Thursday, November 12, 2009

I Can See Clearly:

Today I sold all my TELT which was up about 90% today -- it saved the day.

 I am mostly holding just a few core positions now.  NEP is the largest.  It's been lagging and the ER is coming up on Monday.  My gut, unfortunately, based on the chart, is telling me it's going to be a shitty ER.  I'm holding it because it looks good on paper, the chart is still holding support (Barely), and almost everyone i follow and trust likes it for the long term.

However, my chart readings of the major indexes are now extremely bearish.  I can see clearly now, and there's clearly going to be a big correction coming -- starting with tomorrow's gap down open.  I do have a lot of cash but I know I'm going to get hit anyway.

 My managed account is about 50% cash.  NEP and SPPI and YUII are some big positions.

 What this market is all about is propping up demand when there is no demand.  Well, there is some demand.  But you can see that the big dogs are doing okay (amzn, wmt, aapl) but not much for the rest.

 I'm getting better at gauging entry prices -- although today I started a new position in YUII only to watch it get destroyed.

 UUP looks like it's ready to take off
 AIG looks like it's about to drop a bomb.
 XLF is ready to cave
oil prices appear set to plummet another 2 or 3 bucks.
It's like a perfect storm has set up on all the charts I review tonight.

 I argue it's impossible, simply impossible, for the markets to not take a huge gap down hit and big drop tomorrow.

  The best set up are QID and SDS.

  Well -- I have a lot of cash.  I need to hold onto it and wait to see how far down this market breaks.  It's almost as if the entire economy depends on a strong market. If this crashes, I think the repercussions will be so incredibly dire.  Expect sharp drops and continued strength end of day as the powers paint the tape up each red day to stave off panic.

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