triple bottom /tf at 5 min sup. area -- long for counterbounce to 99 MA -- risk 6 ticks.
breaking lower -- this was against the main concept of always trading with the Flow.
Market Trend DOWN day premarket signals. Dangerous day to countertrade.
note how /es went above 1430 overnight. Markets tend to 'superspike' right before the huge drops all the time now. Waiting for 99 MA to slope in the direction of the trade captures profits with little heat.
/tf 813 -- Heavy pressure to downside.. MAs fanned out.
real IWM support is under 81 , now 81.38. This is a VPOC on 15 min chart so may churn here, build up hope before 2nd wave down.
813 puke candle -- so now it churns here 815.3... Target is 99 MA but low probability trades here - chop area.
Market Signals dictate whether chart patterns/rules should be followed. /cl pushes above 99 MA - trending up -- but we must look at the context. Trend Down Signals means we must treat a single market acting strong with suspicion. And indeed after a single 1 min pop -- retrace.
And /cl - new lows -- crashing.
/cl - was actually a great trade after the TL broke -- 50 ticks within minutes and sinking fast. Know the Trend, wait for the pullbacks/rips -- reenter on the failure.
Context is king -- 60 ticks after /cl broke its attempted push.
stops: always adjust to current volatility.
Dow -213 Market Signals quite clear -- Pain. but IWM under 81 --- MAJOR SUPPORT.
In the hole now.
/tf 806 -- support at 800 now.
99 MA and Market Signals saying NO to countertrading.
still no PUKE from /tf -- grinding lower -- iwm 80.50 major triple bottom on 15 m.
AMRN -- still green.
Context: Market Signals Dow -303 ! These unusual days happen and one should be prepared. Rules Still Apply -- but too often people think there "has to be a bounce" -- well, do the charts say so? The charts, more than ever, (always always) will show you. Even if the market is down 2% -- it doesn't have to bounce. It doesn't have to do anything.
AAPL is down 3.5% way under its 200 day MA.
see ppl getting long... why? The market signals are extreme. Dow -329. This is several deviations outside normal... mean reversion strategies should be put aside.
Puke Candles on AAPL and /tf and /es
IWM - touched 200 day on Daily Chart. May chop here...
What if you ONLY went long above 99 ma and only went short below 99?
Puke Candles -- may hold the line.... chop now.
/tf touched 799 a week ago -- so no surprises to bottom out just below 799.
TICK showing positive readings.... ran out of panic sellers here.
Puke Low on /es -- really nice bottom nailed.
/tf -- up TL established... pushing into 99 MA. midday chop.
Must Follow Rules Religiously at first. Be Devoted to your Rules and Money Management.
Short /tf on wedge break -- Market Signals in my favor... /zb breaks to new highs.. 7t stop.
stopped out: Problem: chop time so stop would need to be much higher -- volatility too high today for a tight stop.
aapl 558 -4.2% !!! No safe stocks in a bear market.
/tf - pops over 99 MA -- short covering rally of 30 ticks -- small tail candle but still trending up.
so - Trend Down day Market Signals but now 99 MA leading the way UP -- with mixed signals... probably best to simply wait -- and enter a short lower -- when things line up again -- for now 99 MA is support... and to short early is going against the Basic Rule of 99 MA leading the way.
You should ALWAYS be either correct for a nice gain or wrong for a small loss. Your money management rules keep you CP. How can you not be when you follow sound rules of trend trading?
99 MA is beneath... so why do you insist on making up new rules/ or taking small patterns that are noise?
If Market Signals and 1 min chart are conflicting -- Wait for Clear 3 bump patterns or wedges -- chances are we are in a countertrend chop mode and there won't be a Trend anyway.
/cl to new lows but /tf stays flat.
/tf -- sinking here -- 99 MA trending down.... the Market Signals were too strong to overcome so Wedge formed intraday.
and /tf breaks wedge to upside at 3:30ish. Strong Tick short covering...
99 MA - getting under -- so supportive despite TREND DOWN signals....mixed up here.
99 MA now supporting /tf -- no reason to be short -- break of wedge and forming base.
small consolidating /tf over 99 while in a trend down day -- required a 3 1min tails -- 3rd one led to breakdown at the lastminute.
Once again -- we see 3 touches before the move.
dow closes -312. /tf sinking at the close.
When stuck in a range -- wait for 3 touches before committing -- fade the range on the 3rd touch.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Friday, November 2, 2012
fri
fri chop is usual.
/tf fades to lows of overnight -- PUKE candle 823ish.
looking for triple bottom or wedge break and small double bottom to get long.
now 822
821.50 -- 15 min TL is around 819. 10:09 -- may bottom out
5/34 xover on /tf in the morning -- this is all you needed.
Patience -- the setup only comes 1 or 2x a day... so why frontrun? Why do anything else?
Once again -- the charts and patterns will never ever lie to you or lead you astray. Your emotions and hopes and opinions will - every time.
small double bottom /tf 818.2 -- now needs a small mini db or triple bottom to establish base.
11:24 will be 1 hour from LoD -- needs time to heal / consolidate.
double mini bottom is in. very early though...
and new lows... without a base... it's hopeless.
tried to go long /cl despite being under 99 MA -- fought the trend. Main rule violated.
10:42 - low for /tf
/tf forming h/s bottom
So often -- I'm seeing trends fail at the major sup/res. areas on the 15 min chart. This needs to be a more critical part -- integrated into the trades. IWM is breaking down - but that's obvious on the 15 min 20 day chart -- there's no support here, not even on the daily chart.
bot UCO / on xover 5/34 26.40 was a double bottom on 15 min -- major support. target would be all the way back to 27.60 for $950.
got crushed -- buying UCO.
/tf 5/34 xover signal after a triple bottom... long 819.2 paper.
/tf bump to 820.3 -- 99 MA and pullback.
/tf pinned 820. Dead money rest of day.
/zb -- the gap down on the data was filled -- opened at clear support TLT -- almost complete move back to unchanged. This is a new TRADE PATTERN. Fading major gaps into a clear previous sup/resistance area on the 15 min / daily chart.
goal: To hold for large swings into the 15 min sup/resistance area. The 15 min sup/res. areas are the only places to safely initiate trades. They hit, then wait for a double/triple bottom to emerge so you are actually going with the flow.
/tf - 815 -- collapsing advn-decn -1000 iwm high was into the 50 day MA daily - and then collapse.
major damage now despite half IBD leaders green.
/tf down to 813 --- 99 MA signalling trend down day (despite gap up).
/cl broke to last support area.
The problem with failing traders --- they don't have a clear plan. They have a partial plan, but not a complete mastery of it. So they hesitate at the moment they need to act. And miss the best trade of the day. Then they try to compensate by taking a lesser trade, which leads to further failure which leads to hesitation the next time the proper entry unfolds.
5/34 xover /tf -- but under 99 MA, no Puke Candle, no clear TL.
/tf -- double bottoming - testing LOD
813.8 long - 10tick stop double bottom. near end of day. NOPE. 99 MA is the guide. On trend days, especially, you need an absolute SOLID countertrend pattern to get long.
aapl to 577 --- this is a huge fade over 3.235 --- clearly a lot of people in pain.
did poorly: I should be taking much smaller size...
did not follow the 99 MA which was clear and present.
overtraded/revenge traded.
did not follow plan.
did not chech Higher Timeframe for real support areas. (they broke anyway).
/tf -- closes near 810.... total trend down day. The markets spiked into major resistance areas and then retraced entire post-hurricane move. The key was identifying an exhaustion move -- and then maintaining a stop that would never have been hit.
The weak trader keeps looking for reversals when in fact, the correct move all day would be to ask, when can I safely add to this winning position?
/tf fades to lows of overnight -- PUKE candle 823ish.
looking for triple bottom or wedge break and small double bottom to get long.
now 822
821.50 -- 15 min TL is around 819. 10:09 -- may bottom out
5/34 xover on /tf in the morning -- this is all you needed.
Patience -- the setup only comes 1 or 2x a day... so why frontrun? Why do anything else?
Once again -- the charts and patterns will never ever lie to you or lead you astray. Your emotions and hopes and opinions will - every time.
small double bottom /tf 818.2 -- now needs a small mini db or triple bottom to establish base.
11:24 will be 1 hour from LoD -- needs time to heal / consolidate.
double mini bottom is in. very early though...
and new lows... without a base... it's hopeless.
tried to go long /cl despite being under 99 MA -- fought the trend. Main rule violated.
10:42 - low for /tf
/tf forming h/s bottom
So often -- I'm seeing trends fail at the major sup/res. areas on the 15 min chart. This needs to be a more critical part -- integrated into the trades. IWM is breaking down - but that's obvious on the 15 min 20 day chart -- there's no support here, not even on the daily chart.
bot UCO / on xover 5/34 26.40 was a double bottom on 15 min -- major support. target would be all the way back to 27.60 for $950.
got crushed -- buying UCO.
/tf 5/34 xover signal after a triple bottom... long 819.2 paper.
/tf bump to 820.3 -- 99 MA and pullback.
/tf pinned 820. Dead money rest of day.
/zb -- the gap down on the data was filled -- opened at clear support TLT -- almost complete move back to unchanged. This is a new TRADE PATTERN. Fading major gaps into a clear previous sup/resistance area on the 15 min / daily chart.
goal: To hold for large swings into the 15 min sup/resistance area. The 15 min sup/res. areas are the only places to safely initiate trades. They hit, then wait for a double/triple bottom to emerge so you are actually going with the flow.
/tf - 815 -- collapsing advn-decn -1000 iwm high was into the 50 day MA daily - and then collapse.
major damage now despite half IBD leaders green.
/tf down to 813 --- 99 MA signalling trend down day (despite gap up).
/cl broke to last support area.
The problem with failing traders --- they don't have a clear plan. They have a partial plan, but not a complete mastery of it. So they hesitate at the moment they need to act. And miss the best trade of the day. Then they try to compensate by taking a lesser trade, which leads to further failure which leads to hesitation the next time the proper entry unfolds.
5/34 xover /tf -- but under 99 MA, no Puke Candle, no clear TL.
/tf -- double bottoming - testing LOD
813.8 long - 10tick stop double bottom. near end of day. NOPE. 99 MA is the guide. On trend days, especially, you need an absolute SOLID countertrend pattern to get long.
aapl to 577 --- this is a huge fade over 3.235 --- clearly a lot of people in pain.
did poorly: I should be taking much smaller size...
did not follow the 99 MA which was clear and present.
overtraded/revenge traded.
did not follow plan.
did not chech Higher Timeframe for real support areas. (they broke anyway).
/tf -- closes near 810.... total trend down day. The markets spiked into major resistance areas and then retraced entire post-hurricane move. The key was identifying an exhaustion move -- and then maintaining a stop that would never have been hit.
The weak trader keeps looking for reversals when in fact, the correct move all day would be to ask, when can I safely add to this winning position?
Thursday, November 1, 2012
thurs notes:
/tf -- topped out 10:30 - THEN took 2 hours -- created a triple top. Entry on first break below 99 MA was good for 50 ticks.
3 bumps - - distribution formation before the selloffs.
/tf bottomed 13:24 - still has not been an hour -- still under 99 MA -- there's no long trade here.
/tf - bounce thru 99 MA and rejected -- as I suspected. Although may keep running... but we're in a chop mode. No major sup/res. area here around 821.
-- /tf ripped back to close near highs -- Market Signals were Trend Up.
Have to be willing to respect trend days.
3 bumps - - distribution formation before the selloffs.
/tf bottomed 13:24 - still has not been an hour -- still under 99 MA -- there's no long trade here.
/tf - bounce thru 99 MA and rejected -- as I suspected. Although may keep running... but we're in a chop mode. No major sup/res. area here around 821.
-- /tf ripped back to close near highs -- Market Signals were Trend Up.
Have to be willing to respect trend days.
Monday, October 29, 2012
MONDAY RULE
/tf gapping down -- hurricane closing at 9:15
But notice -- one of the rules I created was that when trading countertrend (for a bounce), the minimum time for a base to form is ONE HOUR.
/tf bottomed at 7:30 -- tried to rise and failed.
Now, at exactly 8:30 - data came out and we see -- a HUGE tail on HUGE volume. And more importantly -- it's been 1 hour.
The market is now up 21 ticks from the low of the tail and rising.
This is a familiar, repeatable pattern. And /tf hits 804 which was my target area.
So main rule to remember -- an hour is minimum time for a bounce to occur. But still need to see long tail puke candle to mark a bottom.
But notice -- one of the rules I created was that when trading countertrend (for a bounce), the minimum time for a base to form is ONE HOUR.
/tf bottomed at 7:30 -- tried to rise and failed.
Now, at exactly 8:30 - data came out and we see -- a HUGE tail on HUGE volume. And more importantly -- it's been 1 hour.
The market is now up 21 ticks from the low of the tail and rising.
This is a familiar, repeatable pattern. And /tf hits 804 which was my target area.
So main rule to remember -- an hour is minimum time for a bounce to occur. But still need to see long tail puke candle to mark a bottom.
Friday, October 26, 2012
FRIDAY patterns:
tf lower overnight but clear pattern developed: 1 to 7 am was a 3 touch flat support line and right around 7 am -- a test back to 810 for 30 ticks. This is the same basing pattern that takes place again and again.
Market probes for value. VPOC is 812 on 5 min candles so that would be possible target.
AAPL reported -- crashed but now green at premarket.
/es at 1400 --
it's opex friday - so usually no range for last 2 hours.
/cl also established TL from 2 - 6:45 am and then a fast move.
The establishment of TLs after a sharp move precedes almost all sizeable moves.
EXPE +17%
at 7:15 -- 99 MA got on bottom -- then 80 ticks up --- 34 MA held up never breached the whole way.
IWM 82.34 is 10 day MA on daily -- so /tf could potentially spike much higher on bear rally.
820 /tf seems very far away -- but would be below 10 day MA daily on IWM. Must know what's possible.
819.3 is VAH on 5 min chart /tf. So that is certainly realistic.
/cl broke out of DT on 5 min chart. air pocket above if it runs.
cl
5/34 xover on /tf 1 min chart - looking for a short here for 15 ticks vs. 9 stop. on p/b to 99 MA.
short /6e 1.2954 -- double top on bank news ... stretched. price seeking away from value
/6e - working - short at resistance. . closed for +19 ticks near 99 MA cover. That was a good trade.
faded the crowded -- but not early! incredibly /6e - now bouncing up -- caught it almost perfect.
You are LOOKING For Trend Lines / Patterns -- wait -- they keep appearing
/tf -- 100 tick swing -- almost touched morning b/o level -- IWM 80.9 --- feels oversold but no pattern of interest yet. no double bottom, no triple. But looking for it. No need to be early.
Market Signals weak, /zb rising. and no Pattern at lows = still stay short or stay cash.
/tf - so small triple bottom forms and pop but only to 81 -- and immediately failing again. I really traded TNA for .10 which was a miracle. That pattern was TOO SMALL --
significant moves require bases of at least several hours.
Again, my PLAN needs the 99 MA to be going in the same direction. If not, all you can hope for is scalps.
/tf xover IWM 81 -- probably pin area -- Friday's act weird. But this is where you could try for a countertrade into the 99 MA at 810.3 -- almost there. And target HIT. AND , fades immediately - that was to the tick, again.
/tf sinks to 804 -- 99 MA showing the way. Entering breakdowns of 3 touch bases (when 99 MA is going that way) is usually a good trade.
804 - PUKE candle. So looking for multi-hour base
QQQ touched 200 day MA -- so it could bounce and pick up rest of indices or else they all catch up.
Tip: If you are struggling, say your trading plan out loud.... if it's hard to say it, work on it until it's not.
sideways action is not the same as going up -- that's why there are signals to rely on to keep you from NOT trading.
/tf basing here -- it's almost been 1 hour. 20 ticks above the Puke Candle to 804. Still hasn't been a 3 touch TL which is required to get long.
/tf -- there is a 5/34 xover. /tf rises into 99 MA 807... looks bouncy here.
the move from 806 to 818 required a SIX HOUR base. So maybe a half hour base is good for a 10 tick rally. That might be a good rule of thumb. If you want a big move, you want big base (and I cannot lie).
AAPL did have a more distinct triple bottom -- entry on next 5/34 xover was good for a nice rip.
.tf did not
/tf - wedge complete -- now bounce or b/down? 26 ticks possible - to bounce to last break down area. But Market Signals weakening.
LONG SIGNAL - /tf 1:31
And YES! - /tf does indeed run 26 ticks from b/o level. What would be more genius now - is if it faded right here. 806 to 808.60
As soon as the 3rd touch was formed -- a decision was made to keep breaking down or bounce, since we were oversold on Friday -- bounce was very likely. (AAPL had already bounced).
out for nearly 30 ticks. +$675 paper trading total.
99 MA is now supporting -- TREND IS UP -- on shortest timeframe /tf 1:39
/tf pushed toward 810 -- which was a more powerful magnet - now back to 808.9. A squeeze of course so needs to pullback and gear up for a new move if it's going to keep running. 810 will probably be it -- opex.
804 low was close to 803.7 low from 5 days ago -- one could have assumed it would fail there.
If someone is afraid of trading, they may be afraid of uncertainty. There is no cure since all trading is uncertain. You could trade a small amount (you should) and set your stop. Each trade is not make or break. So what are you afraid of? Great poker players fold the majority of their hands. Losing is part of the game, why make losing a source of fear? Each small loss gets you closer to the next win.
and /tf curling back down.
5/34 xover /tf -- but 99 MA underneath. This is NOT a continuation of the downtrend. We are in an uptrend on the 1 min chart (in my book) so in reality -- this dip toward the 99 MA is a buy.
Since it's confusing - best to not take it either way. Now got a 5/34 xover BUY. So chop area. Still forming a base.
sharp bounce off 99 MA -- keeps you on the right side of the force -- back to the resistance area 809
bounce off 99 Ma -- good for 30 ticks to 811 -- wow -- 99 MA really working.
AAPL -- BREAKING DOWN 2:45. That's it.
/tf 810.3 -- well no surprise -- opex targeting even number pin. So really hard to get excited. Chop for next hour very very likely.
tried to short /nq early -- just got stopped 3x -- it was pathetic trying to hit the top.
/tf 60 ticks from buy signal -- 80 from low. Hard part would have been holding it.
/es /nq -- highs both went green. Hammer day.
/nq - now 5/34 xover
/nq - dropped to 99 MA recoverd half -- there is a huge price to pay for being early though.
/tf 810 -- PIN. No surprise. The overshoot to 812 was free money after the double top with tall tails on the 1 min chart -- that was a responsive trade.
spy/nq mostly flat .. /tf rising AH -- -/45% -- outlier needs to catch up. So pin doesn't hold. 812ish.
Respecting the 99 MA is a good idea -- never looked back after botttoming.
What I did well: focused on slightly fewer stocks. Was patient.
What didn't I do: Needed to hold the winners longer -- hold for target - or raise stop and let them run.
+$595 paper trading is respectable, should have been better. But certainly shows progress.
What did I learn? Markets can bounce sharply and if you see it, there's no need to settle for partial profits for being 100% right. Ride as much as the wave to resistance as possible. There will always be multiple signals before bottoms are made.
Also realized how important long tails are -- often, quite often appearing at the bottom. Use them, wait for them when considering a bottom formation.
Market probes for value. VPOC is 812 on 5 min candles so that would be possible target.
AAPL reported -- crashed but now green at premarket.
/es at 1400 --
it's opex friday - so usually no range for last 2 hours.
/cl also established TL from 2 - 6:45 am and then a fast move.
The establishment of TLs after a sharp move precedes almost all sizeable moves.
EXPE +17%
at 7:15 -- 99 MA got on bottom -- then 80 ticks up --- 34 MA held up never breached the whole way.
IWM 82.34 is 10 day MA on daily -- so /tf could potentially spike much higher on bear rally.
820 /tf seems very far away -- but would be below 10 day MA daily on IWM. Must know what's possible.
819.3 is VAH on 5 min chart /tf. So that is certainly realistic.
/cl broke out of DT on 5 min chart. air pocket above if it runs.
cl
5/34 xover on /tf 1 min chart - looking for a short here for 15 ticks vs. 9 stop. on p/b to 99 MA.
short /6e 1.2954 -- double top on bank news ... stretched. price seeking away from value
/6e - working - short at resistance. . closed for +19 ticks near 99 MA cover. That was a good trade.
faded the crowded -- but not early! incredibly /6e - now bouncing up -- caught it almost perfect.
You are LOOKING For Trend Lines / Patterns -- wait -- they keep appearing
/tf -- 100 tick swing -- almost touched morning b/o level -- IWM 80.9 --- feels oversold but no pattern of interest yet. no double bottom, no triple. But looking for it. No need to be early.
Market Signals weak, /zb rising. and no Pattern at lows = still stay short or stay cash.
/tf - so small triple bottom forms and pop but only to 81 -- and immediately failing again. I really traded TNA for .10 which was a miracle. That pattern was TOO SMALL --
significant moves require bases of at least several hours.
Again, my PLAN needs the 99 MA to be going in the same direction. If not, all you can hope for is scalps.
/tf xover IWM 81 -- probably pin area -- Friday's act weird. But this is where you could try for a countertrade into the 99 MA at 810.3 -- almost there. And target HIT. AND , fades immediately - that was to the tick, again.
/tf sinks to 804 -- 99 MA showing the way. Entering breakdowns of 3 touch bases (when 99 MA is going that way) is usually a good trade.
804 - PUKE candle. So looking for multi-hour base
QQQ touched 200 day MA -- so it could bounce and pick up rest of indices or else they all catch up.
Tip: If you are struggling, say your trading plan out loud.... if it's hard to say it, work on it until it's not.
sideways action is not the same as going up -- that's why there are signals to rely on to keep you from NOT trading.
/tf basing here -- it's almost been 1 hour. 20 ticks above the Puke Candle to 804. Still hasn't been a 3 touch TL which is required to get long.
/tf -- there is a 5/34 xover. /tf rises into 99 MA 807... looks bouncy here.
the move from 806 to 818 required a SIX HOUR base. So maybe a half hour base is good for a 10 tick rally. That might be a good rule of thumb. If you want a big move, you want big base (and I cannot lie).
AAPL did have a more distinct triple bottom -- entry on next 5/34 xover was good for a nice rip.
.tf did not
/tf - wedge complete -- now bounce or b/down? 26 ticks possible - to bounce to last break down area. But Market Signals weakening.
LONG SIGNAL - /tf 1:31
And YES! - /tf does indeed run 26 ticks from b/o level. What would be more genius now - is if it faded right here. 806 to 808.60
As soon as the 3rd touch was formed -- a decision was made to keep breaking down or bounce, since we were oversold on Friday -- bounce was very likely. (AAPL had already bounced).
out for nearly 30 ticks. +$675 paper trading total.
99 MA is now supporting -- TREND IS UP -- on shortest timeframe /tf 1:39
/tf pushed toward 810 -- which was a more powerful magnet - now back to 808.9. A squeeze of course so needs to pullback and gear up for a new move if it's going to keep running. 810 will probably be it -- opex.
804 low was close to 803.7 low from 5 days ago -- one could have assumed it would fail there.
If someone is afraid of trading, they may be afraid of uncertainty. There is no cure since all trading is uncertain. You could trade a small amount (you should) and set your stop. Each trade is not make or break. So what are you afraid of? Great poker players fold the majority of their hands. Losing is part of the game, why make losing a source of fear? Each small loss gets you closer to the next win.
and /tf curling back down.
5/34 xover /tf -- but 99 MA underneath. This is NOT a continuation of the downtrend. We are in an uptrend on the 1 min chart (in my book) so in reality -- this dip toward the 99 MA is a buy.
Since it's confusing - best to not take it either way. Now got a 5/34 xover BUY. So chop area. Still forming a base.
sharp bounce off 99 MA -- keeps you on the right side of the force -- back to the resistance area 809
bounce off 99 Ma -- good for 30 ticks to 811 -- wow -- 99 MA really working.
AAPL -- BREAKING DOWN 2:45. That's it.
/tf 810.3 -- well no surprise -- opex targeting even number pin. So really hard to get excited. Chop for next hour very very likely.
tried to short /nq early -- just got stopped 3x -- it was pathetic trying to hit the top.
/tf 60 ticks from buy signal -- 80 from low. Hard part would have been holding it.
/es /nq -- highs both went green. Hammer day.
/nq - now 5/34 xover
/nq - dropped to 99 MA recoverd half -- there is a huge price to pay for being early though.
/tf 810 -- PIN. No surprise. The overshoot to 812 was free money after the double top with tall tails on the 1 min chart -- that was a responsive trade.
spy/nq mostly flat .. /tf rising AH -- -/45% -- outlier needs to catch up. So pin doesn't hold. 812ish.
Respecting the 99 MA is a good idea -- never looked back after botttoming.
What I did well: focused on slightly fewer stocks. Was patient.
What didn't I do: Needed to hold the winners longer -- hold for target - or raise stop and let them run.
+$595 paper trading is respectable, should have been better. But certainly shows progress.
What did I learn? Markets can bounce sharply and if you see it, there's no need to settle for partial profits for being 100% right. Ride as much as the wave to resistance as possible. There will always be multiple signals before bottoms are made.
Also realized how important long tails are -- often, quite often appearing at the bottom. Use them, wait for them when considering a bottom formation.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
thursday:
I put in a paper trade long /cl - because there was a clear TL sloping up.
Set a order to OCO at 86.58 -- and it was the top by 4 ticks -- now 86.39 -- for 78 tick overnight move. The stop was just 9 ticks away.
Also got stopped on /tf overnight for -8 ticks.
Funny how when things are going so badly, the next trade ends up being the best one in weeks.
I am not focusing on /tf closely enough.
/tf topped out at 817.8 -- just short of the 818 resistance area. No surprise.
noticing how there's always some kind of symmetrical pattern - either clear 3 touch or 2 touch before each and every powerful move in either direction -- /zb, /cl, /tf -- on almost every market.
/cl broke wedge and went 40 ticks to new o/n high.
5 min chart -- shows 99 MA firmly supporting each bounce.
strong market signals. with /zb sharply down o/n.
/cl up 1%, /gc up -- looks like another commodity day.
entire IBD leader list is green premarket...
/zb - double bottom so may not be going down anymore today.
DDD is hot IBD stock of the day. beat, raised guidance.
AKAM +9%
8:30 data -- /tf appears to have 30 tick swing in 3 seconds on data --
/tf 815.80 - sharp drop on data.
daily charts are all in confirmed downtrend. IWM moving to 200 day MA. Bear rallies can be fierce.
/cl - drops to the TL 86.20 - good entry? maybe on 5/34 xover? support - but breached. Market Signals weakening.
/6e in dt, /cl now in dt? 99 ma on top. sell rips....
very strong Market Signals. market up .7% premarket. TLT, VXX red.
/tf at 818.4 - R1. Should have expected that. No signs of weakness.
/cl - had a perfect entry - but again, the tight stops are killers -- have to give it the room. Lose more on these stops than bad trades.
/tf 818.6 -- now p/b. 99 ma showing the way.
/tf 821 at the bell -- then gap filling action now 814.50 -- had to be willing to fade strength. The very last thing most traders would want to do. At double top resistance.
/tf trying - but maybe bearish wedge?
because today was a gap up in a bear market -- it was correct to preemptively short resistance.
yes /tf - bearish wedge -- down to 813 from 821 -- gap fill almost complete IWM.
possible bounce /tf 813.8 broke DT.
now 813. Still dropping.
Gap up days have different moves. /tf is still up .15% despite 80 tick drop!
81.25 IWM -- gap fill? 5 cents left
/cl -- SYMMETRICAL TRIPLE TOP - AGAIN - BEFORE plunge and break of TL.
euro dying -- can't get long until there's a PATTERN.
PATTERNS form before moves. Almost always.
11:15 am -- dead time now. All the big moves are over. 30 ticks up, 110 ticks down. /tf.
/cl 3 bump TL - break-- now good for 100 ticks.
TLT / /zb gapped down to the open from 5 days ago - then bounced a point.
It's all about entering at the major sup/res. areas -- just waiting for a green light after the touch.
Best traders I know tend to make fast decisions. They are really good at holding winners. They tend to do the very opposite of what the market is doing during entries! Hmm. Maybe that's why they win. They are way ahead of the crowd. They are fading the crowd most of the time.
buy signal /cl 5/34 xover. /zb -- putting in a top...
market still really weak. What's the crowd doing? trying to buy a dip?
/tf new lows 99 MA - WORKS on a trend day.
chop and chop again AH.
Set a order to OCO at 86.58 -- and it was the top by 4 ticks -- now 86.39 -- for 78 tick overnight move. The stop was just 9 ticks away.
Also got stopped on /tf overnight for -8 ticks.
Funny how when things are going so badly, the next trade ends up being the best one in weeks.
I am not focusing on /tf closely enough.
/tf topped out at 817.8 -- just short of the 818 resistance area. No surprise.
noticing how there's always some kind of symmetrical pattern - either clear 3 touch or 2 touch before each and every powerful move in either direction -- /zb, /cl, /tf -- on almost every market.
/cl broke wedge and went 40 ticks to new o/n high.
5 min chart -- shows 99 MA firmly supporting each bounce.
strong market signals. with /zb sharply down o/n.
/cl up 1%, /gc up -- looks like another commodity day.
entire IBD leader list is green premarket...
/zb - double bottom so may not be going down anymore today.
DDD is hot IBD stock of the day. beat, raised guidance.
AKAM +9%
8:30 data -- /tf appears to have 30 tick swing in 3 seconds on data --
/tf 815.80 - sharp drop on data.
daily charts are all in confirmed downtrend. IWM moving to 200 day MA. Bear rallies can be fierce.
/cl - drops to the TL 86.20 - good entry? maybe on 5/34 xover? support - but breached. Market Signals weakening.
/6e in dt, /cl now in dt? 99 ma on top. sell rips....
very strong Market Signals. market up .7% premarket. TLT, VXX red.
/tf at 818.4 - R1. Should have expected that. No signs of weakness.
/cl - had a perfect entry - but again, the tight stops are killers -- have to give it the room. Lose more on these stops than bad trades.
/tf 818.6 -- now p/b. 99 ma showing the way.
/tf 821 at the bell -- then gap filling action now 814.50 -- had to be willing to fade strength. The very last thing most traders would want to do. At double top resistance.
/tf trying - but maybe bearish wedge?
because today was a gap up in a bear market -- it was correct to preemptively short resistance.
yes /tf - bearish wedge -- down to 813 from 821 -- gap fill almost complete IWM.
possible bounce /tf 813.8 broke DT.
now 813. Still dropping.
Gap up days have different moves. /tf is still up .15% despite 80 tick drop!
81.25 IWM -- gap fill? 5 cents left
/cl -- SYMMETRICAL TRIPLE TOP - AGAIN - BEFORE plunge and break of TL.
euro dying -- can't get long until there's a PATTERN.
PATTERNS form before moves. Almost always.
11:15 am -- dead time now. All the big moves are over. 30 ticks up, 110 ticks down. /tf.
/cl 3 bump TL - break-- now good for 100 ticks.
TLT / /zb gapped down to the open from 5 days ago - then bounced a point.
It's all about entering at the major sup/res. areas -- just waiting for a green light after the touch.
Best traders I know tend to make fast decisions. They are really good at holding winners. They tend to do the very opposite of what the market is doing during entries! Hmm. Maybe that's why they win. They are way ahead of the crowd. They are fading the crowd most of the time.
buy signal /cl 5/34 xover. /zb -- putting in a top...
market still really weak. What's the crowd doing? trying to buy a dip?
/tf new lows 99 MA - WORKS on a trend day.
chop and chop again AH.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
WED. notes.
rally until 3 am -- data killed the markets -- or at least OIL.
/tf gave back to 815ish -- this is a value area.
FB +18% wow.
AAPL .76%
Some strength here.
long /cl on 5/34 xover after break and double bottom.
/cl -- moved up right away. Good sign. Stop raised. MAs are bullishly aligned.
/tf xover signal at 7:48 moved up 20 ticks still going...
FB +21% -- Market Signals are quite strong...
BA, PNRA, REGN, LNKD, most of the Dow looks solid.
euro popped up. /zb dropping fast. Trend uppish kind of day. Shorts on notice.
/cl triple bottom -- small timeframe -- long tails. And stopped for -1 tick. Ah was up 15. This is why I hate /cl. Always destroying patterns. Paper trade anyway -- seems like it's impossible to catch those big moves.
At least I'm not shorting FB like 2 tweets I saw. +26.77% now. CRUSHED.
bearish 5/34 xver /tf now. Today may be more rangebound. 99 MA trending up -- so this is not in a short term downtrend. More like 99 MA test at 815.7
If FB shorts had heeded my -- don't short why 99 is beneath, they wouldn't be short... yet.
It's not rocket science, but it is discipline and patience.
When 99 MA is flat -- it's chop mode.... so what can you do?
815.80 -- BOUNCE - for 10 ticks -- called it pretty close!
market popped 817.7 (818.40 target)
/zb to 147.10 which was double bottom.
euro touched 1.299
/tf 818.1 -- 3 ticks away from double top. Has to hit now...
818.40 -- and pullback instantly.
IWM - gap filll touch - -pullback 30 ticks to fill gap open.
long /tf double bottom 812.20 10 t stop:
stopped out - this was against my system.... lol.
99 MA on top -- trend down.
and /tf sinks to 810 -- 80 ticks off high....
Puke Candle at 809 /tf -- and wide range candle... bounce?
/cl above 99 ma
/tf -- trending up all morning - creating a clear TL -- touched 818.40 -- gap fill.... spike on the open then drop below the TL with 5/34 xover -- and that was the entry for 90 ticks. TL + xover + 99 MA break.. + resistance area touched. Combination of multiple signals.
The drop ended with the widest 1 min candle of the day on heavy vol.
It's not the xover -- What you really want to see is a TL formation -- this dictates the line of control. Then you can enter with clear stop area.
/tf - after bottoming - creates a 3 bump TL -- bounces. Market Signals were confirming -- was clearly going to move up from TL. Now extended off TL. 813.6
since 99 MA on top -- we must assume all /tf bounces are going to fade away -- bears in control on1 min timeframe.
/tf - back to this countertrend trendline touch. 4th touch 812.3
paper short the break of the TL: 811.80 - this is a continuation trade. 5/34 bearish xover too.
and fake b/down
although technically - looks like the TL was drawn incorrectly. 3 touch valid still.
/tf -- clear TL formed -- but now clear breach -- and 10 tick drop. Had to be very clear on drawing the TL.
99 MA is trending down -- so correct to look for shorts, not longs.
/tf: this is just a continuation from the bounce off lows -- so maybe beyond the LoD? that would be target.
/cl is weak and 99 ma turned down -- no reason to go long -- but many try...
/tf -- reverse double bottom at b/down level - and continuing path of 99 MA, sloping down.
99 MA -- keeps you focus -- cuz there are too many wiggles to tempt you to countertrade.
/tf formed a small triple bottom near 810 then 5/34 xover -- Signal 3: Divergence : now
99 on bottom on the chop day. But now -- dip buying ONLY. Bulls in charge. 12:40
/cl PUKE candle at 84.94 -- 30 tick bounce.... 5/34 xover. No 3 bump pattern.
/cl -- ends up running 90 ticks after PUKE candle. best entry is the point of max pain. always.
Ended up making a 5/34 xover and forming small TL before running (for 50 ticks off base)
So on a chop day: can safely ignore 99 MA -- won't matter as market keeps crossing back forth.
triple and double bottoms and TLs will hold weight -- entries at sup/resist. willwork. (i.e.: responsive trading)
So essentially 5/34 xover going against the 99 MA requires a TL, double bottom or triple bottom to confirm entry. above it does not. (straight TL break is good).
small b/o /tf 812.4 before FOMC meeting -- 99 ma below -- bulls in charge short term timeframe.
Mixied market signals.
/cl now has 99 ma below -- bulls in charge.
long /cl paper 85.70 on 99 ma test. trending up wedge b/o - bulls in charge: 10ticks out.
fomc in 15 minutes...
/tf folding down but /cl -- is now uptrending with 99 ma below....
at 3 pm /tf 99 ma got on top -- then it was just a matter of entering at the top ofthe descending TL. with tight stop.
/tf - perfect double bottom 809.2 -- then 15 tick bounce. Symmetry entry pays.
/tf sinking to lows... double top in the morning and 90 ticks to end the day.
basically 3 areas to enter /tf -- the double top at the open - andh then entry on xover, then triple bottom for 20 ticks... then long wait for descending TL -- 99 MA gets on top - and short at TL for 30 ticks.
looking for symmetry (support) and MA confirmation.
99 MA is good but must wait for trending market. Today's chop required more patience and a lot less reward.
/tf bounces to 811.70 at the close... simply tested the lows, caught stops and ran. Entries at the edges works well in chop days.
Must determine the kind of day -- then it's clear which trades will work.
/tf gave back to 815ish -- this is a value area.
FB +18% wow.
AAPL .76%
Some strength here.
long /cl on 5/34 xover after break and double bottom.
/cl -- moved up right away. Good sign. Stop raised. MAs are bullishly aligned.
/tf xover signal at 7:48 moved up 20 ticks still going...
FB +21% -- Market Signals are quite strong...
BA, PNRA, REGN, LNKD, most of the Dow looks solid.
euro popped up. /zb dropping fast. Trend uppish kind of day. Shorts on notice.
/cl triple bottom -- small timeframe -- long tails. And stopped for -1 tick. Ah was up 15. This is why I hate /cl. Always destroying patterns. Paper trade anyway -- seems like it's impossible to catch those big moves.
At least I'm not shorting FB like 2 tweets I saw. +26.77% now. CRUSHED.
bearish 5/34 xver /tf now. Today may be more rangebound. 99 MA trending up -- so this is not in a short term downtrend. More like 99 MA test at 815.7
If FB shorts had heeded my -- don't short why 99 is beneath, they wouldn't be short... yet.
It's not rocket science, but it is discipline and patience.
When 99 MA is flat -- it's chop mode.... so what can you do?
815.80 -- BOUNCE - for 10 ticks -- called it pretty close!
market popped 817.7 (818.40 target)
/zb to 147.10 which was double bottom.
euro touched 1.299
/tf 818.1 -- 3 ticks away from double top. Has to hit now...
818.40 -- and pullback instantly.
IWM - gap filll touch - -pullback 30 ticks to fill gap open.
long /tf double bottom 812.20 10 t stop:
stopped out - this was against my system.... lol.
99 MA on top -- trend down.
and /tf sinks to 810 -- 80 ticks off high....
Puke Candle at 809 /tf -- and wide range candle... bounce?
/cl above 99 ma
/tf -- trending up all morning - creating a clear TL -- touched 818.40 -- gap fill.... spike on the open then drop below the TL with 5/34 xover -- and that was the entry for 90 ticks. TL + xover + 99 MA break.. + resistance area touched. Combination of multiple signals.
The drop ended with the widest 1 min candle of the day on heavy vol.
It's not the xover -- What you really want to see is a TL formation -- this dictates the line of control. Then you can enter with clear stop area.
/tf - after bottoming - creates a 3 bump TL -- bounces. Market Signals were confirming -- was clearly going to move up from TL. Now extended off TL. 813.6
since 99 MA on top -- we must assume all /tf bounces are going to fade away -- bears in control on1 min timeframe.
/tf - back to this countertrend trendline touch. 4th touch 812.3
paper short the break of the TL: 811.80 - this is a continuation trade. 5/34 bearish xover too.
and fake b/down
although technically - looks like the TL was drawn incorrectly. 3 touch valid still.
/tf -- clear TL formed -- but now clear breach -- and 10 tick drop. Had to be very clear on drawing the TL.
99 MA is trending down -- so correct to look for shorts, not longs.
/tf: this is just a continuation from the bounce off lows -- so maybe beyond the LoD? that would be target.
/cl is weak and 99 ma turned down -- no reason to go long -- but many try...
/tf -- reverse double bottom at b/down level - and continuing path of 99 MA, sloping down.
99 MA -- keeps you focus -- cuz there are too many wiggles to tempt you to countertrade.
/tf formed a small triple bottom near 810 then 5/34 xover -- Signal 3: Divergence : now
99 on bottom on the chop day. But now -- dip buying ONLY. Bulls in charge. 12:40
/cl PUKE candle at 84.94 -- 30 tick bounce.... 5/34 xover. No 3 bump pattern.
/cl -- ends up running 90 ticks after PUKE candle. best entry is the point of max pain. always.
Ended up making a 5/34 xover and forming small TL before running (for 50 ticks off base)
So on a chop day: can safely ignore 99 MA -- won't matter as market keeps crossing back forth.
triple and double bottoms and TLs will hold weight -- entries at sup/resist. willwork. (i.e.: responsive trading)
So essentially 5/34 xover going against the 99 MA requires a TL, double bottom or triple bottom to confirm entry. above it does not. (straight TL break is good).
small b/o /tf 812.4 before FOMC meeting -- 99 ma below -- bulls in charge short term timeframe.
Mixied market signals.
/cl now has 99 ma below -- bulls in charge.
long /cl paper 85.70 on 99 ma test. trending up wedge b/o - bulls in charge: 10ticks out.
fomc in 15 minutes...
/tf folding down but /cl -- is now uptrending with 99 ma below....
at 3 pm /tf 99 ma got on top -- then it was just a matter of entering at the top ofthe descending TL. with tight stop.
/tf - perfect double bottom 809.2 -- then 15 tick bounce. Symmetry entry pays.
/tf sinking to lows... double top in the morning and 90 ticks to end the day.
basically 3 areas to enter /tf -- the double top at the open - andh then entry on xover, then triple bottom for 20 ticks... then long wait for descending TL -- 99 MA gets on top - and short at TL for 30 ticks.
looking for symmetry (support) and MA confirmation.
99 MA is good but must wait for trending market. Today's chop required more patience and a lot less reward.
/tf bounces to 811.70 at the close... simply tested the lows, caught stops and ran. Entries at the edges works well in chop days.
Must determine the kind of day -- then it's clear which trades will work.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)