Friday, November 2, 2012


fri  chop is usual.

/tf fades to lows of overnight --  PUKE candle 823ish.

looking for triple bottom or  wedge break and small double bottom to get long.

now 822

821.50 --   15 min  TL is around 819.     10:09 -- may bottom out

5/34  xover on /tf in the morning -- this is all you needed.

Patience -- the setup only comes 1 or 2x a day... so why frontrun?  Why do anything else?

Once again -- the charts and patterns will never ever lie to you or lead you astray.  Your emotions and hopes and opinions will - every time.

small double bottom  /tf   818.2 -- now needs a small mini db  or  triple bottom to establish base.

11:24  will be  1 hour from LoD -- needs time to heal / consolidate.

double mini bottom is in.    very early though...

and new lows...   without a base... it's hopeless.

tried to go long /cl   despite being under 99 MA -- fought the trend.  Main rule violated.

10:42  - low for /tf

/tf  forming  h/s bottom

So often -- I'm seeing trends fail at the major sup/res. areas  on the 15 min chart.   This needs to be a more critical part -- integrated into the trades.  IWM is breaking down - but that's obvious on the 15 min  20 day chart -- there's no support here, not even on the daily chart.

bot UCO / on  xover  5/34     26.40 was a double bottom on 15 min -- major support.  target would be all the way back to 27.60  for  $950.

got crushed -- buying UCO. 

/tf  5/34 xover signal after a triple bottom...  long  819.2   paper.

/tf  bump to 820.3 -- 99 MA and pullback.

/tf  pinned 820.   Dead money rest of day.

/zb -- the gap down on the data was filled  -- opened at clear support TLT -- almost complete move back to unchanged.  This is a new TRADE PATTERN.   Fading major gaps into a clear previous sup/resistance area on the 15 min / daily chart.

goal:  To hold for large swings into the 15 min  sup/resistance area.  The 15 min sup/res. areas are the only places to safely initiate trades.   They hit, then wait for a double/triple bottom to emerge so you are actually going with the flow.

/tf - 815 -- collapsing     advn-decn  -1000      iwm high was into the 50 day MA daily - and then collapse.

major damage now despite half IBD leaders green.

/tf down to 813 --- 99 MA signalling trend down day  (despite gap up).  

/cl  broke to last support area.  

The problem with failing traders --- they don't have a clear plan.  They have a partial plan, but not a complete mastery of it.  So they hesitate at the moment they need to act. And miss the best trade of the day.  Then they try to compensate by taking  a lesser trade, which leads to further failure which leads to hesitation the next time the proper entry unfolds.  

5/34 xover  /tf -- but under 99 MA,  no Puke Candle,  no clear TL.

/tf -- double bottoming  - testing LOD

813.8  long - 10tick stop  double bottom.   near end of day. NOPE.    99 MA is the guide.  On trend days, especially, you need an absolute SOLID countertrend pattern to get long.

aapl  to 577 --- this is a huge fade  over 3.235  --- clearly a lot of people in pain.   

did poorly: I should be taking much smaller size...

did not follow the 99 MA which was clear and present.

overtraded/revenge traded.

did not follow plan.

did not chech Higher Timeframe for real support areas.  (they broke anyway).

/tf -- closes near 810....   total trend down day.   The markets spiked into major resistance areas and then retraced entire  post-hurricane move.  The key was identifying an exhaustion move -- and then maintaining a stop that would never have been hit. 

The weak trader keeps looking for reversals when in fact, the correct move all day would be to ask, when can I safely add to this winning position? 

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