Friday, November 16, 2012


Might be the best move of the day is over.

/tf -- bottomed out 5 AM --  ran 70t  to  VPOC on 5 min chart -- double topped at 771

/cl  had an even bigger move  160t -- 5:15 am bottom to VPOC area at 87.   now long tails up here.

/tf  entry signal was a 6:15 AM.

/tf  763 - testing lows of yesterday  --    some IBD names green    XHB green -- may be testing.

holding /tf  for a key target is necessary or you won't pay for the losers.

In a choppy day -- like most opex fridays -- early entry is better.   Use  5/9 xover at the edges.   Chances are the moves are smaller so need to enter closer to the pivot.

/cl takes out stops -- entry was 5/9 xover -- broke downtrend then backtested to 34 MA - which created the bowl shape.

shorted /cl  on 5/9 xover after  stops taken out on 5 min chart -- near high, covered at 99 MA test -- for 35 ticks.  Very simple trade.

the 5/9 xover will only work well in a rangebound condition.  Market Signals are clearly weak so this was a great risk to short an extended /cl

I should not have covered at 99 ma -- let a trailing stop ride it down.  Winners must run as long as possible. 

Now a Trend UP day -- so rules switch to wedge breakouts on every pullback to 34 or 99 MA.

possible trend up day rules:   if  /zb red,  /6e green,  advn-decn over 500, indices up.  IBD leader board mostly green -- auto Trend Up.

/tf  from 760.50 to 771 on the bounce.    resting above 34 MA, 99 MA fanned out -- Trend Up look.

a fade will require a very clear triple topping wedge. Market Signals are strong.

/tf -- been over 1 hour since the rally --  5/34  xover short signal?  Should you take this with such strong market signals?  Obey patterns/charts or Market Signals trump?  (By the time Market Signals turn -- it will be too late)

IWM  77 and bounce -- OPEX pinning -- so basically - the best opportunities are over for today.

wide chop but 770.80 still -- so correct to avoid -- no real opportunity now for trend.

Market Signals on Trend Up -- probably some people trying to short this close -- going into holiday week... deeply oversold.    Why not just follow Signals and follow the trend? 

774  /tf -- resistance on 15 min. chart.    high of day -- Trend Up Signals provide the direction.

MAJOR PUKE 15:45 -- usually a top signal.   gravestone doji.

Triple Tail Top -- near end of day -- really see no way market can climb higher.  But Trend Up Day is hard to short -- won't drop.

Recognizing a trend up day (in this case Massive Short Covering, but to the same result) is 90% of the game -- it determines the kind of trades that will work.  Entering b/o's after pullbacks works. 

crazy day -- but charts were charts.   Just gotta be mechanical every day in your rules.

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