Friday, October 26, 2012

FRIDAY patterns:

tf  lower overnight but clear pattern developed:  1 to 7 am was a 3 touch flat support line and right around 7 am -- a test back to 810 for 30 ticks.   This is the same basing pattern that takes place again and again. 

Market probes for value.    VPOC is 812 on 5 min candles so that would be possible target.

AAPL reported -- crashed but now green at premarket.

/es at 1400 --

it's opex friday - so usually no range for last 2 hours.

/cl also established TL from 2 - 6:45 am and then a fast move.

The establishment of TLs after a sharp move precedes almost all sizeable moves.

EXPE +17%

at 7:15 -- 99 MA got on bottom -- then 80 ticks up --- 34 MA held up never breached the whole way.

IWM  82.34 is 10 day MA  on daily -- so /tf could potentially spike much higher on bear rally.

820 /tf  seems very far away -- but would be below 10 day MA daily on IWM.  Must know what's possible.

819.3 is VAH on  5 min chart  /tf.  So that is certainly realistic.

/cl  broke out of DT on 5 min chart.   air pocket above if it runs.
5/34 xover on /tf   1 min chart - looking for a short here for 15 ticks vs. 9 stop. on p/b to 99 MA.

short  /6e  1.2954 -- double top  on bank news ...   stretched.  price seeking away from value

/6e  - working - short at resistance.   . closed for +19 ticks  near 99 MA cover.  That was a good trade.

faded the crowded -- but not early!    incredibly  /6e - now bouncing up -- caught it almost perfect.

You are LOOKING For Trend Lines / Patterns -- wait -- they keep appearing

/tf -- 100 tick swing -- almost touched morning b/o level -- IWM 80.9 ---  feels oversold but no pattern of interest yet.  no double bottom, no triple.   But looking for it.   No need to be early.

Market Signals weak,  /zb rising.  and no Pattern at lows = still stay short or stay cash.

/tf -  so small triple bottom forms and pop but only to 81 -- and immediately failing again.  I really traded TNA for .10 which was a miracle.   That pattern was TOO SMALL --

significant moves require bases of at least several hours.

Again, my PLAN needs the 99 MA to be going in the same direction.  If not, all you can hope for is scalps.

/tf   xover     IWM 81 -- probably pin area  --  Friday's act weird.   But this is where you could try for a countertrade  into the 99 MA at 810.3 -- almost there.    And target HIT.  AND ,  fades immediately - that was to the tick, again.

/tf  sinks to 804 --  99 MA showing the way.   Entering breakdowns of 3 touch bases (when 99 MA is going that way) is usually a good trade.   

804  - PUKE candle.  So looking for multi-hour base

QQQ touched 200 day MA -- so it could bounce and pick up rest of indices or else they all catch up.

Tip: If you are struggling, say your trading plan out loud.... if it's hard to say it, work on it until it's not.

sideways action is not the same as going up -- that's why there are signals to rely on to keep you from NOT trading.

/tf  basing here -- it's almost been 1 hour.    20 ticks above the Puke Candle to 804.  Still hasn't been a 3 touch TL which is required to get long.

/tf -- there is a 5/34 xover.    /tf  rises into 99 MA  807...  looks bouncy here.

the move from 806 to 818 required a SIX HOUR base.  So maybe a half hour base is good for a 10 tick rally.  That might be a good rule of thumb.  If you want a big move, you want big base (and I cannot lie).

AAPL did have a more distinct triple bottom -- entry on next 5/34 xover was good for a nice rip.

.tf did not

/tf  - wedge complete -- now bounce or b/down?   26 ticks possible - to bounce to last break down area.  But Market Signals weakening.

LONG SIGNAL - /tf    1:31

And YES! - /tf does indeed run 26 ticks from b/o level.  What would be more genius now - is if it faded right here.  806 to 808.60 

As soon as the 3rd touch was formed -- a decision was made to keep breaking down or bounce, since we were oversold on  Friday -- bounce was very likely.  (AAPL had already bounced). 

out for nearly 30 ticks.   +$675 paper trading total. 

99 MA is now supporting -- TREND IS UP -- on shortest timeframe  /tf   1:39

/tf  pushed toward 810 -- which was a more powerful magnet - now back to 808.9.  A squeeze of course so needs to pullback and gear up for a new move if it's going to keep running.  810 will probably be it -- opex.

804 low was close to 803.7 low from 5 days ago -- one could have assumed it would fail there.

If someone is afraid of trading, they may be afraid of uncertainty.  There is no cure since all trading is uncertain.  You could trade a small amount (you should) and set your stop.  Each trade is not make or break.  So what are you afraid of?  Great poker players fold the majority of their hands.   Losing is part of the game, why make losing a source of fear?   Each small loss gets you closer to the next win.

and /tf curling back down. 

5/34 xover  /tf -- but 99 MA underneath.  This is NOT a continuation of the downtrend.  We are in an uptrend on the 1 min chart (in my book) so in reality -- this dip toward the 99 MA is a buy.

Since it's confusing - best to not take it either way.    Now got a 5/34 xover  BUY. So chop area. Still forming a base.

sharp bounce off 99 MA -- keeps you on the right side of the force -- back to the resistance area 809

bounce off 99 Ma -- good for 30 ticks to 811 -- wow -- 99 MA really working. 

AAPL -- BREAKING DOWN  2:45.  That's it.

/tf  810.3 -- well no surprise --   opex  targeting even number pin.  So really hard to get excited.  Chop for next hour very very likely. 

tried to short /nq early -- just got stopped 3x -- it was pathetic trying to hit the top.

/tf    60 ticks from buy signal -- 80 from low.   Hard part would have been holding it.

/es  /nq -- highs  both went green.  Hammer day.   

/nq - now 5/34 xover

/nq - dropped to 99 MA   recoverd half -- there is a huge price to pay for being early though.

/tf   810 -- PIN.   No surprise.  The overshoot to 812 was free money after the double top with tall tails on the 1 min chart -- that was a responsive trade.

spy/nq mostly flat ..  /tf rising AH -- -/45% --  outlier needs to catch up.  So pin doesn't hold.   812ish.

Respecting the 99 MA is a good idea -- never looked back after botttoming.

What I did well: focused on slightly fewer stocks.  Was patient.

What didn't I do:  Needed to hold the winners longer -- hold for target - or raise stop and let them run.

+$595 paper trading is respectable, should have been better.  But certainly shows progress.

What did I learn?  Markets can bounce sharply and if you see it, there's no need to settle for partial profits for being 100% right.  Ride as much as the wave to resistance as possible.  There will always be multiple signals before bottoms are made.  

Also realized how important long tails are -- often, quite often appearing at the bottom.  Use them, wait for them when considering a bottom formation. 

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