Monday, March 18, 2013

Mar 18

deep gap on Cyprus news.

Big jump around 3 am --  euro open -- partial gap fill.

/tf 937  -- from 951 fri high.
/ym 130 pt. range  -- nearly 90t bounce off o/n lows.

slow grind back up

/tf touches 941

/gc - new high 1607

AD  -1800
UD  -46


VIX 19%  !!!

coal, nat gas really strong.   BTU, REXX green.

/tf -- weakest - risk off clear.

/ym -- holding up -.3%

AD -- -1070
UD - not improving -70
/zb - flat

short /ym 14405 -- 11t stop.   into VPOC.

IDT -- div payer - at 52 wk high.

stoppped /ym --   dumb
/zb -- no dTL break.

no pattern.

11 am - /tf  TRIPLE TOP 944 =  great short entry

/zb  BREAKS  DTL intraday.

AD -960
UD -83
/zb TL break
VIX  14.6% 

how far can the gap close with these Signals?

IWM -- gravestone 5 min.  candle. 11:32.   euro close. 

significant time here -- for possible shift.

AD -750
UD -84
vix  14%
/zb  .75%

/tf - tests Fri lows -- sup. now resistance?   Or just keep ripping? 

/tf  rising as internals get worse...

 Got too bearish in my thinking --  grind up is relentless.  Just stick with TL formations with 5 min. candles -- don't fight them til they break.

/ym nhod
/tf nhod

/es  1550  -
/ym - GREEN?  lol.

Cyprus fears are b.s.  -- duh -- trade price, not news.   Always.

/zb  plummeting  new lows

XHB - n 52w h.

amzn, pcln --   BROKEN with LULU --

Leadership shifting.  

nat gas, xhb names leading. 

2:15  BIG SELL SIGNAL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

short  /tf -- top of dTL -- 8t stop.  basic entry -- Market Signals Bearish. 

AD -600
UD nlod

market won't drop though...

IBD names strongish
VIX 13%
/zb near lows...

mixed up.

/zb  nlod  -  grind up

/tf  breaks  dTL -- push....  2:15

/ym NHoD  - boom

got  short /tf -- on double top -- with no signal - just responsive entry -- and nailed it.

coverd for 13t.

up 12 on the day.   blah.

should not have covered -- just cuz "it's taking too long" is noise.  Not a reason to do anything.

AD -520
UD -94
vix 12%
zb up

IBD names strongish
all sectors red.

basically - you can't just buy 'whatever.  LULU, amzn, goog -- to pricey is getting hurt.

VPOC  945 area -- nothing to do here - it's value.    support.

AD -700 --  /tf falls back  after double top.

Had it for 40 ticks -- have to hold - you never know when your winner will pay for all your losers.

UD - dumping -191

AD -844

rainbow day....  saw it. -- just had to keep with 5 min TL.....  never would have been stopped out.

/tf  breaks  5min dTL -- 3:51

rexx, ctgx idt, aapl, lxk, kcap, btu, snts -- all green ... nice.

/tf -- rips  AH -- breaking the TL -- but I'd would have already been out.

So today's market was:

/tf  gapped down on Cyprus news overnight Trend Down until 3 am - euro open then pop -- a base was built...

9:30 open was another pop and /tf climbed to gap fill... p/b  -- double top then give back most of the day session.

/ym -- similar climb to gap fill -- slight green... double top - then again -- the pullback that provided that big gain of the day.

The market continues here now -- once again breaking the dTL and climbing almost back to highs.

Market Signals were red ALL DAY so it was right to be patient and wait for a resistance -- and once again the classic double top presented itself at clear resistance -- the gap fill area.

So today was not really difficult despite the gap down which made things seem 'tricky' - but there's never anything tricky about support / resistance areas -- they form and you just wait for them to touch and then get a great  R:R entry.

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