/tf -1.28% premarket -- huge 12 point move overnight.
Entire rally from yesterday wiped out and more.
Daily charts are below 10 day MA -- and that's the major trend. So all up moves - like yesterday's are fleeting moves because they are fueled by short term timeframe traders. Longer term players are distributing and can't find size up there.
99 and 34 MAs on 1 min charts are trending down nicely on virtually all markets. (except /zb !) so there's no reason to jump in long. Especially not so fast.
/cl has a 5/34 x-over after dropping under 88. There will be bounces. But trading long while the 99 MA is on top is tough without clear divergent behavior. Trend fighting.
/cl -- -1.5% to 87.31 -- death trap to longs hoping for a huge bounce. Early is wrong.
/cl -2% under 87 -- hit 86.68. Still in sharp downtrend. No relief.
5/34 x-over on /tf -- 809.80ish. This was the 3rd xover , other 2 were immediate reversals.
So going to open deep in the hole. Must follow rules. Could be tricky.
/tf 810.1 99 MA on bottom -- so officially uptrend on smallest timeframe. Price pays all the time.
/tf -- b/o and small double bottom pattern -- before 20 tick POP in 2 minutes.. same old pattern.
Trend Down Day signals -- but possibly oversold on major gap down (Biggest in 3 months).
Market Signals rule. /tf -- back to the abyss
Fear is powerful. Traders will act irrationally down here. Charts will be the most truth you can find. Feelings and opinions will betray you the most.
GOOG is green.
probably some ppl think gap will fill. GOOG and AMZN green (amzn flat)... but that's not much to go by.
-2031 advn-decn -- is very heavy. Need to see some improvement first before a long could work.
/6e - triple bottom 5/34 xover 10:04
advn-decn and /zb suggest small bounce here. divergent.
amzn and goog would be the right names to play.
99 MA on top is signalling the correct direction: DOWN. Keeping me out of going long.
CSTR, goog, amzn all strong though.
shorted /cl on break of wedge -- was 40 tick drop in 2 minutes... after pattern completed and broke. Simple. Still dropping too. Ended up being 80 tick move -- to 85.97 (whole #! break). Now tiny bounce.
MAs and Market Signals are clear -- trend down horror day. No need to get emotional, predict, overthink, form opinions.
/cl 5 / 9 MAs - no x-over would keep you still in 86.02 now. 10:32 am.
85.69! crushed.
You know what the whole game is? Staying in winning trades as long as possible. If you have a system that does that, you win. Otherwise, you end up losing even if you win 80% of the time. Magnitude of wins must be greater, so your system must allow your winners to develop and slow to get stopped out.
Trying AMZN long ... futile. Double bottom + 5/34 xover. only -.37%
long /tf paper for 16 ticks on triple bottom pattern then 5/34 xover -- sold into first resistance area.
amazing exit -- /tf dropped all the way (15 ticks) to entry a minute later. Wonderful read intraday.
Sold AMZN for $11.25 lol profit.
/tf failure was right at the 99 MA by the way --
/cl coming off the bottom but 99 MA on top... We're in Chop Mode -- midday.
-2178 advn-decn. i guess a long time ago i'd be buying every hour hoping for a rally. Not anymore. It's a fool's game to fight the Flow.
slight bump at 11:52 --- /tf above 99 day MA but still above all.
AMZN now up .77% -- this was correct to focus on strength. CSTR also green.
divergences now... /6e strong. /tf at 806.50 -- triple top level. advn-decn off lows -- still -2100
small counterrally in effect. /6e advn-decn /tf -- possibly fading as I write: 12 noon.
99 below in /6e and now /tf almost --- short term -- up.
So now - buy /6e on dips to 99 MA.
long UCO -- risking $200 on double bottom + xover + potential news in Iran. also advn-decn improving.
/tf up 50 ticks after double botttom and 5/34 xover. Still running hard IWM at 81.
CSTR up 1.8% -- showed its hand early.
that "news about Iran" was exactly the thing you DON"T want to trade off. TF up 70 ticks on no news... UCO red... because I thought I had information that was useful.
UCO - stopped out. Of course.
missed the run... feeling lost. Head not in it.
bearish divergences appearing.
"Bearish $CL_F knows where it wants to go -- $SPX $SPY #crude -- tweeted at 1:43 pm. 85.94 (now 86.31 15 minutes later)...
If you stay long when 99 is leading from bottom -- it works. Otherwise it doesn't. This is a good rule.
/tf above 99 ma -- trending up (stay long) but double top -- so could be early warning. 5/34 xover but then negated. so Signal #3 pattern?
/tf now it's a triple top + 5/34 xover -- early short? 811.5
if trying to enter early... better to get in at the resistance area -- rather than the break.. cuz it may have to retest several more times. Not until 99 is leading from the top/bottom is it trending.
So today's lesson: Must respect the rules --- which I did not follow. /tf running to new highs.
This is about discipline and following RULES. It's why it's so hard -- you make it hard.
/tf 815 top -- what was the market trying to do? Get to resistance -- this was the 5 - MIN descending TL. Clear as day. It was the gap fill in IWM. The target was crystal clear from the start.
So always use higher timeframe to know where the market is targeting.
Moving Avgs. keep you on the right side of the trade. Longer term Targets can get you out at the top - but also keep you IN the trade to target. Market Signals hint at shifts. Patterns provide entries.
/tf looks extended as IS near a major resistance area but it is definitely not a short.
You don't have to anticipate, think, or worry if you are following a set of rules. You do have to follow the rules and it often won't feel comfortable.
Market Signals look solid here -- Dow -209 -- that's why this bounce can happen.
Did I trade well? NO. I did not respect my system
What did I learn about myself? I think I'm smarter than my system and the markets. I am not humble enough. But I think I'm humble.
what did I learn about the markets: They can really deceive you if you let it. But in reality, the markets are NOT very good at tricking you. I am good at tricking myself by not trusting the signals which are being very clear almost all the time.
/tf testing 99 MA -- still acting as support. Market Signals are turning bearishly.
AAPL -2.8%
/tf loses 99 MA -- and regains it.
closes at 813 -- More than obvious -- entire rally was simply to close the gap and nothing more.
Was actually a very good day for daytrading. Following a system will provide the most gains. Going off the cuff is disastrous.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Monday, October 22, 2012
observations:
nasdaq up with AAPL bounce.
99 period 5 min. chart flat on /tf -- we're building value at 815 - 817 -- taking a rest after Fri. plunge.
/6e rising with 34 over 99 ma on 5 min chart. (flat on 1 min chart)
trying EUO but not looking correct.
strength in CRUS< AAPL, ISRG, EXPE, PCLN, FB, FOSL, PNRA
but all 10 sectors are red.
KOL up strong.
good day for small chops and turns but not much else.
6e has had 3 lower lows / higher highs -- channel.
FXE is above 10 day MA daily chart -- so fighting an uptrend.
TLT -- stop was way too tight -- pointless.
IWM -- creates double bottom -- the next buy signal resulted in best move of day.
Always need to look for the double or triple bottom on 5 / 15 min. chart.
12 noon - terrible time to do anything.
/tf - -just broke out and pulled way back -- pure chop.
/6e channel breaks on 5 min chart -- now looks like a wedge with b/o to downside...
/tf breaks but still no new lows. AAPL up 2.5%
EUO -- up on the day. TLT would have been fine. Must allow $100 loss or don't take it. Stop should have been low of day.
SPY, IWM, QQQ below 10 day daily, now breaking 50 day MA... not rocket science... bears in control.
Market signals worsening.... /tf at lows. /tf formed a wedge during lunchtime then broke to downside -- providing nice move. 3 touch TL formation again was key.
IWM -- triple touch -- flat. Possibly supportive but no reason to think it can hold.
clear 3 touch TLs -- developed twice before each /tf plunge. Same pattern over and over.
If you can't see it, wait for it. It was clear the direction with the most power is down. It just took time intraday before it overwhelmed the daytraders.
/tf bounce after 813.10 touch. No 3 bumps, no divergent signals.... no reason to try long. Would need to see clear triple bottom.
/tf -- double bottom on 1 min chart. Not enough to get long.
at the moment: terrible place to short... but not good enough to get long... typical.
/tf -- triple bottom on 1 min chart. Not convincing but may be good for 10ticks. 813.8 entry would be in... just watching it though.
Every sector I watch is red so I'm calling this a Trend Down Day -- therefore, no long signals are valid.
/tf pops 18 ticks off the 3 bump 1 min. My own signal was valid. That's why it's a signal.
/tf has developed a clear support line trending up. STrong tick at 2:30
AAPL almost +3%f
shorting /6e is foolish.... it's green. Meanwhile, /cl is weak -- having massive trend down day. Focus on weak to short, strength to get long. THEN apply your signals.
/tf 815 -- up .05% -- nothing day . low volume. MAs are xover to bullish but not really ready to move. AAPL +3.28% was the star. It was correct to get long on its strength at the open.
/6e up .21% -- it was incorrect to hope for a big drop. /cl was the big loser.d
So main lesson today: What market is bringing its A game? AAPL was blasting off from the start in a weak market. That's what you go to for a long.
/tf now has 99 MA on 1 min chart at the low - so in an uptrend on this very short timeframe. Shorting no good until we get a signal.
big lift into the close -- 99 MA got to the bottom and it was game on. ADVN_DECN signalled strongly at 15:09 -- giving plenty of time for 30 tick move in /tf
AAPL +4% was the tell. But still required waiting until 3 PM to get it on.
/tf -- all the way to 820 -- after the green light -- so 55 ticks. Patience would have paid. But more importantly, follow the trend and MAs and signals -- they won't lead you astray.
99 period 5 min. chart flat on /tf -- we're building value at 815 - 817 -- taking a rest after Fri. plunge.
/6e rising with 34 over 99 ma on 5 min chart. (flat on 1 min chart)
trying EUO but not looking correct.
strength in CRUS< AAPL, ISRG, EXPE, PCLN, FB, FOSL, PNRA
but all 10 sectors are red.
KOL up strong.
good day for small chops and turns but not much else.
6e has had 3 lower lows / higher highs -- channel.
FXE is above 10 day MA daily chart -- so fighting an uptrend.
TLT -- stop was way too tight -- pointless.
IWM -- creates double bottom -- the next buy signal resulted in best move of day.
Always need to look for the double or triple bottom on 5 / 15 min. chart.
12 noon - terrible time to do anything.
/tf - -just broke out and pulled way back -- pure chop.
/6e channel breaks on 5 min chart -- now looks like a wedge with b/o to downside...
/tf breaks but still no new lows. AAPL up 2.5%
EUO -- up on the day. TLT would have been fine. Must allow $100 loss or don't take it. Stop should have been low of day.
SPY, IWM, QQQ below 10 day daily, now breaking 50 day MA... not rocket science... bears in control.
Market signals worsening.... /tf at lows. /tf formed a wedge during lunchtime then broke to downside -- providing nice move. 3 touch TL formation again was key.
IWM -- triple touch -- flat. Possibly supportive but no reason to think it can hold.
clear 3 touch TLs -- developed twice before each /tf plunge. Same pattern over and over.
If you can't see it, wait for it. It was clear the direction with the most power is down. It just took time intraday before it overwhelmed the daytraders.
/tf bounce after 813.10 touch. No 3 bumps, no divergent signals.... no reason to try long. Would need to see clear triple bottom.
/tf -- double bottom on 1 min chart. Not enough to get long.
at the moment: terrible place to short... but not good enough to get long... typical.
/tf -- triple bottom on 1 min chart. Not convincing but may be good for 10ticks. 813.8 entry would be in... just watching it though.
Every sector I watch is red so I'm calling this a Trend Down Day -- therefore, no long signals are valid.
/tf pops 18 ticks off the 3 bump 1 min. My own signal was valid. That's why it's a signal.
/tf has developed a clear support line trending up. STrong tick at 2:30
AAPL almost +3%f
shorting /6e is foolish.... it's green. Meanwhile, /cl is weak -- having massive trend down day. Focus on weak to short, strength to get long. THEN apply your signals.
/tf 815 -- up .05% -- nothing day . low volume. MAs are xover to bullish but not really ready to move. AAPL +3.28% was the star. It was correct to get long on its strength at the open.
/6e up .21% -- it was incorrect to hope for a big drop. /cl was the big loser.d
So main lesson today: What market is bringing its A game? AAPL was blasting off from the start in a weak market. That's what you go to for a long.
/tf now has 99 MA on 1 min chart at the low - so in an uptrend on this very short timeframe. Shorting no good until we get a signal.
big lift into the close -- 99 MA got to the bottom and it was game on. ADVN_DECN signalled strongly at 15:09 -- giving plenty of time for 30 tick move in /tf
AAPL +4% was the tell. But still required waiting until 3 PM to get it on.
/tf -- all the way to 820 -- after the green light -- so 55 ticks. Patience would have paid. But more importantly, follow the trend and MAs and signals -- they won't lead you astray.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Thursday Notes:
Flat open at 8:15.
aapl, amzn red.
BAC, EWG green.
Whole problem for years has been not allowing winners to pay for losers.
The psychology of trading trumps methodology. Inability to follow a system will always destroy a winning system. So to not make psychology the #1 focus is always a mistake.
Markets sag on claims data.
AAPL no longer leading.
VXX, /zb up -- so Market Signals clearly indicating weakness.
IWM 83.40 is the major support area to look for.
/cl also dropping fast. oil, materials were huge leaders past 5 days. May pullback.(red premarket)
Reminder: Strong names will pay, weak names will not.
Key focus today: Wait for market to hand you a lay up. The trouble for most traders is taking trades they shouldn't be taking. They hit their winners. But if you also take a bunch of losers - it's a loss. The ability to NOT take trades should not be underestimated. Boredom is a major danger for the excitement-seeking trader.
Seeking excitement is not the same as seeking profits, the two goals are in fact, inversely correlated.
/cl -- sharp drop 5 xover 34 MA on 1 min chart caught 100 tick move -- still on sell signal.
x-over signals only work when combined with key sup/res. areas on chart. Half the signals will fail or provide little profit.
High short int. == extremely sharp, volatile moves. Know your stock. Know price behavior.
mixed day -- /tf -- wide range -- spiked to 841.40 -- clear resistance area - then drops fast. Very choppy as expected. Can't wait for x-over -- it's too late in a range
EBAY, EXPE - fast winners.
Market Signals weaker -- IWM pushing down to 83.40 -- major support level. Leadership red. AAPL -1.2% QQQs almost below 10 day MA daily.
IWM - at 20 day MA daily level. could be supportish.
/tf double bottom at 835.50 - not a majorsupport level.
bot CIG - on bounce -- worst stock on my list. got 5/34 xover after touching 12 support. risking $120. Below 10 day MA daily. Really against the system. Bad habit trade.
/cl -- providing huge moves -- with a few small losses
NAV below 10 day MA on daily -- this is not a buy. Insider purchases don't change the signals.
/tf -- x-over into resistance at 839 -- may be a top but no sell signal -- nice bounce.
/tf -- shorted on 5/34 xover -- sold for 17 ticks - paper. However, it was incorrect, supposed to hold. Had two trades now .... for 40 ticks.
Market now very weak. GOOG -68 on a miss. shorting /cl on 5/34 xover.
note how NAV is weak -- holding around 20.50 -- always focus on those whole numbers.
Almost entire IBD list red.
OIH up .85% -- rigs strong. Charts were clear days before the push.
/tf == sharp chop again -- near KNOWN SuPPORT -- can take an early entry (TL break)
/tf chopped 4x -- imagine it's gonna get tighter now... this is absurd.
x-overs -- only work if you know the structure -- sup/resistance. If you don't know...it's a gamble.
more huge weakness
Why are there clear 3 touch support lines before big moves? Probably because someone knows -- and requires 3 or 5 days to accumulate a stake -- so they have a key line and buy it up -- then let it fall back down to the line.
This is why you can't buy weakness -- someone could be pushing the stock down for 7 or 8 days before ramping it. Or there is bad news. Either way -- you step aside and re enter.
So if you don't know clear support/resistance -- then buy AFTER a 3 touch line....shows support or resistance midday -- then usually break in direction of the TL as buyers/sellers overwhelm.
5/34 xovers work best at major support/res. /CL just topped at 15 min high from days ago -- then x-over results it very fast drop.
EURO - dropping fast now -- took 2 days to top out -- then finally drop -- sloppy 3 touch TL but still a TL formed before the final break.
/tf -- breaks support AH. Hmmm.
aapl, amzn red.
BAC, EWG green.
Whole problem for years has been not allowing winners to pay for losers.
The psychology of trading trumps methodology. Inability to follow a system will always destroy a winning system. So to not make psychology the #1 focus is always a mistake.
Markets sag on claims data.
AAPL no longer leading.
VXX, /zb up -- so Market Signals clearly indicating weakness.
IWM 83.40 is the major support area to look for.
/cl also dropping fast. oil, materials were huge leaders past 5 days. May pullback.(red premarket)
Reminder: Strong names will pay, weak names will not.
Key focus today: Wait for market to hand you a lay up. The trouble for most traders is taking trades they shouldn't be taking. They hit their winners. But if you also take a bunch of losers - it's a loss. The ability to NOT take trades should not be underestimated. Boredom is a major danger for the excitement-seeking trader.
Seeking excitement is not the same as seeking profits, the two goals are in fact, inversely correlated.
/cl -- sharp drop 5 xover 34 MA on 1 min chart caught 100 tick move -- still on sell signal.
x-over signals only work when combined with key sup/res. areas on chart. Half the signals will fail or provide little profit.
High short int. == extremely sharp, volatile moves. Know your stock. Know price behavior.
mixed day -- /tf -- wide range -- spiked to 841.40 -- clear resistance area - then drops fast. Very choppy as expected. Can't wait for x-over -- it's too late in a range
EBAY, EXPE - fast winners.
Market Signals weaker -- IWM pushing down to 83.40 -- major support level. Leadership red. AAPL -1.2% QQQs almost below 10 day MA daily.
IWM - at 20 day MA daily level. could be supportish.
/tf double bottom at 835.50 - not a majorsupport level.
bot CIG - on bounce -- worst stock on my list. got 5/34 xover after touching 12 support. risking $120. Below 10 day MA daily. Really against the system. Bad habit trade.
/cl -- providing huge moves -- with a few small losses
NAV below 10 day MA on daily -- this is not a buy. Insider purchases don't change the signals.
/tf -- x-over into resistance at 839 -- may be a top but no sell signal -- nice bounce.
/tf -- shorted on 5/34 xover -- sold for 17 ticks - paper. However, it was incorrect, supposed to hold. Had two trades now .... for 40 ticks.
Market now very weak. GOOG -68 on a miss. shorting /cl on 5/34 xover.
note how NAV is weak -- holding around 20.50 -- always focus on those whole numbers.
Almost entire IBD list red.
OIH up .85% -- rigs strong. Charts were clear days before the push.
/tf == sharp chop again -- near KNOWN SuPPORT -- can take an early entry (TL break)
/tf chopped 4x -- imagine it's gonna get tighter now... this is absurd.
x-overs -- only work if you know the structure -- sup/resistance. If you don't know...it's a gamble.
more huge weakness
Why are there clear 3 touch support lines before big moves? Probably because someone knows -- and requires 3 or 5 days to accumulate a stake -- so they have a key line and buy it up -- then let it fall back down to the line.
This is why you can't buy weakness -- someone could be pushing the stock down for 7 or 8 days before ramping it. Or there is bad news. Either way -- you step aside and re enter.
So if you don't know clear support/resistance -- then buy AFTER a 3 touch line....shows support or resistance midday -- then usually break in direction of the TL as buyers/sellers overwhelm.
5/34 xovers work best at major support/res. /CL just topped at 15 min high from days ago -- then x-over results it very fast drop.
EURO - dropping fast now -- took 2 days to top out -- then finally drop -- sloppy 3 touch TL but still a TL formed before the final break.
/tf -- breaks support AH. Hmmm.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
observations:
/tf - powers up strong
all Market Signals rage at open.
/tf climbs to 840 -- then a tall double top -- 2 1-minute candles... and a TL break -- leads to swift 20 tick pullback to 99 MA.
5/34 xover on 1 min charts had some nice entries for /tf -- just have to follow this nice system. Using Market Signals and DAILY CHART to figure out where it might top out -- then where it needs to test support.
guessing: 83.40 touches on p/b
bot NAV on call buying -- so far -- broke above 15 min chart. Holding. Like this one.
bot and sold ROVI near support -- but sold too soon.
dumped CIEN (Red on a strong day) -- ended up going much lower -- smart. I listened.
NAV - tempted to sell it early. That's a bad habit. Focus on something else.
your emotions will always cause you to make the worst decisions. Your system will let you perform best. Overriding emotions is the ENTIRE game.
Got off my game -- tried to buy weakness, CIEN -- lost 2x. Only strength pays. Bad habit.
ITMN -- +14% --was calling all day. That was strength. Buy price action, not opinions.
all Market Signals rage at open.
/tf climbs to 840 -- then a tall double top -- 2 1-minute candles... and a TL break -- leads to swift 20 tick pullback to 99 MA.
5/34 xover on 1 min charts had some nice entries for /tf -- just have to follow this nice system. Using Market Signals and DAILY CHART to figure out where it might top out -- then where it needs to test support.
guessing: 83.40 touches on p/b
bot NAV on call buying -- so far -- broke above 15 min chart. Holding. Like this one.
bot and sold ROVI near support -- but sold too soon.
dumped CIEN (Red on a strong day) -- ended up going much lower -- smart. I listened.
NAV - tempted to sell it early. That's a bad habit. Focus on something else.
your emotions will always cause you to make the worst decisions. Your system will let you perform best. Overriding emotions is the ENTIRE game.
Got off my game -- tried to buy weakness, CIEN -- lost 2x. Only strength pays. Bad habit.
ITMN -- +14% --was calling all day. That was strength. Buy price action, not opinions.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Observations:
gapping up
Market Signals strong to start
up: EWP, EWG on news, fcx, euro up huge, /zb down big, SPY, aapl, amzn, xlf.
No reason to consider shorting early.
/cl is wild choppy. /cl is a different beast altogether. /cl can only be traded by monitoring the major sup/res areas -- then waiting for the big moves / extension and riding it back the other way. Playing the middle is pointless.
CIG -- gapping up after a few days above 10 day MA -- daily MA rule in full effect. (follow strength!)
9:19 sell signal /tf (unsure because Market Signals are mostly green)
/zb strengthening --
gap up -- then continuation. signal was good for about 25 ticks.
Market Signals trendup strong.
stocks are always looking for support/resistance levels to overrun -- take out stops -- that's the purpose of daily movement -- to take people out at the worst times.
daily swing buys need to be held for daily swing targets -- not peanuts. Usually take 5 - 7 days to fulfill -- not an hour.
every big move has a tight consolidation pattern before it.
bot MRVL - .20 stop -- below 10 day MA is bad. Heavy call buying is good. Above 15 min. chart. So clear support area must hold 8.70 or out.
/tf double tops then pulls back 20 ticks fast -- playing straight TL breaks would work today -- really more of a range bound after the gap up.
AAPL - could buy as soon as 15 min TL was broken -- simple as that -- ran 14 pts.
LXK -- above 10 day MA today -- will it run now? My main system says yes. Made a nice multi-touch bottom before today's breakout -- so lots of accumulation lower
the market is mostly in chop until -- moving to support to resistance. Your job is to know the levels and then place a bet. You won't know the outcome, but you can lose less on the ones that fail. That's the edge. Knowing the market well, and honoring the entries/stops.
MRVL closed strong. /tf mostly flat all day.
A lot of ER.
Market Signals strong to start
up: EWP, EWG on news, fcx, euro up huge, /zb down big, SPY, aapl, amzn, xlf.
No reason to consider shorting early.
/cl is wild choppy. /cl is a different beast altogether. /cl can only be traded by monitoring the major sup/res areas -- then waiting for the big moves / extension and riding it back the other way. Playing the middle is pointless.
CIG -- gapping up after a few days above 10 day MA -- daily MA rule in full effect. (follow strength!)
9:19 sell signal /tf (unsure because Market Signals are mostly green)
/zb strengthening --
gap up -- then continuation. signal was good for about 25 ticks.
Market Signals trendup strong.
stocks are always looking for support/resistance levels to overrun -- take out stops -- that's the purpose of daily movement -- to take people out at the worst times.
daily swing buys need to be held for daily swing targets -- not peanuts. Usually take 5 - 7 days to fulfill -- not an hour.
every big move has a tight consolidation pattern before it.
bot MRVL - .20 stop -- below 10 day MA is bad. Heavy call buying is good. Above 15 min. chart. So clear support area must hold 8.70 or out.
/tf double tops then pulls back 20 ticks fast -- playing straight TL breaks would work today -- really more of a range bound after the gap up.
AAPL - could buy as soon as 15 min TL was broken -- simple as that -- ran 14 pts.
LXK -- above 10 day MA today -- will it run now? My main system says yes. Made a nice multi-touch bottom before today's breakout -- so lots of accumulation lower
the market is mostly in chop until -- moving to support to resistance. Your job is to know the levels and then place a bet. You won't know the outcome, but you can lose less on the ones that fail. That's the edge. Knowing the market well, and honoring the entries/stops.
MRVL closed strong. /tf mostly flat all day.
A lot of ER.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Observations: Higher Time Frame
/cl creates a clear descending 3 touch pattern on 5 min candles at 92.20 -- which is high for the morning then begins a nice descent, creating a triple touch TL along the way. Currently at 91.30 for 90 ticks.
Possibly going down all the way to 91.04 which is where it originally broke out -- we shall see...
Posting these comments real time.
Iran -- negotiating is bearish for oil -- so catalyst exists.
now 91.12 - almost there.
blam! all the way through to 90.80 on massive volume -- stop hunt.
One could have entered the short late at 9:02 -- entire day is OVER in 18 minutes (for 100 ticks).
90.50 -- still getting crushed.... should bounce soon.
bot JNS -- it was weak, thought insider buying would save it, stopped out.
bot AMRN -- strong on heavy call buying -- profitable immediately despite weak market. Strength pays once again.
/tf bounce -- of 30 ticks after the 3rd green 5 xover 34 -- needed to break 5 min. then double bottom -- a classic pattern I see often. Looks like topped out at resistance.
Levels are much easier to see on 5 min charts. 1-min is way too choppy.
/tf -- that bounce went all the way to resistance -- top of the morning levels. nearly 60 ticks... once again 5 min charts plot the major targets
824.9 -- that was a triple touch -- so would look for top out here.
1:30 pm: market slows way down as usual. Once again, best swing are in the morning.
34 ma over 99 ma -- trending up -- rule is -- no shorting. Which is wise so far even though AAPL is red and it would SEEM like shorting is a good idea.
shorted /tf on paper on 5/34 x-over -- felt like late entry. Set a cover 21 ticks lowered - and hit it, market immediately bounced -- was a perfect read. Market Signals were strong -- knew it couldn't die. But waited for signals and took no heat on traded.
Strong Market Signals -- realized market couldn't drop -- so it closed at the highs -- /tf touched a TL on 5/15 min chart -- higher timeframes are the targets to look for.
Possibly going down all the way to 91.04 which is where it originally broke out -- we shall see...
Posting these comments real time.
Iran -- negotiating is bearish for oil -- so catalyst exists.
now 91.12 - almost there.
blam! all the way through to 90.80 on massive volume -- stop hunt.
One could have entered the short late at 9:02 -- entire day is OVER in 18 minutes (for 100 ticks).
90.50 -- still getting crushed.... should bounce soon.
bot JNS -- it was weak, thought insider buying would save it, stopped out.
bot AMRN -- strong on heavy call buying -- profitable immediately despite weak market. Strength pays once again.
/tf bounce -- of 30 ticks after the 3rd green 5 xover 34 -- needed to break 5 min. then double bottom -- a classic pattern I see often. Looks like topped out at resistance.
Levels are much easier to see on 5 min charts. 1-min is way too choppy.
/tf -- that bounce went all the way to resistance -- top of the morning levels. nearly 60 ticks... once again 5 min charts plot the major targets
824.9 -- that was a triple touch -- so would look for top out here.
1:30 pm: market slows way down as usual. Once again, best swing are in the morning.
34 ma over 99 ma -- trending up -- rule is -- no shorting. Which is wise so far even though AAPL is red and it would SEEM like shorting is a good idea.
shorted /tf on paper on 5/34 x-over -- felt like late entry. Set a cover 21 ticks lowered - and hit it, market immediately bounced -- was a perfect read. Market Signals were strong -- knew it couldn't die. But waited for signals and took no heat on traded.
Strong Market Signals -- realized market couldn't drop -- so it closed at the highs -- /tf touched a TL on 5/15 min chart -- higher timeframes are the targets to look for.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
thoughts:
Traded ESV.
First trade, entry was just based on break of 5 minute candles but the actual entry was not at a clear support area on the 15 minute chart. This trade broke down as the overall market was weak.
I chose ESV because it was above the 10 day MA daily.
ESV traded down to a clear support area. (A breakout area from a few days earlier.) It tapped it 3 times.
I bought it again with a tight stop.
This entry went on to rise .50 but I sold too soon for .25 instead of waiting for even number resistance at 55.00.
/tf moved like I thought. Wide range in the morning with one big push up to even number 83 and then trend down all the way past 820 and then chop around 820 for last 2 hours.
Key points: Using 5 minute candles to wait for the true support/resistance areas to find the best entries.
These major levels only get hit once a day and provide outsized rewards with little risk. Good trading means less trading with better results.
First trade, entry was just based on break of 5 minute candles but the actual entry was not at a clear support area on the 15 minute chart. This trade broke down as the overall market was weak.
I chose ESV because it was above the 10 day MA daily.
ESV traded down to a clear support area. (A breakout area from a few days earlier.) It tapped it 3 times.
I bought it again with a tight stop.
This entry went on to rise .50 but I sold too soon for .25 instead of waiting for even number resistance at 55.00.
/tf moved like I thought. Wide range in the morning with one big push up to even number 83 and then trend down all the way past 820 and then chop around 820 for last 2 hours.
Key points: Using 5 minute candles to wait for the true support/resistance areas to find the best entries.
These major levels only get hit once a day and provide outsized rewards with little risk. Good trading means less trading with better results.
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