Wednesday, October 24, 2012

WED. notes.

rally until 3 am -- data killed the markets -- or at least OIL.

/tf gave back to 815ish -- this is a value area.

FB +18%  wow.

AAPL  .76%

Some strength here.

long /cl on 5/34 xover after break and double bottom.

/cl -- moved up right away.  Good sign.  Stop raised.  MAs are bullishly aligned.

/tf  xover signal at 7:48  moved up 20 ticks still going...

FB +21%  -- Market Signals are quite strong... 

BA, PNRA, REGN, LNKD,  most of the Dow looks solid.

euro popped up.  /zb dropping fast.      Trend uppish kind of day.  Shorts on notice.

/cl  triple bottom -- small timeframe -- long tails.  And stopped for -1 tick.  Ah  was up 15.   This is why I hate /cl.  Always destroying patterns.  Paper trade anyway -- seems like it's impossible to catch those big moves.

At least I'm not shorting FB  like 2 tweets I saw.   +26.77%  now.  CRUSHED.

bearish 5/34  xver  /tf  now.  Today may be more rangebound.  99 MA trending up -- so this is not in a short term downtrend.   More like 99 MA test at 815.7

If FB shorts had heeded my -- don't short why 99 is beneath, they wouldn't be short... yet.

It's not rocket science, but it is discipline and patience.

When 99 MA is flat -- it's chop mode....  so what can you do? 

815.80 -- BOUNCE - for 10 ticks -- called it pretty close!

market popped  817.7   (818.40 target)

/zb  to 147.10  which was double bottom.

euro touched 1.299

/tf  818.1  -- 3 ticks away from double top.  Has to hit now...

818.40 -- and pullback instantly.

IWM - gap filll touch - -pullback 30 ticks to fill gap open.

long /tf  double bottom 812.20   10 t  stop:

stopped out - this was against my system....   lol.

99 MA on top -- trend down.

and /tf  sinks to 810 --  80 ticks off high....

Puke Candle at 809 /tf  -- and wide range candle... bounce?

/cl above 99 ma

/tf  -- trending up all morning - creating a clear TL -- touched 818.40 -- gap fill.... spike on the open then drop below the TL with 5/34 xover -- and that was the entry for 90 ticks.    TL + xover + 99 MA break..  + resistance area touched.  Combination of multiple signals.

The drop ended with the widest 1 min candle of the day on heavy vol.

It's not the xover -- What you really want to see is a TL formation -- this dictates the line of control.  Then you can enter with clear stop area.

/tf - after bottoming - creates a 3 bump TL -- bounces.   Market Signals were confirming -- was clearly going to move up from TL.  Now extended off TL.    813.6

since 99 MA on top -- we must assume all /tf bounces are going to fade away -- bears in control on1 min timeframe.

/tf - back to this countertrend trendline touch.  4th touch  812.3
paper short the break of the TL:  811.80  - this is a continuation trade.  5/34 bearish xover too.

and fake b/down

although  technically - looks like the TL was drawn incorrectly.    3 touch valid still.

/tf -- clear TL formed -- but now clear breach -- and 10 tick drop.  Had to be very clear on drawing the TL.

99 MA is trending down -- so correct to look for shorts, not longs.

/tf:  this is just a continuation from the bounce off lows -- so maybe beyond the LoD?  that would be target.

/cl  is weak  and 99 ma turned down -- no reason to go long  -- but many try...

/tf -- reverse double bottom at b/down level - and continuing path of 99 MA, sloping down.

99 MA -- keeps you focus -- cuz there are too many wiggles to tempt you to countertrade.

/tf  formed a small triple bottom near 810  then  5/34 xover --  Signal 3:  Divergence :   now

99 on bottom on the chop day.  But now -- dip buying ONLY.   Bulls in charge.  12:40

/cl  PUKE candle at 84.94 --  30 tick bounce....    5/34 xover.  No 3 bump pattern.

/cl -- ends up running 90 ticks after PUKE candle.  best entry is the point of max pain.  always.

Ended up making  a 5/34 xover and forming small TL before running (for 50 ticks off base)

So on a chop day:  can safely ignore  99 MA -- won't matter as market keeps crossing back forth.

triple and double bottoms and TLs will hold weight -- entries at sup/resist. willwork. (i.e.: responsive trading)

So essentially 5/34 xover going against the 99 MA requires a TL, double bottom or triple bottom to confirm entry.  above it does not.  (straight TL break is good).

small b/o  /tf  812.4  before FOMC meeting --  99 ma below -- bulls in charge short term timeframe.

Mixied market signals.

/cl  now has 99 ma  below -- bulls in charge.

long /cl  paper  85.70  on 99 ma test.   trending up wedge b/o - bulls in charge:   10ticks out.

fomc in 15 minutes...

/tf  folding down  but  /cl  -- is now uptrending with 99 ma below....    

at 3 pm  /tf   99 ma got on top -- then it was just a matter of entering at the top ofthe descending TL. with tight stop.

/tf  - perfect double bottom 809.2 -- then 15 tick bounce.  Symmetry entry pays.

/tf sinking to lows...   double top in the morning and 90 ticks to end the day.

basically 3 areas to enter /tf -- the double top at the open - andh then entry on xover, then triple bottom for 20 ticks... then long wait for descending TL  -- 99 MA gets on top - and short at TL for 30 ticks.

looking for symmetry (support) and MA confirmation.

99 MA is good but must wait for trending market.  Today's chop required more patience and a lot less reward.

/tf bounces to 811.70 at the close...  simply tested the lows, caught stops and ran.  Entries at the edges works well in chop days.

Must determine the kind of day -- then it's clear which trades will work. 

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