Well -- this was a fine month indeed.
I doubt it will ever be quite so easy. I traded back in 99-'00 -- the net bubble days. I'm guessing many younger traders didn't. It was so easy back then -- stupid easy -- like it is now.
When this bubble ends, it'll end abruptly, without warning. It could have started today. The Fed can't keep the game going indefinitely.
Many of the stocks I rode to glory like CSGH.ob are massively overextended and put in terribly bearish candlesticks today. I sold about half my CSGH.ob the past two days but I really don't want to hold through a 30% draw down. I might though. It's a long term holding.
BSPM.ob had a massively bullish candlestick though. I sold some but now regret it. But everything looks toppy.
Some great traders I follow really seem to be more about "instinct" over some kind of formalized trading strategy. They're good at sensing things and pouncing. Or reversing course. Some of the good traders I follow have recently raised cash levels significantly. So have I. They are sensing the volatility. Today was a good example... lots of whipsaw and a red day -- back to back.
Look at the $VIX chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p83158616956
If that were a stock -- I'd buy it -- it's right on the cusp of a huge breakout. I tried shorting on Monday and it was a disaster but once again -- I was merely one day early. I usually just panic too early.
All in all, I'm kind of exhausted today. I feel like taking a day off. The volatility is making me edgy. I feel like every stock is a big trap waiting to suck me in.
I still would like to make one big day trade this week. But maybe I shouldn't push my luck. I will just be patient, that's all. I don't need to be trading.
Some names I like for long term at nice levels: EGMI.ob I will buy more if it tanks. Great story. But right now -- I'll just be patient and see if the market provides any slam dunk set ups I can take for a short term trade.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Daily Charts
Lately it seems, all the big volume days are down days.
Definitely feeling cautious here. Although I expect a decent enough finish on last day of quarter. But today is a real failure for bulls. There are lots of sellers out there today. I doubt they go away tomorrow.
Definitely feeling cautious here. Although I expect a decent enough finish on last day of quarter. But today is a real failure for bulls. There are lots of sellers out there today. I doubt they go away tomorrow.
Get Cautious
Not a great day -- I made several very dumb moves again -- fortunately for minimal losses.
I've had several great days in a row. It's very easy to feel 'blessed' and go out and buy any old sack of shit stock and assume it will rise like recent winners. That never happens.
Market is bouncy and unpredictable lately. My take on short term moves has been perfect, as long as you did the exact opposite of my calls.
My 'pump' screen is very red here. Today is not a good sign -- the dollar is down hard but the markets still can't rally.
For the most part, though, I do best when I mostly ignore the markets and focus on my stocks.
I've had several great days in a row. It's very easy to feel 'blessed' and go out and buy any old sack of shit stock and assume it will rise like recent winners. That never happens.
Market is bouncy and unpredictable lately. My take on short term moves has been perfect, as long as you did the exact opposite of my calls.
My 'pump' screen is very red here. Today is not a good sign -- the dollar is down hard but the markets still can't rally.
For the most part, though, I do best when I mostly ignore the markets and focus on my stocks.
ENDP on my own
I really have not found anyone that like ENDP on the web.
It's a big position in my managed account. It looks cheap. I do know a little bit about them. I know Percodan and Percoset are big sellers but might lose patent in a few years. I know Lectec is suing them and JNJ for patent infringement on some kind of patches.
This is one of those value names that stays very low I suppose because the growth is limited. HITK seems to be the 'expensive' looking name that is outperforming. I liked SEPR at 17 too -- even though I couldn't find anyone anywhere that liked it too. Eventually SEPR got the buyout at 23. I'll trust myself on ENDP. It's one of the only ideas that came purely from my own research/screening procedure. My target is around $30/share.
It's a big position in my managed account. It looks cheap. I do know a little bit about them. I know Percodan and Percoset are big sellers but might lose patent in a few years. I know Lectec is suing them and JNJ for patent infringement on some kind of patches.
This is one of those value names that stays very low I suppose because the growth is limited. HITK seems to be the 'expensive' looking name that is outperforming. I liked SEPR at 17 too -- even though I couldn't find anyone anywhere that liked it too. Eventually SEPR got the buyout at 23. I'll trust myself on ENDP. It's one of the only ideas that came purely from my own research/screening procedure. My target is around $30/share.
still going
BSPM.ob did a little hop.
My people's pick me a winner once again. I know very little about BSPM.ob Basically what I know is: they are a drug company in China. But once again, the power of the net provides another big win.
My people's pick me a winner once again. I know very little about BSPM.ob Basically what I know is: they are a drug company in China. But once again, the power of the net provides another big win.
My Favorite Favorites...
The stocks I own list is ordered, more or less, by the names I like the best to 'worst'. The last few names are stocks that I still love -- but may only be short term holds so they may not be on the list long.
If by chance someone were to buy based on my holdings, I recommend you do some research first obviously and as usual: I make no recommendations. You could lose everything.
I've already made over 100% on CSGH.ob. It's definitely much more risky now.
And INSM is definitely very risky. Perhaps I'll list my purchase prices so people can see when I got in.
If by chance someone were to buy based on my holdings, I recommend you do some research first obviously and as usual: I make no recommendations. You could lose everything.
I've already made over 100% on CSGH.ob. It's definitely much more risky now.
And INSM is definitely very risky. Perhaps I'll list my purchase prices so people can see when I got in.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The Power of the Net
I doubt there's anyone even reading this blog. But if there is, you should. Look, there are very few super gurus out there and those that are super are probably not blogging and if they are, they're probably charging $50/month. What's up with that?
What I do is browse through about 20 different sites each day. I keep track of about 30 or 40 good investors that post on various sites. Then I do my own research and select what I think are the best ideas. Right now, the smartest people I follow very much like Chinese value microcaps. In general, I think value investing offers the most reward with the least amount of stress so I like to stick with value. I also like to trade but my trading tends to get me into trouble. However, the next group of really successful investors I follow are active investors. So I tend to allocate the bulk of my money to value stocks and play around with the rest.
Today I sold my CPQQ.ob in my trading portfolio for over $900 profit. I held it for less than a week so I met my goal for the week. I made a lot more of course in my longer term holdings. My mom's portfolio had a monster day today, despite being 50% in cash and the indexes down. Those China microcap names were huge.
In fact, I usually feel kind of sick to my stomach after making so much money so fast. I feel like I'm doing something illegal. I also feel like tomorrow my entire portfolio is going to drop 50%. I don't have the right psychology to press my gains. I sold a chunk of CSGH today to lock in the gains. It's still a big position.
But the point I want to make is that all my success is owed to other people. By following so many small time traders, I become a much more effective investor. The whole Internet works for me. And I work for you. All you have to do is read my ideas. It's really that simple. The synergy of the net is awesome. Twitter is the best tool for traders the 'net has ever created and what's so great is that all of it is free. Wall Street is run by thieves who screw their clients over, chisel everyone for fees, pay themselves big bonuses, and cry for bailouts when they fail.
Fuck Wall Street.
Together, us little guys with $5 grand or $100 grand or $1 million can outperform every year. We don't have to pay those fuckers a dime. And the more we work together, anonymous bloggers or friends or whatever, the more we can win.
I'm never going to start charging (like anyone would pay). I'm not even going to set up those stupid advertisements on this page. This is just a personal journal in a public space. Despite making a half dozen mistakes already in public, I can already feel myself thinking a little clearer. Maybe you can too.
Anyways, I'm rambling. Tomorrow I'm going to spend most of the day with my kid so I'm just letting things go. Not surprisingly, my portfolio often does even better when I'm not around to place stupid bullshit trades like SDS and QID. (Never again!) Good luck to you too. Let's finish this year with a blast of fresh profits.
What I do is browse through about 20 different sites each day. I keep track of about 30 or 40 good investors that post on various sites. Then I do my own research and select what I think are the best ideas. Right now, the smartest people I follow very much like Chinese value microcaps. In general, I think value investing offers the most reward with the least amount of stress so I like to stick with value. I also like to trade but my trading tends to get me into trouble. However, the next group of really successful investors I follow are active investors. So I tend to allocate the bulk of my money to value stocks and play around with the rest.
Today I sold my CPQQ.ob in my trading portfolio for over $900 profit. I held it for less than a week so I met my goal for the week. I made a lot more of course in my longer term holdings. My mom's portfolio had a monster day today, despite being 50% in cash and the indexes down. Those China microcap names were huge.
In fact, I usually feel kind of sick to my stomach after making so much money so fast. I feel like I'm doing something illegal. I also feel like tomorrow my entire portfolio is going to drop 50%. I don't have the right psychology to press my gains. I sold a chunk of CSGH today to lock in the gains. It's still a big position.
But the point I want to make is that all my success is owed to other people. By following so many small time traders, I become a much more effective investor. The whole Internet works for me. And I work for you. All you have to do is read my ideas. It's really that simple. The synergy of the net is awesome. Twitter is the best tool for traders the 'net has ever created and what's so great is that all of it is free. Wall Street is run by thieves who screw their clients over, chisel everyone for fees, pay themselves big bonuses, and cry for bailouts when they fail.
Fuck Wall Street.
Together, us little guys with $5 grand or $100 grand or $1 million can outperform every year. We don't have to pay those fuckers a dime. And the more we work together, anonymous bloggers or friends or whatever, the more we can win.
I'm never going to start charging (like anyone would pay). I'm not even going to set up those stupid advertisements on this page. This is just a personal journal in a public space. Despite making a half dozen mistakes already in public, I can already feel myself thinking a little clearer. Maybe you can too.
Anyways, I'm rambling. Tomorrow I'm going to spend most of the day with my kid so I'm just letting things go. Not surprisingly, my portfolio often does even better when I'm not around to place stupid bullshit trades like SDS and QID. (Never again!) Good luck to you too. Let's finish this year with a blast of fresh profits.
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