Saturday, December 8, 2012

OPEX fri.

Keeping things simple -- this is the key.

First of all: there is no perfect plan.  That's all a lie.  The market is always adapting.  If a system was foolproof, it would no longer work as too many people use it.

There is only your awareness of what's currently happening.

In the past week - the market was stuck in a range, bouncing on fiscal cliff news.  Friday morning was no exception.  The first pop happened at 8:30 on NFP data -- and immediately pushed to the resistance area seen earlier in the week.  This was a high probability fade that one could have taken with maybe 15 ticks stop.  It could have gone higher.  Nobody knew.  But that's the point.  You never know. 

The fade however, was nearly 80 ticks and one could have tried a reverse at the support at  819 /tf.

Once you see a bounce, this is where you could draw in a fib level to figure out how high a bounce you'll get.  50% is always the obvious target and Friday - it nailed it almost exactly.  The rest of the day was choppy mess.  But lately, the mornings are big swings and the afternoons are slow grind.  This WILL change one day.  It has to.  But for now.  Your keen observation of price action will provide you with an edge.

/tf swing to resistance/support, 50% bounce and chop

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