Monday, October 22, 2012


nasdaq up with AAPL bounce.

99 period  5 min. chart flat on /tf -- we're building value at 815 - 817  --  taking a rest after Fri. plunge.

/6e  rising    with   34 over 99 ma  on 5 min chart.   (flat on 1 min chart)

trying  EUO  but not looking correct. 


but all 10 sectors are red. 

KOL up strong.

good day for small chops and turns but not much else.

6e  has had 3 lower lows / higher highs -- channel.

FXE is above 10 day MA  daily chart -- so fighting an uptrend.

TLT -- stop was way too tight -- pointless.

IWM -- creates  double bottom --  the next buy signal resulted in best move of day. 

Always need to look for the double or triple bottom on 5 / 15 min. chart. 

12 noon - terrible time to do anything. 

/tf - -just broke out and pulled way back -- pure chop.

/6e  channel breaks  on 5 min chart  -- now looks like a wedge with b/o to downside...

/tf breaks but still no new lows.    AAPL up 2.5%

EUO -- up on the day.   TLT would have been fine.  Must allow $100 loss or don't take it.  Stop should have been low of day.

SPY, IWM, QQQ  below 10 day daily, now breaking 50 day MA... not rocket science... bears in control.

Market signals worsening....  /tf at lows.     /tf formed a wedge during lunchtime then broke to downside -- providing nice move.     3 touch TL formation again was key.

IWM -- triple touch -- flat.   Possibly supportive but no reason to think it can hold.

clear  3 touch TLs -- developed twice before each /tf plunge.  Same pattern over and over.

If you can't see it, wait for it.  It was clear the direction with the most power is down.  It just took time intraday before it overwhelmed the daytraders.

/tf  bounce after 813.10  touch.   No 3 bumps,  no divergent signals.... no reason to try long.  Would need to see clear triple bottom.

/tf -- double bottom on 1 min chart.  Not enough to get long.

at the moment:  terrible place to short... but not good enough to get long... typical.

/tf -- triple bottom on 1 min chart.   Not convincing but may be good for 10ticks.  813.8 entry would be in... just watching it though.

Every sector I watch is red so I'm calling this a Trend Down Day -- therefore, no long signals are valid.

/tf  pops  18 ticks off the 3 bump 1 min.  My own signal was valid.  That's why it's a signal.

/tf  has developed a clear support line trending up.   STrong tick at 2:30

AAPL  almost +3%f

shorting /6e is foolish.... it's green.  Meanwhile,  /cl is weak -- having massive trend down day.  Focus on weak to short, strength to get long.  THEN apply your signals.

/tf  815 --  up .05% --  nothing day .  low volume.      MAs are xover to bullish but not really ready to move.   AAPL    +3.28% was the star.   It was correct to get long on its strength at the open.

/6e  up .21% -- it was incorrect to hope for a big drop.    /cl was the big loser.d

So main lesson today:  What market is bringing its A game?   AAPL was blasting off from the start in a weak market.   That's what you go to for a long.

/tf  now has 99 MA on  1 min chart at the low - so in an uptrend on this very short timeframe.  Shorting no good until we get a signal.

big lift into the close --    99 MA got to the bottom and it was game on.  ADVN_DECN  signalled strongly at 15:09 -- giving plenty of time for 30 tick move in /tf

AAPL  +4%   was the tell.   But still required waiting until 3 PM to get it on.

/tf -- all the way to 820 -- after the green light -- so 55 ticks.  Patience would have paid.  But more importantly, follow the trend and MAs and signals -- they won't lead you astray.

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