Here's the short in /tf
There was also a simply TL breakout premarket that caught the entire upside -- always worth taking since the risk was around 8t max.
 |
| /tf: runs in the morning - sets up short in afternoon |
Thursday, July 18, 2013
July 18:
One of my top patterns, assuming the Market signals are confirming is simply a TL break on the 5 min candles and then a small double top/double bottom
Here's the short in /tf
There was also a simply TL breakout premarket that caught the entire upside -- always worth taking since the risk was around 8t max.
Here's a long off /nq -- using same TL break + backtest on the same day.
Simple pattern, easy to manage risk. Use know sup/res. as targets or just trail. Never have to risk more than 9t max.
Here's the short in /tf
There was also a simply TL breakout premarket that caught the entire upside -- always worth taking since the risk was around 8t max.
Monday, July 15, 2013
July 15 - Mon
Trend day again
QQQ up 14 days in a row.
Raining money. Really as simple as it gets.
Triple touch entries pay gold.
QQQ up 14 days in a row.
Raining money. Really as simple as it gets.
Triple touch entries pay gold.
 |
| /tf Trend Day mean simply buying triple support and wedge breaks |
Friday, July 12, 2013
bad day
Well, I had a terrible day with the futures...
I had pretty much one correct entry all day -- which I lost on anyway because my stop was too tight and that was because I entered a bit too early.
This is a simple game but it's not easy. It requires total discipline and attention. I started getting frustrated, I knew I was frustrated, and took two more bad trades anyway.
Meanwhile the IBD stocks are mostly doing great.
I basically should be doing the same thing every day but I seem to be making small adjustments to my rules every single day which means I'm having to think and make decisions rather than simply observe and act on patterns I know have good probability.
My losses were contained but that's not the point. It was still awful.
And it's worse that I was leaning bearish /tf at the close and finally gave up before the easy -- ridiculous 40tick give back. One trade could have wiped out the entire day of losses but I wasn't in for that one.
What did I learn?
1) the patterns with the market signals will work. I have to trust them more.
2) Can't go off and trade /nq or take other pattern entries that are not clear as day.
3) Must accept the process will have bad days.
4) Analyze them, learn from them, then move on.
Anyway. I'm relaxing this weekend and plan to come back Monday and start over again.
I had pretty much one correct entry all day -- which I lost on anyway because my stop was too tight and that was because I entered a bit too early.
This is a simple game but it's not easy. It requires total discipline and attention. I started getting frustrated, I knew I was frustrated, and took two more bad trades anyway.
Meanwhile the IBD stocks are mostly doing great.
I basically should be doing the same thing every day but I seem to be making small adjustments to my rules every single day which means I'm having to think and make decisions rather than simply observe and act on patterns I know have good probability.
My losses were contained but that's not the point. It was still awful.
And it's worse that I was leaning bearish /tf at the close and finally gave up before the easy -- ridiculous 40tick give back. One trade could have wiped out the entire day of losses but I wasn't in for that one.
What did I learn?
1) the patterns with the market signals will work. I have to trust them more.
2) Can't go off and trade /nq or take other pattern entries that are not clear as day.
3) Must accept the process will have bad days.
4) Analyze them, learn from them, then move on.
Anyway. I'm relaxing this weekend and plan to come back Monday and start over again.
July 12, 2013
Friday. opex.
futures flat o/n.
/cl - went vertical -- may do 50% retrace of past 2 days.
/tf had a signal -- b/o / small backtest for about 15 ticks.
premarket usually not a good time to enter.
/gc falling back down.
JPM, WFC reports -- strong.
PPI data 8:30
PPI data - problematic. market initially dips
UPS -- warning. -3%
9:41 -- market signals drop -- and TL break -- short entry /tf 8t stop.
Have to be automatic.
bad entry -- pattern was too small -- 5 min chart showed it was actually b/o + backtest.
strong IBD names = buyers control.
adrld -230 -- RANGEBOUND STRATEGIES. ? DOUBLE TOP?
10:45 high of day -- need time
TL break + small backtest -- and there's 20 ticks to top of 25 OR --
and TL break up but no signal confirmation - so it's a no signal.
missed this trade because you were DECIDING instead of acting automatically to the plan.
/tf - double bottom but ad trending down -- no longs.
/nq -- triple top TL -- weaker than /tf -- and there it drops to a clear TL below - 4pts - no heat.
must be willing to switch markets... short the weaker one.
and midrange -- ad -113
3 good entries today -- missed them all but took a bad one for -7.
/nq had TL break +Backtest but ADVN-DECN trending down -- no signal.
1:59 -- TL break +small backtest long 1032.7 8t stop -- have to be automatic.
AD -35 but trending up.
VOLrd trending up
stopped out -- frustrating. shit. And I was correct... just had the stop too tight.... .... damn.
IYT, JNK, JJG, eem, xhb red -- /nq jumps to highs -- pushing so hard....
I feel this is a fake -- should get short. Can't do it because no signal, pattern to doso.
triple top short... rangebound market -- this is the proper thing to do.
adrld at zero.
iyt, xhb red. eem iyr, jnk red. It's not a trend day for sure.
AND STOPPED OUT
0 for 3.... pathetic.
short /nq -- symmetrical double top to the tick . Rangebound market means responsive trading should pay.
incredibly awful day.
and no reason for it.
past 3 days - -jump in morning.... consolidate til afternoon base forms, ramp to close.
complete hoser close -- ramp and then all taken back AH.
OPEX -- almost always rangebound so triple touch entries on Fri. are best.
futures flat o/n.
/cl - went vertical -- may do 50% retrace of past 2 days.
/tf had a signal -- b/o / small backtest for about 15 ticks.
premarket usually not a good time to enter.
/gc falling back down.
JPM, WFC reports -- strong.
PPI data 8:30
PPI data - problematic. market initially dips
UPS -- warning. -3%
9:41 -- market signals drop -- and TL break -- short entry /tf 8t stop.
Have to be automatic.
bad entry -- pattern was too small -- 5 min chart showed it was actually b/o + backtest.
strong IBD names = buyers control.
adrld -230 -- RANGEBOUND STRATEGIES. ? DOUBLE TOP?
10:45 high of day -- need time
TL break + small backtest -- and there's 20 ticks to top of 25 OR --
and TL break up but no signal confirmation - so it's a no signal.
missed this trade because you were DECIDING instead of acting automatically to the plan.
/tf - double bottom but ad trending down -- no longs.
/nq -- triple top TL -- weaker than /tf -- and there it drops to a clear TL below - 4pts - no heat.
must be willing to switch markets... short the weaker one.
and midrange -- ad -113
3 good entries today -- missed them all but took a bad one for -7.
/nq had TL break +Backtest but ADVN-DECN trending down -- no signal.
1:59 -- TL break +small backtest long 1032.7 8t stop -- have to be automatic.
AD -35 but trending up.
VOLrd trending up
stopped out -- frustrating. shit. And I was correct... just had the stop too tight.... .... damn.
IYT, JNK, JJG, eem, xhb red -- /nq jumps to highs -- pushing so hard....
I feel this is a fake -- should get short. Can't do it because no signal, pattern to doso.
triple top short... rangebound market -- this is the proper thing to do.
adrld at zero.
iyt, xhb red. eem iyr, jnk red. It's not a trend day for sure.
AND STOPPED OUT
0 for 3.... pathetic.
short /nq -- symmetrical double top to the tick . Rangebound market means responsive trading should pay.
incredibly awful day.
and no reason for it.
past 3 days - -jump in morning.... consolidate til afternoon base forms, ramp to close.
complete hoser close -- ramp and then all taken back AH.
OPEX -- almost always rangebound so triple touch entries on Fri. are best.
Be Automatic
someone posted a quote on twitter that I should have copied.
Essentially: If you have to make decisions during the trading day -- you're never going to make it.
Look: there's too much happening. We can't pay attention to everything. Humans have limited capacity -- so we end up being blind to lots of information. This is why pilots can sometimes fly into a mountain -- they're focused on the controls, and whatever and just become blind to some really obvious signals.
The trading plan and the patterns that we use to trigger entries/exits need to be as automated as possible. If we have to think whether this particular signals is good or not... we're going to end up missing it altogether or getting frustrated and taking off-plan trades.
Be automatic and accept that small losses are PART of the plan, not a failure.
We want to make trading as automatic as possible by developing good habits. Nobody thinks about their habits when they're doing them, good or bad.
If you're overthinking, it may mean the plan is not as clear as it needs to be -- so work it out.
Essentially: If you have to make decisions during the trading day -- you're never going to make it.
Look: there's too much happening. We can't pay attention to everything. Humans have limited capacity -- so we end up being blind to lots of information. This is why pilots can sometimes fly into a mountain -- they're focused on the controls, and whatever and just become blind to some really obvious signals.
The trading plan and the patterns that we use to trigger entries/exits need to be as automated as possible. If we have to think whether this particular signals is good or not... we're going to end up missing it altogether or getting frustrated and taking off-plan trades.
Be automatic and accept that small losses are PART of the plan, not a failure.
We want to make trading as automatic as possible by developing good habits. Nobody thinks about their habits when they're doing them, good or bad.
If you're overthinking, it may mean the plan is not as clear as it needs to be -- so work it out.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
July 11
Bernank lights up the world.
/tf 1030.8 o/n high
now 1029.7 at 8:05
gold up huge
/cl over 107 o/n -- now RED -- just under ystdy close.
EWZ 3.9%
GDX 4.5%
gold 2.4
EEM 3.76%
TSLA, amzn, yhoo, aig, scty, gmcr ....
It's a bubble and ben loves it.
/es 1.05% to 1665 - +17 o/n
so, how do we have a Trend day when the market already trended up o/n? May not be so obvious.
underperformers like EWZ, GDX, FXI -- strongest names.
watch the vol. on b/os after 3 touch bases.
/gc -- breaks TL -- for 50 ticks easy.
tf 1028
big gap open...
more double bottom entries -- /tf / gc -- all good.
adrl: 1321 --- pullback to double bottom o/n lows -- 30 tick bounce -- should have trie dthat with 10t stop.
tf - pop at 10:30 but ADVrl trending down still... and it's middle of o/n range -- no go.
adrld - keeping you off the long -- sliding 1074
rangebound action.
/cl - is trending -- so you can enter b/o wedge.
/tf is still in the 25m OR -- so rangebound.
tried db long --
signals trending down with no confirmation -- and stopped, obviously....
puke candle takes out lows on triple bottom.
MUST HAVE SOME KIND OF CONFIRMATION - BETTER LATE AND RIGHT. early is wrong.
price action WITH market signals = a trade --
must be the two together or you wait.
THEN you have to take it. Can't hesitate.
Some common patterns today -- triple top as the AD trend down -- trying to fill a gap.
Then strength returns --- TL break + back tests get you in just as the trend starts.
Again - main thing here - is -- you have to wait for the best patterns.
There is the triple touch trendline -- with Market Signals trending down.
There is a b/o with small backtest (for extra confirmation) -- with strong Market Signals trending up.
And there is the responsive double top/bottom -- usually at key areas (o/n highs/lows) when the Market Signals are middling.
That's it. The stops are never more than 9ticks -- all the entries work right away or you are wrong. So the winners will pay for at least 2 losers every time.
/tf 1030.8 o/n high
now 1029.7 at 8:05
gold up huge
/cl over 107 o/n -- now RED -- just under ystdy close.
EWZ 3.9%
GDX 4.5%
gold 2.4
EEM 3.76%
TSLA, amzn, yhoo, aig, scty, gmcr ....
It's a bubble and ben loves it.
/es 1.05% to 1665 - +17 o/n
so, how do we have a Trend day when the market already trended up o/n? May not be so obvious.
underperformers like EWZ, GDX, FXI -- strongest names.
watch the vol. on b/os after 3 touch bases.
/gc -- breaks TL -- for 50 ticks easy.
tf 1028
big gap open...
more double bottom entries -- /tf / gc -- all good.
adrl: 1321 --- pullback to double bottom o/n lows -- 30 tick bounce -- should have trie dthat with 10t stop.
tf - pop at 10:30 but ADVrl trending down still... and it's middle of o/n range -- no go.
adrld - keeping you off the long -- sliding 1074
rangebound action.
/cl - is trending -- so you can enter b/o wedge.
/tf is still in the 25m OR -- so rangebound.
tried db long --
signals trending down with no confirmation -- and stopped, obviously....
puke candle takes out lows on triple bottom.
MUST HAVE SOME KIND OF CONFIRMATION - BETTER LATE AND RIGHT. early is wrong.
price action WITH market signals = a trade --
must be the two together or you wait.
THEN you have to take it. Can't hesitate.
Some common patterns today -- triple top as the AD trend down -- trying to fill a gap.
Then strength returns --- TL break + back tests get you in just as the trend starts.
Again - main thing here - is -- you have to wait for the best patterns.
There is the triple touch trendline -- with Market Signals trending down.
There is a b/o with small backtest (for extra confirmation) -- with strong Market Signals trending up.
And there is the responsive double top/bottom -- usually at key areas (o/n highs/lows) when the Market Signals are middling.
That's it. The stops are never more than 9ticks -- all the entries work right away or you are wrong. So the winners will pay for at least 2 losers every time.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
July 10. Wed
FOMC at 2 pm -- so get an early lunch.
europe weak o/n
China up on extremely weak trade data.
/cl almost 105....
huge IBD names pushing yesterday.
PCLN, AWAY, YY, XONE, LGF,
PERI gapping up after heavy vol. yesterday.
a lot of weak stuff jumped ystdy -- xhb, cat, de -- cf, mos... are these buys? Easy to get sucked into buying strong moves off weak charts. don't.
$namo - 45 again... not much room for error -- in a squeeze.
symmetrical triple touches -- these nearly always form before a clear trend... could be same direction or could be a reversal. Depends on context but this is the main entry that provides an edge.
11:28 -- double bottom with 5 am low -- rangebound strategy is on -- had to be willing to take the lows -- knowing signals were weak but not heavy -- bounced 25 ticks with no heat on the db pattern that is so common on Fed days -- no conviction so take the test area.
now we're back to yesterday's close / value = nothing to do near noon time -- chop and drop but no big moves.
Range day
Only trades that paid well were double tops and bottoms -- there were THREE good trades.
Rangebound --
europe weak o/n
China up on extremely weak trade data.
/cl almost 105....
huge IBD names pushing yesterday.
PCLN, AWAY, YY, XONE, LGF,
PERI gapping up after heavy vol. yesterday.
a lot of weak stuff jumped ystdy -- xhb, cat, de -- cf, mos... are these buys? Easy to get sucked into buying strong moves off weak charts. don't.
$namo - 45 again... not much room for error -- in a squeeze.
symmetrical triple touches -- these nearly always form before a clear trend... could be same direction or could be a reversal. Depends on context but this is the main entry that provides an edge.
11:28 -- double bottom with 5 am low -- rangebound strategy is on -- had to be willing to take the lows -- knowing signals were weak but not heavy -- bounced 25 ticks with no heat on the db pattern that is so common on Fed days -- no conviction so take the test area.
now we're back to yesterday's close / value = nothing to do near noon time -- chop and drop but no big moves.
Range day
Only trades that paid well were double tops and bottoms -- there were THREE good trades.
Rangebound --
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