Monday, November 26, 2012

Mon Nov. 26

Futures down premarket.

/tf 802.5

99 MA leading to downside.

Market up 5 days in a row on light vol. coming into today.  

chatter on DECK  - strong.

First hypothesis is z-day, rangebound consolidation type day.   Market Signals are weakish -- but not terrible. 

I'll be looking to enter on 5/9 xover today -- play the ranges. 

/es just below 1400. 

/tf short - stopped for -3   tried  5/9 xover - anticipating rangetrade -- but bounced.  Hard to enter premarket on low volume.   Pattern/rules subject to fail.  Reenter - one last time.  keep the stop.  I lowered the stop which was a classic mistake. 

Market Signals pretty weak.  

/tf    new highs on weak Market Signals -- bizarre...    ???

/tf forming a wedge  805 -- break to squeeze or lower?  Market Signals say down.... but they don't always tell the truth.     weak advn-decn  weak $TICK.

If we rip higher -- it'll be a major surprise.  I would hypothesize we end up testing lows based on Market Signals.

FB  up 7%

/tf breaking down... from wedge.
/tf pops back to 805 -- POWERFULLY STRONG -- no patterns just a lot of chop.  Taking out stops. 

data at 10:30 - -might be frontrunning good news -- 4 min. to go.   Flat here.   That would explain bizarre strength.

/tf --  no movement  chop at 804-805 -- but looks vulnerable to whoosh down.   Can't see a clear pre-pattern though.

FB, DECK, DDD leaders.

5/34 xover  /tf -- down to 803 -- now looking weak.  short /tf  with 8 tick stop at 804.

/tf -- now 801.20 -- 5/34 xover was alll it took... 27 ticks and still dropping on heavy TICK.

So weak Market Signals were reliable -- but needed to wait a while for 5/34 xover to confirm and provide easy trend down.  Now -- probably correct to hold through small corrections and ride it short. 

/cl - nice mini triple bottom at 11:28 - marked the low.  Little Pre-patterns form before real trends.

small triple top and 5/34 xover  /tf  at 1:11  --  trying a short here.    H/S pattern on 15 min. chart as well.

AAPL  5/34 xover -- first time in hours after small double top. 
AAPL - back to highs - now a triple top.   Very strong... perhaps will keep running.  Probably a bad idea to short 588.  Too obivious even though it's nearly vertical.

AAPL - new triple bump - much cleaner - slanting down - now a break of TL.

on 5 min chart -- we are at a clear VPOC area -- really not a good place to do anything.

Today is a test of patience.

indices mixed.   Really no trend here except the big tech names - ebay new 52wk. high.  amzn, aapl.  Have to be in select names today to catch a run.

TICK hovering near zero...   don't get lulled into making a boredom trade.

and a rip into the close -- just didn't expect it all the way to 808.8 - nearly 20 tick surge 30 seconds AFTER the close -- 99 ma was pointing the way.  Just had to be willing to go with the flow.

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