Wednesday, September 30, 2009

October Cometh

Well -- this was a fine month indeed.

I doubt it will ever be quite so easy.  I traded back in 99-'00 -- the net bubble days.  I'm guessing many younger traders didn't.  It was so easy back then -- stupid easy -- like it is now.

When this bubble ends, it'll end abruptly, without warning.  It could have started today.  The Fed can't keep the game going indefinitely.

Many of the stocks I rode to glory like CSGH.ob are massively overextended and put in terribly bearish candlesticks today.  I sold about half my CSGH.ob the past two days but I really don't want to hold through a 30% draw down.  I might though.  It's a long term holding.

BSPM.ob had a massively bullish candlestick though.  I sold some but now regret it.  But everything looks toppy.

Some great traders I follow really seem to be more about "instinct" over some kind of formalized trading strategy.  They're good at sensing things and pouncing.  Or reversing course.  Some of the good traders I follow have recently raised cash levels significantly.  So have I.   They are sensing the volatility.  Today was a good example...  lots of whipsaw and a red day -- back to back.  

Look at the $VIX chart:$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p83158616956

If that were a stock -- I'd buy it -- it's right on the cusp of a huge breakout.  I tried shorting on Monday and it was a disaster but once again -- I was merely one day early.  I usually just panic too early.

All in all, I'm kind of exhausted today.  I feel like taking a day off.  The volatility is making me edgy.  I feel like every stock is a big trap waiting to suck me in.

I still would like to make one big day trade this week.  But maybe I shouldn't push my luck.  I will just be patient, that's all.  I don't need to be trading.

Some names I like for long term at nice levels:  EGMI.ob     I will buy more if it tanks.  Great story.  But right now -- I'll just be patient and see if the market provides any slam dunk set ups I can take for a short term trade.

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