Friday, November 30, 2012

Fri. notes

Wow -- saw the  TL set up in /cl

entered  premarket short -- and caught 22 ticks on a quick drop back to the TL.  Great read.


Pushing even lower too.

/cl --  touches below  overnight lows made at 3:40 am -- obvious now -- stophunt.

87.73 -- see if this holds for the next few hours -- in which case -- grindy chop action.


Market Signals weakening.   /tf   unch. now.

Topped out..

Target: 822  is 50% retrace of 816 - 828 run.


opex Fri:   Often   wide range action in first half hour -- play in the range rest of the day... but most rules don't apply past 2 weeks.

$NAMO +60 -- this is major pullback range.   We are extended on daily charts.  

/cl - Indeed -- grinds back up to 88.13 in sloppy action.  

end of month  - opex -- so prevailing winds could keep markets elevated - but sharp drop on Monday?   


weak Market Signals --  /tf   at 50% retrace.

/tf  overnight lows....       IWM 82

IWM --- 15 min. TL broke. 


/cl   SPIKES  to stophunt  doubletop -- great   R:R  short  with tight stop.  Why not?

If you just thought like a MM -- and considered how far you'd want to push to trigger stop orders... you could find perfect entries almost every day.

/tf -- well   smooth trend whoosh from 828 to 818 -- 100 ticks....  how could you capture most of this?


o
If you're looking for these moves - you just keep a trailing stop -- either you get it or it chops and you don't. 

Your system MUST have a way to allow winners to run and get out of losers fast.  If your wins are small... you can't make it.

I think for me -- I keep looking at 5 min charts because I need bigger swings on small account.

So looking for  Classic  top/bottom patterns and holding into the sup/resist. area that's my target.


opex  pinning:    typical Fri. afternoon.  

rip after the close -- end of month.    Close green.

/tf - creates a nice triple bottom before ripping 40 ticks -- same pattern over and over. 

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Thurs:

strong market signals means:  only a MAJOR sell signal set up for a short.

Should be looking for small bounce patterns.  /tf may take out stops at highs at close

Tech strong. 


Too many shorts getting hunted. 

/tf minor high -  823 -- just went through and reversal candle --  nice stophunt.


close near highs...

Opportunities in morning -- the set ups are only there once a day usually so take 'em and get the most of it.  Most of afternoon chop-waste.   No reason to be involved.


See your set up -- take it.   Have fib levels set.  

Prepare for triple tops at resistance and take the smooth ride.

If you're sitting there all day... it's just a waste of time.  The key levels are always there waiting to get hit.

problems:

Why do 90% of traders fail?


What is the key issue?  Probably many issues.


I think one main issue is clearly defined rules and consistency.

Rules are established and then it's easy to break them, frontrun your own signals in an attempt to get a better price or get out at a better exit.

Eventually, a trader is filled with uncertainty.  What do I do?  I'm afraid to act.  The trader is afraid of what the market will do. 

But no -- the trader is really afraid of what the trader will do.

Will I freeze this time and hold a huge loss? 

If you define your loss ahead of time and know what your signals are, what are you afraid of?

You will lose sometimes and win sometimes.  The market will always be uncontrollable so worrying about it is a waste of time.  And makes no sense.

You have to focus always on your plan. If you trust that you will act the same way every day.  Following systems, honoring stops, entering on clear signals, then the profits take care of themselves.

The seasoned trader probably does not think much about profits at all, especially during the trading day.

If you are struggling with fear/uncertainty.  Go back to your plan.  Can you clearly define it?  Can you explain it to another person? 

The uncertainty can be eliminated, but first you have to accept that it's coming from you, not the market.


Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Wed 28 NOV:

Using 5 min. candle charts today:


long /cl 86.48 on doji 5 min candle near previous support  15 tick stop. High vol. on the doji.

But premarket weak.

/tf 804
/es 1392

looks like EWG -  -8% ???

GMCR  22%
NBR  - upgraded -- may be nice intraday.

/cl - ribbons fanned to downside on 5 min chart.  Should I wait for more confirmation?

/cl  breaks to new lows -- through the support area from a few days ago.  Obvious.  No reason to take a countertrade right near a clear stophunt area. Need more confirmation to enter.766

/cl dropping to 86.17  support area from 5 days ago.

euro sinking...

stopped again /cl -- trying to enter way too early.   No  base to support a move.  Like trying to life a weight while jumping in the air.  Won't work until you land, plant your feet, take a deep breath... the setup IS the trade. The PRE-PATTERN gives the market the power to lift.

aapl  -1.3% premarket.

/cl  dropping further -- almost 100 ticks.   No base

dragonfly doji  /cl  85.40 --  major support -- first green doji -- and 30 tick bounce.

trend down Market Signals --   be very patient -- may not bounce at all today.  Trend Down?

/tf  bounces 90 ticks on bad news/ then good news -- wow -- that was crazy.   bounce took it too a clear TL formation on 5 min candle where it was correct to short.

Like the FIB LINES drawn in -- provides extra targets.


extreme chop -- 796  to 808+   KNOW YOUR environment.

Need to adjust EACH DAY based on volatility -- today is very volatile.  Hairpin moves with size.  So learn to speak the language of the market.

IWM -- double top on  5 min chart.  2nd top stop hunt.  May as well short here.  Either it's a top or or loss for $150.

well  -- 140 tick range   /tf -- very unusual.  Trend following with 1 min. charts would have picked up some of it.

Market Signals are mostly mixed.... really hard to know -- mostly short term traders involved.

/tf  just crawling...  over 810 now from 796 low!  99 MA showing the way.   Signals strong.

pullback has begun after 2pm beige book -- nice DT pre-pattern at 810

short /tf -- 5 min   3-touch pattern  8 tick stop   --- at 3:04

/tf - breaks wedge ---   trending up.  Have to stay with the flow to upside.

close at the highs ... was not with the flow psychologically.  Massive reversal day.  Have to accept anything -- follow charts.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Tues Nov. 27: observations:

FB  up 2.2% premarket. heavy vol.

/tf almost flat.

/tf  pops on  durable goods data -- reverses fast -- tricky and fast.

AAPL -- giving back premarket gains, almost red.

Mixed Signals again but yesterday market closed strong on weak signals.

Financials best.  Big tech leaders flatish but goog, aapl, tsla, wfm, lulu, fb still green slightly.

best to assume /tf will bounce at support areas -- growing bearish signals but still mixed.

/es  pullback to 1402.  AAPL  now  -.3%

/tf first sup.  806.5

Market Signals now close to trend down.

/tf  hits sup 1 -- rips to new highs  812 -- double top with LONG TAIL -- then drop to VPOC area 808.

low vol. rip - -took out stops

will make more money when you do less.

advn-decn flat,  tick flat --  /tf near vpoc area -- nothing to do here -- absolute worst place to trade.

806 - 812 -806 - 811 --  /tf  chopping for 50 tick swings...       hard to play but not impossible.   Need to be willing to switch sides quickly.

market firmed up  811.5 /tf --  advn-decn +650   tick stay above zero.

Refuses to drop.  tails above 812  --  FOUR TIMES.  Ceiling? 

clear triple top pattern develops  at 812ish area -- but market refuses to give up much.

Bought VVUS -- on strength -- supported above 10 day MA -- giving it .75 of room -- focusing on strength. 

Very balanced Market Signals at 810 /tf.   Market really just tested the 5 min chart. TL -- went as far as it could -- got tired at 812 on double top -- may stay in this range now as the edges are clear.


Rangebound day -- have to determine the range and be responsive... there is no other trade.

Trending market -- can buy breakout or every wedge break pullback.  No other trade.  

currently :  clearly mixed signals -- range has been established 806 - 812     ... 808ish is no man's land.

advn-decn +110   aapl red.  vxx green.   Market may be distributing.   IWM green but other indices red.

Clear  TL break and retest on 5 min chart  IWM.   No near support if it starts to sell off.

if IWM gaps down tomorrow - I'd think you'd want to short all rips -- we're on the cusp of a breakdown -- or pullback to 80 at best.

 Won't add more TZA  now -- only avg. up.

Sold TZA at the close -- got the best price.   Like futures, holding overnight adds uncontrollable risk.  But my thesis was correct.

Finding 5 min charts may be better way to find patterns -- go for bigger swings, be more responsive.  Switching to 1 min charts during trending markets for clearer entry/exits.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Mon Nov. 26

Futures down premarket.

/tf 802.5

99 MA leading to downside.

Market up 5 days in a row on light vol. coming into today.  

chatter on DECK  - strong.


First hypothesis is z-day, rangebound consolidation type day.   Market Signals are weakish -- but not terrible. 

I'll be looking to enter on 5/9 xover today -- play the ranges. 

/es just below 1400. 

/tf short - stopped for -3   tried  5/9 xover - anticipating rangetrade -- but bounced.  Hard to enter premarket on low volume.   Pattern/rules subject to fail.  Reenter - one last time.  keep the stop.  I lowered the stop which was a classic mistake. 

Market Signals pretty weak.  

/tf    new highs on weak Market Signals -- bizarre...    ???

/tf forming a wedge  805 -- break to squeeze or lower?  Market Signals say down.... but they don't always tell the truth.     weak advn-decn  weak $TICK.

If we rip higher -- it'll be a major surprise.  I would hypothesize we end up testing lows based on Market Signals.

FB  up 7%

/tf breaking down... from wedge.
/tf pops back to 805 -- POWERFULLY STRONG -- no patterns just a lot of chop.  Taking out stops. 

data at 10:30 - -might be frontrunning good news -- 4 min. to go.   Flat here.   That would explain bizarre strength.

/tf --  no movement  chop at 804-805 -- but looks vulnerable to whoosh down.   Can't see a clear pre-pattern though.

FB, DECK, DDD leaders.

5/34 xover  /tf -- down to 803 -- now looking weak.  short /tf  with 8 tick stop at 804.

/tf -- now 801.20 -- 5/34 xover was alll it took... 27 ticks and still dropping on heavy TICK.

So weak Market Signals were reliable -- but needed to wait a while for 5/34 xover to confirm and provide easy trend down.  Now -- probably correct to hold through small corrections and ride it short. 

/cl - nice mini triple bottom at 11:28 - marked the low.  Little Pre-patterns form before real trends.

small triple top and 5/34 xover  /tf  at 1:11  --  trying a short here.    H/S pattern on 15 min. chart as well.

AAPL  5/34 xover -- first time in hours after small double top. 
AAPL - back to highs - now a triple top.   Very strong... perhaps will keep running.  Probably a bad idea to short 588.  Too obivious even though it's nearly vertical.

AAPL - new triple bump - much cleaner - slanting down - now a break of TL.


on 5 min chart -- we are at a clear VPOC area -- really not a good place to do anything.

Today is a test of patience.

indices mixed.   Really no trend here except the big tech names - ebay new 52wk. high.  amzn, aapl.  Have to be in select names today to catch a run.

TICK hovering near zero...   don't get lulled into making a boredom trade.

and a rip into the close -- just didn't expect it all the way to 808.8 - nearly 20 tick surge 30 seconds AFTER the close -- 99 ma was pointing the way.  Just had to be willing to go with the flow.


Monday, November 19, 2012

Mon Nov 19:

futures up premarket

/tf  to 780 -- this is a moderate  resistance area.

/cl up to 88.

pre-holiday usually bullish but now 200 ticks off Fri lows...

so expecting significantly lower volume and volatility -- especially after Fri. huge move.


Digest and consolidate but bullish bias.

AAPL up to 535 on upgrades.
SINA up 8%
BMTI -- buyout for over 100% premium.
FB  +2.8% 

oil up strong. 

new highs -- pushing strong.   781.2 /tf
782.9 --  FIB LEVEL created using Daily Chart -- be amazing to see this hit.

and 782.9 HITS. at 8:58. on Puke Candle --  top?

/cl up 100 ticks,  /tf  783.50    IWM  83.40 -- touches top of 15 min channel.  Major resistance here...  but no short patterns developing.  

TREND UP DAY -- but gap up opens are different -- usually a trap to get long.

Trend Up Signals -- 
advn-decn 2150 --  HUGE.

Slight p/b  but Trend Up Signals prevent getting short   786  /tf  at 10:43.  

correct action is to keep getting long all b/o of wedge p/bs/

all sectors green, IbD list 99% green, euro rip, /zb red -- Trend Up Signals should essentially be a 'NO SHORT' policy on the day.  Although -- looks like a wedge is forming and breaking in /tf.

very tight range now -- not much to be done here.

Dow +160  pretty typical - oversold into holiday weekend.  Not much selling to reverse it either.

With 99 MA supporting a Trend Up Day -- the ONLY trade to take is dip-buying.


If you are trading for a living, you are probably constantly trying to simplify your process.

/cl - rips to new highs - takes out stops.   from High several days ago -- very very obvious -- using 15 min. chart.

market grinding up -- no reason to get in the way shorting. 

3rd attempt /tf - to push to new highs -- Trend Up Signals is clear -- we may not make new highs, but we sure ain't going back down.    However -- now a nice triple top forming over multi-hour period.   The longer the base, the steeper the chase.  For now... still poor r:r environment.

/tf creeping up but advn-decn is weakening and $TICK is flat -- very noticeable divergence.  /cl also broke 99 MA after a huge run.

trying short on  divergent  TICK  and advn-decn -- responsive short here -- so only risking 12 ticks

5 min  triple top + 5/34 xover.  Really HAVE to take this trade because it probably WILL fail since we're in Trend Up Day -- but a failure would pay off at least 5:1 if Trend Day somehow fails.

Nonetheless...  the basic rule should be NO SHORTING on a day like today unless there are much clearer divergent signals.    

/tf -- pushing up...  /es  above 1380 --  charts/signals say higher.  Dow up 181.  Is that "too much".  No such thing.  Bear market rallies are fierce for a reason.  Lots of fuel.

 /tf flat but pushing into the close.  AAPL  up over 7% !!!   best day in 2 years.   Major Buying.

IWM finally touches 79 -- obvious target.
/tf touches 790    from 760 on Friday...

/tf  closes OVER 791 -- right through VALUE area.   Bear squeeze.   Trend UP DAY was correct early on.


Sometimes you just got to go with the flow.