Monday, November 16, 2009

Horrible again:

Another quite terrible day...

 almost all my small caps were red and I lost a bunch on inverse ETFs... although made a few smaller gains later with them....

 I know the market is going down soon -- I'm just too early.

 Now:  AMZN put in a topping stick and $VIX has 3 bumps and the futures are down so I am NOW, finally, seeing the weakness about to unfold.  Today was saved once again by the falling dollar which ignited the hyperinflation rally... but this is going to end in a fast blast of selling with no bids on the way down.  I've seen this game before.  I will likely take more hits on the smallcaps.  Unfortunately I am (of course) carrying no inverse ETFs overnight but I am prepared to play  SRS/FAZ/TZA/ERY tomorrow.

 The markets are setting up for an epic drop.  I am about 50% cash so I'm prepared.   Bulls are full of big balls -- like they own this market.  It's such a psyhological trip.  At this point -- the markets rise because nobody can even IMAGINE a fall.  So it's easy to sell to the next sucker. Until the break.   You have to wait for the break.

  The first rule of trading is being early is the same as being wrong.  You wait and wait and wait until it breaks.  Then you press.

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