Tuesday, January 25, 2011


I sometimes like to trade surprises.   Today I bought some SVNT when it was announced they have a new CEO.  The CEO used to work for Lilly and may be a good guy to help sell the company.  SVNT chart is very weak -- so it's not pretty.  I'm already losing money...   However, volume is strong today so I'm going to hold on -- assuming some bigger institutions are going to get interested.  SVNT has a huge short position -- so they may be forced to cover.  Either way, I have set a stop to limit my losses.  I thought LGF was a great buy when an insider bought over $5 million worth at 6.50  -- LGF now trades for 6.10.

If you assume things are going to go wrong every time, you'll likely minimize the loss when they do go wrong.  SVNT seems like a great idea -- down at the bottom, with a surprise CEO and shorts trapped.  And yet... don't ever assume the market will do something.  It's built to fool expectations.  So always expect the worst.  Then you can never be disappointed.

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