Friday, December 21, 2012

Fri Dec. 21

Quad opex day.

Rules are different.  Expecting tighter range and last hour to be very slow on the pin.

Plus last night's flash crash has shaken up the landscape... so the rules will be completely different... which means a trader used to doing business a particular way should probably be extra cautious.

already see  /cl is flipping around with huge tailed 5 min candles -- clearly chopping up stop orders.

What are other traders thinking?

They are probably nervous and somewhat bearish after the big drop... but the time to short was last night.

/6e - breaks TL   9:20   1.32 -- MM lower here?

advn-decn -2000 !!!!!!!!!!!!   extreme

/tf -- bounce  over  o/n highs --  30 tick move from 5 min TL breakout at 839

stops must be based on 5 min charts -- can't drop it to 'protect' gains -- will end up losing on wicks.

highs/lows may be in after first hour.  Sandbox chop for 6 hours now? 

/tf  bounce to 845 -- this is 50% retrace from ystdy highs to morning lows....    balanced now.

That was it -- either you made money or you didn't.  Rest of the day is crumbs.

846.6  is 61.8% fib.

/gc  green -- 100 tick move. 

Follow relative strength.

/tf 844 is 50% retrace -- balanced.

enter /tf break and you're done early

/tf drops back to 38% fib....   see if it holds.

long /tf  after 38 fib touch.   7 tick stop.

advn-decn -1650  market rolling back down.

Get in on the 5 min TL as they develop.

This is a Trend Down Day.  Or is it?

So slow grind -- opex day usually not trend down.  But entire Watch List is red.

Sold INVN for chump change.

Key:   Know what timeframe your comfortable with.   If you're looking for multihour trends intraday -- 5 min. candles might be best.  1 min candles may only serve to create too much noise.   But if you are scalping 5 or 10 ticks... you obviously need 1 min.

multiday -- you're looking at 15 min candles and daily charts.

If you're trading for intraday moves and keep taking 10 tick profits early... you are trading in the wrong timeframe. 

 bot /tf  843  on b/o of 5 min TL -- got 12 ticks instantly on push to 844.6  50% fib line (IWM at 84) - obvious target.    Perfect read/entry and trade.

INVN -- to 11.10 -- patience required is all.

/tf  - up to 845  but long tail building --  now 844.5 -- 50% fib touch again.    IWM 84 .... no surprise.

now big retrace -- having that fib target got you OUT responsively -- waiting for confirmation means giving back nearly 10 ticks.

I sold some INVN at 11.09

opex close pin. 

not much else to do.   Follow the trading pattern that you can live with. 

/tf - whew  close at 847  -- extra burst  takes it back to the 61.8% fib  -- taking out stops... /es also double top at the close.   basically - you should be trading from 9 to 10:30 then break until about 2:30 and see if there's opportunity at the close.    don't need to be here all day - -just get the move and then get away from the screen.

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