/gc -- nailed the bottom at clear support -- had a trade for 17tick stop for 40 tick gain -- would have worked fine.
/cl -- jumpy -- up 1%
vix -7.8%
AD 1200 -- almost impossible to short.
BTU, FDX, EBAY red -- avoid.
great future trades will always feel extremely uncomfortable on entry.
/ym - nlod -- breaking
AD flat
AD red
AD -677
full reversal
AD -600
- /tf tested Fri lows -- sharp bounce.... in
chop land. no trade here.
NOV - green, call buyers.
/tf -- unchanged at close. 944
Monday, March 25, 2013
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Mar 21
pullback day
/ym -- through yesterday low, PUke candle -- 30tick swing - best trade of the day in retrospect.
AWAY - fresh high b/o
IMOS -- strong.
XHB worst sector
GG and gld -- almost breaking out - strong
GDX above 20 day
/ym 14383 -- that was a 50% retrace intraday -- 50 tick move -- in 100 tick range.
The correct action was to wait for yesterday low's to touch -- then recognize Puke Candle was stop orders -- take a responsive entry with stop at lows -- then you trail the stop up slowly -- as internals improve - you target the opening print -- and exit. and the day is OVER at 11:40 for 60 t, no heat.
That was the play. It happens all the time.
/tf and /es did not sink as low -- so recognize which market is at a key support area.
IYT below 20 day MA daily -- new lows
AD -800
UD -145
/ym -- through yesterday low, PUke candle -- 30tick swing - best trade of the day in retrospect.
AWAY - fresh high b/o
IMOS -- strong.
XHB worst sector
GG and gld -- almost breaking out - strong
GDX above 20 day
/ym 14383 -- that was a 50% retrace intraday -- 50 tick move -- in 100 tick range.
The correct action was to wait for yesterday low's to touch -- then recognize Puke Candle was stop orders -- take a responsive entry with stop at lows -- then you trail the stop up slowly -- as internals improve - you target the opening print -- and exit. and the day is OVER at 11:40 for 60 t, no heat.
That was the play. It happens all the time.
/tf and /es did not sink as low -- so recognize which market is at a key support area.
IYT below 20 day MA daily -- new lows
AD -800
UD -145
Monday, March 18, 2013
Mar 18
deep gap on Cyprus news.
Big jump around 3 am -- euro open -- partial gap fill.
/tf 937 -- from 951 fri high.
/ym 130 pt. range -- nearly 90t bounce off o/n lows.
slow grind back up
/tf touches 941
/gc - new high 1607
AD -1800
UD -46
HEAVY.
VIX 19% !!!
coal, nat gas really strong. BTU, REXX green.
/tf -- weakest - risk off clear.
/ym -- holding up -.3%
AD -- -1070
UD - not improving -70
/zb - flat
short /ym 14405 -- 11t stop. into VPOC.
IDT -- div payer - at 52 wk high.
stoppped /ym -- dumb
/zb -- no dTL break.
no pattern.
11 am - /tf TRIPLE TOP 944 = great short entry
/zb BREAKS DTL intraday.
AD -960
UD -83
/zb TL break
VIX 14.6%
how far can the gap close with these Signals?
IWM -- gravestone 5 min. candle. 11:32. euro close.
significant time here -- for possible shift.
AD -750
UD -84
vix 14%
/zb .75%
/tf - tests Fri lows -- sup. now resistance? Or just keep ripping?
/tf rising as internals get worse...
Got too bearish in my thinking -- grind up is relentless. Just stick with TL formations with 5 min. candles -- don't fight them til they break.
/ym nhod
/tf nhod
/es 1550 -
/ym - GREEN? lol.
Cyprus fears are b.s. -- duh -- trade price, not news. Always.
/zb plummeting new lows
XHB - n 52w h.
amzn, pcln -- BROKEN with LULU --
Leadership shifting.
nat gas, xhb names leading.
2:15 BIG SELL SIGNAL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
short /tf -- top of dTL -- 8t stop. basic entry -- Market Signals Bearish.
AD -600
UD nlod
market won't drop though...
IBD names strongish
VIX 13%
/zb near lows...
mixed up.
/zb nlod - grind up
/tf breaks dTL -- push.... 2:15
/ym NHoD - boom
got short /tf -- on double top -- with no signal - just responsive entry -- and nailed it.
coverd for 13t.
up 12 on the day. blah.
should not have covered -- just cuz "it's taking too long" is noise. Not a reason to do anything.
AD -520
UD -94
vix 12%
zb up
IBD names strongish
all sectors red.
basically - you can't just buy 'whatever. LULU, amzn, goog -- to pricey is getting hurt.
VPOC 945 area -- nothing to do here - it's value. support.
AD -700 -- /tf falls back after double top.
Had it for 40 ticks -- have to hold - you never know when your winner will pay for all your losers.
UD - dumping -191
AD -844
rainbow day.... saw it. -- just had to keep with 5 min TL..... never would have been stopped out.
/tf breaks 5min dTL -- 3:51
rexx, ctgx idt, aapl, lxk, kcap, btu, snts -- all green ... nice.
/tf -- rips AH -- breaking the TL -- but I'd would have already been out.
So today's market was:
/tf gapped down on Cyprus news overnight Trend Down until 3 am - euro open then pop -- a base was built...
9:30 open was another pop and /tf climbed to gap fill... p/b -- double top then give back most of the day session.
/ym -- similar climb to gap fill -- slight green... double top - then again -- the pullback that provided that big gain of the day.
The market continues here now -- once again breaking the dTL and climbing almost back to highs.
Market Signals were red ALL DAY so it was right to be patient and wait for a resistance -- and once again the classic double top presented itself at clear resistance -- the gap fill area.
So today was not really difficult despite the gap down which made things seem 'tricky' - but there's never anything tricky about support / resistance areas -- they form and you just wait for them to touch and then get a great R:R entry.
Big jump around 3 am -- euro open -- partial gap fill.
/tf 937 -- from 951 fri high.
/ym 130 pt. range -- nearly 90t bounce off o/n lows.
slow grind back up
/tf touches 941
/gc - new high 1607
AD -1800
UD -46
HEAVY.
VIX 19% !!!
coal, nat gas really strong. BTU, REXX green.
/tf -- weakest - risk off clear.
/ym -- holding up -.3%
AD -- -1070
UD - not improving -70
/zb - flat
short /ym 14405 -- 11t stop. into VPOC.
IDT -- div payer - at 52 wk high.
stoppped /ym -- dumb
/zb -- no dTL break.
no pattern.
11 am - /tf TRIPLE TOP 944 = great short entry
/zb BREAKS DTL intraday.
AD -960
UD -83
/zb TL break
VIX 14.6%
how far can the gap close with these Signals?
IWM -- gravestone 5 min. candle. 11:32. euro close.
significant time here -- for possible shift.
AD -750
UD -84
vix 14%
/zb .75%
/tf - tests Fri lows -- sup. now resistance? Or just keep ripping?
/tf rising as internals get worse...
Got too bearish in my thinking -- grind up is relentless. Just stick with TL formations with 5 min. candles -- don't fight them til they break.
/ym nhod
/tf nhod
/es 1550 -
/ym - GREEN? lol.
Cyprus fears are b.s. -- duh -- trade price, not news. Always.
/zb plummeting new lows
XHB - n 52w h.
amzn, pcln -- BROKEN with LULU --
Leadership shifting.
nat gas, xhb names leading.
2:15 BIG SELL SIGNAL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
short /tf -- top of dTL -- 8t stop. basic entry -- Market Signals Bearish.
AD -600
UD nlod
market won't drop though...
IBD names strongish
VIX 13%
/zb near lows...
mixed up.
/zb nlod - grind up
/tf breaks dTL -- push.... 2:15
/ym NHoD - boom
got short /tf -- on double top -- with no signal - just responsive entry -- and nailed it.
coverd for 13t.
up 12 on the day. blah.
should not have covered -- just cuz "it's taking too long" is noise. Not a reason to do anything.
AD -520
UD -94
vix 12%
zb up
IBD names strongish
all sectors red.
basically - you can't just buy 'whatever. LULU, amzn, goog -- to pricey is getting hurt.
VPOC 945 area -- nothing to do here - it's value. support.
AD -700 -- /tf falls back after double top.
Had it for 40 ticks -- have to hold - you never know when your winner will pay for all your losers.
UD - dumping -191
AD -844
rainbow day.... saw it. -- just had to keep with 5 min TL..... never would have been stopped out.
/tf breaks 5min dTL -- 3:51
rexx, ctgx idt, aapl, lxk, kcap, btu, snts -- all green ... nice.
/tf -- rips AH -- breaking the TL -- but I'd would have already been out.
So today's market was:
/tf gapped down on Cyprus news overnight Trend Down until 3 am - euro open then pop -- a base was built...
9:30 open was another pop and /tf climbed to gap fill... p/b -- double top then give back most of the day session.
/ym -- similar climb to gap fill -- slight green... double top - then again -- the pullback that provided that big gain of the day.
The market continues here now -- once again breaking the dTL and climbing almost back to highs.
Market Signals were red ALL DAY so it was right to be patient and wait for a resistance -- and once again the classic double top presented itself at clear resistance -- the gap fill area.
So today was not really difficult despite the gap down which made things seem 'tricky' - but there's never anything tricky about support / resistance areas -- they form and you just wait for them to touch and then get a great R:R entry.
Friday, March 15, 2013
March 15
Most important idea I've had in years I think is this:
The key to success in trading is -- your system must eliminate noise at your timeframe.
The confusion and fear of beginners may be due to many reasons, but very common is the fact that they are unsure when to enter or exit because there are too many signals.
It's rare to just sit there and have no compulsion to get in or out.
So what I'm doing in the past few days is -- I keep going to hourly candles -- so the charts get really smooth and suddenly -- seeing the bigger structures. And sometimes you see that there is really no structure or clear TL so you wait -- and it develops... or you focus on a different market where the TL is really clear and you can see clearly where a good location is to enter.
The first thing you want to do when trading is eliminate noise. And then, when you enter, your stop is clear -- and you don't worry about a trade going against you because you are not focusing on the 1 min. candles -- price should chop around in a known range... there's no reason to exit prematurely until a signal emanates because it broke through a larger support area defined on larger timeframe.
The key to success in trading is -- your system must eliminate noise at your timeframe.
The confusion and fear of beginners may be due to many reasons, but very common is the fact that they are unsure when to enter or exit because there are too many signals.
It's rare to just sit there and have no compulsion to get in or out.
So what I'm doing in the past few days is -- I keep going to hourly candles -- so the charts get really smooth and suddenly -- seeing the bigger structures. And sometimes you see that there is really no structure or clear TL so you wait -- and it develops... or you focus on a different market where the TL is really clear and you can see clearly where a good location is to enter.
The first thing you want to do when trading is eliminate noise. And then, when you enter, your stop is clear -- and you don't worry about a trade going against you because you are not focusing on the 1 min. candles -- price should chop around in a known range... there's no reason to exit prematurely until a signal emanates because it broke through a larger support area defined on larger timeframe.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Mar 14
Obvious patterns break - for obvious reasons.
You make the most money betting responsively - anticipating a pattern or area.
nat gas names
apc, swn - new highs
UNG - burning up
UPL, XCO -- entire sector huge.
AD 822
UD 50
Trend UP.
/6e-- hit the target -- 40 ticks but exited too early...
/es hit top of obvious channel and traders are shorting or won't get long until it slides down in time or price correction.
obvious...
keep it simple.
/zb green
/ym - double top
/tf double top
SNTS, MX, REXX, EDAP, SWN -- winners.
You make the most money betting responsively - anticipating a pattern or area.
nat gas names
apc, swn - new highs
UNG - burning up
UPL, XCO -- entire sector huge.
AD 822
UD 50
Trend UP.
/6e-- hit the target -- 40 ticks but exited too early...
/es hit top of obvious channel and traders are shorting or won't get long until it slides down in time or price correction.
obvious...
keep it simple.
/zb green
/ym - double top
/tf double top
SNTS, MX, REXX, EDAP, SWN -- winners.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Mar 12.
premarket weak.
/gc has a 100 tick explosion to nearly 1600 at 7 am
/si even stronger.
Something shifted here. GDX best etf premarket.
/zb strong .33%
/gc -- break out
AG - break above 10,20 ma...
paper short /ym - too early -- OFF PATTERN. Follow the rules.
/tf red-- perfect resistance at ystdy high --
ad -200
ud fading
Vix green
zb green
vix 3%
ad -380
/zb nhod
ud - negative
AD -700
/tf - touch o/n low
vix 5.4%
all signs -- bears winning.
AD -720
/tf test lows
/tf hit high of day with AD near zero -- great opp. to responsively enter the TRIPLE TOP.
Internals Matter.
Picking bottoms today may result in stinky finger.
-800 ad
Trend DOWN Day???
ALWAYS BE LOOKING FOR THE TRIPLE TOUCHES. /TF CLASSIC.
long /tf - at ystdy lows -15t stop - for volatility -- looking for 20t bounce.
short /ym on 5 min TL break.
Trend Down day signals -- ON system.
Also a triple touch.
short /tf -- break of formation wedge. 8t stop.
short /tf - again
AD -700
UD near lod
/zb breaking higher
1:50
UD nlod
short /tf - last time TL break.
Ad -750
UD -76
VIX 8.2%
/zb up strong
Trend is Down -- and bears in charge.
AD -860
UD -97
took about 13 ticks /tf -- regular TL break --
very bearish internals to just hope we bounce because we been up 6 days in a row.
everyone a dip buyer...
so all buyers here are WEAK.
Don't follow the crowd -- smells like failure today for the markets.
internals worse 2:42
TRADE LOCATION.
can't force a bad trade.
internals turn coming into 3 - still weak.
/tf /ym -- /es -- closing at VPOCish area. -- range test - and middle close. bloop.
/gc has a 100 tick explosion to nearly 1600 at 7 am
/si even stronger.
Something shifted here. GDX best etf premarket.
/zb strong .33%
/gc -- break out
AG - break above 10,20 ma...
paper short /ym - too early -- OFF PATTERN. Follow the rules.
/tf red-- perfect resistance at ystdy high --
ad -200
ud fading
Vix green
zb green
vix 3%
ad -380
/zb nhod
ud - negative
AD -700
/tf - touch o/n low
vix 5.4%
all signs -- bears winning.
AD -720
/tf test lows
/tf hit high of day with AD near zero -- great opp. to responsively enter the TRIPLE TOP.
Internals Matter.
Picking bottoms today may result in stinky finger.
-800 ad
Trend DOWN Day???
ALWAYS BE LOOKING FOR THE TRIPLE TOUCHES. /TF CLASSIC.
long /tf - at ystdy lows -15t stop - for volatility -- looking for 20t bounce.
short /ym on 5 min TL break.
Trend Down day signals -- ON system.
Also a triple touch.
short /tf -- break of formation wedge. 8t stop.
short /tf - again
AD -700
UD near lod
/zb breaking higher
1:50
UD nlod
short /tf - last time TL break.
Ad -750
UD -76
VIX 8.2%
/zb up strong
Trend is Down -- and bears in charge.
AD -860
UD -97
took about 13 ticks /tf -- regular TL break --
very bearish internals to just hope we bounce because we been up 6 days in a row.
everyone a dip buyer...
so all buyers here are WEAK.
Don't follow the crowd -- smells like failure today for the markets.
internals worse 2:42
TRADE LOCATION.
can't force a bad trade.
internals turn coming into 3 - still weak.
/tf /ym -- /es -- closing at VPOCish area. -- range test - and middle close. bloop.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Mon 11 notes.
Conquer Fear.
red premarket?
most indices up 6 - 8 days in a ROW. Wow -- we can actually trade down?
/zb green
NBG -10% -- forgot about this one.
/gc little green.
AG -- 5% buyback. Good fundies. Run to 50 day MA is 2 pts. Nice R:R.
Gld bottomy -- but still weak.
/YM +.01% can't stop the rain.
despite only 5 tickers green premarket -- carries a lot of weight I guess.
AD -700
zb green
UD -15
internals weakening -- have to stay with it.
short /ym
AD -540
/ym - covered 4 ticks
VIX -2.4%
leaders mostly leading... mixed up here.
AD -560
UD -15
/zb green
/ym green????? wtf man
AD -600
UD -16
ad -500
UD -8
fast turn.
UD turns positive. 10:47
UD improving
short /ym -- last time 11 t stop.
UD back to negative --
/ym TOP of Range.
AD -400
/tf -- weaker than /ym - this is the market to short.
/ym -- the top was quite obvious on 15 min. chart -- everything I did today was ridiculous.
AD -179
utx, ba- nhod leading /ym
/zb -- breaking down.
Poor trading -- not following trade. Either the B/O -- going WITH the 15 min. Trend -- for 40 ticks... or wait until top of Large Resistance at 14.340 with 12t stop.
UD +15
AD -159
UD nhod
UD +30
AD -50
/ym - and break to nhigh -- daily chart.
and it hits RIGHT around NOON.
GRIND UP continues 7th day.
AD -19
UD 52 nhod
/ym nhod
AD 24
/tf 938
/es close to 1550
VIX -- 2007 low broken.
VIX -7% blam.
vix -6.8%
3 pm - big TICK drop --
triple top /ym... is it enough?
AAPL -- big jump -- never f--k with AAPL when it rampages.
AD 55 -- weak
UD 73 decent.
/zb slight red.
UD nhod -- not shorting this.
AD - FLAT
close at highs -- rip.
AD 200
UD -- nhod blast.
red premarket?
most indices up 6 - 8 days in a ROW. Wow -- we can actually trade down?
/zb green
NBG -10% -- forgot about this one.
/gc little green.
AG -- 5% buyback. Good fundies. Run to 50 day MA is 2 pts. Nice R:R.
Gld bottomy -- but still weak.
/YM +.01% can't stop the rain.
despite only 5 tickers green premarket -- carries a lot of weight I guess.
AD -700
zb green
UD -15
internals weakening -- have to stay with it.
short /ym
AD -540
/ym - covered 4 ticks
VIX -2.4%
leaders mostly leading... mixed up here.
AD -560
UD -15
/zb green
/ym green????? wtf man
AD -600
UD -16
ad -500
UD -8
fast turn.
UD turns positive. 10:47
UD improving
short /ym -- last time 11 t stop.
UD back to negative --
/ym TOP of Range.
AD -400
/tf -- weaker than /ym - this is the market to short.
/ym -- the top was quite obvious on 15 min. chart -- everything I did today was ridiculous.
AD -179
utx, ba- nhod leading /ym
/zb -- breaking down.
Poor trading -- not following trade. Either the B/O -- going WITH the 15 min. Trend -- for 40 ticks... or wait until top of Large Resistance at 14.340 with 12t stop.
UD +15
AD -159
UD nhod
UD +30
AD -50
/ym - and break to nhigh -- daily chart.
and it hits RIGHT around NOON.
GRIND UP continues 7th day.
AD -19
UD 52 nhod
/ym nhod
AD 24
/tf 938
/es close to 1550
VIX -- 2007 low broken.
VIX -7% blam.
vix -6.8%
3 pm - big TICK drop --
triple top /ym... is it enough?
AAPL -- big jump -- never f--k with AAPL when it rampages.
AD 55 -- weak
UD 73 decent.
/zb slight red.
UD nhod -- not shorting this.
AD - FLAT
close at highs -- rip.
AD 200
UD -- nhod blast.
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