Wednesday, November 7, 2012


triple bottom  /tf  at  5 min sup. area -- long for counterbounce to 99 MA -- risk 6 ticks.

breaking lower -- this was against the main concept of always trading with the Flow.

Market Trend DOWN day premarket signals.   Dangerous day to countertrade.

note how /es went above 1430 overnight.   Markets tend to 'superspike' right before the huge drops all the time now.   Waiting for 99 MA to slope in the direction of the trade captures profits with little heat.

/tf  813 --    Heavy pressure to downside..    MAs fanned out.

real IWM support is under 81    , now 81.38.    This is a VPOC on 15 min chart so may churn here, build up hope before 2nd wave down.

813 puke candle -- so now it churns here  815.3...   Target is 99 MA but low probability trades here - chop area.

Market Signals dictate whether chart patterns/rules should be followed.  /cl pushes above 99 MA - trending up -- but we must look at the context.  Trend Down Signals means we must treat a single market acting strong with suspicion.  And indeed after a single 1 min pop -- retrace.

And /cl  - new lows -- crashing.

/cl - was actually a great trade after the TL broke --   50 ticks within minutes and sinking fast.  Know the Trend,  wait for the pullbacks/rips -- reenter on the failure.

Context is king --  60 ticks after /cl broke its attempted push.

stops:  always adjust to current volatility.

Dow -213     Market Signals quite clear --  Pain.   but IWM under 81 --- MAJOR SUPPORT. 

In the hole now.

/tf 806 --   support at 800 now.

99 MA and Market Signals saying NO to countertrading.

still no PUKE from /tf  -- grinding lower --   iwm 80.50  major triple bottom  on 15 m.

AMRN -- still green.

Context:  Market Signals  Dow -303 !    These unusual days happen and one should be prepared.  Rules Still Apply -- but too often people think there "has to be a bounce" -- well, do the charts say so?  The charts, more than ever, (always always) will show you.  Even if the market is down 2% -- it doesn't have to bounce.  It doesn't have to do anything.

AAPL is down 3.5%  way under its 200 day MA.

see ppl getting long... why?  The market signals are extreme.   Dow -329.   This is several deviations outside normal...   mean reversion strategies should be put aside.

Puke Candles on AAPL and /tf  and /es

IWM -  touched 200 day on Daily Chart.  May chop here...

What if you ONLY went long above 99 ma and only went short below 99?

Puke Candles -- may hold the line.... chop now.

/tf  touched 799  a week ago -- so no surprises to bottom out just below 799. 

TICK showing positive readings....  ran out of panic sellers here.

Puke Low on /es -- really nice bottom nailed.

/tf -- up  TL established...    pushing into 99 MA.     midday chop.

Must Follow Rules Religiously at first.   Be Devoted to your Rules and Money Management.

Short  /tf  on wedge break --  Market Signals in my favor... /zb  breaks to new highs..  7t stop.
stopped out:  Problem:   chop time so stop would need to be much higher -- volatility too high today for a tight stop.

aapl 558   -4.2%  !!!   No safe stocks in a bear market.

/tf - pops over 99 MA -- short covering rally  of 30 ticks  -- small tail candle but still trending up.

so - Trend Down day Market Signals but now 99 MA leading the way UP -- with mixed signals... probably best to simply wait -- and enter a short lower -- when things line up again -- for now 99 MA is support... and to short early is going against the Basic Rule of 99 MA leading the way.

You should ALWAYS be either correct for a nice gain or wrong for a small loss.  Your money management rules keep you CP.  How can you not be when you follow sound rules of trend trading?

99 MA is beneath... so why do you insist on making up new rules/ or taking small patterns that are noise?

If Market Signals and 1 min chart are conflicting -- Wait for Clear 3 bump patterns or wedges -- chances are we are in a countertrend chop mode and there won't be a Trend anyway.

/cl to new lows but /tf stays flat.

/tf -- sinking here -- 99 MA trending down....   the Market Signals were too strong to overcome so Wedge formed intraday. 

and /tf  breaks wedge to upside at 3:30ish.   Strong Tick  short covering...

99 MA - getting under -- so supportive despite TREND DOWN signals....mixed up here.

99 MA now supporting  /tf -- no reason to be short -- break of wedge and forming base.

small consolidating /tf  over 99  while in a trend down day -- required a 3   1min tails -- 3rd one led to breakdown at the lastminute.

Once again -- we see 3 touches before the move.

 dow closes  -312.      /tf sinking at the close.  

When stuck in a range -- wait for 3 touches before committing -- fade the range on the 3rd touch.

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