Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Tues Nov. 27: observations:

FB  up 2.2% premarket. heavy vol.

/tf almost flat.

/tf  pops on  durable goods data -- reverses fast -- tricky and fast.

AAPL -- giving back premarket gains, almost red.

Mixed Signals again but yesterday market closed strong on weak signals.

Financials best.  Big tech leaders flatish but goog, aapl, tsla, wfm, lulu, fb still green slightly.

best to assume /tf will bounce at support areas -- growing bearish signals but still mixed.

/es  pullback to 1402.  AAPL  now  -.3%

/tf first sup.  806.5

Market Signals now close to trend down.

/tf  hits sup 1 -- rips to new highs  812 -- double top with LONG TAIL -- then drop to VPOC area 808.

low vol. rip - -took out stops

will make more money when you do less.

advn-decn flat,  tick flat --  /tf near vpoc area -- nothing to do here -- absolute worst place to trade.

806 - 812 -806 - 811 --  /tf  chopping for 50 tick swings...       hard to play but not impossible.   Need to be willing to switch sides quickly.

market firmed up  811.5 /tf --  advn-decn +650   tick stay above zero.

Refuses to drop.  tails above 812  --  FOUR TIMES.  Ceiling? 

clear triple top pattern develops  at 812ish area -- but market refuses to give up much.

Bought VVUS -- on strength -- supported above 10 day MA -- giving it .75 of room -- focusing on strength. 

Very balanced Market Signals at 810 /tf.   Market really just tested the 5 min chart. TL -- went as far as it could -- got tired at 812 on double top -- may stay in this range now as the edges are clear.

Rangebound day -- have to determine the range and be responsive... there is no other trade.

Trending market -- can buy breakout or every wedge break pullback.  No other trade.  

currently :  clearly mixed signals -- range has been established 806 - 812     ... 808ish is no man's land.

advn-decn +110   aapl red.  vxx green.   Market may be distributing.   IWM green but other indices red.

Clear  TL break and retest on 5 min chart  IWM.   No near support if it starts to sell off.

if IWM gaps down tomorrow - I'd think you'd want to short all rips -- we're on the cusp of a breakdown -- or pullback to 80 at best.

 Won't add more TZA  now -- only avg. up.

Sold TZA at the close -- got the best price.   Like futures, holding overnight adds uncontrollable risk.  But my thesis was correct.

Finding 5 min charts may be better way to find patterns -- go for bigger swings, be more responsive.  Switching to 1 min charts during trending markets for clearer entry/exits.

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