Flat open at 8:15.
aapl, amzn red.
BAC, EWG green.
Whole problem for years has been not allowing winners to pay for losers.
The psychology of trading trumps methodology. Inability to follow a system will always destroy a winning system. So to not make psychology the #1 focus is always a mistake.
Markets sag on claims data.
AAPL no longer leading.
VXX, /zb up -- so Market Signals clearly indicating weakness.
IWM 83.40 is the major support area to look for.
/cl also dropping fast. oil, materials were huge leaders past 5 days. May pullback.(red premarket)
Reminder: Strong names will pay, weak names will not.
Key focus today: Wait for market to hand you a lay up. The trouble for most traders is taking trades they shouldn't be taking. They hit their winners. But if you also take a bunch of losers - it's a loss. The ability to NOT take trades should not be underestimated. Boredom is a major danger for the excitement-seeking trader.
Seeking excitement is not the same as seeking profits, the two goals are in fact, inversely correlated.
/cl -- sharp drop 5 xover 34 MA on 1 min chart caught 100 tick move -- still on sell signal.
x-over signals only work when combined with key sup/res. areas on chart. Half the signals will fail or provide little profit.
High short int. == extremely sharp, volatile moves. Know your stock. Know price behavior.
mixed day -- /tf -- wide range -- spiked to 841.40 -- clear resistance area - then drops fast. Very choppy as expected. Can't wait for x-over -- it's too late in a range
EBAY, EXPE - fast winners.
Market Signals weaker -- IWM pushing down to 83.40 -- major support level. Leadership red. AAPL -1.2% QQQs almost below 10 day MA daily.
IWM - at 20 day MA daily level. could be supportish.
/tf double bottom at 835.50 - not a majorsupport level.
bot CIG - on bounce -- worst stock on my list. got 5/34 xover after touching 12 support. risking $120. Below 10 day MA daily. Really against the system. Bad habit trade.
/cl -- providing huge moves -- with a few small losses
NAV below 10 day MA on daily -- this is not a buy. Insider purchases don't change the signals.
/tf -- x-over into resistance at 839 -- may be a top but no sell signal -- nice bounce.
/tf -- shorted on 5/34 xover -- sold for 17 ticks - paper. However, it was incorrect, supposed to hold. Had two trades now .... for 40 ticks.
Market now very weak. GOOG -68 on a miss. shorting /cl on 5/34 xover.
note how NAV is weak -- holding around 20.50 -- always focus on those whole numbers.
Almost entire IBD list red.
OIH up .85% -- rigs strong. Charts were clear days before the push.
/tf == sharp chop again -- near KNOWN SuPPORT -- can take an early entry (TL break)
/tf chopped 4x -- imagine it's gonna get tighter now... this is absurd.
x-overs -- only work if you know the structure -- sup/resistance. If you don't know...it's a gamble.
more huge weakness
Why are there clear 3 touch support lines before big moves? Probably because someone knows -- and requires 3 or 5 days to accumulate a stake -- so they have a key line and buy it up -- then let it fall back down to the line.
This is why you can't buy weakness -- someone could be pushing the stock down for 7 or 8 days before ramping it. Or there is bad news. Either way -- you step aside and re enter.
So if you don't know clear support/resistance -- then buy AFTER a 3 touch line....shows support or resistance midday -- then usually break in direction of the TL as buyers/sellers overwhelm.
5/34 xovers work best at major support/res. /CL just topped at 15 min high from days ago -- then x-over results it very fast drop.
EURO - dropping fast now -- took 2 days to top out -- then finally drop -- sloppy 3 touch TL but still a TL formed before the final break.
/tf -- breaks support AH. Hmmm.