered tza at TL.   for a 12 ticks.

chop back to top of range
IYT raging -- a good tell.
VIX still green tho.


XLU strong - - sort of bearish.

euro close coming...      hard to figure this chop out...  midrange.

/ym - -top of range.
euro close pop.    thought so...

/zb new lows
vix red now....

short /ym - after takes out highs -- 5 min long tail.  Internals still red.

AD -360


/tf  tanks   12:20 -- fast drop to support 908 --  FAST! drop -- surprise move.

AD  -700
/zb -- was down -- never provided any indicator.   All you had was the negative AD.

/tf - took out stops below 908 -- now chop/grind.


Extremistan day -- 60 ticks in 20 min....    now grind.

/tf -- back to 911 --     tested top/bottom - stophunt -- return to value.  Simple day really.

TICK 1000 - -nhod.
1:22 blam.

must allow entry to ride.... this has to change.  Must change behavior to change results.

try another /ym short.

XLU leading
VIX -   -3.8% bullish... hmmm
AD -270
/zb red.

IYT - double top to the tick - right here.  2:38pm.

AD green
/tf 915  bang
/ym  ripping

VIX -6.3%
/zb nlod.

was short /tf and /ym  paper -- managed to get stopped out TO THE TICK ON BOTH AT HIGH OF THTE DAY.   ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE. And yet I managed it.


the /ym -- needed to touch THREE TIMES WITH 5 MIN. CANDLES BEFORE A SHORT. THAT'S THE RULE.


/tf  - close at highs  916.40

IBD leaders led.
VIX -8.3%
another dip early -- and push.

/ym - rip to nhod  AH - all shorts lose.

Fri Mar. 1

clean trend down o/n session.

/es 1505 -- yesterday was a classic reversal. 

/6e  1.30  -- break.

seeing all signs of a selloff but now starting session deep in the hole -- may be choppy zipper/grind back --

gold, copper, oil weak.  
banks weak
100% correlation today....

use hourly charts -- lots of room to fall -- the upper bands were established but hard to figure out where indices may bottom.

/tf - these little pops are noise. 

Don't trade noise.  and most of it is noise.

Need to trade larger patterns because large players dominate and the turns can only come after sizeable accumulation or distribution.

JJC -- been a good divergent tell.

ad -1400
/tf  899

/tf - most perfect technical bounce into the 5 min. TL -- and whoosh -- easiest 30 ticks ever.  

we're in chopmode here

/tf -- 100 tick range  897 to 907... thru TL.  taking out stops.

AD, UD, /zb, VIX -- all bearish. 
but /tf  -.35% -   can't short in the hole.

/es  GREEN

short  /ES   stop 1550.50

last time
short /tf -- thru  O/N high -- and 910.  

5 min reversal bar - /tf

small triple touch - flag  /tf   1:42.

AAPL  --  new lows for the year....

AD  flat....   but /tf up strong... hmmm...

ad -100
UD negative....

makes no sense to be up.

zb green
vix green.

how are markets green?

2:25 -- market topped at 2:30 yesterday.    Could it repeat?  Is it that obvious?

2:30 - no selloff...  
/tf -- TL broken...    2:40

Adn /tf - breaks to upside....   PUSH.  knew it.

can't use tight stops -- noise will get you every time.

/tf  912

ad flat.

opex days...  

IGT looks good
THRX - call buyers from the bottom -- closing strong.
ESRX continues

indices all up trend -- daily charts -- no weaknesses.

Big Dick $tick  3:40  sending it...

/tf - yesterday highs TO THE TICK


Well -- that was something.....

180 tick range -- bottom to top.   Every day is an opportunity.   You just got to have a system to get some.