Monday, November 19, 2012

Mon Nov 19:

futures up premarket

/tf  to 780 -- this is a moderate  resistance area.

/cl up to 88.

pre-holiday usually bullish but now 200 ticks off Fri lows...

so expecting significantly lower volume and volatility -- especially after Fri. huge move.

Digest and consolidate but bullish bias.

AAPL up to 535 on upgrades.
SINA up 8%
BMTI -- buyout for over 100% premium.
FB  +2.8% 

oil up strong. 

new highs -- pushing strong.   781.2 /tf
782.9 --  FIB LEVEL created using Daily Chart -- be amazing to see this hit.

and 782.9 HITS. at 8:58. on Puke Candle --  top?

/cl up 100 ticks,  /tf  783.50    IWM  83.40 -- touches top of 15 min channel.  Major resistance here...  but no short patterns developing.  

TREND UP DAY -- but gap up opens are different -- usually a trap to get long.

Trend Up Signals -- 
advn-decn 2150 --  HUGE.

Slight p/b  but Trend Up Signals prevent getting short   786  /tf  at 10:43.  

correct action is to keep getting long all b/o of wedge p/bs/

all sectors green, IbD list 99% green, euro rip, /zb red -- Trend Up Signals should essentially be a 'NO SHORT' policy on the day.  Although -- looks like a wedge is forming and breaking in /tf.

very tight range now -- not much to be done here.

Dow +160  pretty typical - oversold into holiday weekend.  Not much selling to reverse it either.

With 99 MA supporting a Trend Up Day -- the ONLY trade to take is dip-buying.

If you are trading for a living, you are probably constantly trying to simplify your process.

/cl - rips to new highs - takes out stops.   from High several days ago -- very very obvious -- using 15 min. chart.

market grinding up -- no reason to get in the way shorting. 

3rd attempt /tf - to push to new highs -- Trend Up Signals is clear -- we may not make new highs, but we sure ain't going back down.    However -- now a nice triple top forming over multi-hour period.   The longer the base, the steeper the chase.  For now... still poor r:r environment.

/tf creeping up but advn-decn is weakening and $TICK is flat -- very noticeable divergence.  /cl also broke 99 MA after a huge run.

trying short on  divergent  TICK  and advn-decn -- responsive short here -- so only risking 12 ticks

5 min  triple top + 5/34 xover.  Really HAVE to take this trade because it probably WILL fail since we're in Trend Up Day -- but a failure would pay off at least 5:1 if Trend Day somehow fails.

Nonetheless...  the basic rule should be NO SHORTING on a day like today unless there are much clearer divergent signals.    

/tf -- pushing up...  /es  above 1380 --  charts/signals say higher.  Dow up 181.  Is that "too much".  No such thing.  Bear market rallies are fierce for a reason.  Lots of fuel.

 /tf flat but pushing into the close.  AAPL  up over 7% !!!   best day in 2 years.   Major Buying.

IWM finally touches 79 -- obvious target.
/tf touches 790    from 760 on Friday...

/tf  closes OVER 791 -- right through VALUE area.   Bear squeeze.   Trend UP DAY was correct early on.

Sometimes you just got to go with the flow.

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