Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Tues: 11

/tf gap up overnight... suprise??? ha.   to 833.6

shorting on paper at 832.7 after 3 bump pattern. 

set up Fib Retracement --- so target is around 828 --

/cl -  did a  61.8% fib retrace and now has broken the TL  - back under 86.

sold  /tf  - premarket  +11 ticks. 

Looking for a spike up in first 5 min.   But /cl  is giving most of it back -- nice tell it's not all roses.

/tf 828-- be funny if we touched this pullback target.

/tf   833.8 - -new highs -- TREND UP DAY    834....

too many shorts getting piled drived.

Need to recognize-- we broke out of the Range.  That game is OVER. New game.  New rules.

/tf - new highs   TREND UP DAY --  this is not rocket science. 

Trading is SIMPLE but not easy.   Traders lose by overcomplicating a simple system, striving for perfection, when all winning systems MUST incorporate constant losing.

/cl  85.31 -- was a stophunt double bottom from yesterday -- PUKE it up.

going against my clear read of TREND UP DAY -- why?

/tf  double top --   internals strong.

CRUS _  strong off downtrend b/o.  Will have to watch for entryswing.

/tf --  5 min candle -- TL formation to downside and finally a break to UPTREND line on 5 min/ 5day chart  /tf -- and bounce.  

The KEY pattern was the double top /tf.   After a puke candle.  

Keep it simple.

What I did well was identify the top --  had a good TZA entry.
What I did poorly was OVERTHINK my analysis and take off the trade instead of finally allowing a winner to run long -- right here -- where it would have wiped out all losses for the day.

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